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Showing posts with label Titletown Five. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Titletown Five. Show all posts

Itsmyluckyday, Goldencents go slow// Velazquez on target// Videos, betting strategies, features, more…

Summary:
With just a little over a week to go until the Kentucky Derby, when every move and twitch your horse makes is crucial, the last thing you need is a tentative exercise rider. Trainer Eddie Plesa instructed his rider to take an easy 4-furlong breeze aboard Itsmyluckyday at Calder, but he didn’t mean to practically walk. The final time of 53 flat was unsurprisingly ranked the slowest time of the day. Now, Plesa will have to decide whether to give Itsmyluckyday a blowout just before the Derby// On the West Coast, Goldencents also posted a slow breeze, however trainer Doug O’Neill was pleased with the way he settled early and then picked up steam towards the end// Conditions were improved at Churchill Thursday with the track labeled as “good”. Mike Welsch noted Normandy Invasion looked “razor sharp” and other standouts included Orb and Falling Sky. He was also critical of Frac Daddy, noted improvement from Govenor Charlie, and said it was more of the same from the Pletcher contingent. His full report with video can be found below// A nice chart from the Courier Journal tracks the weather and track conditions of all previous Kentucky Derbies// Byron King lays out how he sees the Derby pace shaping up by placing likely entrants in four distinct groups: front-runners, stalkers, mid-pack closers, and deep closers// It’s that time of year when there’s too many features to mention in detail. Look below for stories on Kevin Krigger, Ken Ramsey, Rick Pitino, betting strategies, odds prognostications, the life of a clocker, and more…


Articles:
Kentucky Derby Update 4/25 (Churchill Downs)
2013 Kentucky Derby morning line (Zipse at the Track)





Works:
Itsmyluckyday- CRC- 4F- 53:00- B- 9/9
Goldencents- SA- 6F- 1.16:20- B- 7/7


Upcoming Kentucky Derby Points Race
Derby Trial (G3)
Churchill Downs
1 Mile


Rankings:
ESPN Top 10 (ESPN)

Kentucky Derby contenders deal with sloppy Churchill track// Derby Trial PPs and previews// Tiz a Minister set for Snow Chief// more…


Summary:
Wednesday morning at Churchill Downs was predominantly wet and cool. By the time the 8:30am special training session opened the track was sealed and sloppy. Orb, Vyjack, Black Onyx, Mylute, Oxbow, Winning Cause, Normandy Invasion, Falling Sky, and Charming Kitten beat the rain by galloping early, while Verrazano, Palace Malice, Revolutionary, Overanalyze, and Govenor Charlie all endured the sloppy conditions. It was Orb’s first steps on the Churchill surface and Mike Welsch said he looked strong. Revolutionary was another standout for him. For comments on all of the gallopers you can see the DRF Clocker Report article and video linked below plus find other links to the actual gallops from Churchill Downs// Todd Pletcher said it will be at least until Sunday before he makes a decision on whether to run Winning Cause in the Derby. Pletcher is planning on breezing all six of his Derby contenders that day// 9 are set for the Derby Trial Stakes (G3) this Saturday at Churchill Downs. As expected, Titletown Five is among the starters with hopes of wheeling back one week later in the Derby. Links to PPs and previews can be found below// Tiz a Minister, currently #22 on the Derby standings, was entered in the Snow Chief Stakes at Hollywood Park. Trainer Paul Aguirre still maintains that Tiz a Minister will start in the Derby as long as he’s eligible// A reminder: there’s a separate page for the top 23 Kentucky Derby contenders that includes PPs, race replays, pedigree info, and more. Check out the “contenders” tab above or simply click here// more…


Articles:
Kentucky Derby update 4/24 (Churchill Downs)
Large hearts on the Triple Crown trail (Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds)
Wildcard for fillies (Bloodhorse Blog)




Upcoming Kentucky Derby Points Race
Derby Trial (G3)
Churchill Downs
1 Mile


Rankings:

Den’s Legacy, Super Ninety Nine out of Derby picture// Updated standings// Churchill activity from Frac, Java, Normandy// Derby Trial probables// more…

