Toby’s Corner out, Derby Kitten in// Archarcharch gets unintentional official work// Kentucky Derby draw nears

Summary:

Toby’s Corner marks the 69^th promising horse off the Derby Trail, according to the respected and mysterious @DerbyContenders account on Twitter. He came up lame in his left hind leg after Sunday’s work in Maryland.  Derby Kitten takes spot #20 with Sway Away waiting in the wings. Javier Castellano gets the mount// No serious workouts were scheduled today, but the clocker decided to record Archarcharch’s gallop as an official move.  Everyone was surprised, including his trainer “Jinks” Fires. The half mile time was a slow 52 flat, but considering he was just coming off a bullet move from Friday and not really supposed to work in the first place, the gallop (or whatever it was) should help him stay fit for the upcoming mile and a quarter test// Recent reports on Uncle Mo seemed to suggest the probability of a defection from the Derby was fading with each day, but Tuesday brought more uncertainty as owner Mike Repole indicated he could still scratch as late as Saturday afternoon// Among today’s gallopers, Mike Welch highlights Mucho Macho Man, Soldat, and Shackleford who all continue to thrive// Tomorrow is the big draw which will be televised on Versus starting at 4pm// more... 

5 major Kentucky Derby workouts// Bejarano gets last remaining mount

Uncle Mo before his workout 5-1-11 CTD

Summary:

Of the five key Kentucky Derby workouts Sunday, the obvious headline was Uncle Mo, who worked in company with stablemate Stay Thirsty.  Reports were a mixed bag.  The connections were very pleased and Mike Welsch from the Daily Racing Form commented both horses seem to be doing “extremely well” based on how they completed their efforts without much urging, especially Stay Thirsty.  Other analysts and onlookers were not too impressed and noted Mo failed to pass his rival at any point.  For what it’s worth, I was able to see both exit the track and they seemed hardly winded// Pants On Fire, with Rosie Napravnik up, worked a half-mile in a quick 47:80.  Welsch says the move was a big improvement from his prior move, although the gallop out was not as good as the Pletcher duo// Comma To The Top worked in California in what was described by rider Patrick Valenzuela as “perfect”// Toby’s Corner put in his final work before the Derby in Maryland and trainer Graham Motion couldn’t be happier with how he’s coming into the Derby with both of his charges, the other being Animal Kingdom// Rafael Bejarano was fortunate enough to get a late Derby mount on Watch Me Go, who was moving quite well in the mud Sunday// Bubble horses Anthony’s Cross and Mr. Commons have been officially ruled out of entering the Derby, which leaves Lexington Stakes winner Derby Kitten as next in line// Monday’s scheduled works include Watch Me Go, Nehro, Midnight Interlude, and possibly Santiva// I’ve built a Kentucky Derby contender page with links to pps, video, breeding info, and comments.  I’ll be updating the information as the week moves along// Happy Derby week! You can tell it has arrived by the number of article links below...

The Factor returns to track for first time since surgery, uncertain for Kentucky Derby// Nehro, Comma work

Summary:

The backside whispers of The Factor recently undergoing minor surgery for flipping his soft palate turned out to be true as Bob Baffert confirmed to the Daily Racing Form on Monday.  The Factor was out on the Churchill Downs track for his first gallop since the myectomy and appeared to be moving well.  As for entering him in the Derby, Baffert was non-committal and opened the door for just about every possible next race scenario: Derby, Preakness, Met Mile, sprint, and "insert race name here"// While Nehro’s official workout was clocked at a slow 1:02.80, Mike Welsch claims the colt looked comfortable on the muddy Churchill track.  He did have his head cocked towards the infield and had to navigate through some traffic nearing the finish. In the workout report video he also touches on several key works and observations from the last few days.  Interesting notes are that Stay Thirsty and Pants on Fire did not gallop out very well and Archarcharch didn’t seem to like the muddy surface. Most impressive of all to him was Soldat last Thursday at Palm Meadows// No word on Comma To The Top’s workout at Hollywood.  The final time was not quick, but no other details available at the moment.

J P’s Gusto is still possible for the Kentucky Derby and a decision should be announced by Wednesday// Mike Watchmaker handicaps this year’s Derby preps, which offers a unique angle.  Although the lowest odds are not for the Arkansas Derby, he does note it as his first preference, which I would agree// There is still an outside chance Master Of Hounds will race this Saturday in the Two Thousand Guineas as opposed to the Derby// Uncle Mo and Midnight Interlude are scheduled to work at Churchill Tuesday (weather permitting)// An updated graded earnings list is linked below and Astrology is back on, although as we reported yesterday he is still doubtful for the Derby//

Several nice background articles today: Brilliant Speed’s upbringing at Live Oak Stud, Rosie Napravnik’s confidence and success in Louisiana, and breeder Carole Rio’s tales of Mucho Macho Man// more…

Derby Kitten takes Coolmore Lexington, Silver Medallion left out of Derby// Contender workout results vary

Derby Kitten                                                             Photo: Horsephotos.com

Summary:
Derby Kitten prevailed on a rainy and miserable day at Keeneland.  His win, and Silver Medallion’s 4^th place finish pretty much guarantees the latter will not enter the Kentucky Derby gate// Adios Charlie outran an impressive field in the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct that included Astrology and Cal Nation.  The Derby impact is minimal and winning trainer Stan Hough did not indicate a Triple Crown race was in the plans// Animal Kingdom’s work at Keeneland this morning was a mess.  Trainer Graham Motion blamed it on his workmate who didn’t want to train.  Animal Kingdom ended up going solo and the result was a poor final time.  It’s a situation you don’t want to deal with two weeks before the Big Dance, but he will have another work Saturday at Churchill// Shackleford had a much better effort 70 miles down the road at Churchill.  Trainer Dale Romans was pleased and now just needs two defections to make the Derby field// Pants On Fire had a toned down work compared to his last one eight days earlier, which is what trainer Kelly Breen wanted// PVal is booked to ride Comma To The Top which pretty much ensures he’ll set the Derby pace// more…

Borel: Hired Derby gun// Twice The Appeal not appealing in work

Summary:

Calvin Borel is scheduled to work Stay Thirsty on Sunday.  Trainer Todd Pletcher emphasized that he is not definite for the Derby mount, but it opens the door for the possibility of the same team repeating last year’s Derby scenario, when Borel guided “Todd Squad” B-lister Super Saver to a muddy win.  Apparently, Ramon Dominguez who has ridden the colt before and currently does not have a guaranteed Derby mount, decided to look elsewhere so Borel may very well be in the driver’s seat.  What makes the situation even more intriguing is the three-time Derby winner is not even a third call jockey for Pletcher any other time of the year// Sunland Derby winner Twice The Appeal worked a so-so 6 furlongs at Churchill// Jeremy Plonk warns to discount the Bluegrass Stakes at your own peril. He points out last year’s runners had money finishes in all three Triple Crown races// Nice background story on Jon Court’s long journey to ride in the Derby// Uncle Mo’s first official serious work since the Wood Memorial is scheduled for Tuesday// Speedster Flashpoint will skip the Derby Trial and point to the Preakness// more…

The Factor deserving of favoritism// Elite Alex overhyped// Pants On Fire working like it

Summary:

Ragozin figures suggest The Factor deserves his low odds and should come away the winner in the Arkansas Derby.  Handicapper picks and general online comments suggest many are still high on Elite Alex.  As much as I like the colt, I’ve decided to take a stand against him seeing as I’m guessing he will not go off at fair odds for a horse who has finished a well beaten 4^th and 3^rd in his last stakes.  The addition of blinkers and attempt to alter his running style also does not offer encouragement to me as it does for others// Sounds like Jaycito is back on track and still headed for the Lexington Stakes// Brian Zipse makes a case for respecting Toby’s Corner, which I tend to agree// Pants On Fire zipped a quick 5 panels in preparation for the Kentucky Derby// more…

Churchill releases slew of Derby updates// Connections undecided on Flashpoint// Mystery solved on Gourmet Dinner

Summary:

Churchill Downs released three important Derby elements today- #1: the updated graded earnings list, which always differs slightly from other unofficial versions floating around.  #2: list of the 13 horses who filled in a late Triple Crown nomination, among them Tampa Bay Derby winner Watch Me Go and Rushaway Stakes winner Swift Warrior.  #3: preliminary odds for Future Pool #3.  Uncle Mo is still the favorite at 3-1 while there were 8 new additions including Premier Pegasus at 8-1 and other surprise Derby prep winners// Mystery solved on Gourmet Dinner, who ran an impressive second place in the Fountain Of Youth.  Brian Zipse spoke with trainer Steve Standridge and learned he’s definitely off the trail with a sore shin// Elite Alex is confirmed for the Arkansas Derby// You gotta love it when trainers and owners say they’re not eyeing the Kentucky Derby.  The connections of Data Link, Flashpoint, and Comma To The Top all claim racing at Churchill on May 7^th is not a priority. Most of the reasons are actually logical (distance, surface), but we’ll see if they hold that line after a good performance in an upcoming prep// more…

First Derby horse arrives on Churchill grounds// Master Of Hounds may throw name in Derby hat// Dialed In better be on Saturday

Photo: Churchill Downs

Summary:

There’s probably not much buzz around the Twin Spires right now. It’s only one Derby horse. It’s only unheralded Decisive Moment. Nonetheless, his presence in stall 12 of Barn 41 this morning serves a reminder that the Kentucky Derby, less than 6 weeks away, is fast approaching.  Prep races from here out are serious, of the grade one variety. Jockeys (and their agents) are prepared to scratch, claw, and burn bridges for mounts. Trainers are racking their brains over timing, graded earnings, travel, surfaces, equipment changes, and all other matters related to squeezing their colt into the 20 horse field// Aidan O’Brien from across the pond didn’t make it easier for anyone as he announced the Derby is a possibility for Master Of Hounds, who finished 2^nd in the UAE Derby. His appearance on the crowded graded earnings list elbows out whoever will assume the #21 spot, plus adds another potential starter with real dirt questions// Matt Gardner makes a good point that Nick Zito possibly misjudged the campaign for Dialed In.  Seeing as the graded earnings mark to make the Derby is higher than usual, he will need a strong performance in the Florida Derby to make the gate in Louisville// In his weekly column, Steve Haskin makes a case for those horses who didn’t win last weekend’s preps but still showed promise: Elite Alex, Crimson China, Astrology, and Nehro.  Elite Alex and Nehro will have to run in the Arkansas Derby in order to get more earnings, while Astrology could end up there too, although only for fitness purposes// To Honor And Serve worked a bullet at Payson in preparation for this weekend’s Florida Derby. That field looks to be a relatively small 6 to 7 horses// Cris Collinsworth is this week’s celebrity top 10 for the Courier Journal// more…

