The chase ends: Wildcard Animal Kingdom takes the roses, Preakness next

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Summary:

We shouldn’t have been surprised.  If you’ve been following the Derby Trail at all this year, the fact an overlooked long shot with a thin resume emphatically wins America’s greatest horse race was only fitting.  Animal Kingdom was a wildcard going in.  He had never raced on dirt, yet backside onlookers had sung praises of how he was training and coming into the race.  His dirt pedigree was questionable.  Sired by turf champion Leroidesanimaux, a majority of his offspring race and win on turf or synthetic surfaces.  Trainer Graham Motion insisted afterwards if horses are of a certain caliber, "they can handle the switchover”.  While that was true for the winner of the 2011 Kentucky Derby and somewhat supported further with Master of Hounds close fifth place finish, it is not the norm.  It happens in horse racing. It does not happen often, and that is why handicappers will continue to take pedigree into account.

The results of the Kentucky Derby seem to always provide multi-layered storylines of firsts, opportunity, redemption, and missed chances, and this year was no different.  It was the first Derby win for both jockey John Velazquez and trainer Graham Motion. It looked as though Velazquez would be watching the Derby on television from the Jock’s room when two-year-old champion Uncle Mo was scratched Friday.  Opportunity rang later when Animal Kingdom’s owner, Barry Irwin, decided to use his services instead of recently injured Robby Albarado.  Albarado insisted he was ready, but Irwin did not want to take the chance, and the decision ultimately took the jockey off the winner.  After 12 failed attempts and 3 late defections Velazquez finally got to smell the roses. Trainer Graham Motion also persevered through losing his leading challenger Toby’s Corner to an injury sustained last Sunday.

Second and third place finishers Nehro and Mucho Macho Man should be commended for running well, but aside from the winner, fourth place Shackleford ran most impressive.  Considering the track was not speed favoring and the fact frontrunners usually don’t fare well in the Derby, his effort was truly gutsy. Some will say the fractions were slow, which they were in comparison to recent Derbies, but the pace was still fair for a mile and a quarter race. Pants On Fire*, Soldat, Decisive Moment, and Comma To The Top* also gave close chase in the beginning but faded to 9^th, 11^th, 14^th, and 19^th respectively.

As for CTD’s picks, they were nowhere close.  Unfortunately top pick Archarcharch sustained a condylar fracture and was retired, but it appears he will recover.

What will the future bring? It looks as though Animal Kingdom is headed to Baltimore for the Preakness.  Who knows, we could have a superstar on our hands considering the way he took to dirt in his first try, his running style, and long distance pedigree. Here’s hoping for the first Triple Crown winner since 1978…

Stats from the Kentucky Derby:

·       Beyer Speed Figures: Animal Kingdom 103; Nehro 99; Mucho Macho Man 99; Shackleford 97; Master of Hounds 95; Santiva 95

·       Animal Kingdom (courtesy of Churchill Downs)

o   First horse since Needles in 1956 to win the Kentucky Derby off a six-week layoff

o   Fifth horse since 1900 to win Derby off 4 or fewer starts

o   First winner to break its maiden at Keeneland since Forward Pass in 1968.

o   Fifth consecutive winner with only two starts as a 3-year-old prior

Articles:

·       Graham Motion: “Yesterday was surreal” (Bloodhorse)

·       Fate makes a comeback for Animal Kingdome trainer (Courier Journal)

·       Victory in Kentucky Derby meant to be for jockey (Courier Journal)

·       Albarado unhappy to be taken off winner (Courier Journal)

·       Kentucky bred winner has an international lineage (Courier Journal)

·       Transcript: Post-Derby winner’s press conference (Churchill Downs)

·       Kentucky Derby losing jockey and trainer quotes (Churchill Downs)

·       Rosie Napravnik yearns for a return trip (Courier Journal)

·       Comma To The Top, Archarcharch exit Derby injured (Brisnet)

·       Pants on Fire will rest until Haskell after bleeding in Kentucky Derby (DRF)

