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Stretch out does the trick for Super Ninety Nine// Picks and stories on Saturday’s key Kentucky Derby preps// Plans still in flux for Will Take Charge and Uncaptured

Summary:
Top shelf Derby prospect Uncaptured is still on the mend from several injuries. His trainer Mark Casse is hoping for a return to racing by the second or third week of March, but the timeframe gets tighter by the day. Uncaptured will hopefully have his first breeze next week// Super Ninety Nine’s impressive allowance score at Santa Anita Thursday registered a 100 Beyer speed figure. Trainer Bob Baffert said Super Ninety Nine and 2nd place Code West would move up to stakes company next. The latter will probably ship to the Fair Grounds, while Super Ninety Nine could stay at Santa Anita// Rick Violette says Clawback will most likely get his first chance to stretch out in the Gotham (G3) March 2 at Aqueduct// Tour Guide is another sprinter whose connections are looking to stretch out on the Derby trail. He’ll either go to the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn or Risen Star (G2) at the Fair Grounds// Not only was Friday a mere eve to a big Derby preview day, but it held its fair share of possible key races as well. One was an impressive debut win at Oaklawn by Big Lute, who won by over 4 lengths. Over at the Fair Grounds, Departing followed up his debut win with an impressive allowance score. It won’t be surprising to see both colts in stakes company next// More previews and handicapper picks for the busy Saturday// more…

Saturday Derby Points Races:

Withers (G3)
Aqueduct
1 1/16 Miles
Time/TV: 4:18 PM ET/TVG
Previews: NYRA / Brisnet / Bloodhorse / DRF DRF2


Sam F. Davis (G3)
Tampa Bay Downs
1 1/16 Miles
Time/TV: 5:23 PM ET/TVG


Robert Lewis S. (G2)
Santa Anita Park
1 1/16 Miles
Time/TV: 5:03 PM ET/TVG
Picks: DRF Video


Saturday Non-Derby point races:

Hutcheson (G2)
Gulfstream Park
7 Furlongs
Time/TV: 5:05 ET/HRTV
Previews: Brisnet / Bloodhorse / HR Nation / DRF


Gulfstream Park Race 5: Allowance Optional Claiming
1 Mile
Time/TV: 2:37 PM ET/HRTV


96 Rocks Stakes
Turfway Park
1 Mile
Time/TV: 5:11 PM ET/TVG


Articles:
Kentucky Derby update for Feb 1 (In The Money Blog)


Workouts:
Mylute- FG- 5F- 1.00:20- B- 2/25
Will Take Charge- OP- 4F- 48:80- B- 2/30
Get Happy Mister- OP- 5F- 1.01:40- H- 2/26
Belvin- SA- 5F- 59:80- H- 1/53


Quotes and Tweets:
"Tim Ice says Brown Almighty, who worked this morning, is over his lung infection and is being pointed to the Southwest."- The Downey Profile via Twitter

Entries drawn for 3 Derby points races// Verrazano to take next step// Bobby Experimental high weight// more

Summary:
What a day Saturday is going to be. Not only do we have 3 preps with Derby points on the line, but there are some interesting allowances and minor stakes as well// Revolutionary will try to take a big step both in class and on the trail in the Withers. He’ll face 7 others, but should be a short price// 10 will line up for the Sam F. Davis in Tampa with most of the storylines focusing on Dynamic Sky and recent Bill Mott acquisition My Name Is Michael// Lots of anger over the draw for the Robert Lewis (G2) at Santa Anita. The field was expected to be light, but not many predicted the number of entrants would only be four.  The race does feature Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up He’s Had Enough and highly touted Bob Baffert trainee Flashback// Below is a roundup of preview articles, links to free PPs and more for all three point races// The 7-furlong Hutcheson always gets a lot of Derby related press, but rarely do we see the contestants make the Derby field// An undercard allowance at Gulfstream will carry just as much interest as the Hutcheson for many. Todd Pletcher’s exciting debut winner Verrazano heads the one mile race but will face a salty field that includes Eton Blue and Sky Commander// The Illinois Derby will now be just two weeks before the Kentucky Derby, making it essentially a prep race for the Preakness.  The move is not surprising considering Churchil Downs did not include the race in its new points format// more…

