Chasing The Derby: Scatman

"John Sadler says if Keeneland gives strong assurances Blue Grass won't overfill, Holy Candy likely will scratch from SA Derby to run there"- Jennie Rees via Twitter

Spotlight on Union Rags ahead of Florida Derby// Buzz builds for Cigar Street// Bodemeister going to Arkansas// Secret Circle, Drill work

You can tell from the sheer number of linked stories below that the Derby Trail is getting serious. Many of the articles and videos have a singular focus on Union Rags, who will be the short priced favorite in Saturday’s Florida Derby (G1). All handicapper picks so far have him on top. Somewhat surprising is that several are trying to beat Todd Pletcher-trained El Padrino in the second spot. Take Charge Indy or News Pending seem to be the choices for the bottom half of the exacta. In any event, most everyone is hoping for a dominating performance from Union Rags to spark hype going into the Triple Crown season// Javier Castellano describes El Padrino as “laid-back” and seems accepting of the fact he gave up the mount on Union Rags to ride for Pletcher instead// Buzz is picking up for Cigar Street in Sunday’s Louisiana Derby (G2). It will be just his third race, but Cigar Street is coming off a 13 3/4 length maiden romp at the Fair Grounds which was as visually impressive as any win from the other Louisiana Derby entrants// Alpha is still on course for the Wood Memorial (G1)- as of now. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin hasn’t switched the plan in almost a week, which is a nice respite from the once frequent changes to the horse’s schedule. McLaughlin thinks Gemologist is the one to beat in the Wood. He and Alpha will most likely face Casual Trick, My Adonis, Street Life, The Lumber Guy, and Tiger Walk// Bob Baffert is out of the hospital in Dubai, where he suffered a heart attack earlier in the week. His assistant Jimmy Barnes said Bodemeister, who finished second last time out in the San Felipe (G2), will ship to Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby (G1). Baffert’s Secret Circle and Drill put in official workouts Thursday, with the former posting a bullet move in 5-furlongs and the latter going an extended 1 mile// Lucky Chappy continues to be the center of attention for the UAE Derby (G2) in Dubai. Much of that has to do with his Derby winning connections Graham Motion and Team Valor. He faces a tough challenge Saturday against several successful horses, includes Aidan O’Brien’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) winner Wrote// more…

Articles

All eyes on Union Rags (Bloodhorse Blog)

Union Rags a Brothers/IEAH pinhooking star (Bloodhorse)

Union Rags set to tackle all comers (Graded Stakes Blog)

Union Rags an imposing challenge for El Padrino in Florida Derby (DRF)

Race likely a preview of Kentucky Derby (Miami Herald)

Neck ‘n Neck a cause of own trouble (The Downey Profile)

Castellano rolls with the punch (The Downey Profile)

How far can Cigar Street go? (Zipse at the Track Blog)

Cigar Street wise guy horse? Arm Force scratched (The Downey Profile)

Alpha heading back to New York for Wood Memorial (DRF)

Bodemeister looks headed to Arkansas Derby instead of Santa Anita Derby (DRF)

Prospective is tough on Triple Crown Trail (Bloodhorse)

Lucky Chappy faces stiff test in UAE Derby (DRF)

Lucky Chappy set for UAE Derby (MichaelCompton.com)

Thursday’s UAE Derby notes (The Downey Profile)

Rosie goes for another rosy bayou win (Miami Herald)

Secret Circle drills sharp 5F at Santa Anita (Bloodhorse)

Field of 10 expected for Santa Anita Derby (Miami Herald)

Scatman works at Oaklawn (Bloodhorse)

Scouting the top horses and key prep races (DRF)

Searching for answers (ESPN)

For Triple Crown series to remain popular, a star must emerge soon (Washington Post)

Usual suspects train top Kentucky Derby contenders (Graded Stakes Blog)

Jake Mo nominated for Triple Crown (Arkansas News)

Usually reliable mutuel field may fail to cash in Kentucky Derby Future Wager (DRF)

Zoldan-owned horse to again run Derby (Cleveland Plain-Dealer)

HRRN gears up for big weekend (Bloodhorse)

Weird foreign Kentucky Derby horse name meanings (Yahoo!)

