Chasing The Derby: Dynamic Sky

Showing posts with label Dynamic Sky. Show all posts

More contenders arrive at Churchill// Trainers thinking ahead// Features on Hear the Ghost, Goldencents, Verrazano, Orb// Updated future odds// more...

The announcement by several trainers and owners of when they would ship their contenders to Churchill was made into something of a joke in Twitterland given the apparent common sense nature of the news. Those who are laughing are missing the rather important point of exactly how much time these colts will have to get acclimated and train over the Churchill track. Vyjack, for instance, will ship very soon after Saturday’s Wood, and seeing as he’s never shipped, let alone raced at Churchill, it’s a worthwhile and positive decision to hear. Verrazano will also ship shortly after the Wood for more than two weeks of preparation at Churchill. Trainer Todd Pletcher is always somewhat unpredictable from year-to-year with his pre-Derby strategy. Just last year he decided to train his two contenders in Florida and ship to Louisville the Tuesday before the Derby. Perhaps their 13th and 16th place finishes prompted him to revert back to his old strategy?// Three contenders shipped into Churchill Tuesday. Mylute, second by a neck to Revolutionary in the Louisiana Derby (G2), should have enough points to make the Derby gate. The decision by trainer Tom Amoss to remove blinkers seemed to do the trick, and with another five weeks of training Mylute could be sitting on an even bigger race on the first Saturday in May. Falling Sky was another arrival to Churchill, but he will move next week to Keeneland for the Blue Grass (G1) or to Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby (G1) seeing as he’s in need of more points. Dynamic Sky will also use the Kentucky Derby track in preparation for the Blue Grass and has the most room to make up on the point standings// Several writers and fans are jumping the gun on the potential dilemma John Velazquez could face with his Derby mount choice between Orb and Verrazano. It’s simple- if the race were held today he would be aboard Verrazano. Two main reasons: he’s the likely favorite and trainer Todd Pletcher is essentially Velazquez’s racing partner. If Verrazano lays an egg in the Wood Memorial, then Velazquez could have a real decision to make, but unless that happens, let’s assume he’s tied to the favorite// Matt Gardner at SB Nation comments on the lack of uniformity in speed figures between the Florida Derby (G1) and Louisiana Derby (G2). While BRIS, Equibase, and Performance Figures all have Revolutionary’s win at the Fair Grounds a faster race than Orb’s at Gulfstream, the most well-known speed figure, the Beyer, has the opposite. As I stated yesterday- and regardless of what speed figure you subscribe to- I believe the Florida Derby was the more impressive race given the competition and ease with which Orb won// Speaking of Orb, there’s a nice feature on him from Paul Moran at ESPN// Jockey Kevin Krigger is bullish on Goldencents’ chances in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and thinks the colt will relax in the early stages, something he was unable to do in the San Felipe (G2). Winner of that race, Hear the Ghost, will get more attention this time around and trainer Jerry Hollendorfer believes he can adjust to any pace scenario. Hollendorfer also said the plan after the Santa Anita Derby is for Hear the Ghost to stay in California up to three to five days before the Derby// According to an average winning distance chart based on sire line and damsire line crosses, Black Onyx has the best distance potential of all main Derby contenders. TrueNicks points out that last year’s winner I’ll Have Another only had a 6.93 furlong average despite other pedigree signs that suggested 10 furlongs was right up his alley. So, take the chart with a grain of salt// The latest Wynn Las Vegas future book has Revolutionary down to 8-1 and Orb to 7-1, which makes the latter the co-favorite with Verrazano. You will most likely get better odds on two of those by waiting for Derby Day// more…

Articles:

Santa Anita Derby another Ghost story? (Bloodhorse)

Kentucky Derby spot in sight for Goldencents, Krigger (DRF)

Verrazano continues family tradition (DRF)

An old-school approach to the Derby (ESPN)

Orb’s maiden victory- A key race (Sports Network)

John Velazquez faces very tough decision (The Kentucky Derby Post)

Mylute arrives at Churchill [plus Fallen Sky and Dynamic Sky] (Churchill Downs)

Mylute headed to Kentucky Derby if he has enough points (The Times-Picayune)

Distance questions begin for Kentucky Derby contenders (Bloodhorse Blog)

2013 Kentucky Derby: Contenders and analysis (SB Nation)

Titletown Five eyes Derby Trial, Preakness Stakes (DRF)

Where they’re going next (Downey Profile)

The bullet train Derby platform 4/1 [video] (Brisnet via YouTube)