Saturday Derby Points Races:

Withers (G3)
Aqueduct
1 1/16 Miles
Time/TV: 4:18 PM ET/TVG
Previews: NYRA / Brisnet / Bloodhorse / DRF


Sam F. Davis (G3)
Tampa Bay Downs
1 1/16 Miles
Time/TV: 5:23 PM ET/TVG
Previews: Bloodhorse / DRF


Robert Lewis S. (G2)
Santa Anita Park
1 1/16 Miles
Time/TV: 5:03 PM ET/TVG
Previews: Bloodhorse / Brisnet / DRF


Saturday Non-Derby point races:

Hutcheson (G2)
Gulfstream Park
7 Furlongs
Time/TV: 5:05 ET/HRTV
Previews: Brisnet / Bloodhorse

Gulfstream Park Race 5: Allowance Optional Claiming
1 Mile
Time/TV: 2:37 ET/HRTV


Articles:
Itsmyluckyday (DRF Blog)

Rankings:
Expert Picks (Churchill Downs)

Daily Feed: News on Will Take Charge, Oxbow// UAE Derby could get Derby contenders// more…


Articles:


Workouts:
Carried Interest- PMM- 3F- 38:44- B- 6/11
Weekend Hideaway- PMM- 4F- 49:44- B- 12/27
Hear the Ghost- HOL- 4F- 49:20- H- 19/35


Quotes and Tweets:
“Avare, Eddie Logan winner who ran in Smarty Jones, flew back to Santa Anita today, per trainer Doug O'Neill. "Next start in own backyard."- Mary Rampellini via Twitter

Bullet move for Flashback ahead of Bob Lewis// Revolutionary could face 6 in Withers// Purple Egg ready to hit track again

Summary:
Bob Baffert’s maiden winner Flashback blitzed 5-furlongs Monday morning in 59:40 at Santa Anita on what was labeled a “Wet Fast” track. The move was the fastest of 20 works, and while there were no follow-up stories, we were left with a Tweet from Bob Baffert stating he went “great”.  Many are eager to see how Flashback handles stakes company Saturday in the Robert Lewis (G2) and whether he can extend all of the hype into the next chapter of the trail// Derby chatter also continues for maiden winner Revolutionary, but it doesn’t look like he’ll face much on Saturday in the Withers (G3) at Aqueduct. Of the seven horses pointing towards the race, the most accomplished is restricted stakes winner Smooth Bert. Siete de Oros will take some money at the windows based on his admirable defeat to Vyjack in the Jerome (G2) earlier in the month. Others considered probable for the Withers include Long River, Valid, and Amerigo Vespucci// Undefeated Purple Egg is set to begin training again soon. Trainer Jane Cibelli said he’s finally recovered from the effects of a fever and will hopefully be ready for the Tampa Bay Derby March 9// Gulfstream Park listed only four horses who are probable for the Hutcheson (G2) Saturday: Merit Man, Singanothersong, Honorable Dillon, and Pataky Kid// Holy Bull quotes, thoughts, and analysis keep pouring in// more…

Articles:
Injury list (Horseracing Nation)


Workouts:
Proud Strike- FG- 5F- 1.03:00- B- 18/23
War Academy- SA- 5F- 1.01:40 H- 3/4 (Turf)
Flashback- SA- 5F- 59:40- H- 1/20 (Wet Fast)
Vyjack- AQU- 5F- 1.03:03- B- 1/7
Smooth Bert- BEL- 5F- 1.02:45- B- 7/17 

Weekend Review: Holy Bull analysis// Updated future odds// News on Orb, Cerro, Majestic Hussar, Elnaawi, Fury Kapcori, Honorable Dillon, more

