Weekend Review: Oxbow wins LeComte// Palace Malice 2nd to Majestic Hussar at Gulfstream// 9 set for Smarty Jones// Brown looking at Bluegrass for turf runners// Holy Bull workouts

LeComte Stakes (G3)

Winner (pts): Oxbow (10)

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

Jockey: Jon Court

2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Golden Soul (4), Fear The Kitten (2), Ive Struck a Nerve (1)

Chart: Equibase

Replay: Bloodhorse

Wrap-up Articles: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

CTD Analysis: Two camps seem to be forming after Oxbow’s absolute domination in the LeComte Saturday.  A few were impressed, but many felt it only proved the field was weak.  I will stay cautiously optimistic and not pitch my tent in either camp.  There have surely been weaker fields in an early January graded stakes for 3-year-olds.  The cast included winners of graded stakes, listed stakes, and open allowances- not to mention promising maiden breakers.  True, there were questions for many of those winners, such as how they would take to dirt or if their pedigree would allow them to excel going two-turns.  And the answer for now is they all failed.  However, you can’ rule out the possibility Oxbow has simply progressed and matured. And it’s not as if his résumé was weak going into the race.  Before his lackluster 4th last time out on synthetic in the CashCall (G1), he convincingly won a crowded maiden contest at Churchill by over 4 lengths.  Lukas has always been high on him and pointed out the win was even more impressive considering he was one of the only late shippers.  Oxbow’s sire Awesome Again won multiple grade 1’s going 10 furlongs, and there are also distance signs on his dam side. The main concern for Oxbow is his frontend running style. His two wins have come in wire-to-wire fashion, something that does not happen often in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby. Oxbow will be pointed to the Risen Star (G2) at the Fair Grounds February 23 or possibly the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn February 18.

It’s difficult to get excited about any other LeComte participant, but I’m not giving up on 2nd place finisher Golden Soul who was bumped and pinched back at the start.  He then had to race wide most of the way and wound up making a good run down the stretch.  Jockey Brian Hernandez thinks he put in a solid effort considering the obstacles and step up in class and believes he’ll get better with added distance and seasoning.

Upcoming Points Race:

Smarty Jones Stakes- 1/23/13

Oaklawn Park

1 Mile

Derby Points 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th: 10, 4, 2, 1

Time/TV: 5:38PM ET/TVG

PPs: Click Here

Preview Articles: DRF / Brisnet / KentuckyDerby.com Video Preview

Picks: Triple Crown Champ /

Weekend News Summary:

Trainer Chad Brown is pointing two of his best 3-year-old turf stars, Noble Tune and Balance the Books, to the Bluegrass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland April 13. They will start in a turf race before that, which means if they qualify for the Derby we will have no measure of how well they will perform on dirt.  Defenders of turf and synthetic runners like to point out Kentucky Derby winners Animal Kingdom, Big Brown, Barbaro, and others had success off dirt before coming to Louisville, but they don’t mention the long list of those who failed to make the switch. Just last year, horses that competed on synthetic or won their best races on it, finished 3rd (not bad), 4th (not bad), 8th, 9th, and 20th (real bad).  A mixed bag for sure, but results that won’t cause me to run to the windows and bet on either Noble Tune or Balance the Books on the first Saturday in May// Majestic Hussar crashed the return party for Saratoga maiden winner Palace Malice in an allowance at Gulfstream Saturday. Majestic Hussar also broke his maiden at Saratoga in August, but followed it up with a dismal 7th place in the Hopeful Stakes (G1) before a comeback 2nd in another Gulfstream allowance in December.  While trainer Eddie Kenneally is confident and asserted he will put the colt on the Derby trail, the fact that Majestic Hussar’s two wins have both come on sloppy sealed tracks gives pause.  The Fountain of Youth (G2) February 23rd is the likely next race target// There has been some mystery on the status of Purple Egg, an undefeated colt by Lion Heart, who was scratched from both the Gulfstream Park Derby and Pasco Stakes.  Trainer Jane Cibelli finally admitted Purple Egg was still suffering the effects of a fever and they are taking it slow// Clearly Now, 3rd in the Display Stakes at Woodbine in December, is pointing for the Holy Bull (G3) Saturday.  He’ll face newly minted 2-year-old Champion Shanghai Bobby and a likely short field.  Shanghai Bobby had his final work before the Holy Bull Sunday, going 5 furlongs in 1:00.88.  Bern Identity and Dewey Square both posted 5-furlong moves at Palm Meadows and Gulfstream respectively// Reports from Aqueduct suggest Todd Pletcher’s Revolutionary is training like a monster.  He’s on schedule for the Withers (G3) on February 2// more…

