The Blue Grass (G1) drew a
full field as expected with Uncaptured installed as the 7-2 lukewarm favorite.
A link to PPs and previews can be found below// The Arkansas Derby (G1) will
have ten in the gate. Somewhat surprisingly, recent allowance winner War
Academy is the 2-1 favorite over graded stakes winner Oxbow. I don’t like the
price on the favorite at all, however feel he’s ready for a huge performance
Saturday at Hot Springs. PPs and previews are also below// John Velazquez
initiated a little version of musical chairs Wednesday with the announcement he
will ride Verrazano in the Kentucky Derby. That decision gives the mount on
Florida Derby (G1) winner Orb to Joel Rosario thus leaving a temporary jockey
vacancy for Vyjack// We knew Velazquez would not return to action until Derby
week, but now we know the exact day won’t be until Wednesday. That means
Velazquez will have just three days of riding before the Kentucky Derby- and that’s
if everything goes according to plan// It wouldn’t be a modern day Kentucky
Derby without a little negative publicity going in. This year’s targets
(rightfully so or not) are Hall of Famer Bob Baffert and Vyack trainer Rudy
Rodriguez. Full reports in the article links below// A new CTD Top 5 and
other rankings// more…
Chalk one up for logic.
The connections of Shanghai Bobby announced they will put the 2-year-old
Champion on the shelf for awhile and gear up for a Summer campaign instead of
the Spring Classics. Shanghai Bobby’s prospects of making the Derby field were
slim as is, considering his 24 points were likely not enough to qualify. Not to
mention, it doesn’t appear anything over 1 1/16 miles suits him// Well, take
that point away from logic. Todd Pletcher tells Jennie Rees that there is a
real possibility Palace Malice will be wheeled back in two weeks to the Blue Grass
(G1). Not only is the Polytrack surface a complete unknown for Palace Malice,
but also the timing of the race being just two weeks after the Louisiana Derby
(G2) and three weeks before the Kentucky Derby (G1) is asking a lot from any
3-year-old// Keeneland announced probables for the likely full Blue Grass field:
Will Take Charge, Uncaptured, Charming Kitten, Dewey Square, Dynamic Sky,
Falling Sky, Fear the Kitten, Footbridge, Java’s War, Noble Tune, Reporting
Star, Rydilluc, Tessaron, Tiz a Minister, Undrafted, and War Academy. Three
others were listed as possible: Palace Malice, Mudflats, and Eton Blue. While I
realize Bob Baffert has to separate his prospects as best he can, I was
disappointed to see War Academy on the Blue Grass list. He did break his maiden
on synthetic, but it seems more of a choice for the B-team. The Blue Grass lost
a contender in Speak Logistics, whose connections decided to race in the Calder
Derby instead. That ensures the colt is no longer on the Derby trail// Baffert
said Flashback had the “perfect” work Monday ahead of the Santa Anita Derby (G1).
Flashback is one of many contenders racing Saturday primarily for Kentucky
Derby points. The Santa Anita Derby will be a strong cast led by the top four
finishers from the San Felipe (G2)- Hear the Ghost, Flashback, Tiz a Minister,
and Goldencents. Power Broker and Super Ninety Nine have their connections looking
for redemption at Santa Anita after well-publicized last race failures. Recent
maiden winner Storm Fighter rounds out the list of probables// The star
attractions of the Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct, Verrazano and Vyjack, don’t
have to worry about Derby points, but for the rest of the field the race
represents the last chance for a run at the Roses// I’ve updated the CTD Top 5. You’ll
notice Revolutionary still didn’t crack the list. Something about the Louisiana
Derby (G2) just doesn’t sit well with me. It’s easy to get caught up in the
latest flavors of the week, but I’m basing his exclusion on the belief the La
Derby field was weak and there was nothing convincing about his victory. Orb
did make the cut for essentially the same reasons Revolutionary didn’t// more…
"Solid 5/8 for
Flashback, in co., in final prep for SA Derby, good gallop out. Tab workmate
Del Mar Sunset when meets maidens" - Jay Privman via Twitter
"Kind of
disappointing work for War Academy (5f, 1:01), in co. with Belvin, who looked
to be going best in team drill"- Jay Privman via Twitter
"Pletcher says Palace
Malice, troubled stretch run in #LaDerby, could run back in #BlueGrass w goal
of #KyDerby pts (and G1 win)"- Jennie Rees
In
recent years the Florida Derby (G1) seems to attract a lot of press well in
advance of its running. With about two weeks and three key Kentucky Derby point
races before the Gulfstream Park signature race, Florida Derby related articles
dominated headlines Monday. Merit Man joined the probable list, Orb breezed a
strong four furlongs at Payson Park, and Brian Zipse thinks the race will
“rock”. In addition to Orb and Merit Man, the other three probables in the
likely short field include 2-year-old Champion Shanghai Bobby, Holy Bull (G3)
winner Itsmyluckyday, and Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) runner-up Frac Daddy. While
Merit Man’s trainer Bob Hess Jr. admitted the colt is probably best at sprint
distances, he divulged the strategy in the Florida Derby will be to take
advantage of the speed bias at Gulfstream and steal the race on the front end.
If that wasn’t obvious to the competition before, now they definitely know//
While the Florida Derby may be the darling of the press, the Spiral (G3) at
Turfway is the popular choice for horsemen who hold Derby dreams. As many as 16
contenders are pointing for the race, although 12 is the maximum capacity allowed.
Kentucky Derby winning trainer Graham Motion has two of the four colts that
could be shut out due to insufficient earnings. A full list of probables can be
found in the article linked below// Dice Flavor, upset winner of the El Camino
Real (G3) at Golden Gate will ship to Dubai for the UAE Derby (G2). That’s
usually the wrong way to go when trying to get to Louisville, but trainer Paddy
Gallagher’s thinking is to keep the son of Scat Daddy on the Tapeta racing
surface// Bob Baffert announced Super Ninety Nine, who failed as the favorite
in Saturday’s Rebel (G2), will race next in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) against
stablemate Flashback. It’s an interesting choice seeing as both prefer to stay
up front in the early going. Garret Gomez was aboard Flashback for the first
time Monday morning when the colt worked four furlongs at Santa Anita. Baffert
also mentioned Friday allowance winner War Academy will try the Arkansas Derby
(G1) or Blue Grass (G1) April 13, Power Broker could return to racing as soon
as early April in the Santa Anita Derby or Wood Memorial (G1), and Code West is
Louisiana Derby (G2) bound. The trainer will also send out Govenor Charlie and
Shakin It Up to Sunland Park for the Sunland Derby (G3) this Sunday// Updated
future odds from Wynn Las Vegas and William Hill linked below and as always on
the sidebar// I updated the CTD Top 5 by dropping Super Ninety Nine (who I’m
not giving up on completely) and adding War Academy into the mix. Yes, it’s a
flavor of the week type pick, but I’m not real impressed with any horse outside
the top three and I feel War Academy has a lot of upside// more…
"Overanalyze now headed
to Ark. Derby 4-13, Pletcher says. Abraham represents Pletcher barn in SUN
Derby this Sunday"- Jay Privman via Twitter
"Ellis said Treasury
Bill, 8th in Rebel, didn't care for surface. Said Talamo told him Treasury Bill
"felt like he was running in quicksand"- Jay Privman via Twitter
Will
Take Charge has never really gotten any respect. Even after upsetting the
Smarty Jones Stakes at 12-1, he was only 7-1 in the follow-up Southwest (G3).
An 18-length defeat in the slop was all the ammo most bettors needed to write him
off for the remaining Oaklawn series of races. On Saturday in the Rebel (G2) he
made himself known once again with a well-timed come-from-behind victory down
the stretch over stablemate Oxbow.
Will
Take Charge’s break and early going was clean but he did have to navigate some
traffic and make a wide move into the far turn. While some call the fractions just
slightly faster than average, I think a 23.36 quarter and 47.19 half are quick for
a 1 1/16 mile contest and did help Will Take Charge make up ground. The Beyer/BRIS
speed figures of 95/101 are respectable, and despite the inevitable improvement
of competition in upcoming races, Will Take Charge should be a threat
considering his running style and proven class.
Runner-up
Oxbow garnered just as much respect as the winner, if not more, based on his
wide trip in the first half of the race. An argument can be made that Mike
Smith moved too soon before the 2nd turn too, but he claims it was “the hand
that was dealt to us”. I don’t buy it, but nonetheless it was a gutsy and
encouraging effort from the other Lukas trainee.
Den’s
Legacy seems to always be in the mix, with his show in the Rebel representing
the fourth consecutive in-the-money finish in a Derby points race. He’s always
at least a length behind the winner, and never making a strong final move, but
his constant presence should be noted. Den’s Legacy probably needs another good
finish to earn enough points for the Kentucky Derby.
TV
analysts and others commented on a “no-show” performance by favorite Super
Ninety Nine. Even the colt’s connections couldn’t come up with a valid excuse
other than a “deep track”. Maybe I watched a different race, but I saw multiple
excuses. Starting from the outside post in a ten-horse field, Super Ninety Nine
was kept wide into the first turn by Title Contender who was really urged in
the opening strides by Luis Quinonez. Although Super Ninety Nine settled in the
backstretch and was in a good position, he ran into more trouble down the
stretch when sandwiched by Oxbow and Den’s Legacy and forced to pull back. By
that time the race had already taken it’s toll on Super Ninety Nine and he
threw in the towel. I believe with a better postposition and trip Super Ninety
Nine could be heard from again.
The
day after the Rebel, next race plans were already tentatively scheduled for the
top finishers. D. Wayne Lukas will separate his one-two duo by sending winner
Will Take Charge to Keeneland for the Blue Grass (G1) and keeping Oxbow at
Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby (G1). Third place Den’s Legacy will also return
to Oaklawn, while Bob Baffert will look for other options for dissapointing
well beaten favorite Super Ninety Nine// The Sunland Derby (G3) is shaping up
to be a popular race. With a virtual automatic entry to the Kentucky Derby for
the winner and $800,000 purse it’s no surprise// As usual, a bevy of contenders
put in official workouts over the weekend. Shanghai Bobby always gets ink
following a breeze, and remains on target for the Florida Derby (G1). His foe
Itsmyluckyday breezed at Calder Saturday, while another likely Florida Derby
entrant Orb is set for a workout Monday// Recent San Felipe (G2) winner Hear
the Ghost didn’t get much time off seeing as he breezed four panels at
Hollywood, which is just a day over a week from that race// Finally, be sure to
keep tabs on two winners from Friday. War Academy won an allowance at Santa
Anita by over three lengths, while Todd Pletcher trained Zaikov trounced his
competition in a maiden contest at Gulfstream by over fourteen lengths. It’s
getting late and Pletcher indicated Zaikov’s next race would be an allowance,
so it’s unlikely he’ll point for the Derby. War Academy on the other hand will
take a shot in an upcoming 170-point Derby prep// more…
"Mark Guidry informs
he will ride Ground Transport in the Louisiana Derby, correcting a note from
the FG press office"- Downey Profile via Twitter
"Tiz a Minister
possible for the Blue Grass Stakes. Paul Aguirre: 'If we go in the Blue Grass,
Gomez would be available to ride him back'"- J.J. Hysell
