You can only watch so many replays, read so many articles, hear so many
angles, and stare at the PPs until your eyes hurt, but the time comes to make a
decision. Every Derby is tough, but this year especially seems to be agonizing
with 12 horses I had difficulty ranking. Here are my final selections:
Win: #15 Gemologist
It came down to who has the least faults? You can’t fault an undefeated
horse who has won at Churchill twice around two turns, gets a favorable post,
has a Derby winning trainer, has a top jock, has the distance pedigree, has
shown an ability to stay behind the pacesetters, and has looked good training
on the track.
Place: #19 I’ll Have Another
Don’t like the post necessarily, but think it beats 1 through 6 in this
race, and with a lucky trip could be gliding right alongside Gemologist just
behind the 3 speedsters. Aside
from Creative Cause, an argument could be made he hasn’t beaten anyone, but
those two were well clear of the 3rd place finisher in the Santa
Anita Derby and he dominated the Bob Lewis before that. Speed figs in last 2
suggest he’s just on par. Looks ready to go during morning training.
Show: #8 Creative Cause
A shaky pick, but can’t let him go. Whispers of a hoof problem, but I doubt trainer Mike Harrington
would run him if it really was serious.
A lot of negative reports from the mornings too, but that’s been going
on since July. Bottom line, this
guys comes to race every time. Never
worse than 3rd and never beaten by over a length. Great pedigree and
suitable running style.
Rounding out the Super: Daddy Nose Best
Jumping on the bandwagon here, but has to be considered dangerous. Won twice at 9 furlongs and looks great
at Churchill. Big class test, but
speed figs suggest he can hang.
Scared to leave out
#11 Alpha
Despite skipping a planned workout two weeks ago, appears to be back on
track. If I’m all in on Gemologist
I need to pay attention to this guy too seeing as he only lost by a neck in the
Wood Memorial. Running style and
pedigree fit the bill, but he didn’t run well at Churchill in November. Could
have been attributed to acting up in the gate, but not so sure he’s over that
and will have to wait a long time for others to load Saturday.
I have left out the two favorites; #6
Bodemeister and #4 Union Rags. I’m going on the assumption pace and
crowd will do these two in. In the races where Bodemeister was restrained, he
did not appear comfortable although he still finished a game second to Creative
Cause in the San Felipe. As a fan I
actually hope he wins by daylight and proves to be the freak many are hoping
for, but chasing Trinniberg and Hansen will not be ideal.
Union Rags meanwhile will not like getting sandwiched towards the rail,
or even in close proximity to any of the 16 horses trying to get a shorter trip
to his outside. His best races have been in the clear and oftentimes on the
outside. That will not happen
Saturday.
Good Luck and let’s cash some tickets!
Kentucky
Derby Contenders:
One-sheeter contains tons of ranked stats on speed (Beyer and BRIS) pedigree (dosage, TrueNicks, Tomlinson
Distance Ratings), pace, workout grades, historical data (post position, jockey, trainer stats), and more.
1. Daddy Long Legs (30-1)
Dosage: 3.00
TrueNicks Grade: A
Jockey: Colm O’Donoghue
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Best Beyer/BRIS: 60*/81*
(*speed ratings n/a for last race)
Race Replays:
2. Optimizer (50-1)
Dosage: 3.24
TrueNicks Grade: B
Jockey: Jon Court
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Best Beyer/BRIS: 91/96
Race Replays:
3. Take Charge Indy (15-1)
Dosage: 3.00
TrueNicks Grade: A++
Jockey: Calvin Borel
Trainer: Patrick Byrne
Best Beyer/BRIS: 96/109
Race Replays:
4. Union Rags (9/2)
Dosage: 2.14
TrueNicks Grade: A
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Trainer: Michael Matz
Best Beyer/BRIS: 95/103
Race Replays:
5. Dullahan (8-1)
Dosage: 4.20
TrueNicks Grade: A++
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Trainer: Dale Romans
Best Beyer/BRIS: 98/102
Race Replays:
6. Bodemeister (4-1)
Dosage: 3.00
TrueNicks Grade: B+
Jockey: Mike Smith
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Best Beyer/BRIS: 108/105
Race Replays:
7. Rousing Sermon (50-1)
Dosage: 2.60
TrueNicks Grade: A++
Jockey: Jose Lezcano
Trainer: Jerry
Hollendorfer
Best Beyer/BRIS: 91/94
Race Replays:
8. Creative Cause (12-1)
Dosage: 1.43
TrueNicks Grade: A++
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Trainer: Mike Harrington
Best Beyer/BRIS: 102/102
Race Replays:
9. Trinniberg (50-1)
Dosage: 3.00
TrueNicks Grade: B
Jockey: Willie Martinez
Trainer: Bisnath Parboo
Best Beyer/BRIS: 99/103
Race Replays:
10. Daddy Nose Best (15-1)
Dosage: 2.43
TrueNicks Grade: A++
Jockey: Garrett Gomez
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Best Beyer/BRIS: 100/101
Race Replays:
11. Alpha (15-1)
Dosage: 1.67
TrueNicks Grade: A
Jockey: Rajiv Maragh
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Best Beyer/BRIS: 98/101
Race Replays:
12. Prospective (30-1)
Dosage: 3.36
TrueNicks Grade: A
Jockey: Luis Contreras
Trainer: Mark Casse
Best Beyer/BRIS: 88/95
Race Replays:
13. Went the Day Well (20-1)
Dosage: 1.91
TrueNicks Grade: C
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Graham Motion
Best Beyer/BRIS: 92/103
Race Replays:
14. Hansen (10-1)
Dosage: 3.50
TrueNicks Grade: A++
Jockey: Ramon Dominguez
Trainer: Mike Maker
Best Beyer/BRIS: 96/105
Race Replays:
15. Gemologist (6-1)
Dosage: 2.73
TrueNicks Grade: A++
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Best Beyer/BRIS: 98/102
Race Replays:
16. El Padrino (20-1)
Dosage: 2.60
TrueNicks Grade: A++
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Best Beyer/BRIS: 100/111
Race Replays:
17. Done Talking (50-1)
Dosage: 2.33
TrueNicks Grade: A+
Jockey: Sheldon Russell
Trainer: Hamilton Smith
Best Beyer/BRIS: 85/92
Race Replays:
18. Sabercat (30-1)
Dosage: 2.73
TrueNicks Grade: A++
Jockey: Corey Nakatani
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Best Beyer/BRIS: 92/94
Race Replays:
19. I’ll Have Another (12-1)
Dosage: 2.11
TrueNicks Grade: A
Jockey: Mario Gutierrez
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Best Beyer/BRIS: 96/102
Race Replays:
20. Liaison (50-1)
Dosage: 3.00
TrueNicks Grade: A++
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Best Beyer/BRIS: 92/96
Race Replays:
-Race Replays linked from
Bloodhorse Replays or YouTube
