11 starters for Sam F. Davis// Algorithms gets 7pt Beyer bump// Dual Qualifiers revealed, does it matter?

A robust and intriguing field of 11 was announced for Saturday’s Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs.  While Reveron, winner of the Gulfstream Park Derby, was installed as the favorite at 3-1 odds the race offers many other angles.  If you like horses that have shown an affinity for the surface, you have to like Prospective who won the Pasco Stakes just three weeks ago.  If class is your angle, you could like State of Play who is a Grade 2 winner, albeit on turf at Saratoga back in September.  Ecabroni is a recent maiden breaker at the tough Gulfstream circuit whom many feel has a lot of upside based on his connection to red-hot trainer Todd Pletcher.  The full field with PPs, race replays and more can be viewed here // Entries were also drawn today for the WEBN stakes at Turfway, which is a logical prep for the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (G3)// In a rather big adjustment, The Daily Racing Form has revised Algorithms’s Beyer Speed Figure from Saturday’s Holy Bull to a 105.  That’s a 7-point increase from the preliminary number, and now gives him the highest figure in his class// Rick Dutrow’s King and Crusader could be headed to the Gotham Stakes (G3).  The colt is perhaps best known for being disqualified from a stakes in Maryland due to receiving lasix too close to post time.  Weeks later he won two races in four days, a rigorous schedule that is unheard of these days for promising 3-year-olds// Perhaps the most talked about Derby-related news of the day was the release of the Experimental Free Handicap weight assignments.  The objective for the Jockey Club panel is to assign weights to the best 2-year-olds of the previous year as if they were going to run a 1 1/6 miles race.  Hansen and Union Rags were the high weights tied at 126 pounds.  Some Kentucky Derby handicappers eagerly await the assigned weights in order to figure “dual qualifiers” or those that are both within 10 pounds of the high weight and also have a dosage index (pedigree indicator) less than 4.00.  Dual qualifiers at one time ruled the Triple Crown races, but due to numerous factors, including the recent trend of light 2-year-old seasoning, only 3 of the last 15 Kentucky Derby winners were dual qualifiers.  This year there are 13 dual qualifiers and they are listed in the article below (Drill is omitted from the list, perhaps because the author believes he is no longer pointed to the Derby)…

Upcoming Graded Stakes
Withers S. (G3), Robert B. Lewis S. (G2), & Sam F. Davis (G3) race page here. Includes PPs, articles, picks, and race replays for all entries.

Articles

Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3): DRF / Bloodhorse / Brisnet / TTimes

Fat or fit? Opinions may vary [State of Play] (Downey Profile)

Trainer Casse eager to get going (Toronto Sun)

WEBN Stakes: Brisnet / DRF

Heading into Lewis Liaison keeps winning (DRF)

Baffert holds the aces in Robert B. Lewis (Sports Network)

I’ll Have Another a wildcard in Lewis Stakes (Bloodhorse)

Withers win would boost Alpha’s status for Kentucky Derby (DRF)

The Jockey Club 2011 Experimental Free Handicap 3YO Males (Jockey Club)

Dosage Dual Qualifiers for 2012 Kentucky Derby (NY Post)

Early guide to Kentucky Derby prospects flying under the radar (DRF)

Algorithms’s Holy Bull Beyer changed to 105 (DRF)

King and Crusader may try Gotham (DRF)

Exfactor works good half mile at Fair Grounds (Bloodhorse)

Kentucky Derby Report (Brisnet)

Withers honors one of racing’s early icons (DRF)

Picks

Withers: Dick Downey’s Picks-The Downey Profile / Bloodhorse THS

Robert Lewis: Commish’s Picks-The Downey Profile / Bloodhorse THS

Works

Team Six- FH- 5F- 1.02:00- B- 1/2

Exfactor- FG- 4F- 49:20- B- 8/20

Right to Vote- 3F- 35:60- B- 1/6

Drill- SA- 4F- 49:20- H- 16/28

Exfactor questionable for LeComte/ Liaison zips 6 panels/ Alpha on better gate behavior

