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Showing posts with label Risen Star. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Risen Star. Show all posts

Weekend Review: Thoughts on Fountain of Youth, Risen Star// News on Gotham, Demonic, Violence, Dewey Square


Weekend Derby Points Races


Risen Star (G2)
Winner (pts): Ive Struck A Nerve (50)
2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts):  Code West (20), Palace Malice (10), Oxbow (5)
Chart: Equibase
Beyer/BRIS: 95/99
Replay: YouTube
Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet
CTD Analysis: Many critics are anxious to knock the Risen Star seeing as a 135-1 shot crossed the wire first. There was also nothing visually impressive with the top six finishers all ending up within 4 lengths of each other. Add the fact the race was held at the Fair Grounds, and many have already drawn a line through it.
There is another side to the coin. The speed figures were not slow- 95 Beyer and 99 BRIS- and you could make the argument the overall Risen Star field was actually stronger than the Fountain of Youth when looking at prior speed and accomplishments. The trip Ive Struck A Nerve endured starting last of the pack, pinballing from the outside to the rail and back to the outside, was especially remarkable considering the crowded field and slow fractions.  Whether or not he can duplicate that effort in the Louisiana Derby (G2) remains to be seen, but it was the kind of tough and diligent performance you must keep in mind when combing through this year’s Derby past performances.
Runner-up Code West missed out on the top prize by a nose and displayed determination when finding a second wind along the rail. He did appear to have the most ideal trip by starting quickly on the inside and being among the mild pace on the frontend. Palace Malice, who rounded out the trifecta, took a lot of dirt behind horses yet didn’t back down when an opportunity to split horses presented itself. He was a little erratic in the stretch, which may have cost him the race. Oxbow was in a prime spot into the stretch, but simply ran out of gas.  He did race wide for most of the 1 1/16 miles, but you have to wonder if he really wants the added distance.
The favorite Normandy Invasion had a terrible trip most of the way, starting with a slow break and bobbled start. It was nice to see him settle in along the backstretch and get to work late, but his lack of interest in the beginning stages of almost all of his races does not bode well for the future.   


Fountain Of Youth (G2)
Winner(pts): Orb (50)
2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Violence (20), Speak Logistics (10), Majestic Hussar (5)
Chart: Equibase
Beyer/BRIS: 97/102
Replay: YouTube
Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet
Violence injured, off Derby Trail: Bloodhorse
CTD Analysis: For now it seems the legacy of the 2013 edition of the Fountain Of Youth will unfortunately be the derailment of the once undefeated colt Violence. The Todd Pletcher trainee was very game off a two month layoff finishing 2nd after sitting close to a wicked pace. The following day it was revealed Violence suffered a fractured sesamoid and is officially off the Derby trail. HRTV reported he is retired from racing, however no other outlets have corroborated that development.
What to make of the winner Orb? Some were quick to point out he took advantage of the blistering pace and won’t see that kind of setup in the future, but you can’t fault him for running a winning race. Considering it was his stakes debut against a strong cast, the Beyer speed figure came back a very respectable 97, and the opening fractions of the Kentucky Derby are often torrid, I find no reason to ignore his performance. Trainer Shug McGaughey has not decided where to go next. If he chooses the logical Florida Derby (G1) we’ll get a good read on Orb against perhaps the strongest field prior to the Kentucky Derby. 
It was more than seven lengths back to third place finisher Speak Logistics, and that’s probably as close as he or any of the also-rans will be if they face more top Derby contenders along the trail. Majestic Hussar could learn to harness some of his early energy, but that’s easier said than actually training him to do so. He most likely doesn’t want to go farther in distance either.    



Weekend Non-Derby Point Races:

Saturday

Mine That Bird Stakes- Sunland Park
Winner: Dry Summer
Chart: Equibase
BRIS: 87
Recap: Bloodhorse


Gentilly Stakes- Fair Grounds
Winner: Sunbean
Chart: Equibase
Beyer: 88
Recap: DRF


Gulfstream Park Race 7- Allowance Optional Claiming (Turf)
Winner: Black Onyx
Chart: Equibase


Sunday
Gulfstream Park Race 3- Allowance Optional Claiming
Winner: City of Weston
Chart: Equibase
Recap: Bloodhorse


Articles:


Workouts:
Saturday
Get Happy Mister- OP- 4F- 50:60- B- 27/73
Dynamic Sky- PMM- 5F- 1.00:49- B- 1/16
Honorable Dillon- PMM- 5F- 1.00:56- B- 2/16
Itsmyluckyday- CRC- 4F- 48:80- B- 3/55

