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Showing posts with label Rousing Sermon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rousing Sermon. Show all posts

Mark Valeski declared out by Jones, Lukas gets a shot with Optimizer// Rousing Sermon has stiff breeze// Alpha back on track?

Optimizer, galloping at Churchill Downs, joined the prospective Kentucky Derby field Tuesday. Photo: CTD


Citing little other than “he didn’t wow us” in his work, trainer Larry Jones withdrew Mark Valeski from consideration for the Kentucky Derby on Tuesday.  The decision is surprising based on the colt’s bullet work on Monday and game finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2).  Mark Valeski will point for the Peter Pan (G2) and possibly the Belmont (G1) after that// Mark Valeski’s defection allows D. Wayne Lukas to saddle his 44th starter.  Optimizer is his chance for Derby win #5, but the colt will go off as one of the longest shots on the board// My Adonis now assumes spot #21 on the list, and his trainer Kelly Breen immediately put the colt on a van to Louisville from Monmouth Park in New Jersey.  He’ll need another dropout between now and Friday to make the Derby field//

As for morning activity at Churchill Downs, Rousing Sermon was the lone official workout.  He completed the 5-furlongs in 1.00:40 which was the second fastest of 18 for the day.  Mike Welsch from DRF gave the move a thumbs-up despite a little stumble// Alpha galloped on the Churchill strip for the first time this year and made a ‘favorable impression’ to Welsch.  Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is relieved the colt has apparently recovered from his cut and infection following the Wood Memorial (G1)// I’ll Have Another was let loose a little and allowed to run a quick 1/8th in a timed :12 and change// Union Rags and Went the Day Well did not look comfortable according to Welsch, but Union Rags could have disliked the off track//

Todd Pletcher’s duo of Gemologist and El Padrino arrived safely in the afternoon Tuesday.  Pletcher thinks the presence of speed in the race will not bother either colt as they have shown the ability to sit just off the pacesetters// Take Charge Indy was aboard the same flight into Louisville and will hit the track Wednesday//

A funny-turned-uncomfortable video interview with Creative Cause’s trainer Mike Harrington can be viewed below from the Courier Journal. The 71-year-old trainer seems to be enjoying his first time around Derby hysteria, but is dismissive when asked about the recent hoof incident for Creative Cause.  He bluntly calls it a “non-event”… and then on to the next question. With all of the drama we are subjected to in the buildup to the Derby it’s surprising there has been little reporting or analysis on Creative Cause losing a part of his hoof.  A similar injury occurred to Big Brown in 2008 during his Triple Crown bid and was the main storyline (along with steroids)// Speaking of drama, there is a rumor floating around that Dullahan’s owners paid for Trinniberg’s entry fees to the Derby to ensure a quick pace. Jerry Crawford, head of the Donegal ownership group, flatly denied the accusation// Alpha’s jockey will be officially announced on Wednesday ahead of the post position draw, but it appears to be Rajiv Maragh. The fact a commitment has not been made this late in the game does not say much for Godolphin’s confidence in the rider// Tons more news below…



Works
Rousing Sermon- CD- 5F- 1.00:40- B- 2/18 (Splits :12 3/5. :25, :36 3/5, :48 2/5 and a six-furlong gallop-out time of 1:14)


Workout Reports


Kentucky Derby News, Interviews, and Opinion
Interview with Larry Jones (Courier Journal)
Derby by the speed numbers (Downey Profile)
Interview: Mike Smith [video] (Behind The Scenes Blog)
Power plays (Bloodhorse Blog)
Today’s Derbyspeak (Pull The Pocket Blog)


Rankings


News and Quotes from Twitter
DRF Hersch talked to Dorochenko, says Hero of Order will not be supplemented to Derby for $200k.

Bluff called. Harrington on Sunday said reporters "could show up with a bottle of Woodford" as gift for quotes. Tuesday, two did. – Jay Privman DRF

The Lumber Guy moves to spot #25 with Jerome win// Reveron injured and out// Trinniberg a go// 3 key contender works

Updated Graded Earnings
Updated 4/21 (Churchill Downs)


Results

Lexington Stakes (G3)
Winner: All Squared Away
Chart: Equibase
Replay: YouTube
Wrap-up Articles: AP / DRF / Bloodhorse / Brisnet / TTimes


Jerome Stakes (G3)
Winner: The Lumber Guy
Chart: Equibase
Replay: YouTube
Wrap-up Articles: DRF / Bloodhorse / TTimes


Kentucky Derby News and Opinion
Done Talking workout reports: Courier Journal / Bloodhorse / Brisnet / TTimes
Went the Day Well workout reports: DRF / Bloodhorse / Brisnet / TTimes
Went the Day Well post workout video: John Velazquez / Graham Motion (Bloodhorse)
Rousing Sermon workout reports: Bloodhorse / DRF

Countdown to Derby #13 (Louisville.com)


Rankings
Derby Dozen (Lexington Herald Leader)


Works
Done Talking LRL- 4F- 49:60- B- 23/65
Reveron CRC- 1M- 1.46:00- B- 1/1 (Sloppy)
Rousing Sermon HOL- 7F- 1.27:20- H- 1/2
Went the Day Well KEE- 6F- 1.14:40- B- 2/3

Secret Circle out, El Padrino in// Take Charge Indy, I’ll Have Another breeze// Matz using Barbaro playbook for Union Rags

I haven’t finalized any of my Kentucky Derby wagers yet. Similar to the latest blog entry by Brian Zipse, I am in the process of eliminating “pretenders”.  I’m pretty certain Secret Circle would have not made that list.  Dismissed by many to have distance and class challenges, you can’t argue the colt’s toughness finishing in the money in every race entered.  The multiple graded stakes winner was one of the most consistent horses on the trail and would have gone off at attractive 20 to 1+ odds.  However, the Derby was not meant to be when it was revealed Thursday that Secret Circle has a sesamoid injury and will be on the shelf for several months.  His defection paves the way for Todd Pletcher trained El Padrino and puts Reveron on deck// Two closely watched officially timed workouts took place Thursday for Take Charge Indy and I’ll Have Another.  The latter worked a stretched out 6 furlongs at Hollywood Park.  Doug O’Neill said it was “fantastic” and “he got stronger as he went”.  I’ll Have Another will work again in one week at Hollywood before shipping to Churchill Downs// Take Charge Indy’s 5-furlong breeze at Palm Meadows was in company, unlike I’ll Have Another’s solo effort.  Trainer Patrick Byrne said Take Charge Indy was very focused and the colt will work once more in Florida before flying to Louisville May 1st// Wood Memorial (G1) winner Gemologist’s first work since the race is in flux due to weather. He’s penciled in for Sunday but could move up one day if storms are expected in south Florida// Michael Matz is duplicating the Barbaro training regimen for Union Rags.  A chart from the DRF story shows virtually the exact same spacing and distances for official works.  Union Rags is currently training at Keeneland like Barbaro did before the Derby, and will also move to Churchill for his final work one week before the race// As I mentioned several days ago, be prepared for the onslaught of “The Apollo Curse” talk on Bodemeister, who is trying to become the first horse since 1882 to win the Derby without racing as a 2-year-old. It is no surprise however that Gary West at ESPN sheds new light on a once tired subject.  He points out Bodemeister was actually in serious training since June of last year and has great quotes from trainers Bob Baffert and Steve Asmussen// Several more stories and handicapper picks for the Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland. For full previews and PPs check out Wednesday’s entry below// For a nice background article, check out DRF’s piece on Dullahan’s dam Mining My Own who also produced 2009 winner Mine That Bird.  Mining My Own could become the first mare ever to produce two Derby winners// more…  


Kentucky Derby Contenders
For past performances, pedigree info including dosage and TrueNicks grades, and best Beyer/BRIS speed ratings go here


Kentucky Derby News and Opinion
Take Charge Indy workout reports: DRF / Bloodhorse / TTimes
I’ll Have Another workout reports: DRF / Bloodhorse
Kentucky Derby Notes 4/19 (Churchill Downs edited by Bloodhorse)
Meet the 2012 Kentucky Derby pretenders (Zipse at the Track Blog)
Day at the races April 19 (NY Daily News)
Kentucky Derby 2012 preview (The Vancouver Sun Blog)


Picks
Lexington Stakes: THS (Bloodhorse)


Works
Take Charge Indy- PMM- 5F- 1.01:66- B- 1/2
I'll Have Another- HOL- 6F- 1.13:60- B- 5/18
News Pending- CD- 4F- 49:20- B- 5/36

Rousing Sermon, Prospective confirmed for Derby// Lexington and Jerome entries drawn// ‘Apollo curse' talk heats up for Bode

This time of year is rife with Derby fever, and we saw two instances of it today.  Both Prospective and Rousing Sermon were once questionable for the Kentucky Derby, but their connections’ decided Wednesday to take a chance.  Owner Larry Williams has realistic expectations and hopes Rousing Sermon can finish in the top half of 20 finishers.  The colt will probably be around 50-1 in odds and is a closer from the West, much like Giacomo in 2005.  He will need a blistering pace and good trip to get in the money. Prospective will be long odds as well based on his no factor 6th place finish in the Blue Grass (G1).  However, his prior 3 starts on dirt in 2012 resulted in a win in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and Pasco Stakes, and a troubled second place in the Sam Davis (G3).  If you’re willing to toss out his polytrack try at Keeneland, Prospective could have a fighting chance// Entries were drawn Wednesday for the Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland and Jerome (G3) at Aqueduct. Castaway would qualify for the Derby with a win in the Lexington, while a victory by Morgan’s Guerilla or Golden Ticket would put them on the also-eligible list for now.  In the Jerome, Stirred Up needs a victory to make the also-eligible list, but Bob Baffert seems focused on the Preakness regardless.  Past performances and preview articles for both Derby preps can be found below// Bill Finley argues Bodemeister will not win the Derby based on the fact no horse has won without racing as a 2-year-old since 1882.  The “Apollo Rule” as it’s called is the only remaining rule that has not been broken in recent years.  While seasoning contributes to being able to handle the rigorous 1 1/4 mile race with 19 other horses, I don’t believe it’s a prerequisite.  Finley points out Curlin’s 3rd place finish in 2007, but fails to mention he came from the inside #2 post and steadied several times throughout the race.  A combination of factors contributes to winning the Derby, not the least of which is luck and a clean trip// Liaison worked Wednesday at Hollywood Park.  No word on how well he went or Baffert’s Derby decision for the horse// The Wynn Las Vegas future book now lists odds for Derby contenders sweeping all three legs of the Triple Crown.  Union Rags is favored at 18-1 followed closely by Bodemeister at 20-1// Paul Moran from ESPN writes about all of the potential to win serious money in the Derby, yet comes off sounding like a disgruntled guy who hasn’t cashed a ticket-- ever// more…


Future Odds


Lexington Stakes (G3)
Preview articles: Bloodhorse / Brisnet / Miami Herald

Jerome Stakes (G3)
Preview articles: NYRA / Bloodhorse / DRF

Kentucky Derby News and Opinion


Contender Photos and Video


Rankings


Works
Liaison- HOL- 6F- 1.13:00- H- 3/19


News and Quotes from Twitter
Bode went back to track today ... Very very happy - Ahmed Zayat

Alpha gallops easy 1 1-8 miles under motionless exercise rider over Belmont main track. Seems to be easing back into routine- David Grening

Dullahan caution: Keeneland went Polytrack in 2006. Since then, five Blue Grass winners Poly combined 2-for-47 graded stakes.- Brad Free

Castaway may sneak in Derby gate// Creative Cause works, blinkers off for Derby// Romans not worried about dirt// New graded earnings list

Just when things seemed to settle on the Kentucky Derby graded earnings list, there is a new shooter that could shake things up.  Castaway, winner of a division of the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn and a dull 7th in the Sunland Derby (G3), could have enough earnings for the Derby starting gate with a win in Saturday’s Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland.  He was a late addition to the probable Lexington field Tuesday, yet trainer Bob Baffert said the decision had nothing to do with trying to squeeze into the Derby.  Rather, the race was chosen to simply earn some money, although racing two weeks later at Churchill was not ruled out.  Morgan’s Guerilla, Stirred Up, and News Pending are also scheduled for the Lexington Stakes, and could move into the also-eligible slots for the Derby// Creative Cause worked 5-furlongs at Hollywood Park Tuesday.  He wore cheater blinkers, which only block a small amount of vision as opposed to regular blinkers.  Trainer Mike Harrington seemed happy with the work, and said blinkers will most likely be off for Creative Cause in the Derby, just as they were for his 2nd place finish in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Creative Cause will work once more at Hollywood next Tuesday before shipping to Churchill Downs and working May 1st. There were reports that Creative Cause was very ‘washy’ from the work, but apparently that’s normal// Jerry Hollendorfer was non-committal on the plan for Rousing Sermon’s next race.  He said a decision will be made soon on whether to go to the Derby or stay for a restricted stakes race in California// In other notes, Take Charge Indy will have his first breeze since the Florida Derby (G1) on Thursday at Palm Meadows// Illinois Derby (G3) victor Done Talking will work at Laurel Park twice before shipping to Louisville// Mark Valeski arrived on the Churchill Downs grounds Tuesday afternoon in good order// Barry Irwin, president of Team Valor International, said Spiral Stakes (G3) winner Went the Day Well is always dull in morning works and there was nothing to be concerned about from his Saturday breeze at Keeneland. He also said John Velasquez will retain the mount, however Todd Pletcher could give Velasquez the option to ride El Padrino seeing as Javier Castellano is committed to Gemologist// Alpha has recovered from an infection and jogged at Belmont Park Tuesday. He could ship to Churchill as soon as Friday or as late as April 30// Santa Anita Derby winner I’ll Have Another will work the next two Thursdays at Hollywood Park before flying to Louisville// Dale Romans is confident Dullahan will handle the Churchill surface just fine, and has the proper acceleration needed to win the 1 1/4 mile contest// New rankings and an updated graded earnings list from Churchill Downs with good notations below…


Updated Graded Earnings List
Official List 4/17 (Churchill Downs)


Kentucky Derby News and Opinion
Who’s the favorite? (Bloodhorse Blog)
Kentucky Derby criteria (Trackside with Trackman Blog)
Point/Counterpoint: Bodemeister vs Dullahan (Horse Racing Nation)


Photos and Video


Rankings
Top 10: A new leader (And Down The Stretch They Come)


Works
Creative Cause- HOL- 5F- 1.01:20- H- 16/37

News and Quotes from Twitter
“On quiet Tuesday morning at HOL, I'll Have Another (SA Derby winner) looked super galloping mile and half for Doug O'Neill.” - Brad Free DRF

“I will be taking I'll Have Another out on Thurs for his work, come out and take photos of me, I mean him. I like being asst coach”- IamLavaMan

“I’ll Have Another to work Thursday at Hollywood; final work April 27 at Hollywood; then fly to Kentucky April 28.”- TTimes

“Creative Cause very washed out per work today. Rank going off, last quarter in 24:4. 101:1 for the 5/8ths. Not what I expected”- Gary Mandella HRTV

“Yes, Creative Cause got very hot Tues work at HOL. Not the first time”- Brad Free

“Fit horses don't need to work that often, long strong gallops can be more effective at this point. [Take Charge Indy] will work soon at Palm Meaodws”- Jill Byrne

“Take Charge Indy will work Thurs. at Palm Meadows crack of dawn trainer Pat Byrne confirmed just minutes ago”- Mike Welsch DRF

“Romans compares Dullahan to Ferdinand. Can see him coming up rail and making last 1/8 of a mile run @KentuckyDerby” - MDoche

“Irwin on Went The Day Well breeze Saturday: ‘He’s a lousy work horse…This is not a horse that’s ever gonna inspire anybody in the morning’”- TTimes

“Irwin says John Velazquez keeps mount on Went The Day Well for Derby”- TTimes

Derby contenders arrive at Churchill// Trinniberg unlikely, Drill ruled out// Reveron will sit out Lexington// Bodemeister gets Beyer bump