Holy Bull S. (G3)
Winner (pts): Itsmyluckyday (10)
2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Shanghai Bobby (4), Clearly Now (2), Joshua’s Comprise (1)
Chart: Equibase
Replay: YouTube
CTD Analysis: As is usually the case when a 2-year-old Champion fails to win his 3-year-old debut, the follow-up analysis focuses just as much on the beaten favorite as the surprising winner. In the case of the Holy Bull (G3), winner Itsmyluckyday deserves the lion’s share of attention. It was as close to perfection as you could ask for in a horse race- an excellent ride by jockey Elvis Trujillo, a professional and mature stalking journey from the winner, and an eye-popping final time that broke a track record. His Beyer speed figure of 104 is the highest of his class. The day clearly belonged to Itsmyluckyday and trainer Eddie Plesa Jr., and they deserve to now be in the same serious Kentucky Derby discussions as Violence, Todd Pletcher, Goldencents, Doug O’Neill, D. Wayne Lukas, Flashback, Bob Baffert, and Shanghai Bobby.  The colt apparently came out of the race “110%” and will train for the Florida Derby (G1) March 30.

As the connections and others stated, Shanghai Bobby’s 2nd place finish was admirable considering it was his first race in almost 3 months, he set a solid pace, and he cleared the remainder of the field by over 11 lengths. His 100 Beyer figure was good enough to win anywhere else on the trail. There was some chatter that Shanghai Bobby’s pedigree was to blame for the slow down in the stretch, but I would like to see a change of strategy next time out. Pletcher and Napravnik both stated they wanted to dictate the pace, but Shanghai Bobby won two Grade 1’s without going gate-to-wire.  Perhaps it was due to the #1 post and we will see a change in approach in the Florida Derby (G1).

The Holy Bull was not without complete disappointments. I was expecting much more from Dewey Square, who never got involved in the race.  His connections stressed the fact he took a lot of dirt in the face (and even proved it with a post-race picture), but this is horseracing after all, and if you choose to stay in the middle or back of the pack it’s going to come with flying dirt. We were also treated to a gruesome picture of Frac Daddy’s bleeding hoof, which proved he grabbed a quarter. Kenny McPeek believes the injury cost him the race, and it’s true we probably didn’t see his best race. Kelly Breen blamed Bern Identity’s 5th place result on repeated bumping, but did it cost him all 14 lengths? Despite all of the excuses it’s difficult to hold out hope for any of the Holy Bull horses behind the top two.


Weekend News Summary
The Holy Bull undercard featured some possibly promising sophomores whose trainers have their sights set on the Derby. Shug McGaughey’s Orb defeated a strong group in an allowance, and will be pointed to the Fountain Of Youth (G2) February 23. Graham Motion sent out Cerro in another 1 1/8 mile allowance Saturday, and the colt led at every call of the race. Cerro will start next on the grass in the Palm Beach (G3) at Gulfstream and then probably move to polytrack in the Spiral Stakes (G3) at Turfway. Who am I to tell a Kentucky Derby winning trainer what to do, but I find it strange Motion is using a grass/synthetic plan considering Cerro’s best performances have come on dirt// Fury Kapcori was ruled out of the upcoming Robert Lewis (G2) with an undisclosed “problem”, according to trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. No word on how long he will be on the sidelines// Eddie Kenneally likes Honorable Dillon and thinks the colt will improve in his second start off a layoff. He’s scheduled to race in Saturday’s Hutcheson (G2). The trainer also said Majestic Hussar, who won an impressive allowance contest against Palace Malice last week, is headed to the Fountain of Youth (G2)// Goldencents, currently tied in Derby points with leader Shanghai Bobby, had a sharp six furlong bullet work at Santa Anita Saturday. He’s working steadily towards a start in the San Felipe (G2) March 9, along with new stablemate Mudflats. Doug O’Neill said Mudflats is a little unfocused. The trainer seems to have the same issue with Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) runner-up He’s Had Enough, who worked Friday and needed quite a bit of urging from rider Mario Guttierez// The Courier-Journal released their annual Kentucky Derby section, and links to the stories and video can be found below// Wynn Las Vegas updated their future odds list right after the Holy Bull. Itsmyluckyday dropped down to 25-1 after his win, while Shanghai Bobby moved from 18-1 to 24-1// more…