Sunday
Texas Bling- OP- 4F- 47:60- B- 1/84
Departing- FG- 4F- 48:20- B- 7/120
Falling Sky- PMM- 6F- 1.14:06- B- 1/1
Java’s War- GP- 5F- 59:30- 2/33
Dewey Square- GP- 5F- 1.00:80- B- 3/4 (Turf)
Purple Egg- TP- 5F- 1.00:00- B- 1/25


Quotes and Tweets:

"Work for Verrazano postponed until tomorrow. Too much moisture in the track for [Todd Pletcher] liking."- LGS Racing via Twitter

Orb times it right in Fountain of Youth, Ive Struck A Nerve shocks Risen Star




Fountain Of Youth (G2)
Winner(pts): Orb (50)
2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Violence (20), Speak Logistics (10), Majestic Hussar (5)
Chart: Equibase
Beyer/BRIS: 97/102
Replay: YouTube
Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

Risen Star (G2)
Winner (pts): Ive Struck A Nerve (50)
2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts):  Code West (20), Palace Malice (10), Oxbow (5)
Chart: Equibase
Beyer/BRIS: 95/99
Replay: YouTube
Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

Fountain of Youth and Risen Star picks and stories// Updates on Mac the Man, Dry Summer, Flashback, more…

Summary:
Tons of new articles and handicapper picks for Saturday’s Risen Star (G2) and Fountain of Youth (G2). Links can be found below under the race headings// While Verrazano was the narrow favorite after Pool #1 closed for the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, Las Vegas currently has Flashback as the most likely to wear the Roses// Recent maiden winner Demonic had a hiccup in training, but is still hopefully headed to the San Felipe (G2)// Mac The Man, winner of a minor stakes at Turfway will bypass the next race in the Northern Kentucky circuit and train up to the Spiral (G3) March 23// The newly named Mine That Bird Stakes at Sunland will be held Saturday, with the race serving as a prep for the Sunland Derby (G3). Dry Summer was installed as the favorite, but his stakes resume isn’t what you would call stellar. He finished 4th of 5 in the Sham (G3), 17 lengths behind winner Goldencents, and before that tried the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) where he finished 11th of 14// A possible key allowance race occurred at Gulfstream Thursday where impressive maiden winner Integrity was the overwhelming favorite. The Chad Brown trained colt was part of a speed duel and finished second by a length behind Divine Ambition. The winner finished 6th in his prior race in the Sam Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay. Given that performance and the fact he took advantage of a hot pace Thursday, there’s probably not much to get excited about in terms of the Kentucky Derby// more…  


Upcoming Points Races:

Fountain of Youth (G2)
Gulfstream Park
1 1/16 Miles


Risen Star (G2)
Fair Grounds
1 1/16 Miles


Articles:
Shakin It Up on silver alert (Bloodhorse Blog)
Derby preps get serious (Bloodhorse Blog)
Kentucky Derby Daily: Feb 21 (In The Money Blog)


Rankings:
ESPN Top 10 (ESPN) List of voters here


Workouts:
Vyjack- AQU- 6F- 1.15:13- B- 1/2

Super Ninety Nine heading back to Oaklawn?// Excuses for Capo Bastone// Bullet for Oxbow// New rankings// more…

News Summary:
Both Beyer and BRIS speed ratings came back 101 for Super Ninety Nine, which are his second consecutive triple digit figures and place him towards the top of his class. Still, the sloppy Oaklawn track will keep his victory in the Southwest questionable for many. Super Ninety Nine could return to Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby (G1) April 13// D. Wayne Lukas has no excuses for Channel Isle or Will Take Charge who ended up 4th and 6th respectively in the Southwest. He said both colts could return for the Rebel March 16// Todd Pletcher says Capo Bastone’s slow final time in his return race Saturday can be attributed to having to race wide, but a 69 Beyer is extremely low and suggests the colt is a notch below. Pletcher said the Rebel is a strong possibility for his next race// Al Stall’s two Risen Star (G2) entrants may not make the gate Saturday due to poor post positions. Sunbean, an also-eligible, was also entered in the Gentilly Stakes, while the connections of Departing don’t seem keen on having his stakes debut start on the far outside// Dallas Stewart thinks Golden Soul will improve with the added distance of the Risen Star and a little more pace, while trainers Tom Amoss and Steve Asmussen don’t seem overly confident with their starters Mylute and Proud Strike// PPs and preview articles for Saturday’s Risen Star and Fountain of Youth can be found below// New rankings from Steve Haskin and Jerry Bossert// Power Broker had his second official breeze since the layoff Tuesday morning at Santa Anita, while Oxbow registered the quickest 4-furlong move of 18 horses at Oaklawn// more…