Summary:
Surprisingly, Bob Baffert did not allow the drama to build and wait until the last minute to announce his decision on Super Ninety Nine and Den’s Legacy. Tuesday, he told Churchill officials that both colts will not point to the Derby. All Baffert mysteries are not solved however, as we will have to wait a little while longer for his decision on Code West and Power Broker. That news should come later in the week when he’s on the Churchill grounds and looks over both horses, however even after that there will be lingering questions on the health of Govenor Charlie. The colt finally jogged around the Churchill track Tuesday- as opposed to just jogging (I erroneously reported yesterday he hadn’t yet made an appearance)- but Mike Welsch labeled his gallop just “average”// Welsch said Normandy Invasion was the “star of the show” before alluding to rumors the colt has lost weight since the Wood Memorial. Trainer Chad Brown didn’t seemed concerned and says, “I’m right where I want to be with him”// Frac Daddy continues to make a very good impression around the Churchill oval as does stablemate Java’s War// Vyjack was “sharp” but if you take note of trainer Rudy Rodriguez’s comments and the unconventional equipment they have to use, the colt is still a bit of a head case// Full reports and videos can be found below// As for upcoming official breeze announcements: Goldencents is scheduled for a 6-furlong breeze Thursday; Itsmyluckyday may or may not work Thursday; Java’s War and Frac Daddy will work Saturday; Palace Malice will work with blinkers and Mike Smith aboard Sunday// There are 8 or 9 probables for Saturday’s Derby Trial (G3), a race in which the winner receives 20 points towards the Kentucky Derby. Titletown Five is a definite starter, and his connections D. Wayne Lukas and Football Hall of Famer Paul Hornung have every intention of going to the Derby if they get the requisite points. Other probables include Demonic, Officer Alex, Forty Tales, Ruble, Treasury Bill, and Zee Bros// Speaking of D. Wayne Lukas, there is a nice feature on him from the Courier Journal linked below// more…


Articles:
Kentucky Derby update 4/23 (Churchill Downs)


Rankings:
Derby Top 10 (Left at the Gate)
Top 15 (NY Daily News)

Borel wins Revolutionary sweepstakes// Mike Smith to ride Palace Malice// Verrazano takes first steps on Churchill track// How weak is Kentucky Derby 139?


Summary:
WinStar Farm and Todd Pletcher chose three-time Kentucky Derby winner Calvin Borel for riding duty on Revolutionary. The WinStar press release says the fan poll “helped affirm” the decision, even though Rosie Napravnik was the first choice… not sure how that works?// Mike Smith gets the call on recent Blue Grass (G1) runner-up Palace Malice. Garrett Gomez rode the colt on Saturday but was already committed to ride Vyjack. Gomez and his agent could be kicking themselves for making a quick decision, especially considering the jockey could have also been in the running for Revolutionary// Verrazano took his first steps on the Churchill track Monday, and according to the always-descriptive Todd Pletcher, “he galloped nicely”. Pletcher indicated he has penciled April 21 and April 28 as official breeze dates for both Verrazano and Revolutionary. His other three likely Derby entrants- Charming Kitten, Overanalyze, and Palace Malice- will each have one official work before the Derby on April 28// Normandy Invasion is settling into his surroundings at Churchill and will have two workouts before the Derby, most likely over the two remaining weekends// D. Wayne Lukas is also planning two works for Will Take Charge and either one or two for Oxbow, who recently finished a disappointing 5th in the Arkansas Derby (G1)// Considering how desperate most owners and trainers are to have a horse in the Kentucky Derby gate, it’s amazing how many would actually qualify this year but are instead bypassing the opportunity. At least four horses that hold enough points to get in will skip America’s greatest race (Uncaptured, Departing, West Hills Giant, Merit Man). That makes this Saturday’s Coolmore Lexington (G3) and the following week’s Derby Trial (G3) essentially “win and your in” type races. Not that any potential winner of those races would definitely move onto the Derby, but Cerro and Titletown Five have connections who’ve indicated it is a possibility// Get ready for the onslaught of stories on how weak this year’s Derby field will be. The same theme creeps up every year, but this prospective cast does seem to lack a lot of star power. Steve Haskin alludes to the slow times of recent preps in his weekly Derby Dozen column, and says the race will simply come down to who’s peaking at the right moment. Morning workouts and gallops in the weeks between now and May 4th will be critical// more…


Articles:


Rankings:

More contenders arrive at Churchill// Trainers thinking ahead// Features on Hear the Ghost, Goldencents, Verrazano, Orb// Updated future odds// more...


