Monday’s Kentucky Derby related news was enough to make your head spin,
and it’s still only mid-March// The Florida Derby (G1) looks to have a modest
size field of 7, led by Union Rags and El Padrino. Their presence makes the prep the most eagerly anticipated
yet// Bob Baffert confirmed yesterday Rebel (G2) and Southwest (G3) winner
Secret Circle will go for the Arkansas sweep in the Arkansas Derby (G1) April
14th. Baffert is
sending his other Southwest Stakes winner Castaway to New Mexico for the Sunland
Derby (G3) along with stablemate and recent maiden winner Stirred Up. They’ll face Todd Pletcher’s maiden
winner Ender Knievel among others// Todd Pletcher also confirmed Grade 2 winner
Gemologist will try the Wood Memorial (G1). He needs cash to make the Derby gate, but will have to face
champion Hansen and possibly Alpha in a tough spot up in the Big Apple// The
Vinery Spiral Stakes (G3) will be a crowded gate, with up to 14 possible. That cast will be led by John Battaglia
Memorial Stakes winner State of Play.
Trainer Mark Casse thinks Stealcase can improve in the Spiral off a dull
effort in the Gotham (G3), which he attributed to a bad start and speed
favoring track// 14 are also possible for the U.A.E Derby (G2) in Dubai. Only
six in the probable field are nominated for the Triple Crown, including Derby
winning connections Team Valor and Graham Motion’s Lucky Chappy// Ramon
Dominguez was the victim of an unfortunate spill on Sunday at Aqueduct. He has
a separated collarbone, but hopes to be back in time to ride Hansen in the Wood
Memorial. He is also the regular
rider for Alpha, but may end up losing that mount anyway if Alpha goes in the
Wood// Souper Speedy was declared off the Triple Crown Trail. According to trainer Tom Albertrani
there is nothing physically wrong with the Remsen (G2) runner-up, but they are
still backing off due to how he was not progressing in morning works// Updated
future odds were released by Wynn Las Vegas. Union Rags is still the favorite at 4-1, while Gemologist
dropped to a staggering 14-1.
Belated thoughts on the Rebel
Stakes (G2)- The fallout from Saturday’s Rebel Stakes (G2) at
Oaklawn seems to be a mixed bag.
While Secret Circle impressed his trainer Bob Baffert, entered into
several new Derby rankings, and received accolades for a somewhat new running
style; many skeptics point to the slow overall time and low speed figures. Secret Circle earned a 92 Beyer Speed
figure, which was 10 points less than his last effort in the Southwest
(G3). Although that may suggest a
regression, it could also be a welcome blip on the radar. The Rebel is a mid-March prep and Secret
Circle may have bounced at an opportune time. The Arkansas Derby should provide a better read on his
trajectory, however his new ability to sit off the pace only helps his chances
in a likely 20 horse field for the Kentucky Derby.
Articles
Future Odds
Rankings
Works
Rousing Sermon HOL- 5F- 1.00:40- H- 5/18
Stoney Fleece SA- 5F- 59:80- H- 2/10
Discreet Dancer PMM- 5F- 1.01:01- B- 2/27
Ender Knievel PMM- 5F- 1.01:01- B- 2/27
Neck n’ Neck PMM- 5F-
1.01:02- B- 4/27
Shared Property FG- 5F- 59:60- B- 1/21
Z Dager FG-
6F- 1.13:00- B- 1/7
