Divisive as much as
prestigious, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile has always held intrigue on
Championship day and beyond. Hope
springs eternal with every running, but usually ends with disappointment come
May. Many promising 2-year-olds
have convincingly won the race only to either fail winning the Kentucky Derby
six months later or veer off the difficult path to get there. In 28 runnings only one winner has worn
the Roses the following year.
Considering the Juvenile winner is usually Champion 2-year-old and early
favorite for the Derby, this 4% winning percentage is especially baffling. As many lumps as the winners have
taken, the Juvenile field as a whole usually includes strong contenders that
hold up well for the Classics. The
most recent Kentucky Derby consisted of 9 horses that raced in the 2011
Breeders Cup Juvenile, which represented close to half the field.
This 2012 Juvenile is knocked
down in stature with the introduction of the new Kentucky Derby point
system. In year’s past the winner
was guaranteed a spot in the Derby gate given the huge graded earnings score,
but this year the race only awards the winner 10 “points”, putting him on equal
footing as the winners of such races as the Delta Jackpot, Grey Stakes, and
Smarty Jones Stakes.
Nonetheless, the Juvenile
still boasts a huge 2 million dollar purse and features some of the best
2-year-olds we’ve seen all year, including early Derby future book favorite
Shanghai Bobby and second favorite Power Broker. The nine entrants have combined earnings of 28 points for
the 2013 Kentucky Derby and look to earn even more Saturday.
The Thoroughbred world is
rightfully focused on the Breeders Cup events taking place Friday and Saturday
at Churchill Downs. As for Derby
implications, there are three events for Juvenile colts and geldings. While the main Juvenile dirt contest
has gotten a bad rap for only producing one dual Breeders Cup/Derby winner,
finishing in the top three shows a few more positive signs. In 29 Breeders’ Cup runnings, 3 have ended
up winning the Derby, 2 were runners up, and 5 received show money.
Past Performances, race
videos, and articles for all Juvenile races can be found in the
Breeders’ Cup section// All of the contenders have put in their final
works, which can be viewed below// Our own selections will be posted later this
week.
In non-Breeders Cup news,
there was a graded race at Churchill Sunday. Motor City was the victor of the Iroquois Stakes (G3) and
showed he prefers dirt over synthetic// Churchill had an interesting all 2-year-old
card that day which led to some promising maiden and allowance winners…
Basmati finally broke his maiden after five
previous tries (two in graded company).
He’s a son of Borrego, a grade one winner at 10 furlongs. A mere $35,000 purchase at the OBS
2-year-old in training sale, Basmati’s dam is a half sister to a graded stakes
winner at 8.5 furlongs. His catalog page can be viewed here
Works:
10/26/11 Trinniberg CD-
3F- 37:60- B- 7/12
10/26/11 Fort Loudon CRC-
5F- 1.02:60- B- 1/2
10/27/11 Sweet Swap SA- 4F- 47:80- H- 5/27
10/27/11 Creative Cause
HOL- 5F- 1.00:00- H- 2/23
10/28/11 Lucky Chappy
KEE- 4F- 48:00- B- 5/30
10/28/11 Union Rags FH-
5F- 1.00:80- B- 1/5
10/29/11 Majestic City SA- 5F- 1.03:40- B- 4/8 (Turf)
Pre-entries were released for the Breeders’ Cup on Wednesday.For links to free PPs and race videos of all Juvenile entrants click here. Information on the Juvenile Turf (G2) and new Juvenile Sprint will be available later.
Hansen, an overly impressive winner of the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Stakes at Turfway, dominated juvenile headlines this past week. I’m not completely on the bandwagon just yet// Three graded 2-year-old races this weekend. Check the upcoming section for pps and race videos// The connections of Majestic City pulled an audible by announcing he will run in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland October 8th instead of Saturday’s Norfolk (G1) at Santa Anita, which would have been an intriguing rematch with Drill and Creative Cause// Updated links for future odds and prop bets// more…
Thoroughbred racing fans have always been fascinated with the dominating performance. Top-of-the-list for most is Secretariat’s 1973 Belmont Stakes romp with the classic snapshot of jockey Ron Turcotte looking over his shoulder in the stretch. The space, separation, power, and dominance of runaway victories can easily induce goose bumps and in certain instances solidify a horse’s place in racing legend.
When a 2-year-old puts on a commanding display early in his career, dreams of buyouts, roses, and legend run wild. Case-in-point is Hansen, a juvenile colt who has won his first two races by a combined 25 1/2 lengths on polytrack, including Turfway Park’s Kentucky Cup Juvenile Stakes last Saturday. Praise and platitudes from the connections, fans, and turf writers soon followed.
