Florida Derby attracts attention, Spiral attracts horses// Monday workouts// Updated future odds// Revised CTD Top 5// more

In recent years the Florida Derby (G1) seems to attract a lot of press well in advance of its running. With about two weeks and three key Kentucky Derby point races before the Gulfstream Park signature race, Florida Derby related articles dominated headlines Monday. Merit Man joined the probable list, Orb breezed a strong four furlongs at Payson Park, and Brian Zipse thinks the race will “rock”. In addition to Orb and Merit Man, the other three probables in the likely short field include 2-year-old Champion Shanghai Bobby, Holy Bull (G3) winner Itsmyluckyday, and Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) runner-up Frac Daddy. While Merit Man’s trainer Bob Hess Jr. admitted the colt is probably best at sprint distances, he divulged the strategy in the Florida Derby will be to take advantage of the speed bias at Gulfstream and steal the race on the front end. If that wasn’t obvious to the competition before, now they definitely know// While the Florida Derby may be the darling of the press, the Spiral (G3) at Turfway is the popular choice for horsemen who hold Derby dreams. As many as 16 contenders are pointing for the race, although 12 is the maximum capacity allowed. Kentucky Derby winning trainer Graham Motion has two of the four colts that could be shut out due to insufficient earnings. A full list of probables can be found in the article linked below// Dice Flavor, upset winner of the El Camino Real (G3) at Golden Gate will ship to Dubai for the UAE Derby (G2). That’s usually the wrong way to go when trying to get to Louisville, but trainer Paddy Gallagher’s thinking is to keep the son of Scat Daddy on the Tapeta racing surface// Bob Baffert announced Super Ninety Nine, who failed as the favorite in Saturday’s Rebel (G2), will race next in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) against stablemate Flashback. It’s an interesting choice seeing as both prefer to stay up front in the early going. Garret Gomez was aboard Flashback for the first time Monday morning when the colt worked four furlongs at Santa Anita. Baffert also mentioned Friday allowance winner War Academy will try the Arkansas Derby (G1) or Blue Grass (G1) April 13, Power Broker could return to racing as soon as early April in the Santa Anita Derby or Wood Memorial (G1), and Code West is Louisiana Derby (G2) bound. The trainer will also send out Govenor Charlie and Shakin It Up to Sunland Park for the Sunland Derby (G3) this Sunday// Updated future odds from Wynn Las Vegas and William Hill linked below and as always on the sidebar// I updated the CTD Top 5 by dropping Super Ninety Nine (who I’m not giving up on completely) and adding War Academy into the mix. Yes, it’s a flavor of the week type pick, but I’m not real impressed with any horse outside the top three and I feel War Academy has a lot of upside// more…

Articles:

16 Derby hopefuls under consideration for Spiral (Brisnet)

Dice Flavor, El Camino Real winner, headed to Dubai (DRF)

Orb heads full slate of Derby works (Bloodhorse)

Florida Derby gets new shooter in Merit Man (DRF)

The Florida Derby is going to rock (Zipse at the Track)

Baffert has busy weekends ahead as Kentucky Derby nears (DRF)

West Hills Giant pointed for Wood after toothache (DRF)

Trip notes: Rebel (DRF)

Kentucky Derby Daily: March 18 (In The Money)

Bullet train Derby platform: the 3:18 to Turfway (TwinSpires Blog)

Under the radar: War Academy (DRF)

Future Odds:

Wynn Las Vegas 3/18 (View From Vegas)

William Hill 3/18 (View From Vegas)

Workouts:

Cerro (IRE)- PMM- 5F- 1.02:80- B- 12/15

Crop Report- PMM- 5F- 1.02:80- B- 12/15

Overanalyze- PMM- 4F- 48:33- B- 4/35

Orb- PAY- 4F- 48:00- B- 2/12
Code West- SA- 6F- 1.12:40- H- 3/16

Power Broker- SA- 6F- 1.12:60- H- 4/16

Shakin It Up- SA- 5F- 1:00.20- H- 6/60

Govenor Charlie- SA- 5F- 1:00.40- H- 7/60

Tiz the Truth- SA- 4F- 47:80- H- 5/55

Belvin- SA- 4F- 48:20- H- 12/55

Flashback- SA- 4F- 48:40- H- 19/55

Carving- SA- 4F- 50:00- H- 38/55

Rankings:

CTD Top 5 (CTD)

Haskin’s Derby Dozen [with video] (Bloodhorse Blog)

Peter Denk’s Top 20 (Bloodhorse Blog)

Quotes and Tweets:

"Overanalyze now headed to Ark. Derby 4-13, Pletcher says. Abraham represents Pletcher barn in SUN Derby this Sunday"- Jay Privman via Twitter

"Ellis said Treasury Bill, 8th in Rebel, didn't care for surface. Said Talamo told him Treasury Bill "felt like he was running in quicksand"- Jay Privman via Twitter

Holiday Weekend Review: Southwest, El Camino, San Vicente recaps and analysis// Previews and PPs for Fountain of Youth and Risen Star// Workout summaries// more...