Hollywood plans big boost for Juvenile Stakes (Bloodhorse)

Picks

Florida Derby: Dick’s Picks (The Downey Profile)

Florida Derby: That Handicapping Show (Bloodhorse)

Florida Derby: Gary Stevens Picks (Monster’s and Critics)

Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby preview [video] (TwinSpires Blog)

Louisiana Derby: Commish’s Picks (The Downey Profile)

Rankings

Super Six Derby Pix (They Are Off Blog)

Works

Secret Circle SA- 5F- 58:40- H- 1/37

Drill SA- 1M- 1.38:00- H- 1/1

Longview Drive- HOL- 7F- 1.27:20- H- 2/5

Union Rags in good order, News Pending may get rematch// Updated Kentucky Derby future odds, rankings

Union Rags photo by Julien Leparoux

Michael Matz reported Union Rags was none the worse for wear the day after his Fountain of Youth (G2) score. The Florida Derby (G1) still remains the next target and will be the only race for Union Rags between now and the Kentucky Derby. Dale Romans was praising the effort by second place finisher News Pending and said the Florida Derby is a strong consideration as well. A decision on what to do with Algorithms, who scratched from the race with a splint injury, will not be made until later in the week// More news for Saturday’s Gotham Stakes (G3). DRF features Mark Casse’s Stealcase, who has already raced against several stakes winners in his maiden tries, including Hutcheson victor Thunder Moccasin. Check out the Todd Simmons piece from the Staten Island Advance about a morning stroll at Belmont that offers a different flavor and beat to your normal thoroughbred reporting// Updated future odds were released by Wynn Las Vegas. Not surprisingly, Union Rags plummeted to 4-1 as the favorite. Can’t see why anyone would take those odds in February, but many do// Out of Bounds had an extended workout at Hollywood Park Monday. He’s still on track for the San Felipe (G2)// Updated rankings from Steve Haskin as well as myself// I’ve also updated the CTD Contender page here. If you like updates to the site on Twitter you can follow CTD here or on Facebook here.

Kentucky Derby Futures

Wynn Las Vegas 2/27

Articles

Union Rags standing tall after Fountain of Youth triumph (DRF)

How high should we be on Union Rags? (Zipse at the Track Blog)

Union Rags Kentucky Derby favorite (Forbes Online)

After the wire 2/26 [video] (Bloodhorse)

Home sweet home page (ESPN)

Petals on the Path: On the way to the Gotham (Staten Island Advance)

Stealcase jumping from maiden to Gotham Stakes (DRF)

Spiral nominations spike up (The Downey Profile)

Tampa Bay Derby lands 38 nominations (The Downey Profile)

Under the radar: Scatman (DRF)

Castaway got better and better as a yearling (Bloodhorse)

Weekend review (And Down The Stretch They Come)

The Roses Challenge (Thorough-Graphics)

In Kentucky, 2015 Kentucky Derby winner could arrive any day now (NPR Blog)

Rankings

CTD Top 5

Haskin’s Derby Dozen [with video] (Bloodhorse)

Works

Rousing Sermon- HOL- 6F- 1.13:20- H- 1/2

Out of Bounds- HOL- 7F- 1.25:60- H- 1/2

Ender Knievel- PMM- 5F- 1.02:90- B- 9/13

Swag Daddy- AQU- 4F- 48:55- B- 2/8

Notes and bits from web and Twitter:

“Fractions for Out of Bounds. 48.80 to top. 112.80 at wire. Out to the bottom in 125.60. Best part move was absence of real pressure”- Donald Harris via Twitter

Speed figures from Southwest, Rebel already looks crowded// Union Rags vs. Algorithms looms// New Kentucky Derby futures, rankings

