Chasing The Derby: Cerro

Showing posts with label Cerro. Show all posts

Winning Cause takes Lexington Stakes, only '20%' chance of going to Kentucky Derby

Coolmore Lexington Stakes (G3)

Winner (pts): Winning Cause (20)

2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): General Election (8), Pick of the Litter (4), Cerro (2)

Chart: Equibase

Replay: YouTube

Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

Borel wins Revolutionary sweepstakes// Mike Smith to ride Palace Malice// Verrazano takes first steps on Churchill track// How weak is Kentucky Derby 139?

Summary:

WinStar Farm and Todd Pletcher chose three-time Kentucky Derby winner Calvin Borel for riding duty on Revolutionary. The WinStar press release says the fan poll “helped affirm” the decision, even though Rosie Napravnik was the first choice… not sure how that works?// Mike Smith gets the call on recent Blue Grass (G1) runner-up Palace Malice. Garrett Gomez rode the colt on Saturday but was already committed to ride Vyjack. Gomez and his agent could be kicking themselves for making a quick decision, especially considering the jockey could have also been in the running for Revolutionary// Verrazano took his first steps on the Churchill track Monday, and according to the always-descriptive Todd Pletcher, “he galloped nicely”. Pletcher indicated he has penciled April 21 and April 28 as official breeze dates for both Verrazano and Revolutionary. His other three likely Derby entrants- Charming Kitten, Overanalyze, and Palace Malice- will each have one official work before the Derby on April 28// Normandy Invasion is settling into his surroundings at Churchill and will have two workouts before the Derby, most likely over the two remaining weekends// D. Wayne Lukas is also planning two works for Will Take Charge and either one or two for Oxbow, who recently finished a disappointing 5th in the Arkansas Derby (G1)// Considering how desperate most owners and trainers are to have a horse in the Kentucky Derby gate, it’s amazing how many would actually qualify this year but are instead bypassing the opportunity. At least four horses that hold enough points to get in will skip America’s greatest race (Uncaptured, Departing, West Hills Giant, Merit Man). That makes this Saturday’s Coolmore Lexington (G3) and the following week’s Derby Trial (G3) essentially “win and your in” type races. Not that any potential winner of those races would definitely move onto the Derby, but Cerro and Titletown Five have connections who’ve indicated it is a possibility// Get ready for the onslaught of stories on how weak this year’s Derby field will be. The same theme creeps up every year, but this prospective cast does seem to lack a lot of star power. Steve Haskin alludes to the slow times of recent preps in his weekly Derby Dozen column, and says the race will simply come down to who’s peaking at the right moment. Morning workouts and gallops in the weeks between now and May 4th will be critical// more…

Articles:

Borel on Revolutionary, Smith to ride Palace Malice (DRF)

Verrazano gallops, Lukas arrivals get settled in (Churchill Downs)

Kentucky Derby spots, points remain up for grabs (DRF)

Kentucky Derby field 139- First look (Derby Wars)

Overanalyze second Grade 1 winner for broodmare Unacloud (DRF)

Owner-breeder Fipke excited about Derby prospects with Java’s War (DRF)

Todd Pletcher could see five of his horses run in Kentucky Derby (NY Daily News)

2013 Kentucky Derby could be slowest in history (The Island Packet)

Kentucky Derby security to be reviewed in wake of Boston Marathon explosions (Courier Journal)

Rankings:

Derby dartboard Week 3 (NY Times)

Haskin’s Derby Dozen April 16 (Bloodhorse Blog)

Entries drawn for 3 Derby points races// Verrazano to take next step// Bobby Experimental high weight// more

Summary:

What a day Saturday is going to be. Not only do we have 3 preps with Derby points on the line, but there are some interesting allowances and minor stakes as well// Revolutionary will try to take a big step both in class and on the trail in the Withers. He’ll face 7 others, but should be a short price// 10 will line up for the Sam F. Davis in Tampa with most of the storylines focusing on Dynamic Sky and recent Bill Mott acquisition My Name Is Michael// Lots of anger over the draw for the Robert Lewis (G2) at Santa Anita. The field was expected to be light, but not many predicted the number of entrants would only be four. The race does feature Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up He’s Had Enough and highly touted Bob Baffert trainee Flashback// Below is a roundup of preview articles, links to free PPs and more for all three point races// The 7-furlong Hutcheson always gets a lot of Derby related press, but rarely do we see the contestants make the Derby field// An undercard allowance at Gulfstream will carry just as much interest as the Hutcheson for many. Todd Pletcher’s exciting debut winner Verrazano heads the one mile race but will face a salty field that includes Eton Blue and Sky Commander// The Illinois Derby will now be just two weeks before the Kentucky Derby, making it essentially a prep race for the Preakness. The move is not surprising considering Churchil Downs did not include the race in its new points format// more…

Saturday Derby Points Races:

Withers (G3)

Aqueduct

1 1/16 Miles

Time/TV: 4:18 PM ET/TVG

PPs: Click Here

Previews: NYRA / Brisnet / Bloodhorse / DRF

Sam F. Davis (G3)

Tampa Bay Downs

1 1/16 Miles

Time/TV: 5:23 PM ET/TVG

Previews: Bloodhorse / DRF

Robert Lewis S. (G2)

Santa Anita Park

1 1/16 Miles

Time/TV: 5:03 PM ET/TVG

PPs: Click Here

Previews: Bloodhorse / Brisnet / DRF

Saturday Non-Derby point races:

Hutcheson (G2)

Gulfstream Park

7 Furlongs

Time/TV: 5:05 ET/HRTV

PPs: Click Here

Previews: Brisnet / Bloodhorse

Gulfstream Park Race 5: Allowance Optional Claiming

1 Mile

Time/TV: 2:37 ET/HRTV

PPs: Click Here

Articles:

Illinois Derby setting up as Preakness prep (Chicago Tribune)

Doug O’Neill hoping Gutierrez can inspire He’s Had Enough (In The Money Blog)

Itsmyluckyday (DRF Blog)

Pitino’s basketball team, trio of 3-year-olds slumping, but he still has Goldencents (DRF)

Michael Phelps’ splash into racing (Horseracing Nation)

Shanghai Bobby tops Experimental Free Handicap at 126 pounds (DRF)

Dual qualifiers abound in Experimental Free Handicap (The Downey Profile)

Kentucky Derby Report 1/31/13 (Brisnet)

WinStar Fantasy Derby returns for 2013 (Bloodhorse)

Rankings:

Expert Picks (Churchill Downs)

Ky Derby contenders: 21-100 (ESPN)

2013 Kentucky Derby contenders Top 10 (Graded Stakes Blog)

Weekend Review: Holy Bull analysis// Updated future odds// News on Orb, Cerro, Majestic Hussar, Elnaawi, Fury Kapcori, Honorable Dillon, more

Holy Bull S. (G3)

Winner (pts): Itsmyluckyday (10)

2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Shanghai Bobby (4), Clearly Now (2), Joshua’s Comprise (1)

Chart: Equibase

Replay: YouTube

Recaps: Gulfstream Park / Bloodhorse / Brisnet / Horseracing Nation

CTD Analysis: As is usually the case when a 2-year-old Champion fails to win his 3-year-old debut, the follow-up analysis focuses just as much on the beaten favorite as the surprising winner. In the case of the Holy Bull (G3), winner Itsmyluckyday deserves the lion’s share of attention. It was as close to perfection as you could ask for in a horse race- an excellent ride by jockey Elvis Trujillo, a professional and mature stalking journey from the winner, and an eye-popping final time that broke a track record. His Beyer speed figure of 104 is the highest of his class. The day clearly belonged to Itsmyluckyday and trainer Eddie Plesa Jr., and they deserve to now be in the same serious Kentucky Derby discussions as Violence, Todd Pletcher, Goldencents, Doug O’Neill, D. Wayne Lukas, Flashback, Bob Baffert, and Shanghai Bobby. The colt apparently came out of the race “110%” and will train for the Florida Derby (G1) March 30.