One thing I missed from yesterday’s DRF preview article of the LeComte was that Exfactor is questionable due to kicking his stall.  While I was looking forward to his stretch-out test, it’s probably best he’ll most likely scratch// CashCall Futurity (G1) winner Liaison worked 6 furlongs Thursday in a zippy 1:11 flat.  He’s still pointing for the Robert Lewis (G2) February 4^th// With the recent successes of turf and polytrack horses in the Kentucky Derby, 3-year-old turf stakes are getting a little more attention. Lucky Chappy leads a cast of eight in Saturday’s Kitten’s Joy at Gulfstream, which also features the highly touted Cozzetti// Alpha, the winner of the Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct and highly regarded Derby prospect, had a gate schooling session Thursday morning and apparently received an A grade.  He’s pointing for the Withers (G3) on the same track, which could also include two-time restricted stakes winner Swag Daddy// A little more news on Wednesday’s work from Union Rags.  Trainer Michael Matz said it was an excellent breeze and he’ll continue to tighten the screws for a late February start in the Fountain of Youth (G2).  That could also set the stage for a juicy rematch between Union Rags and 2-year-old champion Hansen.  Both are currently 1-2 on most early rankings, including Mike Watchmaker’s early top 10 linked below// Speaking of Hansen, his trainer Mike Maker gets a nice feature in DRF.  The low-key trainer who is notoriously quiet and even trains his horses in relative seclusion at Churchill’s secondary facility, may not be able to avoid the limelight if Hansen continues to march forward//Keeneland released their Spring Stakes schedule today.  The graded stakes for 3-year-olds all remained the same in purse money and distance.  The Derby Trail schedule is now confirmed. You can view here and also find a link to download a printable version.

Lecomte (G3)

Entries: Equibase

Link to pps: Click here (1/21 Dan and Sheila)

Picks: Bloodhorse That Handicapping Show

Rankings

Watchmaker’s early top 10 (DRF)

Articles:

Lecomte the next step forward (DRF)

Kentucky Derby hopefuls abound in loaded LeComte (Horse Racing Nation)

No sharing expected in LeComte Stakes (Sports Nework)

Medication dispute might affect status of Fair Grounds graded stakes races (The Times-Picayune)

Hansen’s road to Derby likely to begin in Holy Bull (DRF)

Maker rises to forefront with Derby contender Hansen (DRF)

Union Rags could face Hansen again in Fountain of Youth (DRF)

Liaison works a bullet (DRF)

Alpha aces gate-schooling test (DRF)

Cozzetti return to turf for Kitten’s Joy (DRF)

Early odds sometimes burn books (Ft. Smith Times Record)

Gettin’ Lucky in Kentucky (Hello Race Fans)

Works:

Brown Eyed Jozi- LAD- 5F- 1.00:00- B- 1/2

Secret Circle- SA- 5F- 59:40- H- 2/25

Speightscity- BEL- 5F- 1.02:20- B- 1/6

Liaison- SA- 6F- 1.11:00- H- 1/16

Notes and bits from web and Twitter:

LeComte drew a solid field of 13. Mr. Bowling very talented; Ted's Folly's won 6 in a row at Remington; Shared Property classy, but bad post- Steve Haskin via Twitter

Horse to watch from last week -- Spring Hill Farm, Pletcher--George Bolton. Looked fantastic; pedigree to die for. Bred by Spring Hill Farm- Steve Haskin via Twitter

Week In Review and Notable Performers 12/14 - 12/20

The CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park was the headlining race this past weekend, where Bob Baffert’s Liaison virtually guaranteed a spot for himself in the 2012 Kentucky Derby// Finally, the Derby committee has decided to allow up to four also-eligibles for the draw.  However, the AE’s don’t have a chance to get in once advance wagering begins at 9am on Friday Oaks Day.  This means an AE would have just slipped in this year when Uncle Mo scratched around 8am Friday, but the Saturday scratch of I Want Revenge in 2009 was too late// Harvard N’ Yale, a promising Euro, will be pointed to the Derby after a start on December 26th at Wolverhampton// Several early blooming 2-year-olds returned to races this past week.  Todd Pletcher’s Algorithms picked up where he left off by defeating promising Consortium in an allowance score.  He’ll point for the Holy Bull (G3) January 29.  Grade 3 winner Exfactor also notched another stakes win and is headed to the Lecomte (G3)// Nice article below on unlikely Derby hopeful Ted’s Folly.