As the dust settles from a recent string of Kentucky Derby prep races - four in just three days - writers, handicappers, and fans are observing the trips of the also-rans, looking for a silver lining and clues as to which horses could improve next time out. Adirondack King, 3^rd place in the second division of the Southwest (G3), fits the bill of a sneaky good performer or possible future “wise guy” horse. Jockey Stewart Elliott claimed he had nowhere to run in the far turn and was forced to sit and wait in second-to-last place. Once Adirondack King got through the turn he was able to make a fast closing move for 3^rd, although still 6 lengths behind the winner Secret Circle due to the short stretch. Trainer John Servis will point the son of Lawyer Ron to the Rebel (G2). Also pointing for the Rebel will be 2^nd place Scatman, who set the pace in the Southwest and gave Secret Circle all he could handle in the stretch. Bob Baffert said he’ll also send a horse or two to the Rebel, but which one from his long list of Derby contenders will not be revealed anytime soon// Beyer Speed figures came back for the Southwest. Secret Circle bested his stablemate Castaway by a 10 point margin (102 to 92)// Wynn Las Vegas published updated future odds just after the Southwest. Castaway dropped to 35-1 and Secret Circle to 22-1// Trainer Larry Jones commented that both of his charges in the Risen Star (G2), Mr. Bowling and Mark Valeski, will hopefully sit just off the pacesetters Saturday at the Fairgrounds// Buzz is building for Sunday’s Fountain of Youth (G2), which will feature arguably the top two Derby contenders in Union Rags and Algorithms. Some nice humble quotes from Algorithms owner Jack Wolf who admits his horse benefitted from Hansen’s bad break and Consortium not taking to the track in the Holy Bull (G3). Michael Matz is very pleased with Union Rags’s physical and mental growth, but reveals the screws will not be fully tightened Sunday because the colt already has enough Graded Earnings for the Derby// Some updates on Steve Asmussen contenders Z Dager, Sabercat, and Daddy Nose Best from the Bloodhorse// Steve Haskin has a new Derby Dozen, yet still has recent San Vicente (G2) 3^rd place finisher Creative Cause at #1. Reading the description, I’m not sure Steve even agrees with himself// more…

Articles

Baffert will return for Rebel (DRF)

Adirondack King likely to stay for Rebel (DRF)

Scatman probable for Rebel (DRF)

Jones’s trio of 3-year-olds gear up for stakes (DRF)

Algorithms: Formula for success (Courier Journal)

Algorithms vs. Union Rags in 3YO showdown (Bloodhorse)

Union Rags earned luxury of easing into 2012 season (TTimes)

High energy Drill stood out as a yearling (Bloodhorse)

Three of a kind [Steve Asmussen contenders] (Blooodhorse Blog)

Looking back at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (DRF Blog)

An early look at the Kentucky Derby picture (Sports Nola)

23 races and we’ll make a big fuss (TwinSpires)

Tailgate-Illinois Derby and Hawthorne thinking blue (Hansen Blog via Courier Journal)

Futures

Wynn Las Vegas (2/20)

Rankings

Haskin’s Derby Dozen 2/21 [with video] (Bloodhorse)

TTimes Triple Crown poll (TTimes)

Works

Ever So Lucky- GP-5F- 1.00:65- H- 7/11

Big Screen GP- 5F- 59:60- H- 2/11

Optimizer- OP- 3F- 36:20- B- 1/2

Rousing Sermon- HOL- 5F- 1.01:80- H- 5/8

Stoney Fleece- HOL- 5F- 1.02:80- H- 7/8

Weekly Speed Figures 2/13-2/19*
Top 3yo winning BRIS figs last week: Drill-104; Daddy Nose Best-101; Sir Bond-100; Bling King-99; Scatter Joy-97; Points Offthebench-96

3yo winning Beyers last week: Drill-94; Daddy Nose Best-92; Sir Bond-91; Bling King-85; Scatter Joy-85; Points Offthebench-87

*Source: DerbyContenders via Twitter

Sections

McLaughlin worried about Alpha’s post in Wood// Connections for Street Life, My Adonis confident// Lukas trying to get back to Derby// Scatman, Najjaar work

Spotlight on Union Rags ahead of Florida Derby// Buzz builds for Cigar Street// Bodemeister going to Arkansas// Secret Circle, Drill work

Union Rags in good order, News Pending may get rematch// Updated Kentucky Derby future odds, rankings

Speed figures from Southwest, Rebel already looks crowded// Union Rags vs. Algorithms looms// New Kentucky Derby futures, rankings

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