Arkansas Derby (G1)
Winner
(pts): Overanalyze (100)
2nd, 3rd,
4th (pts): Frac Daddy (40), Carve (20), Falling Sky (10)
Beyer/BRIS:
88/96
CTD Analysis: Normandy Invasion’s strong runner-up
finish in last week’s Wood Memorial (G1) went a long way to quiet all the
Remsen (G2) bashers, but Overanalyze’s 4 1/4 length victory in the Arkansas
Derby (G1) should all but silence them. The Remsen, a 1 1/8 mile race for
two-year-olds in late November has failed to be a key race in recent Kentucky
Derbies, and it looked as if the trend would continue with the continuous
off-the-board performances of it’s top three finishers in the early part of the
year. Now the Remsen looks to be responsible for two Derby starters, which is
more than such storied juvenile races as the Champagne (G1), CashCall Futurity
(G1), and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).
You will
probably still get a good price on Overanalyze in the Kentucky Derby. The Beyer
speed figure from the Arkansas Derby didn’t crack 90 (88), which puts the colt
on the very low end of recent prep winners. If you don’t subscribe to Beyer,
perhaps the BRIS figure of 96 gives you a little more comfort, not to mention
the relative ease Overanalyze put away nine rivals after racing wide most of
the way. The Oaklawn circuit has taken its share of lumps this Derby prep
season and you have to be skeptical of what the future holds for most the
Arkansas Derby (G1) entrants, but visually you can’t ask anything more from
Overanalyze.
Runner-up
Frac Daddy earned enough points to move onto Churchill Downs, but I wouldn’t
label his performance promising seeing as he had the perfect inside stalking
trip yet was still beaten in a slow race by over four lengths. It was not the
most dissapointing display however, as that award goes to Oxbow who attempted a
new off-the-pace running style that turned out to be a disaster. The colt
clearly did not like watching horses in front of him- or the dirt in his face
for that matter- and never got into the race. Nevertheless trainer D. Wayne
Lukas will still point for the Kentucky Derby (G1) and likely plan for a more
forward position in the early going.
Blue Grass (G1)
Winner
(pts): Java’s War (100)
2nd, 3rd,
4th (pts): Palace Malice (40), Charming Kitten (20), Rydilluc (10)
Beyer/BRIS:
89/96
CTD Analysis: Almost getting left in the gate was
no bother to jockey Julien Leparoux and Java’s War in the Blue Gras Stakes (G1)
at Keeneland. Luckily, Java’s War is the closing type that likes to bide his
time in the back before making a big burst down the stretch. He did just that
Saturday after the 3/4 pole by picking off all foes in front of him one-by-one.
What did we
learn from Java’s War’s performance and the Blue Grass in general? Like recent
years, probably not much. Keeneland’s Polytrack surface is kind to closers and
can take its toll on the frontrunners by the time they get into the stretch.
That fact was painfully evident as favored Rydilluc relinquished the lead to
three horses, including the winner, in the late going. Moreover, a good or poor
performance doesn’t necessarily translate to the same happening at Churchill
Downs three weeks later. Mark Casse was rightfully disappointed with Uncaptured
10th place finish and is most likely skipping the Derby despite having the
points. Many would argue the Blue Grass is proof Uncaptured has digressed from
two to three, but there’s plenty of instances where horses run night and day
differences between Keeneland and Churchill Downs. Plus, we know Uncaptured
likes the Churchill surface based on his two graded stakes victories last Fall.
Back to the
winner, Java’s War’s best race is still probably the runner-up finish to likely
Kentucky Derby favorite Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in March. That race
was on dirt and also generated a career-best Beyer speed figure of 96. Still,
even that performance is not enough to put him in the top five of Derby
choices, however a deep closer can always surprise if the race falls apart from
a hot pace.
2nd place
Palace Malice will move onto the Derby, but how serious can we take a horse that
finished 7th (albeit a troubled trip) and 3rd in his last dirt outings against
questionable company?
Charming
Kitten, who made a nice wide late move, got the show and currently sits as the
last one in the Derby. How much the son of Kitten’s Joy will enjoy the
Churchill dirt and step up in company will be a point of contention for many.
Weekend News Summary
The
Churchill Downs backside is filling up with Kentucky Derby starters earlier
than usual. Verrazano, Overanalyze, and Normandy Invasion were the latest
arrivals Sunday// Vyjack has been hanging out in a hyperbaric chamber recently
after suffering a lung infection and mucus buildup after the Wood Memorial
(G1). Trainer Rudy Rodriguez was hoping Vyjack could fly into Louisville with
the Sunday arrivals from New York, but first has to appear before the Kentucky
Horse Racing Commission in order to get a license. The in-person requirement is
due to Rodriguez having two recent medication violations in New York. Plans are
still to have the Vyjack ready for the Derby// With a number of quick defection
announcements Saturday and Sunday, several horses that were outside the top 20
in points are now gearing up for the longest and toughest race of their life.
Charming Kitten makes the cut, which gives Todd Pletcher five starters. No word
from Bob Baffert (surprise, surprise) on whether Super Ninety Nine, currently
#18 in the standings, will make the trip. It is very likely Baffert will only
saddle one horse, Sunland Derby (G3) winner Govenor Charlie, in the Kentucky Derby//
Falling Sky is another within the top 20 whose connections may opt out of the
Run for the Roses// Although there are still two Kentucky Derby point races to
run, now is the time for workouts to play just as an important role in the news
cycle. There were four key works over the weekend from Orb, Mylute, Black Onyx,
and Will Take Charge. Reports and details below// On one hand, you have to give
credit to WinStar Farms for trying to mix things up by starting a public poll
on who should ride Revolutionary in the Kentucky Derby. On the other hand, you
have to wonder what the jockeys and trainer Todd Pletcher think of possibly
being the bad guy (or gal) who went against the people’s choice. I imagine they’ll
get over it// The Coolmore Lexington (G3) Saturday represents a “Wild Card”
race along the Kentucky Derby point schedule, and could have some serious
implications. The winner gets 20 points, which is currently the exact cutoff
number to make the Derby gate, although a tiebreaker based on non-restricted
stakes earnings would have to take effect seeing as several horses have 20
points. Code West wouldn’t have to worry about a tiebreaker if he were to hit
the board, having accrued 20 points already// more…
Articles:
Works:
Sunday
Orb- PAY-
4F- 48:00- B- 2/8
Mylute- CD-
6F- 1.12:20- B- 1/6
Saturday
Black Onyx-
CD- 5F- 1.00:60- 3/26
Friday
Will Take
Charge- OP- 1M- 1.40:80- B- 1/1
Rankings:
