We may become jaded along
the Derby Trail, but it’s always a surprise nonetheless when an injury is
reported out of nowhere. Thursday afternoon it was announced Hear the Ghost,
winner of the San Felipe (G2) and second favorite in Saturday’s Santa Anita
Derby (G1), had a “small injury” to his front leg. He’ll need around 90 days to
heal, thus is officially ruled off the trail. His absence is truly unfortunate,
as it appeared Hear the Ghost was on an upward trajectory and was not only a
real threat at Santa Anita, but also in the division overall// Selections are
beginning to trickle in for the two big Saturday preps. Although most
handicappers are deciding between Verrazano and Vyjack in the Wood Memorial,
they’re not on top of everyone’s ticket.
Ellis Star believes
Elnaawi is primed for an upset// I side with Byron King in thinking Super
Ninety Nine could be the value play in the Santa Anita Derby. Although he calls
his last race “a clunker”- something I don’t completely agree with- King feels
Baffert would not run Super Ninety Nine against tough company and two
stablemates if he didn’t believe in his ability// more…
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Will
Take Charge has never really gotten any respect. Even after upsetting the
Smarty Jones Stakes at 12-1, he was only 7-1 in the follow-up Southwest (G3).
An 18-length defeat in the slop was all the ammo most bettors needed to write him
off for the remaining Oaklawn series of races. On Saturday in the Rebel (G2) he
made himself known once again with a well-timed come-from-behind victory down
the stretch over stablemate Oxbow.
Will
Take Charge’s break and early going was clean but he did have to navigate some
traffic and make a wide move into the far turn. While some call the fractions just
slightly faster than average, I think a 23.36 quarter and 47.19 half are quick for
a 1 1/16 mile contest and did help Will Take Charge make up ground. The Beyer/BRIS
speed figures of 95/101 are respectable, and despite the inevitable improvement
of competition in upcoming races, Will Take Charge should be a threat
considering his running style and proven class.
Runner-up
Oxbow garnered just as much respect as the winner, if not more, based on his
wide trip in the first half of the race. An argument can be made that Mike
Smith moved too soon before the 2nd turn too, but he claims it was “the hand
that was dealt to us”. I don’t buy it, but nonetheless it was a gutsy and
encouraging effort from the other Lukas trainee.
Den’s
Legacy seems to always be in the mix, with his show in the Rebel representing
the fourth consecutive in-the-money finish in a Derby points race. He’s always
at least a length behind the winner, and never making a strong final move, but
his constant presence should be noted. Den’s Legacy probably needs another good
finish to earn enough points for the Kentucky Derby.
TV
analysts and others commented on a “no-show” performance by favorite Super
Ninety Nine. Even the colt’s connections couldn’t come up with a valid excuse
other than a “deep track”. Maybe I watched a different race, but I saw multiple
excuses. Starting from the outside post in a ten-horse field, Super Ninety Nine
was kept wide into the first turn by Title Contender who was really urged in
the opening strides by Luis Quinonez. Although Super Ninety Nine settled in the
backstretch and was in a good position, he ran into more trouble down the
stretch when sandwiched by Oxbow and Den’s Legacy and forced to pull back. By
that time the race had already taken it’s toll on Super Ninety Nine and he
threw in the towel. I believe with a better postposition and trip Super Ninety
Nine could be heard from again.
The
day after the Rebel, next race plans were already tentatively scheduled for the
top finishers. D. Wayne Lukas will separate his one-two duo by sending winner
Will Take Charge to Keeneland for the Blue Grass (G1) and keeping Oxbow at
Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby (G1). Third place Den’s Legacy will also return
to Oaklawn, while Bob Baffert will look for other options for dissapointing
well beaten favorite Super Ninety Nine// The Sunland Derby (G3) is shaping up
to be a popular race. With a virtual automatic entry to the Kentucky Derby for
the winner and $800,000 purse it’s no surprise// As usual, a bevy of contenders
put in official workouts over the weekend. Shanghai Bobby always gets ink
following a breeze, and remains on target for the Florida Derby (G1). His foe
Itsmyluckyday breezed at Calder Saturday, while another likely Florida Derby
entrant Orb is set for a workout Monday// Recent San Felipe (G2) winner Hear
the Ghost didn’t get much time off seeing as he breezed four panels at
Hollywood, which is just a day over a week from that race// Finally, be sure to
keep tabs on two winners from Friday. War Academy won an allowance at Santa
Anita by over three lengths, while Todd Pletcher trained Zaikov trounced his
competition in a maiden contest at Gulfstream by over fourteen lengths. It’s
getting late and Pletcher indicated Zaikov’s next race would be an allowance,
so it’s unlikely he’ll point for the Derby. War Academy on the other hand will
take a shot in an upcoming 170-point Derby prep// more…
CTD Analysis: Taking dirt in the early
going, swinging wide and racing that way the rest of the race, and unleashing a
devastating late kick down the stretch, Vyjack was much the best in Saturday’s
Gotham (G3). His journey was all the more impressive considering it was a large
field and the pace was also slow. The Beyer and BRIS speed ratings came back a
respectable 93/99, but they don’t jump off the page. Some will question
Vyjack’s competition, but on paper it was not as weak as some other recent
Kentucky Derby points races. The lone graded stakes winner, Overanalyze, was
coming off a 4-month layoff after winning the Remsen (G2), and that race
continues to not hold up well. Still, others had raced admirably in past graded
company and a few like Elnaawi showed promise winning impressive maidens.