Weekend Derby Point Races:

2/18/13

Southwest Stakes (G3)

Winner (pts): Super Ninety Nine (10)

2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Fear the Kitten (4), Heaven’s Runway (2), Channel Isle (1)

Chart: Equibase

Beyer/BRIS: 101/101
Replay: YouTube

Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet / Courier Journal [thoughts]

CTD Analysis:

Rafael Bejarano moved his arms on occasion, but no action was really necessary Monday aboard Super Ninety Nine in the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park. The Bob Baffert-trained 3-year-old son of Pulpit simply toyed with the apparent inferior competition. Setting an honest pace and challenged slightly at the halfway point, Super Ninety Nine repelled all foes for an astonishing 11-plus-length romp in the slop.

Is Super Ninety Nine that good or was the rest of the Southwest field that bad? The answer probably lies somewhere in the middle. It would be a shocker if any horse besides the winner makes noise on the first Saturday in May, but it would also be shocking if Super Ninety has it that easy ever again. You can make the argument the race would have unfolded differently if it weren’t for the downpour an hour before post. You can also make the argument track condition was irrelevant as Super Ninety Nine towered over the field on paper. The fact is we won’t know until he faces more familiar names. We may end up drawing a line through the Southwest, or possibly highlight it as a key turning point for a legitimate contender.

Do we give up on Always in a Tiz, Big Lute, and Will Take Charge? Probably. They’re most likely not top tier contenders, but may have thrown in the towel once the mud was flying and it became apparent they were never catching up to the runaway train. Are second and third place finishers Fear the Kitten and Heaven’s Runway emerging stars? Probably not. They lost by over 11 and 13 lengths respectively after all, and previous form suggests they have no business in serious Derby trail races.

2/16/13

El Camino Real Derby (G3)

Winner (pts): Dice Flavor (10)

2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Nina’s Dragon (4), Counting Days (2), Carving (1)

Chart: Equibase

Beyer/BRIS: 88/93

Replay: YouTube

Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

CTD Analysis:

What can you say about perhaps the most irrelevant Kentucky Derby points race to date (aside from the Royal Lodge in England)?  The El Camino Real Derby has always been a quirky stop on the Derby trail given its disrespected northern California location and somewhat recent Tapeta racing surface. The fact the trifecta for the 2013 running consisted of three longshots who were not even nominated to the Triple Crown (thus ineligible for the Derby unless their owners pony up the late nomination fee) won’t help the cause either.

While post-race reports indicate the pace was quick thus allowing Dice Flavor to make a winning burst and second place finisher Nina’s Dragon to rally, it probably masks the painful truth that pacesetter and favorite Manando was simply not good enough. The opening fractions of 23:10 and 47:34 are not slow, but not brutal either, and speed was holding up fairly well on the track Saturday. The winning Beyer and BRIS speed figures of 88 and 93 respectively are on the low end for the Derby point series and the surface and field will keep the 2013 El Camino Real very questionable.

Updated Kentucky Derby Point Standings (CTD)

Weekend Non-Derby Point Races

2/17/13

San Vicente (G2)

Winner: Shakin It Up

Chart: Equibase

Beyer/BRIS: 86/92

Replay: Bloodhorse

Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

CTD Analysis:

Although the San Vicente did not offer any Derby points to the top four finishers due to its short 7-furlong distance, a small group of promising sophomores entered the gate in hopes of moving on to bigger and better things. Shakin It Up’s stalking one-length victory won’t cause his future odds to plummet (although they will drop), due to the low speed figure and his supposed distance challenged sire. However, the son of Midnight Lute ran a professional race sitting off the quick pace and making a well-timed move in the stretch against a field whose members we will most likely hear from later. Trainer Bob Baffert thinks added distance won’t be an issue and mentioned the sire’s distance problems had more to do with breathing capacity than pedigree.

The horse from the San Vicente most people feel has the most upside is second place finisher Treasury Bill. The son of Lemon Drop Kid was flying late once his big stride got in gear and he figures to move up when going two turns in his next start, most likely the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn. Steve Asmussen’s Caballo Del Cielo finished third admirably seeing as he was very close to the hot pace and faded less than two lengths from the winner at the wire. I can’t even write off pacesetter Belvin, who with a little more experience could harness his speed and right the ship. It’s getting late however, so these colts will need to take the fast track to Louisville.

2/17/13

Santa Anita Race 5- Maiden Special Weight

Winner: Govenor Charlie

Chart: Equibase

Beyer: 94

Replay: Bloodhorse

2/16/13

Gulfstream Park Race 9- Allowance Optional Claiming

Winner: Capo Bastone

Chart: Equibase

Beyer/BRIS: 69/82

Recap: Bloodhorse

CTD Analysis:

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up Capo Bastone won his 3-year-old debut Saturday in the 9th at Gulfstream, but the performance has been universally panned given the extremely slow final time and low 69 Beyer figure. There is hope considering it was his first race off an almost four month layoff, and the sloppy sealed track condition may not have been to his liking. However, you’ll be hard pressed to find him on anyone’s top 20 list for now.

