The Factor returns to track for first time since surgery, uncertain for Kentucky Derby// Nehro, Comma work

Summary:

The backside whispers of The Factor recently undergoing minor surgery for flipping his soft palate turned out to be true as Bob Baffert confirmed to the Daily Racing Form on Monday.  The Factor was out on the Churchill Downs track for his first gallop since the myectomy and appeared to be moving well.  As for entering him in the Derby, Baffert was non-committal and opened the door for just about every possible next race scenario: Derby, Preakness, Met Mile, sprint, and "insert race name here"// While Nehro’s official workout was clocked at a slow 1:02.80, Mike Welsch claims the colt looked comfortable on the muddy Churchill track.  He did have his head cocked towards the infield and had to navigate through some traffic nearing the finish. In the workout report video he also touches on several key works and observations from the last few days.  Interesting notes are that Stay Thirsty and Pants on Fire did not gallop out very well and Archarcharch didn’t seem to like the muddy surface. Most impressive of all to him was Soldat last Thursday at Palm Meadows// No word on Comma To The Top’s workout at Hollywood.  The final time was not quick, but no other details available at the moment.

J P’s Gusto is still possible for the Kentucky Derby and a decision should be announced by Wednesday// Mike Watchmaker handicaps this year’s Derby preps, which offers a unique angle.  Although the lowest odds are not for the Arkansas Derby, he does note it as his first preference, which I would agree// There is still an outside chance Master Of Hounds will race this Saturday in the Two Thousand Guineas as opposed to the Derby// Uncle Mo and Midnight Interlude are scheduled to work at Churchill Tuesday (weather permitting)// An updated graded earnings list is linked below and Astrology is back on, although as we reported yesterday he is still doubtful for the Derby//

Several nice background articles today: Brilliant Speed’s upbringing at Live Oak Stud, Rosie Napravnik’s confidence and success in Louisiana, and breeder Carole Rio’s tales of Mucho Macho Man// more…

Jaycito latest off the list, Astrology still possible?// Churchill based contenders enjoy the mud// Pletcher feels good about Mo

Summary:

Jaycito is no longer being pointed to the Kentucky Derby.  The news is not a real shocker seeing as he has been battling a bruised foot and missed several planned prep races and workouts.  The Belmont Stakes could still be in the cards.  His absence allows Watch Me Go to enter the Derby scene with Shackleford on deck// Interestingly, Churchill Downs published an updated graded earnings list on their website Sunday that had Astrology back among the top 20.  It was quickly removed, but when CTD asked Director of Communications Darren Rogers for clarification, he responded Astrology was “unlikely, but let’s wait and see if Derby Fever hits”//

Another rainy Louisville morning didn’t stop two contenders from putting in official works.  Stay Thirsty blazed a bullet five panels in a minute flat with Calvin Borel aboard.  While it was stated publicly that Borel was testing the colt for his rail-skimming ability, there were also rumors he has the inside track to run European invader Master Of Hounds in the Derby. Mucho Macho Man took an extended seven furlongs, but wasn’t pressed too much.  Trainer Kathy Ritvo says it was merely a maintenance move.  He seemed to enjoy the messy track while kicking his front legs very high. Midnight Interlude was also swishing around and seemed to be playing more than working.  He needed some encouragement to leave the track as he was having too much fun.  Decisive Moment continues to get low whisper praise as he glides over the wet conditions effortlessly// Jennie Rees was able to get some newsworthy quotes from Todd Pletcher.  He sounds very positive on Uncle Mo’s recovery from a GI tract infection// more…

Derby Kitten takes Coolmore Lexington, Silver Medallion left out of Derby// Contender workout results vary

Derby Kitten                                                             Photo: Horsephotos.com

Summary:
Derby Kitten prevailed on a rainy and miserable day at Keeneland.  His win, and Silver Medallion’s 4^th place finish pretty much guarantees the latter will not enter the Kentucky Derby gate// Adios Charlie outran an impressive field in the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct that included Astrology and Cal Nation.  The Derby impact is minimal and winning trainer Stan Hough did not indicate a Triple Crown race was in the plans// Animal Kingdom’s work at Keeneland this morning was a mess.  Trainer Graham Motion blamed it on his workmate who didn’t want to train.  Animal Kingdom ended up going solo and the result was a poor final time.  It’s a situation you don’t want to deal with two weeks before the Big Dance, but he will have another work Saturday at Churchill// Shackleford had a much better effort 70 miles down the road at Churchill.  Trainer Dale Romans was pleased and now just needs two defections to make the Derby field// Pants On Fire had a toned down work compared to his last one eight days earlier, which is what trainer Kelly Breen wanted// PVal is booked to ride Comma To The Top which pretty much ensures he’ll set the Derby pace// more…

