The Picks: Kentucky Derby 138

You can only watch so many replays, read so many articles, hear so many angles, and stare at the PPs until your eyes hurt, but the time comes to make a decision. Every Derby is tough, but this year especially seems to be agonizing with 12 horses I had difficulty ranking.  Here are my final selections:

Win: #15 Gemologist

It came down to who has the least faults? You can’t fault an undefeated horse who has won at Churchill twice around two turns, gets a favorable post, has a Derby winning trainer, has a top jock, has the distance pedigree, has shown an ability to stay behind the pacesetters, and has looked good training on the track.

Place: #19 I’ll Have Another

Don’t like the post necessarily, but think it beats 1 through 6 in this race, and with a lucky trip could be gliding right alongside Gemologist just behind the 3 speedsters.  Aside from Creative Cause, an argument could be made he hasn’t beaten anyone, but those two were well clear of the 3^rd place finisher in the Santa Anita Derby and he dominated the Bob Lewis before that. Speed figs in last 2 suggest he’s just on par. Looks ready to go during morning training.  

Show: #8 Creative Cause

A shaky pick, but can’t let him go.  Whispers of a hoof problem, but I doubt trainer Mike Harrington would run him if it really was serious.  A lot of negative reports from the mornings too, but that’s been going on since July.  Bottom line, this guys comes to race every time.  Never worse than 3^rd and never beaten by over a length. Great pedigree and suitable running style.

Rounding out the Super: Daddy Nose Best

Jumping on the bandwagon here, but has to be considered dangerous.  Won twice at 9 furlongs and looks great at Churchill.  Big class test, but speed figs suggest he can hang.

Scared to leave out

#11 Alpha

Despite skipping a planned workout two weeks ago, appears to be back on track.  If I’m all in on Gemologist I need to pay attention to this guy too seeing as he only lost by a neck in the Wood Memorial.  Running style and pedigree fit the bill, but he didn’t run well at Churchill in November. Could have been attributed to acting up in the gate, but not so sure he’s over that and will have to wait a long time for others to load Saturday.

I have left out the two favorites; #6 Bodemeister and #4 Union Rags.  I’m going on the assumption pace and crowd will do these two in. In the races where Bodemeister was restrained, he did not appear comfortable although he still finished a game second to Creative Cause in the San Felipe.  As a fan I actually hope he wins by daylight and proves to be the freak many are hoping for, but chasing Trinniberg and Hansen will not be ideal.

Union Rags meanwhile will not like getting sandwiched towards the rail, or even in close proximity to any of the 16 horses trying to get a shorter trip to his outside. His best races have been in the clear and oftentimes on the outside.  That will not happen Saturday.  

Good Luck and let’s cash some tickets!

Kentucky Derby Contenders:

Click here for 2012 Kentucky Derby PPs PDF

Click here for CTD Derby Addendum PDF

One-sheeter contains tons of ranked stats on speed (Beyer and BRIS) pedigree (dosage, TrueNicks, Tomlinson Distance Ratings), pace, workout grades, historical data (post position, jockey, trainer stats), and more.

1. Daddy Long Legs (30-1)

Pedigree: Scat Daddy/Dreamy Maiden (Meadowlake)

Dosage: 3.00

TrueNicks Grade: A

Jockey: Colm O’Donoghue

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien

Past Performances

Best Beyer/BRIS: 60*/81* (*speed ratings n/a for last race)

Race Replays:

11/5/11 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)

3/31/12 UAE Derby (G2)

2. Optimizer (50-1)

Pedigree: English Channel/Indy Pick (A.P. Indy)

Dosage: 3.24

TrueNicks Grade: B

Jockey: Jon Court

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

Past Performances

Best Beyer/BRIS: 91/96

Race Replays:

8/6/11 Saratoga MSW (T)

9/1/11 With Anticipation -T (G2)

10/8/11 Breeders’ Futurity (G1)

11/5/11 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)

11/26/11 KY Jockey Club S. (G2)

1/16/12 Smarty Jones S.