·       Derby Day handle increases, attendance a record (DRF)

·       Arlington trainer comes close with Nehro (Star-Telegram)


*It was reported that Comma To The Top sustained an ankle injury and Pants On Fire bled following the race

Animal Kingdom wins Kentucky Derby 137

Photo: Horsephotos.com

Kentucky Derby Winner: Animal Kingdom chart / video

Articles:

·       Animal Kingdom wins Kentucky Derby (NY Times) (Wall Street Journal) (Bloodhorse)

Master Of Hounds makes first training appearance, all eyes and ears on Friday Mo decision

Summary:

Master Of Hounds finally took his first steps on the Churchill track Thursday.  It was a very light effort that did not impress onlookers, however his appearance cannot be ignored.  Not only is he big, but he also has a compact yet powerful stride.  Uncle Mo put in a strong gallop, although the chances of him entering the Derby gate seem to diminish by the minute. A decision will be announced most likely early Friday.  Other horses that impressed Thursday morning were Mucho Macho Man (looking better each day), Shackleford (as always), Archx3 (I’m’ still not over the #1 draw), Animal Kingdom (another improver), and Twinspired (not a typo).  The recent reports on Soldat have been glowing, but I saw a horse that was fighting the bit and did not look comfortable// Robby Albarado, who suffered facial injuries from a Wednesday spill, will still be aboard Animal Kingdom in the Derby as expected// DRF does a rundown of where future wagers currently stand.  Decisive Moment leads the way with the best value at 186-1 from pool 1.  Dialed In, the favorite in the Derby, closed at 11-1 in one future pool, and Archarcharch was as high 50-1.  Don’t think futures are a smart bet, however, only 3 out of 110 horses from the Wynn Future Book in September actually made the Derby field// As we have seen during Derby week, the number of articles grows by the day.  Friday and Saturday CTD blog posts will be shorter due to the fact we’ll be at the races.  Be sure to still check out the site for our final Derby picks and wagers along with a unique new handicapping formula// more…

Kentucky Derby draw: Archarcharch gets dreaded #1, favorite Dialed In #8

Kentucky Derby (gr. I)
Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	Archarcharch	Jon Court	Jinks Fires	10-1
2	Brilliant Speed	Joel Rosario	Tom Albertrani	30-1
3	Twice the Appeal	Calvin Borel	Jeff Bonde	20-1
4	Stay Thirsty	Ramon Dominguez	Todd Pletcher	20-1
5	Decisive Moment	Kerwin Clark	Juan Arias	30-1
6	Comma to the Top	Patrick Valenzuela	Peter Miller	30-1
7	Pants On Fire	Rosie Napravnik	Kelly Breen	20-1
8	Dialed In	Julien Leparoux	Nick Zito	4-1
9	Derby Kitten	Javier Castellano	Mike Maker	30-1
10	Twinspired	Mike Smith	Mike Maker	30-1
11	Master of Hounds	Garrett Gomez	Aidan O'Brien	30-1
12	Santiva	Shaun Bridgmohan	Eddie Kenneally	30-1
13	Mucho Macho Man	Rajiv Maragh	Kathy Ritvo	12-1
14	Shackleford	Jesus Castanon	Dale Romans	12-1
15	Midnight Interlude	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	10-1
16	Animal Kingdom	Robby Albarado	H. Graham Motion	30-1
17	Soldat	Alan Garcia	Kiaran McLaughlin	12-1
18	Uncle Mo	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	9-2
19	Nehro	Corey Nakatani	Steve Asmussen	6-1
20	Watch Me Go	Rafael Bejarano	Kathleen O' Connell	50-1

Summary:

The all-important Derby draw offered the usual mix of restrained and unrestrained reactions from owners and trainers. Comma To The Top’s connections could not hide their relief when they avoided the dreaded #1 position.  That fell to serious contender Archarcharch, whose odds were raised to 10-1 from 8-1 based on the misfortune. Dialed In was installed as the 4-1 favorite and will start from position #8.  Handicappers will analyze all of the postpositions compared to each horse’s running style, but we’ve learned there is nothing close to certainty at any point in a 20-deep horse race. The complete list of entries, post positions, pps, video, and more can be found on the contender page here// Animal Kingdom’s rider Robby Albarado took a spill before a race at Churchill Wednesday and was rushed to the hospital.  His facial injuries will most likely not keep him out of the Derby Saturday// Almost all Derby entries were on the track today.  Most attention is centered on Uncle Mo as his appearance and activity are closely scrutinized.  Mike Welsch believes he was lighter in weight from last week, and owner Mike Repole is still uncertain of his running status.  A team of vets will closely examine Uncle Mo on Thursday and a decision should be announced by Friday// Of the other contenders on the track, Welsch commented Soldat, Archarcharch, Shackleford,, Mucho Macho Man, and Twinspired were on the muscle galloping over the dry track// more…

Shackleford blistering in work// Animal Kingdom sharp// Twice The Appeal and Mucho Macho Man not ideal

Shackleford after his workout. CTD 4-30-11

Summary:

Today’s hectic Kentucky Derby workout tab at Churchill Downs included a little bit of everything, including a huge throng of marathoners running through the infield during the 8:30am session, somewhat simulating the atmosphere that is expected in a week.  You had a sizzling bullet (Shackleford), an immature work (Mucho Macho Man), an encouraging first time dirt move (Animal Kingdom), and a generally unimpressive effort (Twice The Appeal).  In-depth analysis below in the links, but I will make a few backside observations of my own.  Shackleford was an absolute standout and had quite a presence on the track.  His front action seemed a little high but he was inhaling the track with each stride.  You could hear the whip on Mucho Macho Man from two furlongs away, as he needed encouragement to start his work.  Mike Welsch at the Daily Racing Form claims Twice The Appeal galloped out well after his subpar work, yet along the backside I caught several missteps that appeared as though he was not taking hold of the track.  Animal Kingdom was quickly tracking his workmate and moving well, but did not leave quite the same favorable impression as others reported// Over at the Churchill Trackside training center Twinspired put in a work that was described as mere “maintenance” move// Todd Plecher held a small press conference outside of barn 34.  He indicated that Uncle Mo’s appetite continues to improve, and the old Mo seems to be back.  He was anxious to see his work Sunday to validate the feeling.  Pletcher also revealed he was seriously considering Calvin Borel for the mount on Stay Thirsty, but decided to stick with the familiar Ramon Dominguez// Machen, who was once a buzz horse along the Triple Crown trail proved that shorter distance is more in his wheelhouse by winning the Derby Trial Stakes Saturday// more…

Borel gets Kentucky Derby mount, will pilot Twice The Appeal// Anthony’s Cross the latest bubble horse

Summary:

After a whirlwind day of major Kentucky Derby developments, Wednesday proved to be much calmer: there were no official workouts or defections from the top 20. However, several important decisions were still made, lead by the announcement that Calvin Borel secured a Derby mount. He will ride a longshot colt who was born May 10th, once raced in the claiming ranks, and made his way to Louisville via the Sunland Derby route.  No, they’re not allowing five-year-old Mine That Bird to run again in the Derby, Twice The Appeal will get the honor. It was also reported that Borel was recently offered the mount on Illinois Derby winner Watch Me Go but passed on the opportunity// Bob Baffert confirmed Victor Espinoza would stay on Midnight Interlude, despite first-call jock Martin Garcia losing his Derby mount due to The Factor’s defection.  Baffert said Espinoza’s timely use of the whip was reason to stay the course// Silver Medallion, the next in line for a Derby spot, was declared out which puts Anthony’s Cross on the bubble// Upcoming works include Dialed In Thursday, Decisive Moment Friday, and eight or nine moves for the weekend// The Derby weather forecast seemed to get some attention Wednesday.  As of now forecasters are predicting cool temperatures and rain, but of course that is all subject to change//Brad Free at the Daily Racing Form discusses the potential pace (or lack thereof) for the Derby. He claims with a tepid pace, the race could suit Midnight Interlude and Soldat// As expected, Larry Collmus was named as the race caller for the Triple Crown.