The announcement by several trainers and owners of when they would ship their contenders to Churchill was made into something of a joke in Twitterland given the apparent common sense nature of the news. Those who are laughing are missing the rather important point of exactly how much time these colts will have to get acclimated and train over the Churchill track. Vyjack, for instance, will ship very soon after Saturday’s Wood, and seeing as he’s never shipped, let alone raced at Churchill, it’s a worthwhile and positive decision to hear. Verrazano will also ship shortly after the Wood for more than two weeks of preparation at Churchill. Trainer Todd Pletcher is always somewhat unpredictable from year-to-year with his pre-Derby strategy. Just last year he decided to train his two contenders in Florida and ship to Louisville the Tuesday before the Derby. Perhaps their 13th and 16th place finishes prompted him to revert back to his old strategy?// Three contenders shipped into Churchill Tuesday. Mylute, second by a neck to Revolutionary in the Louisiana Derby (G2), should have enough points to make the Derby gate. The decision by trainer Tom Amoss to remove blinkers seemed to do the trick, and with another five weeks of training Mylute could be sitting on an even bigger race on the first Saturday in May. Falling Sky was another arrival to Churchill, but he will move next week to Keeneland for the Blue Grass (G1) or to Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby (G1) seeing as he’s in need of more points. Dynamic Sky will also use the Kentucky Derby track in preparation for the Blue Grass and has the most room to make up on the point standings// Several writers and fans are jumping the gun on the potential dilemma John Velazquez could face with his Derby mount choice between Orb and Verrazano. It’s simple- if the race were held today he would be aboard Verrazano. Two main reasons: he’s the likely favorite and trainer Todd Pletcher is essentially Velazquez’s racing partner. If Verrazano lays an egg in the Wood Memorial, then Velazquez could have a real decision to make, but unless that happens, let’s assume he’s tied to the favorite// Matt Gardner at SB Nation comments on the lack of uniformity in speed figures between the Florida Derby (G1) and Louisiana Derby (G2). While BRIS, Equibase, and Performance Figures all have Revolutionary’s win at the Fair Grounds a faster race than Orb’s at Gulfstream, the most well-known speed figure, the Beyer, has the opposite. As I stated yesterday- and regardless of what speed figure you subscribe to- I believe the Florida Derby was the more impressive race given the competition and ease with which Orb won// Speaking of Orb, there’s a nice feature on him from Paul Moran at ESPN// Jockey Kevin Krigger is bullish on Goldencents’ chances in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and thinks the colt will relax in the early stages, something he was unable to do in the San Felipe (G2).  Winner of that race, Hear the Ghost, will get more attention this time around and trainer Jerry Hollendorfer believes he can adjust to any pace scenario. Hollendorfer also said the plan after the Santa Anita Derby is for Hear the Ghost to stay in California up to three to five days before the Derby// According to an average winning distance chart based on sire line and damsire line crosses, Black Onyx has the best distance potential of all main Derby contenders. TrueNicks points out that last year’s winner I’ll Have Another only had a 6.93 furlong average despite other pedigree signs that suggested 10 furlongs was right up his alley. So, take the chart with a grain of salt// The latest Wynn Las Vegas future book has Revolutionary down to 8-1 and Orb to 7-1, which makes the latter the co-favorite with Verrazano. You will most likely get better odds on two of those by waiting for Derby Day// more…

Articles:
John Velazquez faces very tough decision (The Kentucky Derby Post)
Where they’re going next (Downey Profile)


Future Odds:
Wynn Las Vegas 4/1 (View From Vegas)
William Hill 4/1 (View From Vegas)


Rankings:


Works:
Super Ninety Nine- SA- 4F- 47:20- H- 1/15
Den's Legacy- SA- 4F- 47:20- H- 1/15
Manando- SA- 4F- 48:40- H- 4/15

Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby PPs and previews// Black Onyx first contender on Churchill grounds// Workouts and new rankings// more...


Black Onyx at Churchill Downs. Photo: Churchill Downs Media

Although Itsmyluckyday won the Holy Bull (G3) in track record fashion and was installed as the 2-1 favorite in Saturday’s Florida Derby (G1), headlines were dominated by Shanghai Bobby and his second consecutive draw on the rail. For those stories and others, plus PPs see below// Revolutionary gets the spotlight for the Louisiana Derby (G2) where he was made the 3-1 top choice of 14 entrants. PPs and previews can also be found below// For some reason the arrival of the first likely Kentucky Derby starter to Churchill Downs always gets the heart racing a little faster. It’s a real indicator that everything we love to experience in and around the Derby- morning workout reports, betting strategies and debates, owner/trainer/jockey drama, post position draw, the walkover, and eventual opening of the 20-horse gates- will all be here before you know it. Spiral (G3) winner Black Onyx is this year’s first arrival and following tradition I’ve included the annual cell phone picture from Churchill Downs media. The colt arrived early Wednesday morning and will hit the track Thursday// A well written piece about some of this Derby fever I speak of is on ESPN by Gary West and linked below// New rankings, workout details, and more…