News Summary:

Now it gets interesting. With the Southwest in the books, all Kentucky Derby point races from here on out (aside from wild card races) could essentially be “win and you’re in” with 50 points being awarded to the winner. A place or show could also give a horse already on the board an extra bump towards Churchill Downs. Entries were drawn for Saturday’s Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream and the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds. Preview articles and links to free PPs can be found below. He’s Had Enough was entered in both, but he’s definitely headed to the Fountain of Youth according to trainer Doug O’Neill// Graham Motion’s import Crop Report was entered in a turf allowance on the Fountain of Youth undercard Saturday// A slew of key workouts occurred over the weekend and a full list is below, including a bullet move by Violence Sunday ahead of the Fountain of Youth// more…

Upcoming Points Races:

Fountain of Youth (G2)

Gulfstream Park

1 1/16 Miles

PPs: Click here

Previews: DRF / Bloodhorse / Brisnet

Risen Star (G2)

Fair Grounds

1 1/16 Miles

PPs: Click here

Previews: Brisnet / DRF / Bloodhorse

Articles:

Fountain of Youth favorite Violence turns in five-furlong bullet (DRF)

Florida Derby hopeful Itsmyluckyday doing well (Brisnet)

Post will determine if Cerro runs in Fountain of Youth (Brisnet)

Pletcher team breeze for next engagements (Brisnet)

Palace Malice fires bullet for Risen Star (Brisnet)

Baffert runners have winning family outing (DRF)

Kentucky Derby Daily: Feb 18 (In The Money Blog)

Under the radar: Speak Logistics (DRF)

Haskin’s Derby Trail: Play the Palace (Bloodhorse Blog)

Winning worth more Derby points (Courer Journal)

Illinois Derby outside looking in (The Miami Herald)

The future of Derby futures (Pull The Pocket Blog)

Workouts:

Monday

Flashback- SA- 4F- 48:80- H- 5/21

Den's Legacy- SA- 4F- 49:20- H- 7/21

Proud Strike- FG- 4F- 50:80- B- 39/62

Crop Report- PMM- 5F- 1.07:14- B- 17/24 (Turf)

Orb- PAY- 4F- 49:00- B- 2/27

Sunday

Violence- PMM- 5F- 1.00:36- B- 1/43

Palace Malice- PMM- 5F- 1.00:36- B- 1/43

Carried Interest- PMM- 5F- 1.00:44 B- 6/43

Overanalyze- PMM- 5F- 1.00:51- B- 8/43

Delhomme- PMM- 5F- 1.00:51- B- 8/43

Majestic Hussar- PMM- 5F- 1.00:60- B- 10/43

Cerro (IRE)- PMM- 5F- 1.01:48- B- 23/43

Dynamic Sky- PMM- 5F- 1.02:02- B- 32/43

Normandy Invasion- PMM- 4F- 47:88- B- 2/74

Verrazano- PMM- 4F- 48:05- B- 6/74

Integrity- PMM- 4F- 48:82- B- 28/74

Honorable Dillon- PMM- 4F- 49:60- B- 41/74

Shanghai Bobby- PMM- 4F- 49:73- B- 42/74

Falling Sky- PMM- 4F- 49:94- B- 52/74

Dewey Square- GP- 5F- 1.00:02- B- 1/4 (Turf)

Purple Egg- TB- 5F- 1.01:60- B- 4/30

Code West- SA- 4F- 48:40- H- 6/28

Tiz the Truth- SA- 48:40- H- 6/28

Saturday

Hear the Ghost- HOL- 6F- 1.12:40 H- 2/11

Sunbean- FG- 4F- 48:40- B- 5/90

Departing- FG- 4F- 48:40- B- 5/90

Get Happy Mister- OP- 5F- 59:80- B- 1/14

Quotes and Tweets:

"San Vicente runner-up Treasury Bill likely to head to Rebel for next race, trainer Ron Ellis said. Owners also have Flashback."- Jay Privman via Twitter

"O'Neill said looks like he's coming to FOY over Risen Star with He's Had Enough who is scheduled to ship to Fla. tomorrow"- Mike Welsch via Twitter

"Nothing firm but Capo Bastone's next start could be Rebel, says @EclipseTBP prez Wellman"- Jennie Rees via Twitter

Dice Flavor upsets El Camino// Southwest entries and PPs

El Camino Real Derby (G3)

Winner (pts): Dice Flavor (10)

2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Nina’s Dragon (4), Counting Days (2), Carving (1)

Chart: Equibase

Replay: Bloodhorse

Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

Upcoming:

2/17/13

San Vicente (G2)

Santa Anita

7 Furlongs

PPs: Click here

Previews: Brisnet / Bloodhorse

Picks: DRF

2/18/13

Southwest Stakes (G3)

Oaklawn Park

1 1/16 Miles

PPs: Click here

Previews: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet