Weekend Derby Point Races:
2/18/13
Southwest Stakes (G3)
Winner (pts): Super Ninety Nine (10)
2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Fear
the Kitten (4), Heaven’s Runway (2), Channel Isle (1)
Chart: Equibase
Recaps: Bloodhorse
/ DRF
/ Brisnet
/ Courier
Journal [thoughts]
CTD Analysis:
Rafael Bejarano moved his
arms on occasion, but no action was really necessary Monday aboard Super Ninety
Nine in the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park. The Bob Baffert-trained 3-year-old
son of Pulpit simply toyed with the apparent inferior competition. Setting an
honest pace and challenged slightly at the halfway point, Super Ninety Nine
repelled all foes for an astonishing 11-plus-length romp in the slop.
Is Super Ninety Nine that
good or was the rest of the Southwest field that bad? The answer probably lies
somewhere in the middle. It would be a shocker if any horse besides the winner
makes noise on the first Saturday in May, but it would also be shocking if
Super Ninety has it that easy ever again. You can make the argument the race
would have unfolded differently if it weren’t for the downpour an hour before
post. You can also make the argument track condition was irrelevant as Super
Ninety Nine towered over the field on paper. The fact is we won’t know until he
faces more familiar names. We may end up drawing a line through the Southwest,
or possibly highlight it as a key turning point for a legitimate contender.
Do we give up on Always in
a Tiz, Big Lute, and Will Take Charge? Probably. They’re most likely not top
tier contenders, but may have thrown in the towel once the mud was flying and
it became apparent they were never catching up to the runaway train. Are second
and third place finishers Fear the Kitten and Heaven’s Runway emerging stars?
Probably not. They lost by over 11 and 13 lengths respectively after all, and
previous form suggests they have no business in serious Derby trail races.
2/16/13
El Camino Real Derby (G3)
Winner (pts): Dice Flavor (10)
2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts):
Nina’s Dragon (4), Counting Days (2), Carving (1)
Chart: Equibase
Beyer/BRIS: 88/93
Replay: YouTube
Recaps: Bloodhorse
/ DRF / Brisnet
CTD Analysis:
What can you say about
perhaps the most irrelevant Kentucky Derby points race to date (aside from the
Royal Lodge in England)? The El
Camino Real Derby has always been a quirky stop on the Derby trail given its
disrespected northern California location and somewhat recent Tapeta racing
surface. The fact the trifecta for the 2013 running consisted of three
longshots who were not even nominated to the Triple Crown (thus ineligible for
the Derby unless their owners pony up the late nomination fee) won’t help the
cause either.
While post-race reports
indicate the pace was quick thus allowing Dice Flavor to make a winning burst
and second place finisher Nina’s Dragon to rally, it probably masks the painful
truth that pacesetter and favorite Manando was simply not good enough. The
opening fractions of 23:10 and 47:34 are not slow, but not brutal either, and
speed was holding up fairly well on the track Saturday. The winning Beyer and
BRIS speed figures of 88 and 93 respectively are on the low end for the Derby
point series and the surface and field will keep the 2013 El Camino Real very
questionable.
Weekend Non-Derby Point Races
2/17/13
San Vicente (G2)
Winner: Shakin It Up
Chart: Equibase
Beyer/BRIS: 86/92
Replay: Bloodhorse
Recaps: Bloodhorse
/ DRF / Brisnet
CTD Analysis:
Although the San Vicente
did not offer any Derby points to the top four finishers due to its short
7-furlong distance, a small group of promising sophomores entered the gate in
hopes of moving on to bigger and better things. Shakin It Up’s stalking
one-length victory won’t cause his future odds to plummet (although they will
drop), due to the low speed figure and his supposed distance challenged sire.
However, the son of Midnight Lute ran a professional race sitting off the quick
pace and making a well-timed move in the stretch against a field whose members
we will most likely hear from later. Trainer Bob Baffert thinks added distance
won’t be an issue and mentioned the sire’s distance problems had more to do
with breathing capacity than pedigree.
The horse from the San
Vicente most people feel has the most upside is second place finisher Treasury
Bill. The son of Lemon Drop Kid was flying late once his big stride got in gear
and he figures to move up when going two turns in his next start, most likely
the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn. Steve Asmussen’s Caballo Del Cielo finished third
admirably seeing as he was very close to the hot pace and faded less than two
lengths from the winner at the wire. I can’t even write off pacesetter Belvin,
who with a little more experience could harness his speed and right the ship.
It’s getting late however, so these colts will need to take the fast track to
Louisville.