Point Standings


Future Odds
Wynn Las Vegas 1/26/13 (Courier Journal)


Articles:
Pedigree Profile: Itsmyluckyday (Horseracing Nation)
West Region: At a glance (Courier Journal)
East Region: At a glance (Courier Journal)
Midwest Region: At a glance (Courier Journal)


Contender lists
115 3-year-olds to watch (Courier Journal)


Rankings


Workouts:
Saturday
Dynamic Sky- PMM- 5F- 1.01:33- B- 8/24
Honorable Dillon- PMM- 5F- 59:88- B- 1/24
Sky Commander- PMM- 5F- 1.03:12- B- 21/24
Integrity- PMM- 4F- 49:89- B- 57/101
Den's Legacy- SA- 4F- 49:60- H- 6/8 (Wet Fast)
Manando- SA- 5F- 59:00- H- 1/14 (Wet Fast)
Super Ninety Nine- SA- 6F- 1.11:60 H- 2/8 (Wet Fast)
Goldencents- SA- 6F- 1.10:20- H- 1/8 (Wet Fast)


Sunday
Capo Bastone- PMM- 5F- 1.01:90- B- 13/21
Violence- PMM- 4F- 48:09- B- 5/44
Normandy Invasion- PMM- 4F- 49:09- B- 23/44
Overanalyze- PMM- 4F- 47:88- B- 3/44
Verrazano- PMM- 4F- 48:82- B- 14/44
Delhomme- PMM- 4F- 49:49- B- 29/44
Oxbow- OP- 4F- 49:60- B- 2/7

Itsmyluckyday ruins Shanghai Bobby's comeback in Holy Bull


Holy Bull S. (G3)
Winner (pts): Itsmyluckyday (10)
2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Shanghai Bobby (4), Clearly Now (2), Joshua’s Comprise (1)
Chart: Equibase
Replay: Bloodhorse
Recaps: Bloodhorse

More Holy Bull angles and picks// Uncaptured taking Kentucky synthetic route to Derby// He’s Had Enough works 6 panels


Holy Bull S. (G3)
Gulfstream Park
1 1/16 Miles
Time/TV: 5:05 ET/TVG
Entries/PPs: Click here


Articles:
Shanghai Bobby vs. The Rest (Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds)
Petals on the Path: Meeting Vyjack (Staten Island Advance)


Workouts:
Little Distorted- PPTC- 4F- 47:20- B- 1/15
He's Had Enough- SA- 6F- 1.10:80- H- 1/2


Nominations:


Quotes and Tweets:
"Excellent morning here @Gulfstreampark Frac Daddy and Pure Fun both went super" - Kenny McPeek

“He's doing well. He's wild, and he was feeling good this morning. He was jumping around, but he trained well.  We’ll look to the Rushaway and then come back in the Blue Grass. If successful in those two races, then the Kentucky Derby.”- Mark Casse

Picks roll in for Holy Bull// All eyes on Shanghai Bobby// Pataky Kid breezes for Hutcheson


Summary:
Every January as we begin the serious countdown to the first Saturday in May, it comforts us to have a star attraction. When you have literally hundreds of possible contenders spread out across the country, it’s nice to have some shared point of reference. You have high hopes, think he’s overrated, or simply feel indifferent, but he nonetheless takes the ceremonious first step on the real trail to Louisville. Like Union Rags and Uncle Mo before him, this year’s attention hog is Shanghai Bobby, whose mundane paddock schooling Thursday was the biggest news of the day on Derby blogs, press releases, and Twitter.  The noise meter will undoubtedly overheat Saturday, regardless of how Shanghai Bobby finishes, because his performance will shape the narrative for the next chapter//