Distance
did not seem to be an issue for Vyjack visually, although his pedigree on both
sides doesn’t shout 10 furlongs. The next challenge in the Wood Memorial (G1)
will be a stiff test with the added distance and presence of highly touted
Revolutionary.
While
Vyjack deservedly gets most of the attention for his victory, there were a
couple traffic jams worth mentioning. 2nd place finisher West Hills Giant bore
in from the 10 post and closed off the lane for Elnaawi, causing the colt and
jockey Channing Hill to leap and alter course. Elnaawi still fought the bit on
the backstretch but was able to make a good closing run just inside of Vyjack. The
assistant to trainer Kiaran McLaughlin was encouraged with the stakes debut and
will train the colt up to the Wood. West Hills Giant will also move on to the
Wood, and while the betting public was surprised with his performance the
colt’s connections claim he was training forwardly. He did dictate a mild pace,
which could be a challenge to repeat farther down the trail.
The
beginning of the race was tight for a lot of others, including 4th place Siete
de Oros. One of the few who got away with little harm, aside from the winner,
was favorite Overanalyze. Jockey John Velazquez had no excuse for his charge’s
empty effort other than wondering if perhaps he needed the race. Unfortunately,
I think there’s a good chance Overanalyze’s best racing is behind him.
CTD Analysis: As is usually the case when a 2-year-old Champion fails to
win his 3-year-old debut, the follow-up analysis focuses just as much on the beaten
favorite as the surprising winner. In the case of the Holy Bull (G3), winner
Itsmyluckyday deserves the lion’s share of attention. It was as close to
perfection as you could ask for in a horse race- an excellent ride by jockey
Elvis Trujillo, a professional and mature stalking journey from the winner, and
an eye-popping final time that broke a track record. His Beyer speed figure of
104 is the highest of his class. The day clearly belonged to Itsmyluckyday and
trainer Eddie Plesa Jr., and they deserve to now be in the same serious Kentucky
Derby discussions as Violence, Todd Pletcher, Goldencents, Doug O’Neill, D.
Wayne Lukas, Flashback, Bob Baffert, and Shanghai Bobby. The colt apparently came out of the
race “110%” and will train for the Florida Derby (G1) March 30.
As the connections
and others stated, Shanghai Bobby’s 2nd place finish was admirable considering
it was his first race in almost 3 months, he set a solid pace, and he cleared
the remainder of the field by over 11 lengths. His 100 Beyer figure was good
enough to win anywhere else on the trail. There was some chatter that Shanghai
Bobby’s pedigree was to blame for the slow down in the stretch, but I would
like to see a change of strategy next time out. Pletcher and Napravnik both
stated they wanted to dictate the pace, but Shanghai Bobby won two Grade 1’s
without going gate-to-wire.
Perhaps it was due to the #1 post and we will see a change in approach
in the Florida Derby (G1).
The Holy Bull was
not without complete disappointments. I was expecting much more from Dewey
Square, who never got involved in the race. His connections stressed the fact he took a lot of dirt in
the face (and even proved it with a post-race
picture), but this is horseracing after all, and if you choose to stay in
the middle or back of the pack it’s going to come with flying dirt. We were
also treated to a gruesome
picture of Frac Daddy’s bleeding hoof, which proved he grabbed a quarter.
Kenny McPeek believes the injury cost him the race, and it’s true we probably
didn’t see his best race. Kelly Breen blamed Bern Identity’s 5th place result
on repeated bumping, but did it cost him all 14 lengths? Despite all of the
excuses it’s difficult to hold out hope for any of the Holy Bull horses behind
the top two.
Weekend News Summary
The Holy Bull undercard
featured some possibly promising sophomores whose trainers have their sights
set on the Derby. Shug McGaughey’s Orb defeated a strong group in an allowance,
and will be pointed to the Fountain Of Youth (G2) February 23. Graham Motion
sent out Cerro in another 1 1/8 mile allowance Saturday, and the colt led at
every call of the race. Cerro will start next on the grass in the Palm Beach
(G3) at Gulfstream and then probably move to polytrack in the Spiral Stakes (G3)
at Turfway. Who am I to tell a Kentucky Derby winning trainer what to do, but I
find it strange Motion is using a grass/synthetic plan considering Cerro’s best
performances have come on dirt// Fury Kapcori was ruled out of the upcoming
Robert Lewis (G2) with an undisclosed “problem”, according to trainer Jerry
Hollendorfer. No word on how long he will be on the sidelines// Eddie Kenneally
likes Honorable Dillon and thinks the colt will improve in his second start off
a layoff. He’s scheduled to race in Saturday’s Hutcheson (G2). The trainer also
said Majestic Hussar, who won an impressive allowance contest against Palace
Malice last week, is headed to the Fountain of Youth (G2)// Goldencents,
currently tied in Derby points with leader Shanghai Bobby, had a sharp six
furlong bullet work at Santa Anita Saturday. He’s working steadily towards a
start in the San Felipe (G2) March 9, along with new stablemate Mudflats. Doug
O’Neill said Mudflats is a little unfocused. The trainer seems to have the same
issue with Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) runner-up He’s Had Enough, who worked
Friday and needed quite a bit of urging from rider Mario Guttierez// The
Courier-Journal released their annual Kentucky Derby section, and links to the
stories and video can be found below// Wynn Las Vegas updated their future odds
list right after the Holy Bull. Itsmyluckyday dropped down to 25-1 after his
win, while Shanghai Bobby moved from 18-1 to 24-1// more…