Rancho Santa Fe couple has reason to be optimistic about this year’s Kentucky Derby (Rancho Santa Fe Review)

An unexpected turn [Shanghai Bobby Blog] (Courier Journal)

Future Odds:

Wynn Las Vegas 4/1 (View From Vegas)

William Hill 4/1 (View From Vegas)

Rankings:

Haskin’s Derby Dozen 4/2 (Bloodhorse)

Works:

Super Ninety Nine- SA- 4F- 47:20- H- 1/15

Den's Legacy- SA- 4F- 47:20- H- 1/15

Manando- SA- 4F- 48:40- H- 4/15

Weekend Review: Verrazano gets the grade, points// Hear the Ghost opportunistic in San Felipe// Ive Struck A Nerve off trail, Mr Palmer joins it// Key workouts// New Rankings

Tampa Bay Derby (G2)

Winner (pts): Verrazano (50)

2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Java’s War (20), Falling Sky (10), Dynamic Sky (5)

Chart: Equibase

Beyer/BRIS: 101/100

Replay: YouTube

Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

CTD Analysis:

It’s hard to find anything wrong with Verrazano’s victory in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), his stakes debut and first time going two-turns. He faced some adversity when stumbling out of the gate and sustaining a cut that appears to be more superficial than threatening, and also took dirt in the face from Falling Sky. The final time for the 1 1/16 mile run was 1:43.96, just over a second off the track record, and he earned a high 101 Beyer speed figure. Even more impressive was the fact he needed little urging from John Velazquez. The winning margin over Java’s War was three lengths, and it was another four lengths back to Falling Sky.

There was also something about Verrazano’s easy win in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) that was strange. Although he didn’t necessarily have to be in front, it didn’t look as if he was very comfortable in the early going. Verrazano was not giving Velazquez much trouble, but also didn’t seem as if he wanted to be around horses in general when opting to stay in the center of the track along the backstretch. Perhaps equine psychologist Kerry Thomas will offer more info, but I have to wonder how Verrazano will react in a field of 20, especially if he breaks behind a wall of horses or in tight quarters. Still, Verrazano is my top pick to win the Kentucky Derby as I feel his talent and speed is unmatched by anyone in his class.

Longshot Java’s War put in a good late run to get the place honors. Considering the pace was not blistering and he had to overcome some traffic issues, it was an admirable performance. Falling Sky also proved to be a good horse, but really had no excuse and probably should be considered a cut below top-shelf competition.

San Felipe (G2)

Winner (pts): Hear the Ghost (50)

2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Flashback (20), Tiz a Minister (10), Goldencents (5)

Chart: Equibase

Beyer/BRIS: 93/99

Replay: Bloodhorse

Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

CTD Analysis:

The main story coming out of the San Felipe (G2) was the lightning quick speed duel between star attractions Flashback and Goldencents in the middle stages of the race. That development allowed Hear the Ghost to a making a winning sustained run on the outside. Some may believe Flashback and Goldencents are still better than the winner, but you can’t fault him for running a winning race. The pace in the Kentucky Derby is usually brisk and Hear the Ghost may be able to use the tactic again. It was just his third career race and first going two turns so we could be seeing a new superstar emerge from the West.

You obviously can’t discount Flashback from being a serious Derby contender, who still hung on to finish second. It’s important to remember it was only his third career race as well and he not only had to deal with pressure from Goldencents but also Salutos Amigos. Goldencents’ jockey Kevin Krigger was critical of Julien Leparoux’s ride aboard Flashback, complaining Leparoux pressed the pace unnecessarily, but it was Krigger who fired the first shot when splitting the two in the early going. Leparoux did flank Goldencents for the remainder of the backstretch and into the turn, but to me it was not an unprofessional tactic. It will be difficult to change both colts’ running styles, but something will have to give if they meet again.

Third place finisher Tiz a Minister tends to get lost in the shuffle of the San Felipe discussion, but he closed well alongside Hear the Ghost to end up only a length off the lead. Added distance is a concern for the son of Minister’s Wild Cat.