Graded Stakes Review

CashCall Futurity (G1)

Winner: Liaison NP

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

Chart: Equibase Chart

Video: YouTube

Beyer/BRIS: 90/94

Wrap-up Articles: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

Notes and Thoughts:

-Just over 3 lengths separated the first 6 finishers and wouldn’t be surprised to see any of them move forward in their next race

-Liaison had the perfect trip sitting just off quick pacesetters

-Rousing Sermon was bridesmaid once again and just timed his closing kick too late

-Victor Espinoza on Brother Francis, lost his whip at the 1/8th pole

-Liaison was a $290,000 purchase at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale.  His catalog page can be seen here

Notable Performer

Dan and Sheila

12/17/11 Gulfstream Park Maiden Special Weight

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Chart: Equibase chart

Video: Bloodhorse replay

Beyer/BRIS: NA/82

Notes and Thoughts:

-Dan and Sheila makes debut a winning one at a mile on Gulfstream dirt

-Sold for $150,000 at 2010 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Catalog page here

-Pletcher indicated he won’t rush him and most likely will step up to allowance and not stakes in next race

Futures

Wynn Las Vegas 12/19/11

Graded Earnings List

Unofficial CTD List current as of 12/18/11

Notable Performers recent results:

Algorithms- 12/16- GP- AOC- Finish: 1st. chart

Consortium- 12/16- GP- AOC- Finish: 2nd. chart

Jack’s In The Deck- 12/17- LRL- MD Juvenile Championship S.: Finish: 3rd. chart

Exfactor- 12/17- FG- Sugar Bowl S.: 1st. chart

Brown Eyed Jozi- 12/17- FG- Sugar Bowl S.: 1st. chart

Empire Way- 12/17- HOL- CashCall Futurity (G1)- Finish 5th. chart

Drill- 12/17- HOL- CashCall Futurity (G1)- Finish 9th. chart

Majestic City- 12/17- HOL- CashCall Futurity (G1)- Finish 10th. chart

Basmati- 12/17- HOL- CashCall Futurity (G1)- Finish 11th. chart

Finale- 12/18- GP- Dania S.- Finish: 2nd. chart

Burning Time- 12/18- GP- Dania S.- Finish: 8th. chart

Non-Graded Stakes Results

12/17/11 Maryland Juvenile Championship- LRL- Winner: King and Crusader chart

12/17/11 Sugar Bowl S.- FG- Winner: Exfactor chart

12/18/11 Dania Beach S.- GP- Winner: Summer Front chart

Works:

12/14/11 Tarpy's Goal GP- 4F- 50:00- B- 26/38

12/14/11 Sweet Swap SA- 4F- 48:00- H- 8/23

12/14/11 Longview Drive GG- 4F- 50:60- H- 14/20

12/14/11 Daddy Nose Best SA- 4F- 51:80- H- 28/29

12/15/11 King Kid GP- 4F- 48:45- B- 13/20

12/15/11 Fort Loudon CRC- 3F- 38:00- B- ¾

12/15/11 Mr. Bowling FG- 5F- 1.02:20- B- 11/31

12/15/11 Secret Circle SA- 4F- 49:40- H- 23/30

12/16/11 Friscan FH- 4F- 49:00- B- 1/6

12/16/11 Battle Hardened PMM- 5F- 1.02:93- B- 7/11

12/16/11 Thursby PMM- 4F- 50:44- B- 11/23 (Turf)

