Verrazano, Flashback, Goldencents headline upcoming Derby points races// Proud Strike still on trail// Majestic Hussar, Bradester get time off// Updated future odds// more

Summary:

Entries were drawn for the two upcoming Kentucky Derby points races- the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita and Tampa Derby (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs. No surprises with Flashback and Goldencents squaring off in Southern California as expected and Verrazano set for his stakes and two-turn debut in Florida. All post positions, previews, and PPs can be found below// Aqueduct will host an intriguing sprint, although both headliners, Clawback and Whiskey Romeo, will probably stick to one-turn races for the foreseeable future// Eddie Kenneally is backing off training for both Bradester and Majestic Hussar. The trainer insists nothing is wrong with either, but easing up on Bradester particularly seems puzzling seeing as the colt has only raced once this year// A minority stake in recent Risen Star (G2) winner Ive Struck a Nerve was sold to Boston investment manager Paul Braverman// Proud Strike, who finished 8th in the Risen Star will get another shot to make the Derby in either the Rebel (G2) or Louisiana Derby (G2). Trainer Steve Asmussen thinks he’s better than his last effort// Edgar Prado will ride Palace Malice in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He replaces Rosie Napravnik who has decided to go to Gulfstream Park in order to ride Shanghai Bobby// Speaking of the 2-year-old Champion, trainer Todd Pletcher said Shanghai Bobby is on target for the Florida Derby// Updated Wynn Las Vegas Future odds were released with Flashback the favorite at 9-1 followed by Verrazano at 11-1. While I normally don’t like anything less than 50-1 this far out from the Derby, Itsmyluckyday at 18-1 could be a value play if he continues his good form in the Florida Derby. As Pletcher alluded to Wednesday, the impressive 1-2 runners from the Holy Bull have lost some buzz with the passage of time// more…

Upcoming Derby points races:

Tampa Bay Derby (G3)

Tampa Bay Downs

1 1/16 Miles

PPs: Click here

Time: 5:15 PM ET

TV: TVG

Previews: Brisnet / Bloodhorse

San Felipe (G2)

Santa Anita

1 1/16 Miles

PPs: Click here

Time: 6:35 PM ET

TV: TVG

Previews: Santa Anita / Brisnet / Bloodhorse

Upcoming non-Derby points stakes races:

Fred “Cappy” Capossela Stakes

Aqueduct

6 Furlongs

PPs: Click here

Time: 4:52 PM ET

TV: TVG

Previews: NYRA / DRF /

Articles:

Hear the Ghost could make noise in two turn debut at Santa Anita (DRF)

Casse has live one in Dynamic Sky for Tampa Bay Derby (DRF)

Shanghai Bobby on course for Florida Derby (Brisnet)

Kenneally gives Majestic Hussar, Bradester a rest (DRF)

Palace Malice picks up Prado for Louisiana Derby (Brisnet)

Bryant sells minority stake in Ive Struck a Nerve (DRF)

Proud Strike to get another shot on Derby trail (DRF)

Q&A with Vyjack owner (Courier Journal Blog)

Search for next superhorse resumes (ESPN)

The Triple Crown Watch: March 7 (ABR Live)

Kentucky Derby Report: March 7 (Brisnet)

Kentucky Derby Daily: March 6 (In The Money)

Who’s hot, who’s not: March 8 (DRF)

Tampa Bay Derby was perfect for Street Sense (Bloodhorse)

Futures

Wynn Las Vegas 3/4 (View From Vegas)

William Hill 3/4 (View From Vegas)

Rankings:

ESPN Top 10 (ESPN)

Kentucky Derby Top 20 (DRF)

Workouts:

Uncaptured- OTC- 5F- 1.00:00- B- 1/7 (3/5/13)

Integrity- PMM- 4F- 48:29- B- 1/13

Golden Soul- FG- 4F- 47:80- B- 4/46

He's Had Enough- SA- 3F- 36:20- H- 2/8

Quotes and Tweets:

"Noble Tune set to make first start since @BreedersCup Juvenile Turf in one mile turf allowance Sat. at Tampa Bay. Pataky Kid also entered" - J.J. Hysell via Twitter

Normandy Invasion returning to Aqueduct with new rider// Pletcher, Baffert contenders hit work tab// Rosie’s tough choice// New Top 5// more…

While the top four finishers of Saturday’s Risen Star will most likely continue on to the Louisiana Derby (G2), fifth place Normandy Invasion will go next in the Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct where trainer Chad Brown says he has raced his best. Jennie Rees reported the colt will get a new rider in the Wood, although a name has yet to be announced. Owner Rick Porter is convinced Normandy Invasion was “so much the best horse” in the Risen Star. You can excuse an owner’s blind faith in his horse, but we also know breaking well from the gate and tractability play just as much of a role in winning a race than a good closing run. The latter trait especially is difficult to train, and it was apparent Normandy Invasion was a handful for a good portion of the race// Rosie Napravnik may have to make a tough decision on where to race March 30. Palace Malice will most likely return to the Fair Grounds for the Louisiana Derby (G2) along with other stakes horses Napravnik rode this past Saturday, however that’s the same day Shanghai Bobby is scheduled to run in the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream// Todd Pletcher had to postpone scheduled workouts for his Florida string Sunday due to the track having too much moisture. Conditions were better Monday and several of his charges zipped through their breezes. Verrazano was the quickest of 38 going five furlongs in 59:21. For complete times on Shanghai Bobby, Revolutionary, Park City, Delhomme, and Overanalyze see below// Apparently trainer Shug McGaughey didn’t know the 50 points earned in Saturday’s Risen Star were likely enough to make the Kentucky Derby until Jennie Rees told him so. I know the point system is new and McGuaghey prides himself on being old school, but I would think any trainer with a prominent 3-year-old would do a little homework immediately following a victory in a key Derby prep. In any case, McGaughey is still leaning towards running in the Florida Derby next as opposed to shipping to New York for the Wood// In case you missed the list of probable runners for this Saturday’s Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct they are Grade 2 winners Overanalyze, Vyjack, and Honorable Dillon along with Escapefromreality, Siete de Oros, Ore Pass, Elnaawi, Sky Captain, West Hills Giant, Alcolite, and Champion Boy// On the West Coast trainer Bob Baffert sent out a trio of Kentucky Derby prospects for morning works at Santa Anita. Flashback led the charge as usual, with a bullet move going six furlongs in 1.11. Stablemate Den’s Legacy was just behind that while Power Broker continued his steady workout routine going four furlongs in a fast 47:80// A new CTD Top 5 with Super Ninety Nine making the cut// more…

Articles:

Bullet workouts for Verrazano, Flashback (Bloodhorse)

McGaughey excited about Orb’s Kentucky Derby chances (DRF)

Majestic Hussar eyes shorter races (DRF)

Pletcher barns hurts after Violence injury (DRF)

Under the radar: Power Broker (DRF)

Trip notes: Fountain of Youth, Risen Star (DRF)

Kentucky Derby Daily: Feb 25 (In The Money)

Pedigree Profile: Orb (Horseracing Nation)

Kentucky Derby Update: Feb 26 (Courier Journal)

Rankings:

CTD Top 5 (CTD)

Haskin’s Derby Dozen (Bloodhorse Blog)

Workouts:

Little Distorted- CRC- 4F- 49:20- B- 6/19

Malibu High- LAD- 4F- 49:00- B- 2/2

Delhomme- PMM- 5F- 1.00:09- B- 4/38

Verrazano- PMM- 5F- 59:21- B- 1/38

Shanghai Bobby- PMM- 4F- 49:61- B- 32/60

Overanalyze- PMM- 4F- 48:75- B- 17/60

Revolutionary- PMM- 4F- 48:43- B- 13/60

Park City- PMM- 4F- 48:43- B- 13/60

Flashback- SA- 6F- 1.11:00- H- 1/14

Den's Legacy- SA- 6F- 1.11:40- H- 2/14

Manando- SA- 5F- 1.00:00- H- 10/62

Clawback- AQU- 3F- 35:55- B- 1/1

Power Broker- SA- 4F- 47:80- H- 4/27

Quotes and Tweets:

"Will Take Charge galloped a mile and a half under wraps second set after the break Monday at #Oaklawn; pointing for Rebel, said Lukas"- Mary Rampellini via Twitter

"Frak Daddy back to track today. Throat looks much better and we have some forward motion. We have plenty of time to get him ready for Derby"- Kenny McPeek via Twitter

Weekend Review: Thoughts on Fountain of Youth, Risen Star// News on Gotham, Demonic, Violence, Dewey Square

Weekend Derby Points Races

Risen Star (G2)

Winner (pts): Ive Struck A Nerve (50)

2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts):  Code West (20), Palace Malice (10), Oxbow (5)

Chart: Equibase

Beyer/BRIS: 95/99

Replay: YouTube

Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

CTD Analysis: Many critics are anxious to knock the Risen Star seeing as a 135-1 shot crossed the wire first. There was also nothing visually impressive with the top six finishers all ending up within 4 lengths of each other. Add the fact the race was held at the Fair Grounds, and many have already drawn a line through it.

There is another side to the coin. The speed figures were not slow- 95 Beyer and 99 BRIS- and you could make the argument the overall Risen Star field was actually stronger than the Fountain of Youth when looking at prior speed and accomplishments. The trip Ive Struck A Nerve endured starting last of the pack, pinballing from the outside to the rail and back to the outside, was especially remarkable considering the crowded field and slow fractions.  Whether or not he can duplicate that effort in the Louisiana Derby (G2) remains to be seen, but it was the kind of tough and diligent performance you must keep in mind when combing through this year’s Derby past performances.

Runner-up Code West missed out on the top prize by a nose and displayed determination when finding a second wind along the rail. He did appear to have the most ideal trip by starting quickly on the inside and being among the mild pace on the frontend. Palace Malice, who rounded out the trifecta, took a lot of dirt behind horses yet didn’t back down when an opportunity to split horses presented itself. He was a little erratic in the stretch, which may have cost him the race. Oxbow was in a prime spot into the stretch, but simply ran out of gas.  He did race wide for most of the 1 1/16 miles, but you have to wonder if he really wants the added distance.

The favorite Normandy Invasion had a terrible trip most of the way, starting with a slow break and bobbled start. It was nice to see him settle in along the backstretch and get to work late, but his lack of interest in the beginning stages of almost all of his races does not bode well for the future.   

Fountain Of Youth (G2)

Winner(pts): Orb (50)

2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Violence (20), Speak Logistics (10), Majestic Hussar (5)

Chart: Equibase

Beyer/BRIS: 97/102

Replay: YouTube

Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

Violence injured, off Derby Trail: Bloodhorse

CTD Analysis: For now it seems the legacy of the 2013 edition of the Fountain Of Youth will unfortunately be the derailment of the once undefeated colt Violence. The Todd Pletcher trainee was very game off a two month layoff finishing 2nd after sitting close to a wicked pace. The following day it was revealed Violence suffered a fractured sesamoid and is officially off the Derby trail. HRTV reported he is retired from racing, however no other outlets have corroborated that development.

What to make of the winner Orb? Some were quick to point out he took advantage of the blistering pace and won’t see that kind of setup in the future, but you can’t fault him for running a winning race. Considering it was his stakes debut against a strong cast, the Beyer speed figure came back a very respectable 97, and the opening fractions of the Kentucky Derby are often torrid, I find no reason to ignore his performance. Trainer Shug McGaughey has not decided where to go next. If he chooses the logical Florida Derby (G1) we’ll get a good read on Orb against perhaps the strongest field prior to the Kentucky Derby. 