Articles:

Shanghai Bobby posts final Holy Bull breeze [plus works by Dewey Square and Bern Identity] (Bloodhorse)

Clearly Now joins strong field for Holy Bull Saturday [plus news on Shanghai Bobby and Majestic Hussar] (Gulfstream Park)

Revolutionary preps for Withers with eye-catching workout (DRF)

Brown has plan to give turf runners chance at Kentucky Derby (DRF)

Majestic Hussar returns in sharp form, may target Fountain of Youth (DRF)

Clawback sticks to sprinting in Jimmy Winkfield (DRF)

Top 20 intriguing under-the-radar 3-year-olds (In the Money Blog)

Workouts:

Saturday:

Vyjack- AQU- 4F- 51:01- B- 17/23

Itsmyluckyday- CRC- 4F- 48:40- B- 2/57

Honorable Dillon- PMM- 5F- 1.01:70- B- 15/22

Fury Kapcori- HOL- 6F- 1.12:40- H- 1/3

Tour Guide- FG- 4F- 49:20- B- 29/88

Sunday:

Dewey Square- GP- 5F- 59:10- B- 1/20

War Academy- SA- 4F- 48:20- H- 6/27

Violence- PMM- 4F- 50:90- B- 41/45

Capo Bastone- PMM- 4F- 49:55- B- 24/45

Overanalyze- PMM- 4F- 51:62- B- 44/45

Normandy Invasion- PMM- 4F- 49:93- B- 34/45

Bern Identity- PMM- 5F- 59:33- B- 1/13

Shanghai Bobby- PMM- 5F- 1.00:88- B- 5/13

Verrazano- PMM- 5F- 1.00:88- B- 5/13

Revolutionary- BEL- 4F- 48:05- B- 13/78

Quotes and Tweets:

“Oxbow scheduled to ship back to #Oaklawn today, trainer Wayne Lukas said. Several next-race options, including Southwest and Rebel at Oaklawn”- Robert Yates via Twitter

Shanghai Bobby, Normandy Invasion, & more work at Palm Meadows// Frac Daddy 'leaning' towards Holy Bull

Articles:

Shanghai Bobby breezes 5F at Palm Meadows (Bloodhorse)

McPeek leaning toward running Frac Daddy in Holy Bull (Gulfstream Park)

Tweets:

“Turf stakes-winners Balance the Books, Noble Tune could both wind up in Blue Grass @Keeneland, trainer Chad Brown says”- Jennie Rees via Twitter

Works:

Golden Soul- FG- 4F- 48:40- B- 1/61

Bern Identity- PMM- 5F- 1.00:40- B- 6/21

Palace Malice- PMM- 5F- 1.01:42- B- 12/21

Shanghai Bobby- PMM- 5F- 1.01:42- B- 12/21

Normandy Invasion- PMM- 4F- 49:33- B- 17/45

Verrazano- PMM- 4F- 49:45- B- 24/45

Overanalyze- PMM- 3F- 36:94- B- 4/15

An early look at contenders for the 2013 Kentucky Derby

Know More winning the Best Pal (G2) at Del Mar

With just a few days until the start of the new and debatably improved Kentucky Derby prep season, I thought it would be good time to review the juvenile scene as it stands now.  Anyone familiar with following potential Derby hopefuls this early knows the list is anything but static given the high risk of defections and probability some 2013 Derby starters have yet to debut.  Still, at this point last year many keen observers were already keeping an eye on eventual Derby and Preakness Winner I’ll Have Another, third place finisher Dullahan, Belmont winner Union Rags, and third-place Preakness finisher Creative Cause.

Below is a list of juvenile colts who have shown potential to make noise along the Kentucky Derby prep path.  They range from accomplished Grade 1 winners to mere maiden breakers.  I realize the number of Todd Pletcher-trained runners is annoying, but there is nothing we can really do about it at this point.  The guy dominated the Juvenile division at Saratoga and is absolutely loaded.

