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| Know More winning the Best Pal (G2) at Del Mar |
With just a few days until the start of the
new and debatably improved Kentucky Derby prep season, I thought it would be
good time to review the juvenile scene as it stands now. Anyone familiar with following potential
Derby hopefuls this early knows the list is anything but static given the high
risk of defections and probability some 2013 Derby starters have yet to debut. Still, at this point last year many keen
observers were already keeping an eye on eventual Derby and Preakness Winner
I’ll Have Another, third place finisher Dullahan, Belmont winner Union Rags,
and third-place Preakness finisher Creative Cause.
Below is a list of juvenile colts who have shown potential to make noise along the
Kentucky Derby prep path. They range
from accomplished Grade 1 winners to mere maiden breakers. I realize the number of Todd Pletcher-trained
runners is annoying, but there is nothing we can really do about it at this
point. The guy dominated the Juvenile
division at Saratoga and is absolutely loaded.
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Garrett Gomez
A Grade 2 winner in his debut, Know More
sports the familiar silks seen on this year’s Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner
I’ll Have Another. With the same owner/trainer combo you can easily think he
may be overly hyped, but his 2nd in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) was
one of the most eye-catching performances I’ve seen this year. Surrounded and in tight towards the middle of
the pack during the first half of the race, Garret Gomez eventually was able to
find daylight on the far outside down the stretch. It was then Know More was able to fully open
his stride and pick off most of the field. Video: Del Mar
Futurity (G1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
One of the early 2013 Kentucky Derby
favorites only has a maiden win to his credit.
The amount of talk, ink, and cyberspace this horse has generated is
mind-boggling, a phenomenon that creates as many naysayers as hypesters. What we do know is that he’s fast (turned
clocker’s heads in morning workouts), conditioned by multi Triple Crown race
winning trainer Todd Pletcher, and easily won his debut by over 3 lengths. You
can also check the box on breeding as his lineage supports jockey John
Velazquez’s belief he’ll relish going longer.
A son of Arch out of a Seeking the Gold mare, Archwarrior shares the
same cross as Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Blame. His next race is likely the Champagne (G1) at
Belmont. Video:
8/30/12 Saratoga MSW
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Patrick Husbands
The opening favorite for the Kentucky Derby
future book at Wynn Las Vegas has never raced on dirt, much less away from
Woodbine. Distance is also an unknown
seeing as he hasn’t hit the mile mark yet.
Negatives and unknowns aside, he’s done nothing wrong (4 starts, 4 wins)
and could very well excel with added distance (Sired by Lion Heart out of an
Arch mare). He’s scheduled to stay at
Woodbine for the immediate future where he’ll start in the Grey Stakes (G3) on
Oct 7. Related Link: Casse’s
Uncaptured early KY Derby choice in future book
(Paulick Report)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Another undefeated juvenile, Rolling Fog
was a recent convincing winner of the Del Mar Futurity (G1). Trained by the ever-popular Bob Baffert,
there will still be doubters based on Posse as the sire. However, Unbridled’s Song as the damsire
suggests he may have staying power. Rolling Fog’s recent setback in training
due to bucked shins is an immediate concern, but could prove to be an opportune
rest before the grueling stretch of the new Derby trail in early 2013. Video: Del Mar
Futurity (G1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Rosie Napravnik
The New York tracks have showcased a ton of
promising talent, most of the time from the barn of Todd Pletcher, and Shanghai
Bobby is the most accomplished among them so far. A decisive winner of the Hopeful (G1) at
Saratoga, it will be intriguing to see far he will like to go. His sire Harlan’s Holiday was a multiple
stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles, but with sprint specialist Orientate on the
bottom half his chart doesn’t scream classic contender. Video: 9/3/12
Three Chimneys Hopeful (G1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Another Pletcher young gun, Micromanage
sailed to an ultra impressive 5-furlong win at Saratoga in his debut. His silks may look familiar as he’s owned by
the colorful Mike Repole of Uncle Mo/Stay Thirsty fame. Repole was unsurprisingly flattered with the
win and has big plans for the future.
