Chart: Equibase
Replay: NBC Replay / Overhead View
Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF
/
Beyer Speed Figure: 104
Post-Race Comments: Winners
/ Losing
Trainers / Losing
Jockeys
The Churchill Downs strip
on the first Saturday in May of 2013 was dotted with puddles, deep, and
officially listed “Sloppy- Sealed”. Eight of the nineteen entrants had previously
raced on dirt labeled “good” or “sloppy” to varying degrees of success, but
handicappers know that one off-track can be completely different from another.
With that and recent
history in mind, it was conceivable to believe the 139th running of the Kentucky
Derby could be won by an inconceivable entrant who would simply relish the
conditions. Instead, it was the favorite Orb who delivered his trademark wide come-from-behind
burst starting on the backstretch, going into the second turn and finally down
the stretch passing fifteen foes when it was all said and done past the wire.
The victory gave Hall of
Famer Shug McGaughey his first sniff of the roses while the industry applauded
an old-school trainer known for never pushing undeserving colts along the Derby
trail. His patience, clean record, and belief in his horse finally give
thoroughbred fans a story they won’t be ashamed to read now and through the rest
of the Triple Crown season.
It’s no secret that jockey
Joel Rosario can ride. Indisputably the hottest jockey of 2013 will now be
elevated to late night television appearances and national news features
pushing his young legacy even closer to the all-time greats.
The second place finish of
Golden Soul surprised most everyone except his trainer Dallas Stewart, who
always preached the son of Perfect Soul wanted to go farther and could also
excel in the slop. He will go next to the Belmont, perhaps representing Orb’s
biggest threat to the Triple Crown.
Calvin Borel got what he
wanted with an off-track and close to the rail post for Revolutionary, but the
Louisiana Derby winner didn’t have a strong enough kick to catch the winner.
Revolutionary will also sit out the Preakness and wait for the Belmont.
As always, the Kentucky
Derby was not without its disappointments. The biggest “what-ifs” will
undoubtedly come from those trainers and jockeys who would love a do over on a
fast track. The result most likely would have been the same, but several
prominent horses like Verrazano, Itsmyluckyday, and Goldencents were clearly
spinning their wheels in the slop. Verrazano also suffered a gash on his hind
leg, but the track and pace contributed more to his undoing than any superficial
cut.
Will we handicappers ever
learn that the Kentucky Derby will most likely always have an early fast pace? Since
2000, 11 of 14 Derbies have had an opening quarter below 23 flat and 12 of 14 a
second quarter at or below 47 flat. Those times are blazing for a mile and a
quarter race and of course favor mid to back-of-the-pack horses.
Some thought this trend
would end in 2013 due to the new point system hopefully eliminating sprinters
from entering, but when you have 19 horses in a race, the game plan for several
will always be to try and steal the race up front. You can blame Mike Smith or
the blinkers for Palace Malice’s surprising aggressiveness, but he was closely
flanked by Verrazano, Goldencents, Oxbow, Vyjack, and Falling Sky at various
moments of the race, all creating upfront pressure.
Congratulations to all
those who cashed tickets Saturday and thanks for following the Derby trail on
this site. It was a bumpy and unpredictable ride as usual, but we came out with
a deserving winner who will hopefully end this awful Triple Crown drought.