12/17/11 Night Tide SA- 4F- 50:20- H- 34/38

12/17/11 Stephanoatsee FH- 5F- 1.01:80- B- 3/14

12/17/11 Alpha PMM- 4F- 48:79- B- 14/65

12/17/11 Casual Trick PMM- 5F- 1.01:01- B- 5/22

12/17/11 Il Villano PRX- 4F- 48:87- B- 2/30

12/18/11 Hierro SA- 5F- 59:80- H- 17/94

12/18/11 How Do I Win BEL- 5F- 1.00:52- B- 2/22

12/18/11 Seven Lively Sins FG- 4F- 49:60- B- 7/84

12/18/11 Ancient Rome PMM- 4F- 48:05- B- 6/63

12/18/11 El Padrino PMM- 5F- 1.01:31- B- 1/3

12/18/11 Optimizer OP- 5F- 1.00:60- B- 1/8

12/19/11 Class President FG- 5F- 1.02:00- B- 11/28

12/19/11 Stoney Fleece SA- 6F- 1.14:00- H- 2/4

12/19/11 Gold Megillah PMM- 5F- 1.03:02- B- 7/11

12/20/11 Prospective PMM- 4F- 48:24- B- 2/23

12/20/11 Coalition BEL- 4F- 50:00- B- 27/47

12/20/11 Fort Loudon CRC- 4F- 51:40- B- 8/8

12/20/11 Worthington SUN- 5F- 1.03:00- B- 15/20

Articles:

Algorithms impresses, points to Holy Bull (Bloodhorse)

Churchill Downs to permit also-eligible entries for Kentucky Derby (Churchill Downs)

Consider the Exfactor in Louisiana preps (Sports Nola)

Wolverhampton prep for Noseda Derby hope (Racing Post)

Ted’s Folly, the little horse has big name (Tulsa World)

No rest for the wicked as Ted’s Folly goes for seventh win on the trot in the Lecomte (Bettor.com)

Bluegrass field of dreams [Motor City and Sabercat] (ESPN)

Hollywood Futurity in position to alter 2-year-old male Eclipse Award winner (The Saratogian)

Canani and Calabrese’s claiming coup (In The Money Blog)

2-year-olds to watch 12/20 (In The Money Blog)

Sheppard in unlikely spot with Ever So Lucky (DRF)

It’s never too early to start thinking Derby (Louisville.com)

Summer Front as a Kentucky Derby prospect? (Zipse At The Track Blog)

Baffert dreaming big, eyeing the Kentucky Derby with Liaison (Bettor Blog)

Sugar Bowl winner Exfactor will point to Lecomte (DRF)

Pletcher showcases plenty of young talent (DRF)

Speed Figures

Top winning 2yo BRIS figs last week: Algorithms-100; Radiant Talent-99; Spirit Rules-95; Liaison-94; Exfactor-94; Wayward Sailor-92

Winning 2yo Beyers last week: Algorithms-91; Radiant Talent-89; Spirit Rules-93; Liaison-90; Exfactor-82; Wayward Sailor-74

*Source: DerbyContenders Twitter

Week In Review and Notable Performers: 6/27 - 7/3

Jack's In The Deck winning The Futurity S. (G2) at Belmont. Photo: Horsephotos.com

The Holiday weekend offered lots of action in the Juvenile division, including the first graded stakes of the year. Let’s get to it…

Graded Stakes Results:

Futurity S. (G2)

Winner: Jack’s In The Deck chart / video / Beyer: 69 / BRIS: 87

Trainer: Robin Graham

Jockey: Joe Bravo

Wrap-up articles: NYRA / DRF / Bloodhorse

Nothing like having your horse break his maiden in a prestigious grade 2 at Belmont.  That’s exactly what Skeedattle Stable’s Jack’s In The Deck did Sunday against a short field of 5 other juveniles.  Second favorite Team Six set the early lead but began to sputter into the stretch.  It appeared favored Tarpy’s Goal (CTD NP) was poised to make a move toward the front but he began to veer towards the stands.  That parted the seas for Jack’s In The Deck to split horses and hit the wire 4 lengths ahead.

Jack’s In The Deck is a son of Love of Money, a grade 2 winner at 1 1/8 miles.  The unraced dam is by Partner’s Hero who was best sprinting. For more info on his breeding you can read the TrueNicks article here.

While the breeding is modest and his stretch-out potential questionable, we’ll make him a CTD NP based on his big performance.

Bashford Manor S. (G3)

Winner: Exfactor (CTD NP) chart / video / Beyer: 82 / BRIS: 89

Trainer: Bernard Flint

Jockey: Calvin Borel

Wrap-Up Articles: Courier-Journal / Lexington Herald Leader / Bloodhorse / DRF

Taking advantage of a hot pace, Exfactor and Calvin Borel were able to begin the Bashford Manor Stakes in the back of the pack and slowly pick off the 6 challengers to win the first graded race for 2-year-olds.  Showing quick speed in his debut win, it was somewhat of a surprising tactic to hold him back Saturday, but it paid off and could pay off in spades further down the road.

He’ll head to Saratoga for a still to be determined race.  Quotes from trainer Bernie Flint were exuberant which is understandable, but confidence in the Breeders Cup Juvenile at this stage seems a little hasty.  The local newspaper even put “Derby 2012” in the headline, which doing so in July is especially premature. 

For more info on Exfactor and his breeding read the entry from June 14th here

Perhaps I need to see a head-on view, but it appears Sum Of The Parts was about to get going down the stretch just before Exfactor and Calvin Borel came into his lane.  Neither the chart or articles mention any interference, but I’m inclined to give Sum Of The Parts another chance in his next one.

Notable Performers:

Jack’s In The Deck

See Above

Overdriven

7/1/11 Belmont Maiden Special Weight: chart / video / Beyer: 100 / BRIS: 111

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

From the same team that brought us Uncle Mo (Pletcher/Velazquez/Repole), we now have a 2-year-old maiden breaker with the first triple digit Beyer speed figure of the year.  The blistering final time was less than three quarters of a second off the track record-- and Overdriven was merely flashed the whip.  Breaking awkward from the start he eventually came up to track behind J C’s Pride in the backstretch.  After the final turn he was encouraged by jockey John Velazquez to overtake the pacesetter and finish clear by 3 ½ lengths. It should be noted, while J C’s Pride finished a well beaten 2^nd, he was still 13 lengths ahead of the others and wound up with a high debut Beyer of 89.

Pletcher stated he was impressed with Overdriven's performance and will point to the Hopeful (G1) at Saratoga with either the Sanford (G2) or just training in between.

A $350,000 yearling purchase, Overdriven is a half-brother to Smooth Air who was a multiple grade 2 winner and Kentucky Derby entry.  His big scores came in distances from 7 furlongs to 1 1/8 miles, and along the Derby Trail he won the Hutcheson and finished 2^nd in the Florida Derby.

Overdriven’s sire is the successful Tale Of The Cat, whose runners have excelled at multiple distances and surfaces.

Note: The Pletcher/Velazquez/Repole tandem also had another impressive maiden winner in the 4^th race that day by the name of Zow.

Article: Hopeful the goal for Overdriven [Half-way down article] (DRF)

Hogy

7/2/11 Arlington Park Allowance Optional Claiming: chart / video / Beyer:85 / BRIS: 101

Trainer: Joel Berndt

Jockey: Florent Geroux

Hogy was able to stay undefeated by winning his second try at Arlington Park Saturday.  He allowed a speed duel to ensue up front and professionally bided his time before kicking into gear down the lane.  With the first 2-year-old stakes at Arlington still 3 months away, you have to believe his connections will move him to another circuit in the near future.

Hogy is the son of Offlee Wild, who was a fixture on the Derby Trail in 2003 by winning the Holy Bull and finishing 3^rd in the Bluegrass before ending up 12^th in the Kentucky Derby.  His most notable win would come 2 years later in the grade 1 Suburban at the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles.  Hogy’s damsire Petionville also tried out on the Derby Trail with a win in the Louisiana Derby before lackluster performances in the Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby.  He would later win the Ohio Derby at 1 1/8 miles.

2YO Non-Graded Stakes Results:

7/2/11 D. S. Shine Young Memorial S. (R)- Evangeline Downs- Broadway King chart

7/2/11 Totah S.- Sun Ray Park- My Homey- chart

7/2/11 Lincoln Futurity- Lincoln- Undeniable Cherry (F) chart

7/2/11 Frank Gomez S.- Calder Race Course- Mel Beach (CTD NP Hello Prince 2^nd) chart

7/3/11 Clarendon S.- Woodbine- Making Amends chart

7/4/11 Northwest Stallion Strong Ruler S.- Emerald Downs- Chu and I chart 

Works:

6/29/11 Stark Ravin Mad: AP- 4F- 47:40- B- 2/34

6/30/11 Canigotoo: LS- 4F- 48:80- B- 2/11

6/30/11 Banner Bill: WO- 4F- 47:00- B- 1/30

6/30/11 Majestic City: HOL- 4F- 50:20- H- 26/36

7/3/11 Lil Cherokee: CD- 5F- 1:01.40- B- 4/11

Other News:

Algorithms CTD NP, another Pletcher trainee, has been taken out of the training due to a left hock injury. He is penciled in to return to training around August (DRF).