With all major prep races out of the way, the focus from mid-April to Derby focuses on workouts, defections, rumors of defections, jockey assignments, and arrivals of horses to Churchill Downs.  Sunday and Monday following the Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass brought all five of those things.  Wrote and Drill were both ruled out officially when they failed to join their stablemates on flights to Kentucky. That opens spots in the gate for Rousing Sermon and Mark Valeski.  It seems the chances of Trinniberg entering the Derby shrink with each passing day.  That’s good news for Todd Pletcher’s El Padrino who is next in line to join the field.  Just behind him in the standings is Reveron, who was scheduled to race in Saturday’s Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland solely for the purpose of accruing more earnings. His connections opted to not force the issue and take the chance more will drop out// Still no decision on whether to run Prospective in the Derby, and it’s hard to guess when Mark Casse puts the chances at 50-50// Alpha, 2nd last out to Gemologist in the Wood Memorial (G1), did not ship as planned to Churchill Downs Monday due to an infection from cuts incurred in the race.  Although trainer Kiaran McLaughlin says the son of Bernardini is still on target for the Kentucky Derby, you don’t like to hear of any hiccups this close to May 5th. Instead of two workouts at Churchill ahead of the Derby, Alpha may only have one at Belmont// As for jockey assignments, everyone is waiting to hear from Ramon Dominguez who faces the tough choice between riding Hansen or Alpha. Considering the recent news on Alpha, you would have to think he’s leaning towards the 2-year-old champion// Sunday it was confirmed that Mike Smith will stay on Bodemeister and Garret Gomez will ride Smith’s previous engagement Daddy Nose Best// Speaking of Daddy Nose Best, the colt blazed 5-furlongs on the Churchill surface Monday morning in 1.00:20.  That was the fastest time of 20 workers and pleased trainer Steve Asmussen, who has penciled in subsequent workouts for the next two Mondays before the Derby// The top 3 finishers from the Arkansas Derby arrived safely at Churchill Downs Monday afternoon// Bodemeister’s Beyer speed figure from the Arkansas Derby was increased from 105 to 108, which not only makes him the fastest 3-year-old to run in 2012, but also the second fastest North American horse of 2012, period.  Steven Crist from DRF proclaims Bodemeister is “head and shoulders above his contemporaries”// more…


Kentucky Derby News and Opinion
Behind the scenes with Dullahan [video] (Behind The Scenes Blog)


Photos


Rankings


Works
Daddy Nose Best CD- 5F- 1.00:20- B- 1/20


News and Quotes from Twitter

“Trinniberg doubtful for Derby. Hero of Order must be supplemented; can't knock out a nominee. Looks good for El Padrino to get in”- Jay Privman via Twitter

Bob Baffert says Liaison to ship to CD "sometime next week" & Baffert will travel then, too. Drill back in CA, not in #KyDerby picture”- Derby Media via Twitter

“Alpha did not ship to Ky this morning. Had infection as a result of cuts suffered in Wood. Connections still targeting Derby; ship on 4-30”- David Grening via Twitter

“Hamilton Smith reports Done Talking will work twice at Laurel (21 & 28) & van to CD on 29th. Sheldon Russell rides in #KyDerby”- Derby Media via Twitter

Shocker in Louisiana, Hero of Order still on outside looking in// Gemologist works for Wood// Blue Grass probables breeze// Thoughts on weekend preps

A wild Kentucky Derby prep weekend culminated with a 109-1 shot shocking the Louisiana Derby on Sunday.  April Fools jokes were running rampant, but perhaps the cruelest of all was on the connections of winner Hero of Order.  Trainer Gennadi Dorochenko clearly didn’t understand the rules for qualifying for the Derby when he emphatically said they were heading to Louisville next.  Although Hero of Order fetched a $600,000 check for the victory, which is more than enough earnings to qualify for the Derby, he is not nominated to the Triple Crown.  Simply put, as long as 24 nominated horses are entered in the Kentucky Derby-- which will most likely be the case-- Hero of Order is shut out regardless of graded earnings standings.