2/25/12 Risen Star (G2)

3/17/12 Rebel S. (G2)

4/14/12 Arkansas Derby (G1)

3. Take Charge Indy (15-1)

Pedigree: A.P. Indy/Take Charge Lady (Dehere)

Dosage: 3.00

TrueNicks Grade: A++

Jockey: Calvin Borel

Trainer: Patrick Byrne

Past Performances

Best Beyer/BRIS: 96/109

Race Replays:

7/30/11 Arlington Park MSW

9/10/11 Arlington Washington Futurity (G3)

10/8/11 Breeders’ Futurity (G1)

11/5/11 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)

1/29/12 Gulfstream Park AOC

3/31/12 Florida Derby (G1)

4. Union Rags (9/2)

Pedigree: Dixie Union/Tempo (Gone West)

Dosage: 2.14

TrueNicks Grade: A

Jockey: Julien Leparoux

Trainer: Michael Matz

Past Performances

Best Beyer/BRIS: 95/103

Race Replays:

7/12/11 Delaware Park MSW

8/15/11 Saratoga Special (G2)

10/8/11 Champagne S. (G1)

11/5/11 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)

2/26/12 Fountain of Youth (G2)

3/31/12 Florida Derby (G1)

5. Dullahan (8-1)

Pedigree: Even The Score/Mining My Own (Smart Strike)

Dosage: 4.20

TrueNicks Grade: A++

Jockey: Kent Desormeaux

Trainer: Dale Romans

Past Performances

Best Beyer/BRIS: 98/102

Race Replays:

6/9/11 Churchill Downs MSW

7/3/11 Churchill Downs MSW

8/13/11 Saratoga MSW (T)

9/1/11 With Anticipation -T (G2)

10/8/11 Breeders’ Futurity (G1)

11/5/11 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)

3/11/12 Palm Beach (G3)-Turf

4/14/12 Blue Grass S. (G1)

6. Bodemeister (4-1)

Pedigree: Empire Maker/Untouched Talent (Storm Cat)

Dosage: 3.00

TrueNicks Grade: B+

Jockey: Mike Smith

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Past Performances

Best Beyer/BRIS: 108/105

Race Replays:

1/16/12 Santa Anita MSW

2/11/12 Santa Anita MSW

3/10/12 San Felipe S. (G2)

4/14/12 Arkansas Derby (G1)

7. Rousing Sermon (50-1)

Pedigree: Lucky Pulpit/Rousing Again (Awesome Again)

Dosage: 2.60

TrueNicks Grade: A++

Jockey: Jose Lezcano

Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer

Past Performances

Best Beyer/BRIS: 91/94

Race Replays:

6/5/11 Hollywood Park MSW R9

8/3/11 Graduation S.

9/5/11 I’m Smokin S.

10/29/11 Bob Benoit California Cup Juvenile S.

11/12/11 Real Quiet S.

12/17/11 CashCall Futurity (G1)

2/4/12 Robert Lewis S. (G2)

3/10/12 San Felipe S. (G2)

4/1/12 Louisiana Derby (G2)

8. Creative Cause (12-1)

Pedigree: Giant’s Causeway/Dream of Summer (Siberian Summer)

Dosage: 1.43

TrueNicks Grade: A++

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Trainer: Mike Harrington

Past Performances

Best Beyer/BRIS: 102/102

Race Replays:

7/16/11 Hollywood Park MSW

8/7/11 Best Pal S. (G2)

9/7/11 Del Mar Futurity (G1)

10/1/11 Norfolk S. (G1)

11/5/11 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)

2/19/12 San Vicente (G2)

3/10/12 San Felipe S. (G2)

4/7/12 Santa Anita Derby (G1)

9. Trinniberg (50-1)

Pedigree: Teuflesberg/Bella Dorato (Goldminer’s Gold)

Dosage: 3.00

TrueNicks Grade: B

Jockey: Willie Martinez

Trainer: Bisnath Parboo

Past Performances

Best Beyer/BRIS: 99/103

Race Replays:

7/8/11 Calder Race Course MSW

8/15/11 Saratoga Special (G2)

9/5/11 Hopeful (G1)

10/2/11 Nashua (G2)

11/5/11 Breeders’ Cup Sprint

3/10/12 Swale S. (G3)

4/7/12 Bay Shore (G3)

10. Daddy Nose Best (15-1)

Pedigree: Scat Daddy/Follow Your Bliss (Thunder Gulch)

Dosage: 2.43

TrueNicks Grade: A++

Jockey: Garrett Gomez

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Past Performances

Best Beyer/BRIS: 100/101

Race Replays:

6/9/11 Churchill Downs MSW

7/3/11 Churchill Downs MSW

7/30/11 Saratoga MSW

8/27/11 Saratoga MSW (Turf)

9/17/11 Summer S. (G3)

11/26/11 Churchill Downs ALW- Turf

12/31/11 Eddie Logan S.- Turf

2/18/12 El Camino Real Derby (G3)

3/25/12 Sunland Derby (G3)

11. Alpha (15-1)

Pedigree: Bernardini/Munnaya (Nijinsky II)

Dosage: 1.67

TrueNicks Grade: A

Jockey: Rajiv Maragh

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

Past Performances

Best Beyer/BRIS: 98/101

Race Replays:

9/3/11 Saratoga MSW

10/8/11 Champagne S. (G1)

11/5/11 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)

1/7/12 Count Fleet S.

2/4/12 Withers S. (G3)

4/7/12 Wood Memorial (G1)

12. Prospective (30-1)

Pedigree: Malibu Moon/Spirited Away (Awesome Again)

Dosage: 3.36

TrueNicks Grade: A

Jockey: Luis Contreras

Trainer: Mark Casse

Past Performances

Best Beyer/BRIS: 88/95

Race Replays:

7/31/11 Woodbine MSW

8/27/11 Woodbine MSW

10/9/11 Grey S. (G3)

11/5/11 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)

1/14/12 Pasco S.

2/4/12 Sam F. Davis (G3)

3/10/12 Tampa Bay Derby (G2)

4/14/12 Blue Grass S. (G1)

13. Went the Day Well (20-1)

Pedigree: Proud Citizen/Tiz Maie’s Day (Tiznow)

Dosage: 1.91

TrueNicks Grade: C

Jockey: John Velazquez

Trainer: Graham Motion

Past Performances

Best Beyer/BRIS: 92/103

Race Replays:

2/4/12 Gulfstream Park MSW

3/3/12 Gulfstream Park MSW

3/24/12 Vinery Spiral S. (G3)

14. Hansen (10-1)

Pedigree: Tapit/Stormy Sunday (Sir Cat)

Dosage: 3.50

TrueNicks Grade: A++

Jockey: Ramon Dominguez

Trainer: Mike Maker

Past Performances

Best Beyer/BRIS: 96/105

Race Replays:

9/9/11 Turfway Park MSW

9/24/11 KY Juvenile Cup S.

11/5/11 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)

1/29/12 Holy Bull (G3)

3/3/12 Gotham S. (G3)

4/14/12 Blue Grass S. (G1)

15. Gemologist (6-1)

Pedigree: Tiznow/Crystal Shard (Mr. Prospector)

Dosage: 2.73

TrueNicks Grade: A++

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Past Performances

Best Beyer/BRIS: 98/102

Race Replays:

9/24/11 Turfway Park MSW

10/30/11 Churchill Downs AOC

11/26/11 KY Jockey Club S. (G2)

3/16/12 Gulfstream Park AOC

4/7/12 Wood Memorial (G1)

16. El Padrino (20-1)

Pedigree: Pulpit/Enchanted Rock (Giant’s Causeway)

Dosage: 2.60

TrueNicks Grade: A++

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Past Performances

Best Beyer/BRIS: 100/111

Race Replays:

8/20/11 Saratoga MSW

10/29/11 Belmont MSW

11/26/11 Remsen S. (G2)