Twice The Appeal caps unappealing weekend// Big Guns Uncle Mo and Soldat work

Summary:

Long shot Twice The Appeal crawled home in 40 seconds in the final 3 furlongs to win the Sunland Derby. He and Astrology earned enough to book a trip to Louisville, but like other winners from this weekend don’t figure to have many backers at the betting window// Many important workouts today:  Early Kentucky Derby favorite Uncle Mo worked in company and took some dirt in the face.  Todd Pletcher was pleased with his response, but not thrilled with the work by his stablemate Stay Thirsty.  He seemed “intimidated” by struggling to never catch his older workmate. Pletcher is considering blinkers for the Florida Derby.  Soldat, another probable for the Florida Derby, impressed his trainer Kiaran McLaughlin in the manner he ran his 5 panels// The winners from yesterday’s Louisiana Derby and Spiral Stakes will race next in the Kentucky Derby. Pants On Fire, the winner in the Bayou, earned a 94 Beyer fig while Animal Kingdom gets a 92 from the Spiral.  2^nd and 3^rd place Nehro and Mucho Macho Man in Louisiana came out well and should go to the Derby.  Decisive Moment also earns a spot in the Derby gate with his second place money at Turfway// Mike Watchmaker from The Daily Racing Form sums up the weekend pretty nicely in the last article below// more…

3 big preps, 0 to get excited about: Pants On Fire and Animal Kingdom guaranteed for Derby gate and long odds// Sweet Ducky disappoints

Summary:

While the finish of the Louisiana Derby was exciting, the race as a whole was not impressive.  Pants On Fire tracked average fractions and fought on to win. Mucho Macho Man, who apparently lost a shoe, was in a perfect spot to pounce.  Elite Alex, who most everyone thinks ran the best race by closing like a freight train, probably won’t have the earnings to make the Derby gate unless his connections decide to squeeze him into a late prep. The most noteworthy accomplishment came from the winning jockey, Rosie Napravnik, who was the first woman jockey to win the Louisiana Derby in 98 years and could be the first to win the big one.  Second place Nehro is headed for the Arkansas Derby// In the interesting undercard allowance, much-hyped Bind couldn’t hold off Prime Cut.  The final time was less than a quarter second off the track record// As far as chasing the Derby goes, the lone contender in the UAE Derby, Sweet Ducky finished second-to-last.  No word from his trainer, but it looks like a trip back to the States will be ruled out// Animal Kingdom took the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes.  The son of Leroidesanimaux is probably another not to get too excited about for May 7^th.  He seems best suited for turf/poly over true dirt.  Favorite Positive Response had no response by finishing 8^th// Swift Warrior wins the undercard Rushaway Stakes at Turfway. He’s now headed for the Bluegrass Stakes. All this poly, all this mediocrity… the Florida Derby can’t come soon enough.

San Vicente entries drawn, Baffert's tough choices, Uncle Mo makes new race nonexistent?

Summary:

As unpredictable as the road to the Derby can be, one thing is for certain- there will be drama.  The horseracing blogs and forums seemed to boil over today with several news items from earlier in the week or month: Baffert kicked Bejarano off The Factor, J P’s Gusto and Jaycito had trainer switches, and Uncle Mo may be entered in a race no one has heard of.  My take on some of this in the “thoughts” section below// The San Vicente drew 9 entries, Jaycito absent- another Baffert choice// Risen Star runners ready to roll// Nice background articles on major sites of ESPN (re; pedigree) and NY Times (re; Uncle Mo)

Entries:

San Vicente entries and a link to PPs can be found on the upcoming page here

Articles:

·       The Factor will face 8 others in San Vicente (Brisnet) (Bloodhorse)

·       Garcia replaces Bejarano on The Factor (Thoroughbred Times)

King Mo steps it up, bullets already flying for the El Camino, and more

CTD Daily Feed Summary:

Uncle Mo works nicely along with a slew of others including the likely two favorites for the Camino Real.  Nominations and some confirmations for the Camino. A coy response on Twinspired’s next race plans.

Toby's Corner romps, Shackleford advances, Twinspired takes WEBN

CTD Daily Feed Summary:

Toby’s Corner splashes to Whirlaway win.  Shackleford books a spot in the Fountain of Youth. Favored Twinspired wins the WEBN easily. Is it me, or did it look like they were running in quicksand down the stretch? Nice works from Rogue Romance and Pants on Fire while Astrology returns, albeit slowly.