Non-Derby points stakes races:

Private Terms Stakes

Laurel Park

Winner: Mr Palmer

Chart: Equibase

Recaps: Bloodhorse

Fred “Cappy” Capossela Stakes

Aqueduct

Winner: Maleeh

Chart: Equibase

Articles:

Verrazano on target for one more Derby prep (DRF)

Santa Anita Derby rematch looms between Flashback and Hear the Ghost (DRF)

Ive Struck a Nerve hurt, off Derby trail (DRF)

Carve beats rain at Oaklawn for Rebel workout (Bloodhorse)

Pletcher Derby hopefuls work at Palm Meadows (Bloodhorse)

Itsmyluckyday, Speak Logistics work at Calder (Brisnet)

Rankings
CTD Top 5 (CTD)

Star-Ledger Top 10 (Star-Ledger)

Workouts:

Saturday

Itsmyluckyday- CRC- 1M- 1.46:00- B- 1/3

Big Lute- OP- 5F- 59:60- B- 1/52

Texas Bling- OP- 5F- 1.01:00- B- 2/52

Sunbean- FG- 4F- 53:20- B- 66/68

My Name Is Michael- PAY- 4F- 49:00- B- 3/18

Always in a Tiz- OP- 4F- 48:60- B- 5/81

Speak Logistics- CRC- 4F- 49.40- B- 19/75

Nina's Dragon- GG- 7F- 1:26.40- H- 1/2

Manando- SA- 4F- 46:40- H- 1/11

Sunday

War Academy- SA- 5F- 1.00:80- H- 12/52

Super Ninety Nine- SA- 5F- 59:80- H- 2/52

Den's Legacy- SA- 5F- 59:80- H- 2/52

Dice Flavor- HOL- 5F- 1.01:80- H- 24/34

Mylute- FG- 7F- 1.27:40- B- 1/1

Normandy Invasion- PMM- 4F- 48:01- B- 2/39

Positively- PMM- 4F- 48:39- B- 6/39

Palace Malice- PMM- 4F- 49:40- B- 13/39

Delhomme- PMM- 5F- 1.00:88- B- 3/26

Capo Bastone- PMM- 5F- 1.01:48- B- 6/26

Revolutionary- PMM- 5F- 1.01:48- B- 6/26

Shanghai Bobby- PMM- 5F- 1.02:90- B- 18/26

Two turns, stakes company no problem for Verrazano in Tampa// Hear the Ghost takes advantage of quick pace in San Felipe

Tampa Bay Derby (G2)

Winner (pts): Verrazano (50)

2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Java’s War (20), Falling Sky (10), Dynamic Sky (5)

Chart: Equibase

Beyer: 101

Replay: Bloodhorse

Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

San Felipe (G2)

Winner (pts): Hear the Ghost (50)

2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Flashback (20), Tiz a Minister (10), Goldencents (5)

Chart: Equibase

Replay: Bloodhorse

Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

Verrazano, Flashback, Goldencents headline upcoming Derby points races// Proud Strike still on trail// Majestic Hussar, Bradester get time off// Updated future odds// more

Summary:

Entries were drawn for the two upcoming Kentucky Derby points races- the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita and Tampa Derby (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs. No surprises with Flashback and Goldencents squaring off in Southern California as expected and Verrazano set for his stakes and two-turn debut in Florida. All post positions, previews, and PPs can be found below// Aqueduct will host an intriguing sprint, although both headliners, Clawback and Whiskey Romeo, will probably stick to one-turn races for the foreseeable future// Eddie Kenneally is backing off training for both Bradester and Majestic Hussar. The trainer insists nothing is wrong with either, but easing up on Bradester particularly seems puzzling seeing as the colt has only raced once this year// A minority stake in recent Risen Star (G2) winner Ive Struck a Nerve was sold to Boston investment manager Paul Braverman// Proud Strike, who finished 8th in the Risen Star will get another shot to make the Derby in either the Rebel (G2) or Louisiana Derby (G2). Trainer Steve Asmussen thinks he’s better than his last effort// Edgar Prado will ride Palace Malice in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He replaces Rosie Napravnik who has decided to go to Gulfstream Park in order to ride Shanghai Bobby// Speaking of the 2-year-old Champion, trainer Todd Pletcher said Shanghai Bobby is on target for the Florida Derby// Updated Wynn Las Vegas Future odds were released with Flashback the favorite at 9-1 followed by Verrazano at 11-1. While I normally don’t like anything less than 50-1 this far out from the Derby, Itsmyluckyday at 18-1 could be a value play if he continues his good form in the Florida Derby. As Pletcher alluded to Wednesday, the impressive 1-2 runners from the Holy Bull have lost some buzz with the passage of time// more…

Upcoming Derby points races:

Tampa Bay Derby (G3)

Tampa Bay Downs

1 1/16 Miles

PPs: Click here

Time: 5:15 PM ET

TV: TVG

Previews: Brisnet / Bloodhorse

San Felipe (G2)

Santa Anita

1 1/16 Miles

PPs: Click here

Time: 6:35 PM ET

TV: TVG

Previews: Santa Anita / Brisnet / Bloodhorse

Upcoming non-Derby points stakes races:

Fred “Cappy” Capossela Stakes

Aqueduct

6 Furlongs

PPs: Click here

Time: 4:52 PM ET

TV: TVG

Previews: NYRA / DRF /

Articles:

Hear the Ghost could make noise in two turn debut at Santa Anita (DRF)

Casse has live one in Dynamic Sky for Tampa Bay Derby (DRF)

Shanghai Bobby on course for Florida Derby (Brisnet)

Kenneally gives Majestic Hussar, Bradester a rest (DRF)

Palace Malice picks up Prado for Louisiana Derby (Brisnet)

Bryant sells minority stake in Ive Struck a Nerve (DRF)

Proud Strike to get another shot on Derby trail (DRF)

Q&A with Vyjack owner (Courier Journal Blog)

Search for next superhorse resumes (ESPN)

The Triple Crown Watch: March 7 (ABR Live)

Kentucky Derby Report: March 7 (Brisnet)

Kentucky Derby Daily: March 6 (In The Money)

Who’s hot, who’s not: March 8 (DRF)

Tampa Bay Derby was perfect for Street Sense (Bloodhorse)

Futures

Wynn Las Vegas 3/4 (View From Vegas)

William Hill 3/4 (View From Vegas)

Rankings:

ESPN Top 10 (ESPN)

Kentucky Derby Top 20 (DRF)

Workouts:

Uncaptured- OTC- 5F- 1.00:00- B- 1/7 (3/5/13)

Integrity- PMM- 4F- 48:29- B- 1/13

Golden Soul- FG- 4F- 47:80- B- 4/46

He's Had Enough- SA- 3F- 36:20- H- 2/8

Quotes and Tweets:

"Noble Tune set to make first start since @BreedersCup Juvenile Turf in one mile turf allowance Sat. at Tampa Bay. Pataky Kid also entered" - J.J. Hysell via Twitter

Dynamic Sky gets new rider// Uncaptured in good shape for Spiral// Crowded Rebel won’t split// New rankings// more

Mark Casse wasn’t happy with Luis Contreras’ ride on Dynamic Sky in the Sam Davis (G3) several weeks ago, so has named Joel Rosario the new jockey for the upcoming Tampa Derby (G3). The trainer admitted that even a rider change might not be enough to catch the likely short-priced favorite Verrazano. On a conference call Tuesday, Casse also discussed Uncaptured, who remains on target for the Spiral Stakes (G3) at Turfway Park March 23. The Grade 2 winner worked in the morning at Ocala and Casse believes he’s matured physically and mentally from his 2-year-old season// Gary Contessa confirmed that the plan of attack for recent Palm Beach Stakes (G3) winner Rydilluc is the Spiral// As I mentioned yesterday, the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn is shaping up to be a popular race. For now, Oaklawn officials don’t foresee splitting the race into two divisions, although a full field is very likely. Bob Baffert all but confirmed Super Ninety Nine will return for the race with Rafael Bejarano aboard, and D. Wayne Lukas will call on Mike Smith to ride Oxbow. Both trainers will bring other likely entrants, as Baffert will ship Den’s Legacy, while Lukas will send Smarty Jones Stakes winner Will Take Charge. Other probables include Todd Pletchers’ Capo Bastone, Park City, and Delhomme; Ron Ellis trainee Treasury Bill; recent stakes winner Departing; and locals Texas Bling, Always In A Tiz, Carve, Big Lute, So Raise Yourglass and Heaven’s Runway// Lukas also mentioned that recent allowance winner Channel Isle will go in the Louisiana Derby (G2), Red Wings could go to the Spiral, and Titletown Five may go to the Sunland Derby (G3) or Louisiana Derby// Omega Star will be stepping into the deep end Saturday in the San Felipe, which will be his graded stakes debut. Flashback and Goldencents headline the race, but trainer John Sheriffs thinks the added distance will suit him. Dennis O’Neill said in a conference call Tuesday that Goldencents could train up to the Kentucky Derby if he earns enough points from the San Felipe. While many trainers have taken the “less is more” theory heading into the Derby of late, that would make Goldencents very light in seasoning heading into a much longer and tougher race// You can read below for the story behind Verrazano’s name, but I’ll warn you it’s not all that interesting// more…

Articles:

Rosario to ride Dynamic Sky in Tampa Derby (Bloodhorse)

Omega Star getting tough test in San Felipe (DRF)

Super Ninety Nine, Oxbow part of big group pointing to Rebel Stakes (DRF)