1/29/12 Gulfstream Park AOC

2/25/12 Risen Star (G2)

3/31/12 Florida Derby (G1)

17. Done Talking (50-1)

Pedigree: Broken Vow/Dixie Talking (Dixieland Band)

Dosage: 2.33

TrueNicks Grade: A+

Jockey: Sheldon Russell

Trainer: Hamilton Smith

Past Performances

Best Beyer/BRIS: 85/92

Race Replays:

8/1/11 Delaware Park MSW

9/10/11 Delaware Park MSW

10/18/11 Delaware Park MSW

11/7/11 Parx Racing Allowance

11/26/11 Remsen S. (G2)

3/3/12 Gotham S. (G3)

4/7/12 Illinois Derby (G3)

18. Sabercat (30-1)

Pedigree: Bluegrass Cat/Miner’s Blessing (Forty Niner)

Dosage: 2.73

TrueNicks Grade: A++

Jockey: Corey Nakatani

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Past Performances

Best Beyer/BRIS: 92/94

Race Replays:

5/26/11 Churchill Downs MSW

7/3/11 Churchill Downs MSW

8/6/11 Saratoga MSW

9/5/11 Monmouth MSW

10/2/11 Garden State S.

11/19/11 Delta Downs Jackpot (G3)

3/17/12 Rebel S. (G2)

4/14/12 Arkansas Derby (G1)

19. I’ll Have Another (12-1)

Pedigree: Flower Alley/Arch’s Gal Edith (Arch)

Dosage: 2.11

TrueNicks Grade: A

Jockey: Mario Gutierrez

Trainer: Doug O’Neill

Past Performances

Best Beyer/BRIS: 96/102

Race Replays:

7/3/11 Hollywood Park MSW

8/7/11 Best Pal S. (G2)

9/5/11 Hopeful (G1)
2/4/12 Robert Lewis S. (G2)

4/7/12 Santa Anita Derby (G1)

20. Liaison (50-1)

Pedigree: Indian Charlie/Galloping Gal (Victory Gallop)

Dosage: 3.00

TrueNicks Grade: A++

Jockey: Martin Garcia

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Past Performances

Best Beyer/BRIS: 92/96

Race Replays:

9/3/11 Del Mar MSW

10/14/11 Santa Anita MSW

11/12/11 Real Quiet S.

12/17/11 CashCall Futurity (G1)

2/4/12 Robert Lewis S. (G2)

3/10/12 San Felipe S. (G2)

4/7/12 Santa Anita Derby (G1)

-Individual past performances and pedigree info linked from- KentuckyDerby.com

-Race Replays linked from Bloodhorse Replays or YouTube

Union Rags, Gemologist continue to impress on track// Hansen amped// Handicapper picks roll in

Union Rags before galloping at Churchill Downs May 3, 2012. Photo: CTD

Today’s summary will be short. It’s time for serious handicapping. Speaking of which, I’ve put together an addendum sheet you can download here. It contains tons of ranked stats on speed (Beyer and BRIS), pedigree (dosage, TrueNicks, Tomlinson Distance Ratings), pace, workout grades, historical data (post position, jockey, trainer stats), and more.

19 of the 20 Kentucky Derby entrants hit the Churchill Downs track this morning.  Hansen made his first appearance and appeared too amped up looking into the crowd, while Gemologist and Union Rags continue to steal the gallop show.  The roundup video from DRF’s Mike Welsch can fill you in on all the details// Some great articles and angles from the big newspapers today including New York Times and Wall Street Journal.  Pat Forde of Yahoo! writes the article that needed to be written on Dr. Hansen’s hunger for attention and how it takes away from his horse// Handicapper picks are starting to come in and as expected they’re all over the place// more…

Kentucky Derby Contender Page

Includes pedigree chart, dosage, TrueNicks, PPs, Best Beyer/BRIS, and race replays

Kentucky Derby News, Interviews, and Opinion

Mike Welsch track report and final thoughts 5/3 [with video] (DRF)