Handicapper picks for the Holy Bull streamed in Thursday. Itsmyluckyday will apparently be on a lot of tickets along with favorite Shanghai Bobby// Trainer Dale Romans thinks his Holy Bull entrant Dewey Square has developed nicely and gained confidence since his third place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club in November// Tulira Castle’s trainer James DiVito said virtually the same thing in regards to his colt’s progression, while also noting his aggressiveness.  A link to handicapper picks, previews, and free PPs for the Holy Bull can be found below// Tom Proctor will use the Hutcheson (G2) at Gulfstream Park February 2 as the return race for Pataky Kid. The Arlington-Washington Futurity (G3) winner has not raced since a 5th place finish in the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill in October// more…


Holy Bull S. (G3)
Gulfstream Park
1 1/16 Miles
Time/TV: 5:05 ET/TVG
Entries/PPs: Click here


Articles:
3-year-olds to watch (In the Money Blog)


Workouts:
Mylute- FG- 4F- 50:60- B- 29/43
Get Happy Mister- OP- 5F- 1.01:60- 4/20
Pataky Kid- GP- 5F- 1.00:72- B- 7/21 (Gate)

Shanghai Bobby on the rail in Holy Bull, will face 9// Clawback to stretch out// Excuses for Smarty Jones also-rans// Flashback works

Summary:
Champion Shaghai Bobby will apparently have no cakewalk in his 3-year-old debut—at least on paper.  Todd Pletcher’s #1 prospect will face a graded stakes winner, two graded stakes placed runners, two listed stakes winners, and several other promising sophomores who could be sitting on a big race.  Shanghai Bobby will start on the rail for the Holy Bull (G3), which drew an unexpected field of ten. Full previews and a link to free PPs below// Rick Violette has decided to give recent Jimmy Winkfield Stakes winner Clawback a chance to stretch out. The exact race is undecided, but it very well could be away from New York considering the timing of the Withers (G3) in less than two weeks is not ideal.  Wherever he ends up it’s tough seeing Clawback excel at extra distance. Not that people pay attention to a horse’s dosage index much anymore, but a 7.00 is about the highest you’ll find of any possible Derby participant// Violette also mentioned that Carried Interest, who finished second to Overanalyze in his last race back in September, is gearing up for an allowance in February// Bob Baffert was pleased with Flashback’s workout in company at Santa Anita Wednesday morning. The colt is pointing to the Robert Lewis (G2) in a little over a week// The dust has fully settled from Monday’s Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn, and we now have excuses for several of the disappointing finishers.  Brown Almighty apparently had a “severe lung infection” and will be given another shot on the Derby trail in either the Risen Star (G2) or Southwest (G3).  Officer Alex lost a shoe according to trainer Lynn Whiting, and also suffered a poor break and wide trip.  He’ll give him another stakes try as well.  All of these excuses could be valid, but it’s not enough for me to back the colts in their next race// Always in a Tiz was arguably the most impressive in the Smarty Jones when finishing a hard charging third after ending up stuck behind horses on the rail. Trainer Dominick Schettino noted he galloped out ahead of the field past the wire, but that’s not always what it’s cracked up to be considering a lot of horses are gearing down. Always in a Tiz’s next race plans remain up in the air// more…

Upcoming Points Race:
Holy Bull S. (G3)
Gulfstream Park
1 1/16 Miles
Time/TV: 5:05 ET/TVG
Previews: DRF / Brisnet / Bloodhorse


Articles:


Workouts:
Flashback- SA- 5F- 58:60- H- 2/33
Belvin- SA- 5F- 58:80- H- 3/33


Quotes and Tweets:
"Flashback worked great today. Running in Robert Lewis next week"- Bob Baffert via Twitter