It was more than seven lengths back to third place finisher Speak Logistics, and that’s probably as close as he or any of the also-rans will be if they face more top Derby contenders along the trail. Majestic Hussar could learn to harness some of his early energy, but that’s easier said than actually training him to do so. He most likely doesn’t want to go farther in distance either.    

Updated Points Standings

Weekend Non-Derby Point Races:

Saturday

Mine That Bird Stakes- Sunland Park

Winner: Dry Summer

Chart: Equibase

BRIS: 87

Recap: Bloodhorse

Gentilly Stakes- Fair Grounds

Winner: Sunbean

Chart: Equibase

Beyer: 88

Recap: DRF

Gulfstream Park Race 7- Allowance Optional Claiming (Turf)

Winner: Black Onyx

Chart: Equibase

Sunday

Gulfstream Park Race 3- Allowance Optional Claiming

Winner: City of Weston

Chart: Equibase

Recap: Bloodhorse

Articles:

Orb’s next start undecided, McGaughey says (Bloodhorse)

Louisiana Derby next for Ive Struck A Nerve (Bloodhorse)

Ive Struck A Nerve puts lessons to good use in Risen Star (DRF)

Overanalyze heads Gotham probables (Brisnet)

Demonic will miss San Felipe with bruised foot (DRF)

Dewey Square, Babazonki drill for Palm Beach (Bloodhorse)

Itsmyluckyday gets back to work (Bloodhorse)

Capo Bastone gives Pletcher depth (Union Tribune)

Workouts:

Saturday

Get Happy Mister- OP- 4F- 50:60- B- 27/73

Dynamic Sky- PMM- 5F- 1.00:49- B- 1/16

Honorable Dillon- PMM- 5F- 1.00:56- B- 2/16

Itsmyluckyday- CRC- 4F- 48:80- B- 3/55

Sunday

Texas Bling- OP- 4F- 47:60- B- 1/84

Departing- FG- 4F- 48:20- B- 7/120

Falling Sky- PMM- 6F- 1.14:06- B- 1/1

Java’s War- GP- 5F- 59:30- 2/33

Dewey Square- GP- 5F- 1.00:80- B- 3/4 (Turf)

Purple Egg- TP- 5F- 1.00:00- B- 1/25

Quotes and Tweets:

"Work for Verrazano postponed until tomorrow. Too much moisture in the track for [Todd Pletcher] liking."- LGS Racing via Twitter

Orb times it right in Fountain of Youth, Ive Struck A Nerve shocks Risen Star

Fountain Of Youth (G2)

Winner(pts): Orb (50)

2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Violence (20), Speak Logistics (10), Majestic Hussar (5)

Chart: Equibase

Beyer/BRIS: 97/102

Replay: YouTube

Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

Risen Star (G2)

Winner (pts): Ive Struck A Nerve (50)

2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts):  Code West (20), Palace Malice (10), Oxbow (5)

Chart: Equibase

Beyer/BRIS: 95/99

Replay: YouTube

Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

Updated Points Standings

Equipment change for Mudflats// Handicapper picks for El Camino, San Vicente// Majestic Hussar stretching out

Upcoming:

2/16/13

El Camino Real Derby (G3)

Golden Gate Fields

1 1/8 Miles

PPs: Click here

Previews: Brisnet / DRF / Horseracing Nation / Bloodhorse THS

Picks: Downey Profile

2/17/13

San Vicente (G2)

Santa Anita

7 Furlongs

PPs: Click here

Previews: Brisnet / Bloodhorse

Picks: DRF

Articles:

Equipment changes for may aid Mudflats in San Vicente (Santa Anita)

Lukas pair bring contrasting styles to Southwest Stakes (DRF)

Majestic Hussar to get distance test in Fountain of Youth (Bloodhorse)