Upcoming Points Races:

Fountain of Youth (G2)
Gulfstream Park
1 1/16 Miles
Previews: DRF / Bloodhorse / Brisnet


Risen Star (G2)
Fair Grounds
1 1/16 Miles
Previews: Brisnet / DRF DRF2 / Bloodhorse


Articles:


Rankings:
Jerry Bossert’s Top 15 (NY Daily News)


Workouts:
Power Broker- SA- 4F- 50:00- H- 30/40
Oxbow- OP- 4F- 48:40- B- 1/18

Holiday Weekend Review: Southwest, El Camino, San Vicente recaps and analysis// Previews and PPs for Fountain of Youth and Risen Star// Workout summaries// more...



Weekend Derby Point Races:

2/18/13
Southwest Stakes (G3)
Winner (pts): Super Ninety Nine (10)
2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Fear the Kitten (4), Heaven’s Runway (2), Channel Isle (1)
Chart: Equibase
Beyer/BRIS: 101/101
Replay: YouTube
CTD Analysis:
Rafael Bejarano moved his arms on occasion, but no action was really necessary Monday aboard Super Ninety Nine in the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park. The Bob Baffert-trained 3-year-old son of Pulpit simply toyed with the apparent inferior competition. Setting an honest pace and challenged slightly at the halfway point, Super Ninety Nine repelled all foes for an astonishing 11-plus-length romp in the slop.
Is Super Ninety Nine that good or was the rest of the Southwest field that bad? The answer probably lies somewhere in the middle. It would be a shocker if any horse besides the winner makes noise on the first Saturday in May, but it would also be shocking if Super Ninety has it that easy ever again. You can make the argument the race would have unfolded differently if it weren’t for the downpour an hour before post. You can also make the argument track condition was irrelevant as Super Ninety Nine towered over the field on paper. The fact is we won’t know until he faces more familiar names. We may end up drawing a line through the Southwest, or possibly highlight it as a key turning point for a legitimate contender.
Do we give up on Always in a Tiz, Big Lute, and Will Take Charge? Probably. They’re most likely not top tier contenders, but may have thrown in the towel once the mud was flying and it became apparent they were never catching up to the runaway train. Are second and third place finishers Fear the Kitten and Heaven’s Runway emerging stars? Probably not. They lost by over 11 and 13 lengths respectively after all, and previous form suggests they have no business in serious Derby trail races.


2/16/13
El Camino Real Derby (G3)
Winner (pts): Dice Flavor (10)
2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Nina’s Dragon (4), Counting Days (2), Carving (1)
Chart: Equibase
Beyer/BRIS: 88/93
Replay: YouTube
Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet
CTD Analysis:
What can you say about perhaps the most irrelevant Kentucky Derby points race to date (aside from the Royal Lodge in England)?  The El Camino Real Derby has always been a quirky stop on the Derby trail given its disrespected northern California location and somewhat recent Tapeta racing surface. The fact the trifecta for the 2013 running consisted of three longshots who were not even nominated to the Triple Crown (thus ineligible for the Derby unless their owners pony up the late nomination fee) won’t help the cause either.
While post-race reports indicate the pace was quick thus allowing Dice Flavor to make a winning burst and second place finisher Nina’s Dragon to rally, it probably masks the painful truth that pacesetter and favorite Manando was simply not good enough. The opening fractions of 23:10 and 47:34 are not slow, but not brutal either, and speed was holding up fairly well on the track Saturday. The winning Beyer and BRIS speed figures of 88 and 93 respectively are on the low end for the Derby point series and the surface and field will keep the 2013 El Camino Real very questionable.



Weekend Non-Derby Point Races

2/17/13
San Vicente (G2)
Winner: Shakin It Up
Chart: Equibase
Beyer/BRIS: 86/92
Replay: Bloodhorse
Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet
CTD Analysis:
Although the San Vicente did not offer any Derby points to the top four finishers due to its short 7-furlong distance, a small group of promising sophomores entered the gate in hopes of moving on to bigger and better things. Shakin It Up’s stalking one-length victory won’t cause his future odds to plummet (although they will drop), due to the low speed figure and his supposed distance challenged sire. However, the son of Midnight Lute ran a professional race sitting off the quick pace and making a well-timed move in the stretch against a field whose members we will most likely hear from later. Trainer Bob Baffert thinks added distance won’t be an issue and mentioned the sire’s distance problems had more to do with breathing capacity than pedigree.
The horse from the San Vicente most people feel has the most upside is second place finisher Treasury Bill. The son of Lemon Drop Kid was flying late once his big stride got in gear and he figures to move up when going two turns in his next start, most likely the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn. Steve Asmussen’s Caballo Del Cielo finished third admirably seeing as he was very close to the hot pace and faded less than two lengths from the winner at the wire. I can’t even write off pacesetter Belvin, who with a little more experience could harness his speed and right the ship. It’s getting late however, so these colts will need to take the fast track to Louisville.