For a little detour from the daily news on horses, jockeys, owners and trainers check out Sarah Kelly’s “ABC’s” of the Derby in the Louisville Eccentric Observer.  It offers a realistic-- if not entirely flattering-- picture of what to expect if you happen to attend// more…

Derby Kitten takes Coolmore Lexington, Silver Medallion left out of Derby// Contender workout results vary

Derby Kitten                                                             Photo: Horsephotos.com

Summary:
Derby Kitten prevailed on a rainy and miserable day at Keeneland.  His win, and Silver Medallion’s 4^th place finish pretty much guarantees the latter will not enter the Kentucky Derby gate// Adios Charlie outran an impressive field in the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct that included Astrology and Cal Nation.  The Derby impact is minimal and winning trainer Stan Hough did not indicate a Triple Crown race was in the plans// Animal Kingdom’s work at Keeneland this morning was a mess.  Trainer Graham Motion blamed it on his workmate who didn’t want to train.  Animal Kingdom ended up going solo and the result was a poor final time.  It’s a situation you don’t want to deal with two weeks before the Big Dance, but he will have another work Saturday at Churchill// Shackleford had a much better effort 70 miles down the road at Churchill.  Trainer Dale Romans was pleased and now just needs two defections to make the Derby field// Pants On Fire had a toned down work compared to his last one eight days earlier, which is what trainer Kelly Breen wanted// PVal is booked to ride Comma To The Top which pretty much ensures he’ll set the Derby pace// more…

Kentucky Derby decisions: Who's in, most likely in, out, and undecided?

Summary:

I’ll admit, yesterday’s headline was a little misleading.  I intended to paint a picture of the Derby field being somewhat set with the last major preps out of the way and the final 20 in graded earnings just about solidified.  Monday reminded me how much will change-- or at least be in question-- all the way up to approximately 6pm on May 7^th.  

The news today for multiple Kentucky Derby prospects is difficult to keep track of, especially seeing as various outlets ran conflicting stories // Astrology, one of CTD’s favorite prospects, was officially ruled out of the Kentucky Derby.  Trainer Steve Asmussen said his return race at Sunland was a rough one, and he’s already too far behind in training.  The news was not surprising and obviously the right decision, but adds another chapter to the “what could have been” for Kentucky Derby 137.  For the moment, he is pointed to the Jerome Stakes in two weeks with the Preakness after that.  With that decision, Santiva, who had a lackluster performance in the Blue Grass Stakes, now assumes spot #20 for the Derby// The graded earnings chart could still change depending on the outcome of the upcoming Lexington Stakes.  Silver Medallion could be headed there and would crash the party with a 1^st or 2^nd finish// News varied slightly on the status of European contender Master Of Hounds. As it stands now, all signs point to Louisville, but his connections stopped short of 100% confirming him for May 7^th saying he “still has a few pieces of work”// Animal Kingdom, the winner of the Spiral Stakes at Turfway will work Saturday at Churchill where the results of that dirt try will determine if he’s to be entered in the Derby.  While that may sound like a possible window of opportunity for those on the outside, it’s usually the case the horse will be Derby-bound regardless// Interesting that Jay Privman says J P’s Gusto and The Factor are not likely to run in the Derby as I haven’t heard anything close to definitive from either trainer// Uncle Mo safely settled into his new stall at Churchill Downs.  A disappointing last race apparently costs you a police escort and a line of fans waiting for your arrival. Quotes from Todd Pletcher don’t sound especially encouraging for Uncle Mo to fully recover from his GI tract infection in time for the Derby// The Preakness has been confirmed for Norman Asbjornson, who finished 4^th in the Wood Memorial// more…