Kentucky Derby Preview (Chef-de-race)

Depth makes for dynamic event (DRF)

A Kentucky Derby rundown (ESPN)

Kentucky Derby favorite? Oddsmaker shrugs (NY Times)

Envisioning how Kentucky Derby will be run is no easy task (The Times- Picayune)

Backside buzz with Jill Byrne 5/3 (Churchill Downs)

Beyer: Bodemeister by a nose (Washington Post Blog)

10 questions for Andrew Beyer (Kentucky Confidential)

Kentucky Derby favorite still has red flags (GoErie.com)

The big two leave little room at the top (DRF)

Bodemeister, Union Rags hard to get past (DRF)

Union Rags’s post okay after all, Matz says (DRF)

‘In the Derby’ doesn’t always mean in the black (The Wall Street Journal)

Kentucky Derby favorites and their auction prices (Bloodhorse Blog)

Kentucky Derby is hard to handicap (LA Times)

All clear for Creative Cause in Kentucky Derby (AP)

Creative Cause a big deal for breeder Weigel (Bloodhorse)

Union Rags’s post okay after all, Matz says (DRF)

Hansen the human trying to outshine Hansen the horse (Yahoo!)

Maker envisions perfect trip for Hansen (Bloodhorse)

Hansen survived his mother to achieve acclaim (Bloodhorse)

Harrington taking it all in ambling stride (Courier Journal)

Romans very much his own man (DRF)

Irwin, Motion make for an odd couple that thrives (DRF)

Video interviews (DRF)

Another tough spot for Daddy Long Legs (DRF)

A fallen horse trainer seeks to revive his once stellar career (NY Times)

Byrne back on the big stage (DRF)

Four jockeys get first shot at the Roses (DRF)

Last of the Cajun jockeys (Kentucky Confidential)
Jockey Borel’s Kentucky Derby addiction (CNN)

It’s once more with feeling for trainer Michael Matz (Courier Journal)

Gemologist a study in size, speed, personality (Columbus Dispatch)

Future wager provides bargains, underlays (DRF)

Kentucky Derby field set; Bodemeister the favorite at 4-1

PP	Horse	Jockey		Odds
1	Daddy Long Legs	Colm O'Donoghue	Aidan O'Brien	30-1
2	Optimizer	Jon Court	D. Wayne Lukas	50-1
3	Take Charge Indy	Calvin Borel	Patrick Byrne	15-1
4	Union Rags	Julien Leparoux	Michael Matz	9-2
5	Dullahan	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	8-1
6	Bodemeister	Mike Smith	Bob Baffert	4-1
7	Rousing Sermon	Jose Lezcano	Jerry Hollendorfer	50-1
8	Creative Cause	Joel Rosario	Mike Harrington	12-1
9	Trinniberg	Willie Martinez	Bisnath Parboo	50-1
10	Daddy Nose Best	Garrett Gomez	Steve Asmussen	15-1
11	Alpha	Rajiv Maragh	Kiaran McLaughlin	15-1
12	Prospective	Luis Contrerars	Mark Casse	30-1
13	Went the Day Well	John Velazquez	Graham Motion	20-1
14	Hansen	Ramon Dominguez	Michael Maker	10-1
15	Gemologist	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	6-1
16	El Padrino	Rafael Bejarano	Todd Plethcer	20-1
17	Done Talking	Sheldon Russell	Hamilton Smith	50-1
18	Sabercat	Corey Nakatani	Steve Asmussen	30-1
19	I'll Have Another	Mario Gutierrez	Doug O'Neill	12-1
20	Liaison	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	50-1

It’s debatable just how much the Kentucky Derby post position draw really means.   Most trainers had their preferences as to being on the inside or outside, but the only overall consensus was to just stay away from post #1.  That tricky number was awarded to Daddy Long Legs, which immediately resulted in applause from team Hansen. They were then left with the final pill #14.  That post appears to be excellent for the Juvenile champion seeing as he will have the other speed horses Trinniberg, Take Charge Indy, and Bodemeister to his inside.  Some may have felt Calvin Borel would try to keep Take Charge Indy off of the early lead, but by drawing post #3 the most logical tactic would be to break clean and stay out of trouble by heading towards the front.