As the connections and others stated, Shanghai Bobby’s 2nd place finish was admirable considering it was his first race in almost 3 months, he set a solid pace, and he cleared the remainder of the field by over 11 lengths. His 100 Beyer figure was good enough to win anywhere else on the trail. There was some chatter that Shanghai Bobby’s pedigree was to blame for the slow down in the stretch, but I would like to see a change of strategy next time out. Pletcher and Napravnik both stated they wanted to dictate the pace, but Shanghai Bobby won two Grade 1’s without going gate-to-wire. Perhaps it was due to the #1 post and we will see a change in approach in the Florida Derby (G1).

The Holy Bull was not without complete disappointments. I was expecting much more from Dewey Square, who never got involved in the race. His connections stressed the fact he took a lot of dirt in the face (and even proved it with a post-race picture), but this is horseracing after all, and if you choose to stay in the middle or back of the pack it’s going to come with flying dirt. We were also treated to a gruesome picture of Frac Daddy’s bleeding hoof, which proved he grabbed a quarter. Kenny McPeek believes the injury cost him the race, and it’s true we probably didn’t see his best race. Kelly Breen blamed Bern Identity’s 5th place result on repeated bumping, but did it cost him all 14 lengths? Despite all of the excuses it’s difficult to hold out hope for any of the Holy Bull horses behind the top two.

Weekend News Summary

The Holy Bull undercard featured some possibly promising sophomores whose trainers have their sights set on the Derby. Shug McGaughey’s Orb defeated a strong group in an allowance, and will be pointed to the Fountain Of Youth (G2) February 23. Graham Motion sent out Cerro in another 1 1/8 mile allowance Saturday, and the colt led at every call of the race. Cerro will start next on the grass in the Palm Beach (G3) at Gulfstream and then probably move to polytrack in the Spiral Stakes (G3) at Turfway. Who am I to tell a Kentucky Derby winning trainer what to do, but I find it strange Motion is using a grass/synthetic plan considering Cerro’s best performances have come on dirt// Fury Kapcori was ruled out of the upcoming Robert Lewis (G2) with an undisclosed “problem”, according to trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. No word on how long he will be on the sidelines// Eddie Kenneally likes Honorable Dillon and thinks the colt will improve in his second start off a layoff. He’s scheduled to race in Saturday’s Hutcheson (G2). The trainer also said Majestic Hussar, who won an impressive allowance contest against Palace Malice last week, is headed to the Fountain of Youth (G2)// Goldencents, currently tied in Derby points with leader Shanghai Bobby, had a sharp six furlong bullet work at Santa Anita Saturday. He’s working steadily towards a start in the San Felipe (G2) March 9, along with new stablemate Mudflats. Doug O’Neill said Mudflats is a little unfocused. The trainer seems to have the same issue with Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) runner-up He’s Had Enough, who worked Friday and needed quite a bit of urging from rider Mario Guttierez// The Courier-Journal released their annual Kentucky Derby section, and links to the stories and video can be found below// Wynn Las Vegas updated their future odds list right after the Holy Bull. Itsmyluckyday dropped down to 25-1 after his win, while Shanghai Bobby moved from 18-1 to 24-1// more…

Point Standings

Updated Kentucky Derby Points Standings (CTD)

Future Odds

Wynn Las Vegas 1/26/13 (Courier Journal)

Articles:

Holy Bull stars look likely for Florida Derby (Bloodhorse)

Holy Bull: Setting the record straight (Horseracing Nation)

Pedigree Profile: Itsmyluckyday (Horseracing Nation)

No bull. What a difference competition makes (Pull The Pocket Blog)

Cerro, Orb score at Gulfstream Park (Horseracing Nation)

Olympian Phelps has Derby in his sights (Bloodhorse)

Gutierrez, O’Neill still trying to teach He’s Had Enough to pay attention (DRF)