Oxbow staying home for Rebel (DRF)

Uncaptured now Spiral-bound after another strong workout (Courier Journal Blog)

Turfway’s Spiral popular prep for Kentucky Derby hopefuls (In The Money)

Call it abridged version: How Verrazano got his name (Courier Journal Blog)

Triple Crown qualities [video interview with Dale Romans] (YouTube)

Where they’re going next (The Downey Profile)

Kentucky Derby Daily: March 5 (In The Money)

Watch list for March (Horseracing Nation)

Gotham Stakes recap [video] (DRF)

Derby Dreams: Ive Struck A Nerve (Paulick Report)

Triple Crown Nominations- Updated PPs (Brisnet)

Rankings:

Jerry Bossert’s Top 15 (NJ Daily News)

Florida Filly’s dark horse Derby picks part 2 (Horseracing Nation)

Workouts:

Will Take Charge- OP- 6F- 1.13:60- B- 1/2

Oxbow- OP- 6F- 1.13:80- B- 2/2

Code West- SA- 4F- 48:60- H- 15/31

Hear the Ghost- HOL- 4F- 48:60- H- 3/21

Quotes and Tweets:

"Rydilluc came back bouncing out of the Palm Beach so barring any steps backward we are on track for the Spiral on March 23rd"- Gary Contessa via Twitter

"Super 99 now definite for Rebel. Bejarano retains mount. That means Shakin It Up to Sunland Derby 3-24 for Baffert"- Jay Privman via Twitter

"Mark Casse says we've only seen about 75-80% of Dynamic Sky's ability, but cautions that even at 100% he may not be able to beat Verrazano"- ABR Live via Twitter

"Java's War will be entered in Tampa Bay Derby tomorrow and is doing "super" according to Kenny McPeek"- Sid Fernando via Twitter

"Casse: Gunderman could go in Sunland Derby, to Oaklawn or (sounds more likely) Illinois Derby"- Jennie Rees via Twitter

"Dennis O'Neill says that if he has enough points @TheGoldencents will skip the @santaanitapark Derby and train up to the #KYDerby"- ABR Live via Twitter

"Winning 3yo Beyers last week: Departing-97; Clearly Now-96; Vyjack-93; Coolusive-91; Fordubai & Rydilluc-89; Gunderman-87"- DerbyContenders via Twitter

Praise continues for Vyjack// Super Niney Nine blazes 4-furlongs// Probables for Tampa Derby and San Felipe// more…

Vyjack was still the hot Kentucky Derby trail topic a few days after his decisive come-from-behind victory in the Gotham (G3). Trainer Rudy Rodriguez thinks the relative seclusion at Aqueduct during training hours has paid dividends for Vyjack as opposed to the hustle and bustle of southern Florida mornings. Bad behavior has always been an issue for Vyjack, even after he was gelded, but he has shown slight improvement// Super Ninety Nine is all but confirmed for the Rebel (G2) March 16. The dominating Southwest (G3) winner worked a blistering 4-furlongs Monday morning in 46:40 and has apparently “bounced back quickly” from that race according to DRF’s Jay Privman. He also mentioned Todd Pletcher’s Delhomme and Ron Ellis’ Treasury Bill are headed to the Rebel, which is shaping up to be a crowded race// As expected, Al Stall’s Departing will move up to a Derby points race next time out. Most likely it will be the Louisiana Derby (G2), with the Sunland Derby (G3) or Rebel (G2) as possible alternatives. Departing earned a 97 Beyer speed figure for his easy win in the Texas Heritage Stakes Saturday, which puts him right in the mix of top contenders// Two big Kentucky Derby points races are on tap for Saturday- the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) at Tampa Bay and San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita- and each features highly regarded contenders with low Kentucky Derby Future Wager odds. Current individual favorite Verrazano (9-1) will try two turns for the first time in Tampa over a surface that has proven to be challenging for many shippers in the past. 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver finished 3rd in the race along his route to Louisville, and 2007 Derby winner Street Sense won the race only by a nose. Verrazano will face a minimum of six horses including Purple Egg, Dynamic Sky, Falling Sky, Honorable Dillon, and Java’s War// Flashback (12-1 in KDFW #2) and Goldencents (24-1) are both on target for a showdown in the San Felipe (G2) Saturday. Other probables include Hear the Ghost, Kochees, Omega Star, Salutos Amigos, and Tiz A Minister// Balance the Books, who was penciled in for Sunday Palm Beach (G3) before spiking a fever, will point instead for the Spiral (G3) at Turfway. The Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) third place finisher would enter the Kentucky Derby having never raced on dirt before// Two-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer Nick Zito will serve a 15-day suspension for a clenbuterol positive from a winner at Aqueduct over a year ago// more…