Kentucky Derby Point Races:

Florida Derby (G1)
Gulfstream Park
1 1/8 Miles
PPs: Click here
Time: 6:19PM ET
TV: NBC Sports


Louisiana Derby (G2)
Fair Grounds
1 1/8 Miles
Time: 6:44PM ET
TV: NBC Sports


Articles:
3-year-olds to watch (In The Money)


Rankings:


Works:
Siete de Oros- PARX- 1M- 1.41:00- B- 1/2
Texas Bling- OP- 7F- 1.26:20- B- 1/1
Heaven's Runway- OP- 6F- 1.15:60- B- 3/3
Titletown Five- OP- 4F- 48:80- B- 9/53

Orb ready for showdown with Bobby, Lucky// Bullet for Flashback// Louisiana Derby could be wide open// Late nominations// more…

Mike Welsch has a nice first-hand account of Orb’s final breeze ahead of Saturday’s Florida Derby (G1). He claims the colt was authoritative in the last strides of the four furlong work and barely came back blowing afterwards. The likely Florida Derby field has already swelled to nine horses from just three listed as probable two weeks ago. In addition to Orb and other headliners Shanghai Bobby and Itsmyluckyday, the field will probably include Frac Daddy, Pick of the Litter, Merit Man, Pontiff, Narvaez, and Are You Kidding Me// The Louisiana Derby (G2) figures to be a full field of 14, with the connections for Sunbean keeping their fingers crossed there are no surprise additions. Sunbean would push to the also-eligible list considering he’s only raced in Louisiana-bred restricted races. Departing is the other Al Stall Jr. possible Louisiana Derby prospect and will probably be among the favorites in the race. Revolutionary figures to be the top choice, along with stablemate Palace Malice taking a fair share of betting money as well. Dallas Stewart still believes in Golden Soul, a close 6th last time out in the Risen Star, and thinks added distance will help// Bob Baffert’s Flashback worked six panels at Santa Anita in the fastest time of 14 others, but it was still called “smooth”. Baffert said on the radio Monday that War Academy will likely head to the Arkansas Derby (G1) and Power Broker will join Flashback in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). The trainer announced he is backing off Tiz the Truth and pointing for a Summer or Fall campaign instead// The list of late Triple Crown nominations were announced Monday, with recent Spiral Stakes (G3) winner Black Onyx headlining the additions.  Among the notable exceptions were Show Some Magic, currently #25 on the leaderboard, and El Camino Real (G3) winner Dice Flavor. A full list can be found below// Speaking of Dice Flavor, he’s set to race in the UAE Derby Saturday in Dubai along with Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up He’s Had Enough and others// The Kentucky Derby trophy arrived safely at Churchill Downs today, so you can breathe a sigh or relief// more…


Articles:
Black Onyx heads 13 late nominees… [pdf] (Churchill Downs)
A legacy to John Nerud (Bloodhorse Blog)


Rankings:
Haskin’s Derby Dozen (Bloodhorse Blog)
Top 15 (NY Daily News)


Works:
Falling Sky- PMM- 5F- 1.03:03- B- 5/8
Orb- PAY- 4F- 48:30- B- 3/7
Power Broker- SA- 6F- 1.12:00- H- 2/15
Flashback- SA- 6F- 1:11.80- H- 1/15


Quotes and Tweets:
"Govenor Charlie, Midnight Lucky came out of Sunland wins in good order, Baffert said today. They fly back to CA on Tues"- Jay Privman via Twitter

"[Bob Baffert]tells ATR listeners he's stopping on Mercedes Stables' Tiz the Truth (Tiznow) anticipating a 2nd half of the year campaign. Flashback a smooth 6f this a.m. & Power Broker now probable for SA Derby as well; War Academy most likely to AR Derby"- Steve Byk via Twitter

Titletown Five will wait for La Derby// Will Take Charge may train up to Kentucky Derby// Spiral news and notes// more…