Top 2YO Speed Figures*

Top winning BRIS figs last week: Overdriven-111; Hogy-101; I'll Have Another-97; Zow & Broadway King-95; She Digs Me-95; Making Amends-92.

Winning Beyers last week: Overdriven-100; Hogy-85; I'll Have Another-83; Zow-73; Broadway King-82; She Digs Me-74; Making Amends-76.

*Source: DerbyContenders Twitter

Notable Performances & Week In Review: 6/6- 6/12

This week’s Notable Performers are not an overly flashy group as far as breeding and connections, but proved themselves with quick sprint wins.  They also held off promising challengers that we may be hearing about further on down the road….

Hello Prince

6/11/11 Calder Maiden Special Weight: chart / video / Beyer: 82 / BRIS: 101

Trainer: Daniel Pita

Jockey: Jesus Rios

Hello Prince ran the fastest 4.5 furlongs of any 2-year-old at Calder this spring.  He led at every call and was able to fend off heavily favored Boltzapper.  He could possibly show up in three weeks at the Frank Gomez Memorial Stakes at Calder.

Hello Prince is sired by the now deceased Halo’s Image, a multiple G3 winner who also finished 3rd in the Florida Derby (G1) behind the great Holy Bull.  He sired multiple graded winners, including Southern Image who won the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) at 1 1/4 miles along with the Pimlico Special (G1).  Out of a non-winning mare, Hello Prince’s dam sire Doneraile Court also participated on the Derby Trail by winning the Nashua (G3), finishing 2nd in the Holy Bull (G3), and 3rd in the Tampa Bay Derby.

Article: Calder- Fast 2-year-old (DRF)

Exfactor

6/9/11 Churchill Downs Maiden Winner: chart / video / Beyer: 79 / BRIS: 96

Trainer: Bernie Flint

Jockey: Calvin Borel

As has been the case with these short distance maidens, the winner Exfactor took the field in gate-to-wire fashion.  3^rd place finisher Dullahan is a half brother to 2009 Kentucky Derby upset winner Mine That Bird. Although Dullahan was 8.5 lengths behind the winner, he is worth keeping an eye on given he was very green and never switched leads. Take nothing away from the winner however, as he improved in his second race dramatically under Calvin Borel.

Exfactor is a son of Exchange Rate, who was a Kentucky Derby entry, won the Risen Star Stakes, and placed in the Best Pal (G3) and Hollywood Juvenile (G3).  His most notable victory came in the 7-furlong Tom Fool (G2) as a 4-year-old.  Exfactor is out of a stakes winning mare by the versatile stallion Prized.

Article: “In The News” (Three Chimneys)

2YO Stakes Results:

6/11/11- TTA Sales Futurity- Lone Star Park- Winner: Lil Cherokee chart
6/11/11- Lost in the Fog S.- Golden Gate Park- Winner: City Route (Filly) chart
6/12/11- Willard Proctor Memorial- Hollywood Park- Winner: Majestic City (CTD NP) more info


Works:

6/9/11: Stark Ravin Mad: AP- 3F- 35:00- B- 1/25
6/13/11: Sum of the Parts: CD- 4F- 47:40- B- 1/54

2YO Speed Figures*:

Top winning 2yo BRIS figs last week: Hogy-104; Hello Prince- 101; Galex-101; Sherman Bartlebort-99; A Toast to You-98; Exfactor-96.

Winning 2yo Beyers last week: Hogy-72; Hello Prince-82; Galex-74; Sherman Bartlebort-69; A Toast to You-79; Exfactor-79

*Source: DerbyContenders Twitter