Articles:

Vyjack makes big jump with victory in Gotham [with interview video] (Courier Journal)

Vyjack- a prime Kentucky Derby player (Miami Herald)

Vyjack benefiting from extended stay in New York (DRF)

The unlikely story of Vyjack (Bloodhorse)

Departing ready for bigger stakes after easy win in Texas Heritage (DRF)

Kentukcy Derby Under the Radar: Departing (DRF)

Tampa Bay Derby a major prep for Kentucky Derby (DRF)

Spiral Stakes at Turfway next for Balance the Books (DRF)

Flashback drills for Saturday’s San Felipe [with probables] (Santa Anita)

Kentucky Derby Daily: March 4 (In The Money)

Zito to serve 15-day suspension for clenbuterol positive (DRF)

Rankings:

Steve Haskin’s Derby Dozen 3/3/13 (Bloodhorse Blog)

HRI’s Triple Crown power rankings (Horseracing Insider)

Workouts:

Proud Strike- FG- 5F- 1.02:00- B- 12/24

Mylute- FG- 4F- 51:40- B- 25/35

Super Ninety Nine- SA- 4F- 46:40- H- 1/44

War Academy- SA- 4F- 46:80- H- 2/44

Quotes and Tweets:

"Tiz the Truth, Baffert mdn winner 2-2, missed training time with 1/4 crack. Back training now, but next start delayed"- Jay Privman via Twitter

"Baffert could send Super 99 back to OP for Rebel 3-16. He's bounced back quickly from Southwest. Den's Legacy going there for sure"- Jay Privman via Twitter

"Baffert will run both Flashback and Carving in San Felipe Saturday, he said this morning"- Jay Privman via Twitter

"Delhomme set for 2013 debut in Rebel 3-16. Garrett Gomez has picked up mount, Pletcher said"- Jay Privman via Twitter

"San Vicente runner-up Treasury Bill, heading to Rebel for next start, worked 6f in 1:14.80 for R. Ellis at BHP this am"- Jay Privman via Twitter

"Pletcher "can't find a pimple" on Overanalyze, 5th in Remsen Saturday. He's back at Palm Meadows. Next start undecided. Leading options for Overanalyze are Wood, Ark. Derby, Pletcher said, but won't know for sure until he returns to training"- Jay Privman via Twitter\

"More Pletcher: Revolutionary, Withers winner, heading to LA Derby 3-30. Wood, Fla Derby had been considered, too"- Jay Privman via Twitter

"Exciting Palm Beach winner Rydilluc will make his next start in the Spiral Stakes"- Steve Haskin via Twitter

"Long-forgotten Power Broker worked 6f at SA yesterday. He, Tiz the Truth, could make Hail Mary play for Derby in Wood or SA Derby"- Jay Privman via Twitter

It’s all about Pletcher// Big Lute pointing for Rebel// Rider switch for Dynamic Sky// Derby Future Pool #1 starts Friday// more...

Summary:

With the craziness of last Saturday finally subsiding, it’s difficult to get excited for the upcoming weekend when no Kentucky Derby point races, much less key races are scheduled. The biggest event will be the opening of the Derby Future Wager Pool and Dick Downey wonders if the absence of big races will mean more or less wagers. I would bet on the latter. Entries and opening odds will be announced Wednesday// Big Lute, a 4 3/4 length maiden breaker at Oaklawn last Friday, will point for the Rebel (G2) March 16, with a possible two-turn allowance beforehand. Trainer Steve Hobby said that’s the ideal scenario, although it would be squeezing three races within a six-week period. Not only that, but depending on how he performs in the Rebel, Hobby would have to decide whether to race Big Lute in the Arkansas Derby (G1), or give the colt a long eight week break for the Kentucky Derby// Butterfly Soul raced last time out against the boys in the California Derby at Golden Gate, but trainer Genaro Vallejo said the filly will probably race next in the California Oaks as opposed to the El Camino Real (G3). Another try against colts is still a possibility// With his recent victory in the Withers, as well as saddling the most talked about allowance winner in quite some time, we were reminded of Todd Pletcher’s embarrassment of Derby contender riches. Two blog postings from Tuesday discuss this year’s Todd squad, and delve into who’s the best and what it must be like to plot the trail for so many contenders// Jay Privman from the Daily Racing Form reported that Dynamic Sky, 2nd in the Sam Davis Saturday, will have a new rider next time out. No word yet on who that will be. Trainer Mark Casse also reiterated to Privman that Uncaptured will turn up next March 23rd in the Spiral Stakes (G3) or the undercard race the Rushaway at Turfway// more...