Alpha received perhaps the least ideal post for himself in slot #11, where he will be the first to load in the gate simultaneously with Daddy Long Legs.  Those two will then have to wait for the other 18 entrants to get situated, and it’s well-known that Alpha has had issues with acting up in the gate.  The son of Bernardini needs to prove he has overcome that fear on Saturday. 

Bodemeister was given the honor of morning line favorite for the Kentucky Derby at 4-1 odds.  Just weeks earlier many believed the favorite could be as high as 7-1 considering all of the equal prospects in the field.  He impressed onlookers at Churchill Downs over the weekend when he breezed, as did 9/2 second favorite Union Rags.  He will break from post 4, a spot trainer Michael Matz did not seem real excited about considering the inside positioning.  The colt did not look comfortable when forced to the inside in the Florida Derby.

The position draw did bring its fair share of notable quotes and occurrences.  Dr. Hansen insisted he thought his horse should be the 3-1 favorite despite his 1 for 3 record in wins as a 3-year-old.  Bodemeister’s owner Ahmed Zayat made a point to seek out the connections of I’ll Have Another to tell them what a fan he was of the Santa Anita Derby winner.  Most trainers of top contenders were satisfied with their position. A full rundown of reactions can be read below in the links section.

Quite a bit of activity during training hours and along the backside Wednesday, but no new major developments or rumors.  There were several raised eyebrows from those who heard Creative Cause walked the shed row for the second consecutive day, but that’s apparently the normal routine according to trainer Mike Harrington// Dullahan was full of himself and very eager on the track// Hansen finally arrived to Churchill Downs from nearby Trackside Training Center, so all Derby horses are now on the grounds// D. Wayne Lukas seems to finally admit he may have a second-tier horse in Optimizer.  The 4-time Derby winning trainer calls this year’s Derby contingent “a hell of group”// For observations on all contenders on the track Wednesday check out the Mike Welsch video below. He singles out Gemologist, Union Rags, and Trinniberg as looking impressive// more…

Kentucky Derby Contender Page

Includes past performances, pedigree chart, dosage, TrueNicks, Best Beyer/BRIS, and race replays

Kentucky Derby News, Interviews, and Opinion

Bodemeister, Union Rags vie for favoritism (Brisnet)

Andrew Beyer’s Derby preview (Washington Post)

Draw Quotes (Churchill Downs)

Barn Notes 5/2 (Churchill Downs)

Mike Welsch clocker report 5/2 [video] (DRF)

On location [videos] (Bloodhorse)

Gemologist undefeated but under-the-radar (Bloodhorse)

Haskin’s Derby Trail: Summer school (Bloodhorse Blog)

Went the Day Well antsy in gate (DRF)

O’Brien brings a classic passion (DRF)

Take Charge, Patrick (Courier Journal)

Mine That Bird, Dullahan are connected (Des Moines Register)

Baffert’s training could help Bodemeister buck history (DRF)Mane character: Alpha [with video] (Courier Journal)

Derby never gets old for D. Wayne Lukas (Lexington Herald Leader)

Is this the new Barbaro? (CNN)

I’ll Have Another a dream for trainer Doug O’Neill (Courier Journal)

Any way you say it, Dullahan’s a pronounced talent (USA Today)

Like trainer, like racehorse [Bodemeister] (ESPN)

Trainer’s dinner brings candid comments (Bloodhorse)

Interview: Mike Maker [video] (Bloodhorse)

Interview: Mark Casse [video] (Bloodhorse)

Kentucky Derby 2012 betting odds and history (Yahoo!)

Derby week heat wave in Louisville (DRF)

Algorithms the exception in this year’s crop (DRF)

Breen has back-up plan if My Adonis is excluded (DRF)