2/17/13
Santa Anita Race 5- Maiden Special Weight
Winner: Govenor Charlie
Chart: Equibase
Beyer: 94
Replay: Bloodhorse


2/16/13
Gulfstream Park Race 9- Allowance Optional Claiming
Winner: Capo Bastone
Chart: Equibase
Beyer/BRIS: 69/82
Recap: Bloodhorse
CTD Analysis:
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up Capo Bastone won his 3-year-old debut Saturday in the 9th at Gulfstream, but the performance has been universally panned given the extremely slow final time and low 69 Beyer figure. There is hope considering it was his first race off an almost four month layoff, and the sloppy sealed track condition may not have been to his liking. However, you’ll be hard pressed to find him on anyone’s top 20 list for now.


News Summary:
Now it gets interesting. With the Southwest in the books, all Kentucky Derby point races from here on out (aside from wild card races) could essentially be “win and you’re in” with 50 points being awarded to the winner. A place or show could also give a horse already on the board an extra bump towards Churchill Downs. Entries were drawn for Saturday’s Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream and the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds. Preview articles and links to free PPs can be found below. He’s Had Enough was entered in both, but he’s definitely headed to the Fountain of Youth according to trainer Doug O’Neill// Graham Motion’s import Crop Report was entered in a turf allowance on the Fountain of Youth undercard Saturday// A slew of key workouts occurred over the weekend and a full list is below, including a bullet move by Violence Sunday ahead of the Fountain of Youth// more…


Upcoming Points Races:

Fountain of Youth (G2)
Gulfstream Park
1 1/16 Miles
Previews: DRF / Bloodhorse / Brisnet


Risen Star (G2)
Fair Grounds
1 1/16 Miles
Previews: Brisnet / DRF / Bloodhorse


Articles:
Kentucky Derby Daily: Feb 18 (In The Money Blog)
The future of Derby futures (Pull The Pocket Blog)


Workouts:
Monday
Flashback- SA- 4F- 48:80- H- 5/21
Den's Legacy- SA- 4F- 49:20- H- 7/21
Proud Strike- FG- 4F- 50:80- B- 39/62
Crop Report- PMM- 5F- 1.07:14- B- 17/24 (Turf)
Orb- PAY- 4F- 49:00- B- 2/27

Sunday
Violence- PMM- 5F- 1.00:36- B- 1/43
Palace Malice- PMM- 5F- 1.00:36- B- 1/43
Carried Interest- PMM- 5F- 1.00:44 B- 6/43
Overanalyze- PMM- 5F- 1.00:51- B- 8/43
Delhomme- PMM- 5F- 1.00:51- B- 8/43
Majestic Hussar- PMM- 5F- 1.00:60- B- 10/43
Cerro (IRE)- PMM- 5F- 1.01:48- B- 23/43
Dynamic Sky- PMM- 5F- 1.02:02- B- 32/43
Normandy Invasion- PMM- 4F- 47:88- B- 2/74
Verrazano- PMM- 4F- 48:05- B- 6/74
Integrity- PMM- 4F- 48:82- B- 28/74
Honorable Dillon- PMM- 4F- 49:60- B- 41/74
Shanghai Bobby- PMM- 4F- 49:73- B- 42/74
Falling Sky- PMM- 4F- 49:94- B- 52/74
Dewey Square- GP- 5F- 1.00:02- B- 1/4 (Turf)
Purple Egg- TB- 5F- 1.01:60- B- 4/30
Code West- SA- 4F- 48:40- H- 6/28
Tiz the Truth- SA- 48:40- H- 6/28

Saturday
Hear the Ghost- HOL- 6F- 1.12:40 H- 2/11
Sunbean- FG- 4F- 48:40- B- 5/90
Departing- FG- 4F- 48:40- B- 5/90
Get Happy Mister- OP- 5F- 59:80- B- 1/14


Quotes and Tweets:
"San Vicente runner-up Treasury Bill likely to head to Rebel for next race, trainer Ron Ellis said. Owners also have Flashback."- Jay Privman via Twitter