Articles:

Big Lute will be pointed to Rebel Stakes (DRF)

Derby Future Wager Pool 1 on a quiet weekend (The Downey Profile)

13 thoughts (ESPN Blog)

Who is Todd Pletcher’s top conteder? (In The Money Blog)

Is Todd Pletcher’s Kentucky Derby cup too full? (Horseracing Nation)

Butterfly Soul likely to face fillies again in California Oaks (DRF)

Borel still awaiting clearance from doctor (DRF)

Rankings:

The Shakeup Sweet 16 (Zipse at the Track)

Workouts:

Always in a Tiz- GP- 4F- 49:85- B- 10/13

Quotes and Tweets:

"Uncaptured, Casse's other top Derby prospect, pointing for Spiral or Rushaway at Turfway 3-23. First breeze of yr early next week"- Jay Privman via Twitter

"Dynamic Sky, Sam Davis runner-up, to have new rider for TB Derby, trainer M. Casse told me. Luis Contreras out. No replacement yet" - Jay Privman via Twitter

Buzz builds for Dynamic Sky// Updated Wynn Odds// Joha off trail// Speed figs slow for weekend winners// He’s Had Enough breezes 5 panels

Doug McCoy writes for the Daily Racing Form that Dynamic Sky’s Pasco Stakes win had many thinking "they may well have seen a horse with true Triple Crown potential". It’s hard for me to get excited over a mid-January minor stakes where the winner pounced on a blistering pace. Nonetheless, perhaps training and the addition of blinkers truly propelled him to the next level?// The three horses that generated any buzz over the weekend- aforementioned Pasco winner Dynamic Sky, California Derby winner Zeewat, and debut winner Demonic- all registered sub-90 Beyer speed figures for their victories. The 88 for Dynamic Sky seemed especially low given how close he was to the track record, but a lot of other factors go into that number// The connections of grade 1 winner Joha have decided to withdraw him from the Keeneland January horses of all ages sale due to an injury. Given the fact most prospective buyers would have hoped to have him for a run at the Derby, the original connections will instead point him for summer and fall racing// Todd Pletcher says so far so good for his top prospects making their scheduled next races: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Shanghai Bobby (Holy Bull), Remsen (G2) victor Overanalyze (Gotham Stakes), and CashCall Futurity (G1) winner Violence (Fountain of Youth). The prior two had official moves yesterday, while Violence is expected to have his first breeze of 2013 on Sunday// He’s Had Enough had a 5-furlong move from the gate this morning at Santa Anita. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) runner-up is still on target for the Robert Lewis (G2) on Feb 2// The Courier Journal posted updated Derby future odds today. Violence remains the favorite at 12-1// more…

Articles:

Dynamic Sky shows Triple Crown potential (DRF)

Shanghai Bobby on schedule for Holy Bull (DRF)

Can Goldencents go the distance? (Horse Racing Nation)

Mr. Prospector- The key to finding the Kentucky Derby winner (Sports Network)

Connections plan to race Joha this Summer (Bloodhorse)

Future Book:

Wynn Las Vegas 1/14/13 (Courier Journal Blog)

Workouts:

Always in a Tiz- GP- 5F- 1.01:22- B- 5/13

He's Had Enough- SA- 5F- 1.01:80- H- 26/52 (from the gate)

Tweets:

Trainer Bob Hess says Merit Man won't attempt @KentuckyDerby campaign. 'Everything about him says sprinter'- Jennie Rees

Beyer Speed Figures:

Dynamic Sky (88), Zeewat (80), Demonic (88)

Zeewat prevails in California Derby// Dynamic Sky up in time in Pasco

Results

California Derby- Golden Gate Fields

Winner: Zeewat

Chart: Equibase

Replay: Bloodhorse

Recap: Bloodhorse

Pasco Stakes- Tampa Bay Downs

Winner: Dynamic Sky

Chart: Equibase

Replay: Bloodhorse

Recap: Brisnet / DRF / Bloodhorse

Articles

Is the 2013 Kentucky Derby winner an N2L? (Horseracing Nation)

Kentucky Derby Report 1-11-13 [with rankings] (Brisnet)