The Sunland Derby (G3) lost a headliner when it was announced Titletown Five, part owned by former Green Bay Packers quarterback and Churchill Downs regular Paul Hornung, will wait for the Louisiana Derby (G2) March 30. Reasons given were spacing of the race and the fact Derby points are double. The connections will be without the riding services of Gary Stevens who will be in Dubai. Jon Court picks up the mount, and was aboard the colt in Tuesday’s extended 6-furlong breeze at Oaklawn// Sunday’s Sunland Derby currently has nine probables with a full list found in the link below// More Spiral (G3) news with a list of probables and a feature on Balance the Books. The colt’s Spiral start will be his 3-year-old debut after being delayed due to a fever// Java’s War, best known for not getting completely dominated by Verrazano in the Tampa Derby (G2), will go next in the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland. Trainer Kenny McPeek thinks he’s best on turf, but makes no bones about having Derby fever// Buried in an article about Oxbow heading to the Arkansas Derby, which is not really breaking news, there was a mention that D. Wayne Lukas may train Rebel (G2) winner Will Take Charge up to the Derby instead of racing in another prep beforehand. While the trend in recent years has been to extend the weeks between a final prep and the Derby as much as possible, it’s a surprising tactic for the old-school Lukas// more…

Articles:
Where they’re going next (Downey Profile)
May Madness (Zipse at the Track)


Workouts:
Tesseron- PMM- 5F- 1:04.21- B- 3/8
Titletown Five- OP- 6F- 1.16:20- B- 1/1
Counting Days- SA- 5F- 1:00.80- H- 4/30


Quotes and Tweets:
"Looking likely talented Sunbean will be excluded from La Derby, which is wrong. Bottom of list (below even claimers!) cuz he's LA-bred"- Marcus Hersch via Twitter

Rydilluc leaning toward Blue Grass// Picks and news for Tampa Derby, San Felipe// Carve might not make Rebel field// more…

Park City, who was a likely scratch in Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby (G2), is now definite for the race. Jack Wolf of Starlight racing cited Edgar Prado and the likely large Rebel field were reasons for staying in Tampa// Handicapper picks are starting to roll in for the two upcoming Derby point races. Those are linked below with more previews as well// It’s not unusual to hear trainers say their horses are training well or they like their spot in a race. Both D. Wayne Lukas and Doug O’Neill are happy with their positions on the Derby trail. O’Neill loves the #3 post position in the San Felipe (G2) for Goldencents, as it will allow him to gauge Flashback’s break from the #2 spot and act accordingly. Lukas was quoted as saying the Tuesday breezes by Oxbow and Will Take Charge were “excellent”. He also said Titletown Five tricked him into thinking he was ready for his comeback race in the Gazebo Stakes last Saturday. Although he proved he was not fit in the end, Lukas thinks the race will set Titletown Five up well for the next undecided destination// With the Rebel field looking crowded and the prospect of it splitting into two divisions no longer a possibility, some connections are getting nervous they won’t make the cut. Undefeated Carve could be on the outiside looking in if more than 14 enter// Gary Contessa announced through his Twitter account he is now leaning towards the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland instead of the Spiral (G2) at Turfway for recent Palm Beach (G3) winner Rydilluc. No reason was given, but the extra three weeks to the Bluegrass surely factors into the decision. The only drawback is the relatively quick turnaround to the Derby// more…


Upcoming Derby points races:

Tampa Bay Derby (G2)
Tampa Bay Downs
1 1/16 Miles
Time: 5:15 PM ET
TV: TVG


San Felipe (G2)
Santa Anita
1 1/16 Miles
Time: 6:35 PM ET
TV: TVG


Upcoming non-Derby points stakes races:

Fred “Cappy” Capossela Stakes
Aqueduct
6 Furlongs
Time: 4:52 PM ET
TV: TVG
Previews: NYRA / DRF /


Articles:
Pointing toward to the Kentucky Derby (Staten Island Advance)


Workouts:
Carried Interest- PMM- 5F- 1.01:03- B- 4/12


Quotes and Tweets:
"For my Twitter friends and followers only I am starting to lean toward the Blue Grass rather than the Spiral [for Rydilluc] but too soon to say for sure"- Gary Contessa via Twitter

"San Vicente winner Shakin It Up, scheduled for Sunland Derby for next start, worked 6f at SA this morning in 1:12.40"- Jay Privman via DRF

"Owner Jack Wolf says Park City will run in Tampa Bay Derby, rather than #Rebel. Field size, rider are factors"- Jennie Rees via Twitter