2/17/13
Santa Anita Race 5- Maiden Special Weight
Winner: Govenor Charlie
Chart: Equibase
Beyer: 94
Replay: Bloodhorse
2/16/13
Gulfstream Park Race 9- Allowance Optional Claiming
Winner: Capo Bastone
Chart: Equibase
Beyer/BRIS: 69/82
Recap: Bloodhorse
CTD Analysis:
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
runner-up Capo Bastone won his 3-year-old debut Saturday in the 9th at
Gulfstream, but the performance has been universally panned given the extremely
slow final time and low 69 Beyer figure. There is hope considering it was his first
race off an almost four month layoff, and the sloppy sealed track condition may
not have been to his liking. However, you’ll be hard pressed to find him on
anyone’s top 20 list for now.
News Summary:
Now it gets interesting.
With the Southwest in the books, all Kentucky Derby point races from here on
out (aside from wild card races) could essentially be “win and you’re in” with
50 points being awarded to the winner. A place or show could also give a horse
already on the board an extra bump towards Churchill Downs. Entries were drawn
for Saturday’s Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream and the Risen Star (G2) at
Fair Grounds. Preview articles and links to free PPs can be found below. He’s
Had Enough was entered in both, but he’s definitely headed to the Fountain of
Youth according to trainer Doug O’Neill// Graham Motion’s import Crop Report
was entered in a turf allowance on the Fountain of Youth undercard Saturday// A
slew of key workouts occurred over the weekend and a full list is below,
including a bullet move by Violence Sunday ahead of the Fountain of Youth// more…
Upcoming Points Races:
Fountain of Youth (G2)
Gulfstream Park
1 1/16 Miles
PPs: Click here
Previews: DRF / Bloodhorse
/ Brisnet
Risen Star (G2)
Fair Grounds
1 1/16 Miles
PPs: Click here
Previews: Brisnet
/ DRF / Bloodhorse
Articles:
Kentucky Derby Daily: Feb 18 (In The Money Blog)
Haskin’s
Derby Trail: Play the Palace (Bloodhorse Blog)
Winning
worth more Derby points (Courer Journal)
Illinois Derby outside looking in (The Miami Herald)
The future of Derby futures (Pull The Pocket Blog)
Workouts:
Monday
Flashback- SA- 4F- 48:80-
H- 5/21
Den's Legacy- SA- 4F-
49:20- H- 7/21
Proud Strike- FG- 4F-
50:80- B- 39/62
Crop Report- PMM- 5F-
1.07:14- B- 17/24 (Turf)
Orb- PAY- 4F- 49:00- B-
2/27
Sunday
Violence- PMM- 5F-
1.00:36- B- 1/43
Palace Malice- PMM- 5F-
1.00:36- B- 1/43
Carried Interest- PMM- 5F-
1.00:44 B- 6/43
Overanalyze- PMM- 5F-
1.00:51- B- 8/43
Delhomme- PMM- 5F-
1.00:51- B- 8/43
Majestic Hussar- PMM- 5F-
1.00:60- B- 10/43
Cerro (IRE)- PMM- 5F-
1.01:48- B- 23/43
Dynamic Sky- PMM- 5F-
1.02:02- B- 32/43
Normandy Invasion- PMM-
4F- 47:88- B- 2/74
Verrazano- PMM- 4F- 48:05-
B- 6/74
Integrity- PMM- 4F- 48:82-
B- 28/74
Honorable Dillon- PMM- 4F-
49:60- B- 41/74
Shanghai Bobby- PMM- 4F-
49:73- B- 42/74
Falling Sky- PMM- 4F-
49:94- B- 52/74
Dewey Square- GP- 5F-
1.00:02- B- 1/4 (Turf)
Purple Egg- TB- 5F-
1.01:60- B- 4/30
Code West- SA- 4F- 48:40-
H- 6/28
Tiz the Truth- SA- 48:40-
H- 6/28
Saturday
Hear the Ghost- HOL- 6F-
1.12:40 H- 2/11
Sunbean- FG- 4F- 48:40- B-
5/90
Departing- FG- 4F- 48:40-
B- 5/90
Get Happy Mister- OP- 5F-
59:80- B- 1/14
Quotes and Tweets:
"San Vicente
runner-up Treasury Bill likely to head to Rebel for next race, trainer Ron
Ellis said. Owners also have Flashback."- Jay Privman via Twitter
"O'Neill said looks
like he's coming to FOY over Risen Star with He's Had Enough who is scheduled
to ship to Fla. tomorrow"- Mike Welsch via Twitter
"Nothing firm but Capo
Bastone's next start could be Rebel, says @EclipseTBP prez Wellman"-
Jennie Rees via Twitter