Jockey Victor Lebron said Hansen is the best horse he’s ever ridden and could be his Kentucky Derby mount. Wynn Las Vegas quickly made him the co-favorite of the Breeders Cup Juvenile at 6-1 (from 40-1). Owner Kendall Hansen said Hansen is the “horse of a lifetime” and claimed the phone lines are open for anyone interested in owning a percentage.
Despite the accolades and visual performance, there are reasons to temper enthusiasm. Hansen’s competition has been less than average. Of the 14 horses he has faced in two races, 8 are non-winners, 5 have only graduated the maiden special ranks, and 1 has a maiden claiming win.
Matt Gardner at Down The Stretch They Come points out Hansen ran a slow final 3/16th due to his torrid opening quarter and half mile splits and may find trouble down the road. I also agree the going could get a lot tougher if he continues to use a front-running style against better competition and on Churchill’s dirt surface. The final piece of ammunition for all of the doubters will be Hansen’s Beyer speed figure of 80, which is merely average.
A son of 9-furlong Wood Memorial winner Tapit, Hansen is a homebred out of a Sir Cat mare. Seeing as the Kentucky Cup Juvenile was not graded, Hansen could have difficulty even making the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile field, a race that is oftentimes overfilled. The new Juvenile Sprint could be a fallback option, although his breeding and buzz warrant a try in the more prestigious race.
A relatively quiet week with one graded turf contest for Juveniles and lackluster speed figure results from all maiden, allowance, and stakes winners// Margano, a full brother to 2006 Kentucky winner Barbaro, trailed the field most of the way in his debut at Belmont Saturday but eventually made a mild move for a 7th place finish// A half-brother to Preakness winner Shackleford made his debut at Laurel on Friday. Unlike his front-running sibling, Stephanoatsee started in the back of the pack and showed an impressive turn of foot to almost catch the winner// A majority stake in impressive maiden winner and CTD NP Fire On Ice was sold to Magna Entertainment founder Frank Stronach// No Juvenile graded contests this weekend, although things will start to heat up as the calendar to turns to October…
In a matter of eight days, freshman sire Scat Daddy has skyrocketed up the leading sire list for 2-year-olds. He was represented in last week’s Arlington-Wasington Futurity (G3) with Shared Property and most recently in Woodbine’s Summer Stakes (G3) with winner Finale.
Since switching to turf, Finale is undefeated with wins in a maiden, listed stakes, and now graded stakes. He was sent off as the short-priced favorite in the Summer Stakes (G3) on Saturday and flattered his backers with a professional effort.
Sitting just off the pacesetters Excaper and Maritimer, John Velazquez guided Finale along the outside to meet them head-on in the turn for home. With urging, Finale quickly dispatched Maritimer before engaging Excaper in a spirited stretch duel. It should be noted Excaper fought gallantly and was even bullied slightly towards the rail by the winner.
Velazquez indicated that Finale never really liked the soft turf and also hit the gate at the start which makes the win even more impressive. The final margin was just 3/4 of a length and final time for the 1 mile was 1:35.51.
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G2) seems to be the likely year-end target, but even considering his struggles on dirt, you can’t rule out a Derby campaign completely. His pedigree suggests he could excel on dirt and there have been plenty of recent Derby winners that showed promise on grass-- either through performance or bloodlines.
As we stated last week, sire Scat Daddy was a successful juvenile and 3-year-old along the Derby trail with wins in the Florida Derby and Fountain Of Youth, among other graded stakes victories. Finale is a half brother to West Virginia Derby winner Bright One (9 furlongs). He was a $175,000 purchase and his catalog page can be viewed here
Burning Time took the Foolish Pleasure Stakes at Calder by surprise when he sprung to action heading into the far turn. He only had the pacesetter Personal Interest to catch, but it was initially a 6-length difference to make up. Burning Time seemed to switch leads and swerve several times down the stretch but still extended his winning margin to 2 1/2 lengths in the end.
The favorite was CTD NP Midnight Serenade, who never fired when asked in the stretch. Personal Interest and Bartolome completed the trifecta. According to trainer David Fawkes, Burning Time is headed to the Florida Stallion Stakes on October 15.
Burning Time’s sire Burning Roma was a multiple graded stakes winner on both dirt and turf and at distances up to 9 furlongs. Burning Time is out of an unraced mare who is by Gilded Time who won the Breeders Cup Juvenile.
2YO Non-Graded Stakes Results:
9/14/11 C. B. Afflerbaugh S.- FPX- Winner: Runstevierunchart
9/16/11 Buffalo S.- ASD- Winner: Jon’s Golden Runchart