Know More (Lion Heart – Seatle Qui, by Seattle Slew)

Trainer: Doug O’Neill

Jockey: Garrett Gomez

A Grade 2 winner in his debut, Know More sports the familiar silks seen on this year’s Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner I’ll Have Another. With the same owner/trainer combo you can easily think he may be overly hyped, but his 2^nd in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) was one of the most eye-catching performances I’ve seen this year.  Surrounded and in tight towards the middle of the pack during the first half of the race, Garret Gomez eventually was able to find daylight on the far outside down the stretch.  It was then Know More was able to fully open his stride and pick off most of the field. Video: Del Mar Futurity (G1)

Archwarrior (Arch- Winner’s Edge, by Seeking the Gold)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

One of the early 2013 Kentucky Derby favorites only has a maiden win to his credit.  The amount of talk, ink, and cyberspace this horse has generated is mind-boggling, a phenomenon that creates as many naysayers as hypesters.   What we do know is that he’s fast (turned clocker’s heads in morning workouts), conditioned by multi Triple Crown race winning trainer Todd Pletcher, and easily won his debut by over 3 lengths. You can also check the box on breeding as his lineage supports jockey John Velazquez’s belief he’ll relish going longer.  A son of Arch out of a Seeking the Gold mare, Archwarrior shares the same cross as Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Blame.  His next race is likely the Champagne (G1) at Belmont. Video: 8/30/12 Saratoga MSW

Uncaptured (Lion Heart – Captivating, by Arch)

Trainer: Mark Casse

Jockey: Patrick Husbands

The opening favorite for the Kentucky Derby future book at Wynn Las Vegas has never raced on dirt, much less away from Woodbine.  Distance is also an unknown seeing as he hasn’t hit the mile mark yet.  Negatives and unknowns aside, he’s done nothing wrong (4 starts, 4 wins) and could very well excel with added distance (Sired by Lion Heart out of an Arch mare).   He’s scheduled to stay at Woodbine for the immediate future where he’ll start in the Grey Stakes (G3) on Oct 7.  Related Link: Casse’s Uncaptured early KY Derby choice in future book (Paulick Report)

Rolling Fog (Posse - Fog Dance, by Unbridled’s Song)

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

Another undefeated juvenile, Rolling Fog was a recent convincing winner of the Del Mar Futurity (G1).  Trained by the ever-popular Bob Baffert, there will still be doubters based on Posse as the sire.  However, Unbridled’s Song as the damsire suggests he may have staying power. Rolling Fog’s recent setback in training due to bucked shins is an immediate concern, but could prove to be an opportune rest before the grueling stretch of the new Derby trail in early 2013. Video: Del Mar Futurity (G1)

Shanghai Bobby (Harlan’s Holiday – Steelin’, by Orientate)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Rosie Napravnik

The New York tracks have showcased a ton of promising talent, most of the time from the barn of Todd Pletcher, and Shanghai Bobby is the most accomplished among them so far.   A decisive winner of the Hopeful (G1) at Saratoga, it will be intriguing to see far he will like to go.  His sire Harlan’s Holiday was a multiple stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles, but with sprint specialist Orientate on the bottom half his chart doesn’t scream classic contender.  Video: 9/3/12 Three Chimneys Hopeful (G1)   

Micromanage (Medaglia d’Oro – Catnip, by Flying Paster)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Another Pletcher young gun, Micromanage sailed to an ultra impressive 5-furlong win at Saratoga in his debut.  His silks may look familiar as he’s owned by the colorful Mike Repole of Uncle Mo/Stay Thirsty fame.  Repole was unsurprisingly flattered with the win and has big plans for the future.  The immediate course of action calls for the Champagne (G1) at Belmont on Oct 6, but Micromanage’s pedigree suggests classic distances are right up his alley.  He’s the son of Travers winner Medaglia d’Oro who sired Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra, and his dam is a half-sister to Belmont Stakes winner Editor’s Note.   He will race next most likely in the Dover Stakes at Delaware Park. Related Link: Micromanage to target Champagne (Brisnet)

Positively (Distorted Humor – Macoumba, by Mr. Prospector)

Trainer: Patrick Byrne

Jockey: Calvin Borel

Although he only has 1 win from 3 starts, Positively could be a horse that will blossom as he matures and enjoy the longer distances that are sure to come.  Not that he’s done anything glaringly wrong so far.  From the get go trainer Patrick Byrne believed he needed some experience and more ground before showing his true colors.  He broke his maiden on just his second try at Churchill and followed that up with a tough 2^nd in the Bashford Manor (G3) where he was squeezed at the start and shuffled to the back of the pack only to make a strong and steady run on the outside in the late going.  He suffered from bucked shins, but has returned to training and will be pointed to the 2-year-old graded stakes at Churchill in the Fall. Video: 6/30/12 Bashford Manor S. (G3)

Tizracer (Tiznow – G City Gal, by Elusive Quality)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

After a troubled debut at Saratoga in July, Tizracer dusted the competition in his next start at Belmont in September where he won by over 10 lengths in a hand ride.  He will race next on polytrack at Keeneland in the Breeder’s Futurity (G1).  He most likely would have stayed a Belmont for the Champagne, but was unfortunately put on the B-team of Pletcher’s juvenile brigade. 

Fortify (Distorted Humor – Kotuku, by A.P. Indy)

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

Jockey: Joe Bravo

A bit of a head case in the gate before his debut at Saratoga, Fortify was still much the best in the 5-furlong win.  Coming back a month later in the Hopeful (G1) he was on better gate behavior, but experienced some bad luck when a rival in the stall next door slammed into him at the start.  He was able to recover and put together a sustained run for 2^nd place.  Video: 9/3/12 Three Chimneys Hopeful (G1)   

Goldencents (Into Mischief – Golden Works, by Banker’s Gold)

Trainer: Doug O’Neill

Jockey: Kevin Krigger

Just missed breaking the track record in his debut win at Del Mar.  His breeding is by no means regal.  Precocious perhaps, but there are some signs of stamina in parts of pedigree.

Noble Tune (Unbridled’s Song – Serena’s Cat, by Storm Cat)

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: Ramon Dominguez

One start, one win on the turf at Saratoga.  Even in training he sticks mostly to turf but you have to wonder if Brown will try dirt down the road.  Distance is a question mark too, but handled 8.5 furlongs fine first time out.

Violence (Medaglia d’Oro – Violent Beauty, by Gone West)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Terrible name. A shaky debut with an awkward start and neck-winning margin.  Likely to improve both with experience and distance. Apparently pointed to Champagne (G1).  Video: 8/18/12 SAR MSW

Pataky Kid (Rockport Harbor – Prom Princess, by Gold Case)

Trainer: Tom Proctor

Jockey: Garrett Gomez

Arlington-Washington Futurity (G3) winner gets a mention due to automatic entry in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Jocosity (Sharp Humor – Sobhy’s  Gal, by Stormy Atlantic)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Third time (and switch to dirt) was the charm for Jocosity who blazed to a 7 1/2 length victory at Saratoga in early August.  He earned the second-highest Beyer speed figure (95) of current juveniles for the effort.  Stretching out is definite concern given breeding and running style.

Palace Malice (Curlin – Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Even with headstrong antics before the start, Palace Malice gave the impression he could turn into a pro pretty fast in a professional effort at Saratoga.  Bucked shins, which seems to be a recurring theme, will sideline him for awhile.

Roman’s Avenue (Street Sense – Career Fair, by Storm Cat)

Trainer: Dale Romans

Jockey: Corey Lanerie

Don’t let his 6^th place finish in the Bashford Manor (G3) fool you. Lanerie guided him along a wild goose chase by getting squeezed, darting to the inside, and then the outside.  Roman’s Avenue should get better with more ground, and a better trip. Video: 6/30/12 Bashford Manor S. (G3)

Carried Interest (Henny Hughes – Missamerica Bertie, by Quiet American)

Trainer: Rick Violette Jr.

Jockey: Alan Garcia

His maiden win at Belmont was against a pedigree-strong field.   Route distances could be a problem.

Norumbega (Tiznow – Meghan’s Joy, by A.P. Indy)

Trainer: Claude McGaughey

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Shug McGaughey’s decision to switch to dirt seemed to do the trick for this Saratoga maiden breaker at Saratoga.  That victory was at 1 1/8 miles so distance should not be an issue for the son of Tiznow.  He won’t race until 2013 due to hurting both back ankles.

Dreaming of Julia (A.P. Indy – Dream Rush, by Wild Rush)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

A filly would normally not make the list this early given the unlikelihood of being pointed to the Derby, but this one is worth keeping an eye on. An absolute romp in the Meadow Star Stakes at Belmont by over 16 lengths put her on all of the early future wager lists. Video: 9/9/12 Meadow Star Stakes