Workouts

Itsmyluckyday- CRC- 5F- 1.01:00- H- 2/37

Bradester- PMM- 4F- 48:30- B- 6/38

Dewey Square- GP- 6F- 1.13:80- B- 2/5

Frac Daddy- GP- 5F- 59:89- B- 2/26

Fury Kapcori- HOL- 6F- 1.13:80- H- 2/7

Clarity on status of Archwarrior// San Felipe next for Goldencents// Fortify to Dubai// Integrity wins debut at Gulfstream

Summary:

Yesterday we had a Tweet from a suspicious source announcing much-hyped Archwarrior is off the Derby trail, and today we have a little more clarity. Jennie Rees at the Courier Journal stated via Twitter the maiden winner will have a break in Kentucky and will be under a tight timeframe to qualify for the Derby. The particular injury or ailment remains unnannounced// Rees also stated via Twitter that Fortify, a multiple graded stakes placed runner who many believe will get better with more experience, will winter in Dubai. If history is any indication, this is the wrong way to get to Louisville in May// Brad Free at the Daily Racing Form draws comparisons to last year’s Derby winning tandem of I’ll Have Another and jockey Mario Gutierrez to this year’s contender Goldencents and rider Kevin Krigger. Superstitious minds might see this as a jinx. O’Neill is leaning towards a pre-Derby strategy of the San Felipe (G2) March 9 followed by the Santa Anita Derby (G1) April 6. The backup plan is for Goldencents to race in the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn February 18 then the Sunland Derby (G3) March 24. The former scenario seems to make more sense to minimize traveling and allow the best spacing between races// A nice write-up by J.J. Hysell on the success of Lion Heart sired juveniles from last year. It will be interesting to see how Uncaptured, Bradester, and Purple Egg perform in their sophomore year// There was an interesting maiden special weight at Gulfstream today that featured horses owned by super chef Bobby Flay and University of Louisville basketball coach Rick Pitino. Neither fared very well in their first start, while Chad Brown’s first time starter Integrity stole the show going gate-to-wire for a 3 1/2 length win// Brown also revealed that Normandy Invasion, 2nd last time out to Overanalyze in the Remsen (G2), will most likely have just two starts before the Derby. He’s opting to skip the preps at Gulfstream and ship to the Fair Grounds for the Risen Star (G2) February 23. Brown envisions the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct April 6 after that// Rankings and contender lists continue to pop up with the New Year. Byron King from Daily Racing reveals his early top 10 with Frac Dady on top// more…

Articles

San Felipe likely next for Kentucky Derby prospect Goldencents (DRF)

Goldencents, Krigger could be this year’s version of I’ll Have Another, Gutierrez (DRF)

Normandy Invasion eyes Risen Star (DRF)

Casse wants to test Dynamic Sky in Pasco Stakes (DRF)

Zeewat faces new challengers in California Derby (DRF)

A lion’s share of Lion Hearts (In The Money Blog)

Rankings

Kentucky Derby top 10 list is a fun way to usher in new year (DRF)

In Depth: Breeders' Cup Juvenile PPs, Video, more

Divisive as much as prestigious, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile has always held intrigue on Championship day and beyond. Hope springs eternal with every running, but usually ends with disappointment come May. Many promising 2-year-olds have convincingly won the race only to either fail winning the Kentucky Derby six months later or veer off the difficult path to get there. In 28 runnings only one winner has worn the Roses the following year. Considering the Juvenile winner is usually Champion 2-year-old and early favorite for the Derby, this 4% winning percentage is especially baffling. As many lumps as the winners have taken, the Juvenile field as a whole usually includes strong contenders that hold up well for the Classics. The most recent Kentucky Derby consisted of 9 horses that raced in the 2011 Breeders Cup Juvenile, which represented close to half the field.

This 2012 Juvenile is knocked down in stature with the introduction of the new Kentucky Derby point system. In year’s past the winner was guaranteed a spot in the Derby gate given the huge graded earnings score, but this year the race only awards the winner 10 “points”, putting him on equal footing as the winners of such races as the Delta Jackpot, Grey Stakes, and Smarty Jones Stakes.

Nonetheless, the Juvenile still boasts a huge 2 million dollar purse and features some of the best 2-year-olds we’ve seen all year, including early Derby future book favorite Shanghai Bobby and second favorite Power Broker. The nine entrants have combined earnings of 28 points for the 2013 Kentucky Derby and look to earn even more Saturday.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)

Santa Anita Park

1 1/16 Miles

PPs: Click here

Race Video

Title Contender

9/29/12 Santa Anita MSW

7/28/12 Del Mar MSW

Speak Logistics

10/13/12 Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes

8/12/12 Monmouth MSW

7/8/12 Monmouth MSW