Hero of Order took advantage of a fast track and modest fractions by staying towards the front just off pacesetter Comisky’s Humor.  It appeared Mark Valeski, Rousing Sermon, or Cigar Street would catch him in the stretch, but Hero of Order was able to hold on.  The final eighth was a slow 13:47 which doesn’t say much for the Louisiana Derby field in general.  Rousing Sermon, who finished third by a nose, was the only challenger that appeared to make a decent closing move.  Nonetheless, 2nd place finisher Mark Valeski along with Rousing Sermon could have enough earnings for a shot at the Roses- they currently sit at #17 and #16 on the list respectively.

The graded earnings list is getting very tight.  The current cut-off line is $188,000 but that could very well move higher with upcoming big purse preps.  Last Friday, many would have never believed the top 20 would include the names of Daddy Long Legs, Wrote (who was already high on the list, but uncertain for the Derby), Take Charge Indy, Rousing Sermon, and Reveron.

Daddy Long Legs and Wrote obviously make the list based on their earnings from Saturday’s UAE Derby (G2) in Dubai [note: Wrote was already in a good spot with winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf].  Irishman Aidan O’Brien has won just about every major European race along with many prestigious stateside stakes, but hasn’t translated that luck to his attempts in the Kentucky Derby.  Wrote and Daddy Long Legs would be his 4th and 5th representatives in America’s greatest race.  How they handle the dirt surface will be the two million dollar question, but there have been multiple winners who possess turf prowess in their pedigrees including last year’s winner Animal Kingdom. 

Take Charge Indy will get a decent amount of wagering play on Derby Day based on his defeat of Union Rags in the Florida Derby (G1) and the fact Calvin Borel is the pilot.  Borel was able to use the rail and his horse’s early speed to wire the field Saturday.  While it was surprising that he beat the early Derby favorite Union Rags, Take Charge Indy was rounding into form.  His first race back from a layoff was a gutsy effort on a sealed track in which he relinquished the lead to El Padrino in the final furlong. With several subsequent breezes and a dry track he was able to turn the tables on El Padrino Saturday.  Take Charge Indy doesn’t necessarily need the lead in the Derby to be effective, but Borel will most likely prefer to position him towards the front.  His pedigree is suited for the 10-furlong distance, and with a few buzz worthy works leading into May 5th, Take Charge Indy could be among the favorites.

As for Union Rags in the Florida Derby (G1), opinions seem mixed.  Jockey Julien Leparoux blamed the slow break, fast track, and the fact he was bottled up by El Padrino and Javier Castellano.  Leparoux said Union Rags was handling the kickback of dirt fine, but in the replay the horse does not look comfortable.  Whether that was due to a tight hold, crowded space, or flying dirt remains a mystery.  In most of Union Rags’ victories he has been kept in the clear and Saturday’s effort may have exposed a flaw that should be noted in the likely crowded Kentucky Derby. Nonetheless, he did make a strong move down the stretch having to weave inside and out before eventually getting into his fast closing stride. 

Reveron did well to hang on for 2nd but seemed to tire down the stretch as he was having difficultly running straight.  El Padrino finished 4th and his effort starting from the top of the stretch can best be described as fair and plodding.  The plan is for all of the top 4 finishers to meet again Derby day.

Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool closed Sunday.  Union Rags was still the favorite at 9/2.  Creative Cause was a little surprising at 8-1.  With a good effort in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), he should be sub 5-1 Derby day.    ‘All Others’ at 6-1 does include some likely Derby entrants including Wrote, Daddy Long Legs, and Reveron// Gemologist put in his final move ahead of Saturday’s Wood Memorial (G1). Trainer Todd Pletcher was “really, really pleased”// More workouts were reported for likely Blue Grass (G1) and Bay Shore (G3) contestant// more…



Results

Louisiana Derby (G2)
Winner: Hero of Order
Trainer: Gennadi Dorochenko
Jockey: Eddie Martin Jr.
Replay: YouTube
Wrap-up articles: Bloodhorse / DRF / TTimes / Brisnet


Graded Earnings List
Official List 4/1/12 (Churchill Downs)


Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #3


Articles
Useful prep for Union Rags (Left at the Gate Blog)


Works
Stat PMM- 4F- 48:93- B- 15/42
Gemologist PMM- 5F- 1.00:44- B- 1/6
Adirondack King KEE- 5F- 1.02:60- B- 11/13
Dullahan GP- 5F- 1.02:10- B- 10/11