This time of year is rife with Derby fever, and we saw two instances of
it today. Both Prospective and
Rousing Sermon were once questionable for the Kentucky Derby, but their
connections’ decided Wednesday to take a chance. Owner Larry Williams has realistic expectations and hopes
Rousing Sermon can finish in the top half of 20 finishers. The colt will probably be around 50-1
in odds and is a closer from the West, much like Giacomo in 2005. He will need a blistering pace and good
trip to get in the money. Prospective will be long odds as well based on his no
factor 6th place finish in the Blue Grass (G1). However, his prior 3 starts on dirt in
2012 resulted in a win in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and Pasco Stakes, and a
troubled second place in the Sam Davis (G3). If you’re willing to toss out his polytrack try at
Keeneland, Prospective could have a fighting chance// Entries were drawn
Wednesday for the Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland and Jerome (G3) at
Aqueduct. Castaway would qualify for the Derby with a win in the Lexington,
while a victory by Morgan’s Guerilla or Golden Ticket would put them on the
also-eligible list for now. In the
Jerome, Stirred Up needs a victory to make the also-eligible list, but Bob
Baffert seems focused on the Preakness regardless. Past performances and preview articles for both Derby preps
can be found below// Bill Finley argues Bodemeister will not win the Derby
based on the fact no horse has won without racing as a 2-year-old since 1882. The “Apollo Rule” as it’s called is the
only remaining rule that has not been broken in recent years. While seasoning contributes to being
able to handle the rigorous 1 1/4 mile race with 19 other horses, I don’t
believe it’s a prerequisite.
Finley points out Curlin’s 3rd place finish in 2007, but
fails to mention he came from the inside #2 post and steadied several times
throughout the race. A combination
of factors contributes to winning the Derby, not the least of which is luck and
a clean trip// Liaison worked Wednesday at Hollywood Park. No word on how well he went or
Baffert’s Derby decision for the horse// The Wynn Las Vegas future book now
lists odds for Derby contenders sweeping all three legs of the Triple
Crown. Union Rags is favored at
18-1 followed closely by Bodemeister at 20-1// Paul Moran from ESPN writes
about all of the potential to win serious money in the Derby, yet comes off
sounding like a disgruntled guy who hasn’t cashed a ticket-- ever// more…
Future Odds
Lexington Stakes (G3)
Jerome Stakes (G3)
Contender Photos and Video
Rankings
Works
Liaison- HOL- 6F- 1.13:00- H- 3/19
News
and Quotes from Twitter
Bode went back to track today ... Very
very happy -
Ahmed Zayat
Alpha gallops easy 1 1-8 miles under
motionless exercise rider over Belmont main track. Seems to be easing back into
routine- David Grening
Dullahan caution: Keeneland went Polytrack in 2006. Since then,
five Blue Grass winners Poly combined 2-for-47 graded stakes.- Brad Free