The immediate course of action calls for the Champagne (G1) at Belmont
on Oct 6, but Micromanage’s pedigree suggests classic distances are right up
his alley. He’s the son of Travers
winner Medaglia d’Oro who sired Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra, and his dam
is a half-sister to Belmont Stakes winner Editor’s Note. He will race next most likely in the Dover
Stakes at Delaware Park. Related Link:
Micromanage
to target Champagne (Brisnet)
Trainer: Patrick Byrne
Jockey: Calvin Borel
Although he only has 1 win from 3 starts,
Positively could be a horse that will blossom as he matures and enjoy the
longer distances that are sure to come.
Not that he’s done anything glaringly wrong so far. From the get go trainer Patrick Byrne
believed he needed some experience and more ground before showing his true
colors. He broke his maiden on just his
second try at Churchill and followed that up with a tough 2nd in the
Bashford Manor (G3) where he was squeezed at the start and shuffled to the back
of the pack only to make a strong and steady run on the outside in the late
going. He suffered from bucked shins,
but has returned to training and will be pointed to the 2-year-old graded
stakes at Churchill in the Fall. Video:
6/30/12 Bashford Manor S. (G3)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
After a troubled debut at Saratoga in July,
Tizracer dusted the competition in his next start at Belmont in September where
he won by over 10 lengths in a hand ride. He will race next on polytrack at Keeneland in
the Breeder’s Futurity (G1). He most
likely would have stayed a Belmont for the Champagne, but was unfortunately put
on the B-team of Pletcher’s juvenile brigade.
Fortify
(Distorted Humor – Kotuku, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey: Joe Bravo
A bit of a head case in the gate before his
debut at Saratoga, Fortify was still much the best in the 5-furlong win. Coming back a month later in the Hopeful (G1)
he was on better gate behavior, but experienced some bad luck when a rival in
the stall next door slammed into him at the start. He was able to recover and put together a
sustained run for 2nd place. Video: 9/3/12
Three Chimneys Hopeful (G1)
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Kevin Krigger
Just missed breaking the track record in
his debut win at Del Mar. His breeding
is by no means regal. Precocious
perhaps, but there are some signs of stamina in parts of pedigree.
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Ramon Dominguez
One start, one win on the turf at
Saratoga. Even in training he sticks
mostly to turf but you have to wonder if Brown will try dirt down the
road. Distance is a question mark too,
but handled 8.5 furlongs fine first time out.
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Terrible name. A shaky debut with an
awkward start and neck-winning margin.
Likely to improve both with experience and distance. Apparently pointed
to Champagne (G1). Video: 8/18/12
SAR MSW
Trainer: Tom Proctor
Jockey: Garrett Gomez
Arlington-Washington Futurity (G3) winner gets a mention due to
automatic entry in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Third time (and switch to dirt) was the
charm for Jocosity who blazed to a 7 1/2 length victory at Saratoga in early
August. He earned the second-highest
Beyer speed figure (95) of current juveniles for the effort. Stretching out is definite concern given
breeding and running style.
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Even with headstrong antics before the
start, Palace Malice gave the impression he could turn into a pro pretty fast
in a professional effort at Saratoga.
Bucked shins, which seems to be a recurring theme, will sideline him for
awhile.
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
Don’t let his 6th place finish
in the Bashford Manor (G3) fool you. Lanerie guided him along a wild goose
chase by getting squeezed, darting to the inside, and then the outside. Roman’s Avenue should get better with more
ground, and a better trip. Video:
6/30/12 Bashford Manor S. (G3)
Trainer: Rick Violette Jr.
Jockey: Alan Garcia
His maiden win at Belmont was against a
pedigree-strong field. Route distances
could be a problem.
Norumbega
(Tiznow – Meghan’s Joy, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer: Claude McGaughey
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Shug McGaughey’s decision to switch to dirt
seemed to do the trick for this Saratoga maiden breaker at Saratoga. That victory was at 1 1/8 miles so distance
should not be an issue for the son of Tiznow.
He won’t race until 2013 due to hurting both back ankles.
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
A filly would normally not make the list
this early given the unlikelihood of being pointed to the Derby, but this one
is worth keeping an eye on. An absolute romp in the Meadow Star Stakes at
Belmont by over 16 lengths put her on all of the early future wager lists. Video: 9/9/12
Meadow Star Stakes