Salutos Amigos to try route in San Felipe (DRF)

Risen Star attracting horses from coast to coast (DRF)

The all-weather track preps (Horseracing Nation)

Capo Bastone: overrated or underrated? (Bloodhorse Blog)

Capo Bastone may be vulnerable in return (DRF)

Kentucky Derby Daily Feb 15 (In The Money Blog)

Is Bob Baffert bound for a big weekend? (Louisville.com)

Countdown to the Crown: week 7- Feb 15 (DRF)

Kentucky Derby Future Wager needs fixing (DRF)

Horseshoe, Turfway announce sponsorship (Bloodhorse)

Revolutionary win for the Blushing Groom line (Bloodhorse)

Workouts:

Titletown Five- OP- 5F- 1.01:40- B- 1/11

Mylute- FG- 5F- 1.00:60- B- 5/29

Golden Soul- FG- 6F- 1.12:60- B- 1/3

Quotes and Tweets:

John Sadler on running Demonic in San Felipe: to stretch him out and "there are no (Kentucky Derby qualifying) points in the San Vicente."- J.J. Hysell via Twitter

Weekend Review: Oxbow wins LeComte// Palace Malice 2nd to Majestic Hussar at Gulfstream// 9 set for Smarty Jones// Brown looking at Bluegrass for turf runners// Holy Bull workouts

LeComte Stakes (G3)

Winner (pts): Oxbow (10)

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

Jockey: Jon Court

2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Golden Soul (4), Fear The Kitten (2), Ive Struck a Nerve (1)

Chart: Equibase

Replay: Bloodhorse

Wrap-up Articles: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

CTD Analysis: Two camps seem to be forming after Oxbow’s absolute domination in the LeComte Saturday.  A few were impressed, but many felt it only proved the field was weak.  I will stay cautiously optimistic and not pitch my tent in either camp.  There have surely been weaker fields in an early January graded stakes for 3-year-olds.  The cast included winners of graded stakes, listed stakes, and open allowances- not to mention promising maiden breakers.  True, there were questions for many of those winners, such as how they would take to dirt or if their pedigree would allow them to excel going two-turns.  And the answer for now is they all failed.  However, you can’ rule out the possibility Oxbow has simply progressed and matured. And it’s not as if his résumé was weak going into the race.  Before his lackluster 4th last time out on synthetic in the CashCall (G1), he convincingly won a crowded maiden contest at Churchill by over 4 lengths.  Lukas has always been high on him and pointed out the win was even more impressive considering he was one of the only late shippers.  Oxbow’s sire Awesome Again won multiple grade 1’s going 10 furlongs, and there are also distance signs on his dam side. The main concern for Oxbow is his frontend running style. His two wins have come in wire-to-wire fashion, something that does not happen often in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby. Oxbow will be pointed to the Risen Star (G2) at the Fair Grounds February 23 or possibly the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn February 18.

It’s difficult to get excited about any other LeComte participant, but I’m not giving up on 2nd place finisher Golden Soul who was bumped and pinched back at the start.  He then had to race wide most of the way and wound up making a good run down the stretch.  Jockey Brian Hernandez thinks he put in a solid effort considering the obstacles and step up in class and believes he’ll get better with added distance and seasoning.

Upcoming Points Race:

Smarty Jones Stakes- 1/23/13

Oaklawn Park

1 Mile

Derby Points 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th: 10, 4, 2, 1

Time/TV: 5:38PM ET/TVG

PPs: Click Here

Preview Articles: DRF / Brisnet / KentuckyDerby.com Video Preview

Picks: Triple Crown Champ /

Weekend News Summary:

Trainer Chad Brown is pointing two of his best 3-year-old turf stars, Noble Tune and Balance the Books, to the Bluegrass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland April 13. They will start in a turf race before that, which means if they qualify for the Derby we will have no measure of how well they will perform on dirt.  Defenders of turf and synthetic runners like to point out Kentucky Derby winners Animal Kingdom, Big Brown, Barbaro, and others had success off dirt before coming to Louisville, but they don’t mention the long list of those who failed to make the switch. Just last year, horses that competed on synthetic or won their best races on it, finished 3rd (not bad), 4th (not bad), 8th, 9th, and 20th (real bad).  A mixed bag for sure, but results that won’t cause me to run to the windows and bet on either Noble Tune or Balance the Books on the first Saturday in May// Majestic Hussar crashed the return party for Saratoga maiden winner Palace Malice in an allowance at Gulfstream Saturday. Majestic Hussar also broke his maiden at Saratoga in August, but followed it up with a dismal 7th place in the Hopeful Stakes (G1) before a comeback 2nd in another Gulfstream allowance in December.  While trainer Eddie Kenneally is confident and asserted he will put the colt on the Derby trail, the fact that Majestic Hussar’s two wins have both come on sloppy sealed tracks gives pause.  The Fountain of Youth (G2) February 23rd is the likely next race target// There has been some mystery on the status of Purple Egg, an undefeated colt by Lion Heart, who was scratched from both the Gulfstream Park Derby and Pasco Stakes.  Trainer Jane Cibelli finally admitted Purple Egg was still suffering the effects of a fever and they are taking it slow// Clearly Now, 3rd in the Display Stakes at Woodbine in December, is pointing for the Holy Bull (G3) Saturday.  He’ll face newly minted 2-year-old Champion Shanghai Bobby and a likely short field.  Shanghai Bobby had his final work before the Holy Bull Sunday, going 5 furlongs in 1:00.88.  Bern Identity and Dewey Square both posted 5-furlong moves at Palm Meadows and Gulfstream respectively// Reports from Aqueduct suggest Todd Pletcher’s Revolutionary is training like a monster.  He’s on schedule for the Withers (G3) on February 2// more…

Articles:

Shanghai Bobby posts final Holy Bull breeze [plus works by Dewey Square and Bern Identity] (Bloodhorse)

Clearly Now joins strong field for Holy Bull Saturday [plus news on Shanghai Bobby and Majestic Hussar] (Gulfstream Park)

Revolutionary preps for Withers with eye-catching workout (DRF)

Brown has plan to give turf runners chance at Kentucky Derby (DRF)

Majestic Hussar returns in sharp form, may target Fountain of Youth (DRF)

Clawback sticks to sprinting in Jimmy Winkfield (DRF)

Top 20 intriguing under-the-radar 3-year-olds (In the Money Blog)

Workouts:

Saturday:

Vyjack- AQU- 4F- 51:01- B- 17/23

Itsmyluckyday- CRC- 4F- 48:40- B- 2/57

Honorable Dillon- PMM- 5F- 1.01:70- B- 15/22

Fury Kapcori- HOL- 6F- 1.12:40- H- 1/3

Tour Guide- FG- 4F- 49:20- B- 29/88

Sunday:

Dewey Square- GP- 5F- 59:10- B- 1/20

War Academy- SA- 4F- 48:20- H- 6/27

Violence- PMM- 4F- 50:90- B- 41/45

Capo Bastone- PMM- 4F- 49:55- B- 24/45

Overanalyze- PMM- 4F- 51:62- B- 44/45

Normandy Invasion- PMM- 4F- 49:93- B- 34/45

Bern Identity- PMM- 5F- 59:33- B- 1/13

Shanghai Bobby- PMM- 5F- 1.00:88- B- 5/13

Verrazano- PMM- 5F- 1.00:88- B- 5/13

Revolutionary- BEL- 4F- 48:05- B- 13/78

Quotes and Tweets:

“Oxbow scheduled to ship back to #Oaklawn today, trainer Wayne Lukas said. Several next-race options, including Southwest and Rebel at Oaklawn”- Robert Yates via Twitter