"O'Neill said looks like he's coming to FOY over Risen Star with He's Had Enough who is scheduled to ship to Fla. tomorrow"- Mike Welsch via Twitter

"Nothing firm but Capo Bastone's next start could be Rebel, says @EclipseTBP prez Wellman"- Jennie Rees via Twitter

Pletcher, Baffert plan invasions of Southwest, El Camino, Risen Star, Tampa Derby// List of prep probables// Key workouts// more…


Summary:
A strong hint yesterday has turned into fact with the announcement Bob Baffert will send recent Santa Anita allowance winner Super Ninety Nine to Oaklawn for the Southwest (G3) Monday. The son of the Pulpit will most likely be favored, even though he will face Smarty Jones Stakes winner Will Take Charge and runner-up Texas Bling. Always in a Tiz and Brown Almighty are other Smarty Jones runners returning to the Southwest, while sprint stakes winner Tour Guide was officially ruled out due to shin issues// Bob Baffert not only plans to send an invader to Oaklawn, but could send one or two to Golden Gate Fields for the El Camino Real Derby (G3). Manando and Carving are being considered, with the latter the possible favorite if he joins the cast. Others considered probable for the El Camino are California Derby winner Zeewat; runner-up Wildcat Moon; locals Nina’s Dragon and North Pacific; and Southern California shippers Counting Days and Dice Flavor// My current top choice to win the Kentucky Derby, Verrazano, will make his stakes and two-turn debut in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) March 9. Todd Pletcher chose the race over others due to spacing, avoiding stablemates, and keeping the colt in Florida// Pletcher will also give Palace Malice his first stakes try in the Risen Star (G2) at the Fair Grounds Feb 23. The Fountain of Youth was also under consideration, but the connections say the fact Rosie Napravnik is available to ride at the Fair Grounds tipped the balance. I’m expecting a big effort from Palace Malice in the Risen Star seeing as his recent 2nd in an allowance at Gulfstream was his first race in over five months and a stunted six furlongs. Others probable for the Risen Star include Oxbow, Normandy Invasion, Code West, Proud Strike, and Golden Soul. It was announced Tuesday that Gary Stevens picked up the mount on Proud Strike. While many were excited over the news, I’m sure Brian Hernandez Jr. has a different take on being pushed out// Delhomme, unraced since a 3rd in the Remsen in November, will return most likely in the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn March 16// A busy worktab Tuesday with Flashback, Super Ninety Nine, Orb, Den’s Lagacy and others hitting the track. Full details below// more…


Articles:
Park City on the upswing (Courier Journal)
Kentucky Derby pedigrees (The Saratogian)


Workouts:
Orb- PAY- 4F- 49:20- B- 8/17
Flashback- SA- 4F- 47:80- H- 4/34
Den's Legacy- SA- 4F- 48:00- H- 6/34
Code West- SA- 4F- 48:00- H- 6/34
Belvin- SA- 4F- 47:40- H- 2/34
War Academy- SA- 4F- 47:80- H- 4/34
Super Ninety Nine- SA- 4F- 47:60- H- 3/34
Zeewat- GG- 4F- 49:40- H- 2/9


Quotes and Tweets:
"Flashback just breezed 1/2 in 47.4 cruising"- Bob Baffert via Twitter

"Gary Stevens has picked up the mount on Steve Asmussen's impressive MDN winner Proud Strike in the G2 Risen Star 2/23"- Steve Byk via Twitter

Code West, second to Super 99 in SA alw, heading to FG for Risen Star 2-23, Bob Baffert says. He worked 4f in 48 at SA today- Jay Privman via Twitter

Oxbow jogged about a mile then galloped the same distance after break @ #Oaklawn, preparing for Grade 2 Risen Star @ #FairGrounds on 2/23.- Mary Rampellini via Twitter

Risen Star and Southwest fields come into focus// Will Take Charge breezes at Oaklawn// Pool #1 for Kentucky Derby Future Wager open, analysis rolls in// more


Will Take Charge after breezing at Oaklawn. Photo: Oaklawn Park


Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #1:


Articles:
Pedigree Profile: Verrazano (Horseracing Nation)


Rankings:


Workouts:
Mylute- FG- 4F- 51:00- B- 41/49
Will Take Charge- OP- 5F- 1.00:80- B- 2/23


Quotes and Tweets:
Doug O'Neill reports Know More will return to training soon after time off. "There was nothing specifically wrong with him, just off form.”- J.J. Hysell via Twitter

O'Neill reports Mudflats will go in San Vicente; Goldencents on track for San Felipe. “He’s doing great."- J.J. Hysell via Twitter