Churchill releases slew of Derby updates// Connections undecided on Flashpoint// Mystery solved on Gourmet Dinner

Summary:

Churchill Downs released three important Derby elements today- #1: the updated graded earnings list, which always differs slightly from other unofficial versions floating around.  #2: list of the 13 horses who filled in a late Triple Crown nomination, among them Tampa Bay Derby winner Watch Me Go and Rushaway Stakes winner Swift Warrior.  #3: preliminary odds for Future Pool #3.  Uncle Mo is still the favorite at 3-1 while there were 8 new additions including Premier Pegasus at 8-1 and other surprise Derby prep winners// Mystery solved on Gourmet Dinner, who ran an impressive second place in the Fountain Of Youth.  Brian Zipse spoke with trainer Steve Standridge and learned he’s definitely off the trail with a sore shin// Elite Alex is confirmed for the Arkansas Derby// You gotta love it when trainers and owners say they’re not eyeing the Kentucky Derby.  The connections of Data Link, Flashpoint, and Comma To The Top all claim racing at Churchill on May 7^th is not a priority. Most of the reasons are actually logical (distance, surface), but we’ll see if they hold that line after a good performance in an upcoming prep// more…

Twice The Appeal caps unappealing weekend// Big Guns Uncle Mo and Soldat work

Summary:

Long shot Twice The Appeal crawled home in 40 seconds in the final 3 furlongs to win the Sunland Derby. He and Astrology earned enough to book a trip to Louisville, but like other winners from this weekend don’t figure to have many backers at the betting window// Many important workouts today:  Early Kentucky Derby favorite Uncle Mo worked in company and took some dirt in the face.  Todd Pletcher was pleased with his response, but not thrilled with the work by his stablemate Stay Thirsty.  He seemed “intimidated” by struggling to never catch his older workmate. Pletcher is considering blinkers for the Florida Derby.  Soldat, another probable for the Florida Derby, impressed his trainer Kiaran McLaughlin in the manner he ran his 5 panels// The winners from yesterday’s Louisiana Derby and Spiral Stakes will race next in the Kentucky Derby. Pants On Fire, the winner in the Bayou, earned a 94 Beyer fig while Animal Kingdom gets a 92 from the Spiral.  2^nd and 3^rd place Nehro and Mucho Macho Man in Louisiana came out well and should go to the Derby.  Decisive Moment also earns a spot in the Derby gate with his second place money at Turfway// Mike Watchmaker from The Daily Racing Form sums up the weekend pretty nicely in the last article below// more…

3 big preps, 0 to get excited about: Pants On Fire and Animal Kingdom guaranteed for Derby gate and long odds// Sweet Ducky disappoints

Summary:

While the finish of the Louisiana Derby was exciting, the race as a whole was not impressive.  Pants On Fire tracked average fractions and fought on to win. Mucho Macho Man, who apparently lost a shoe, was in a perfect spot to pounce.  Elite Alex, who most everyone thinks ran the best race by closing like a freight train, probably won’t have the earnings to make the Derby gate unless his connections decide to squeeze him into a late prep. The most noteworthy accomplishment came from the winning jockey, Rosie Napravnik, who was the first woman jockey to win the Louisiana Derby in 98 years and could be the first to win the big one.  Second place Nehro is headed for the Arkansas Derby// In the interesting undercard allowance, much-hyped Bind couldn’t hold off Prime Cut.  The final time was less than a quarter second off the track record// As far as chasing the Derby goes, the lone contender in the UAE Derby, Sweet Ducky finished second-to-last.  No word from his trainer, but it looks like a trip back to the States will be ruled out// Animal Kingdom took the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes.  The son of Leroidesanimaux is probably another not to get too excited about for May 7^th.  He seems best suited for turf/poly over true dirt.  Favorite Positive Response had no response by finishing 8^th// Swift Warrior wins the undercard Rushaway Stakes at Turfway. He’s now headed for the Bluegrass Stakes. All this poly, all this mediocrity… the Florida Derby can’t come soon enough.