Borel: Hired Derby gun// Twice The Appeal not appealing in work

Summary:

Calvin Borel is scheduled to work Stay Thirsty on Sunday.  Trainer Todd Pletcher emphasized that he is not definite for the Derby mount, but it opens the door for the possibility of the same team repeating last year’s Derby scenario, when Borel guided “Todd Squad” B-lister Super Saver to a muddy win.  Apparently, Ramon Dominguez who has ridden the colt before and currently does not have a guaranteed Derby mount, decided to look elsewhere so Borel may very well be in the driver’s seat.  What makes the situation even more intriguing is the three-time Derby winner is not even a third call jockey for Pletcher any other time of the year// Sunland Derby winner Twice The Appeal worked a so-so 6 furlongs at Churchill// Jeremy Plonk warns to discount the Bluegrass Stakes at your own peril. He points out last year’s runners had money finishes in all three Triple Crown races// Nice background story on Jon Court’s long journey to ride in the Derby// Uncle Mo’s first official serious work since the Wood Memorial is scheduled for Tuesday// Speedster Flashpoint will skip the Derby Trial and point to the Preakness// more…

Watch Me Go to the Derby// Jaycito absent from Lexington// J P's drama

Summary:

When entries were drawn for the Coolmore Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, the anticipated main attraction was missing from the small field of six.  Jaycito, who has recently assumed the role of this year’s “wise-guy” horse—more for what he hasn’t done than what he’s actually accomplished—was deemed unfit by trainer Bob Baffert.  Amazingly, he’s still pointed for the Kentucky Derby where he will run off of an eight-week layoff and questionable bruised foot.  The Lexington field does include Silver Medallion who needs a 1^st or 2^nd place finish to qualify for the Derby// Another graded three-year-old stakes, the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct, drew a competitive field of former CTD Trackers.  While there are no Derby implications, it will be an important tune-up for Astrology whose connections hope to move on to the Preakness// Apparently The Bloodhorse has a vested interest in Blue Grass Stakes winner Brilliant Speed. They published two articles today touting his pedigree and making excuses for his poor dirt tries// Derby mount-less jockeys are in the news again and we can expect to hear much more on that as draw day nears.  Derby winners Calvin Borel, Mike Smith, and Edgar Prado, plus top money earners Ramon Dominguez, Garrett Gomez, and Martin Garcia are all in limbo// Watch Me Go, currently #21 on the Derby list, worked at Tampa Bay today and was declared headed to Churchill. His team will be rooting against Silver Medallion Saturday plus will need another defection.  Midnight Interlude, guaranteed a spot in the Derby field, put in his final California move (a bullet) before boarding a plane to Louisville// The connections of J P’s Gusto have provided the best soap opera along the Derby trail this year.  The colt has been plagued by knee-jerk decisions from his owners and trainers (emphasis on the plural) and nothing has changed close to two weeks from Derby.  Current trainer Joe Petalino had no idea of the whereabouts or Derby intentions for his horse and surmises he may no longer train him// more…

Kentucky Derby decisions: Who's in, most likely in, out, and undecided?

Summary:

I’ll admit, yesterday’s headline was a little misleading.  I intended to paint a picture of the Derby field being somewhat set with the last major preps out of the way and the final 20 in graded earnings just about solidified.  Monday reminded me how much will change-- or at least be in question-- all the way up to approximately 6pm on May 7^th.  

The news today for multiple Kentucky Derby prospects is difficult to keep track of, especially seeing as various outlets ran conflicting stories // Astrology, one of CTD’s favorite prospects, was officially ruled out of the Kentucky Derby.  Trainer Steve Asmussen said his return race at Sunland was a rough one, and he’s already too far behind in training.  The news was not surprising and obviously the right decision, but adds another chapter to the “what could have been” for Kentucky Derby 137.  For the moment, he is pointed to the Jerome Stakes in two weeks with the Preakness after that.  With that decision, Santiva, who had a lackluster performance in the Blue Grass Stakes, now assumes spot #20 for the Derby// The graded earnings chart could still change depending on the outcome of the upcoming Lexington Stakes.  Silver Medallion could be headed there and would crash the party with a 1^st or 2^nd finish// News varied slightly on the status of European contender Master Of Hounds. As it stands now, all signs point to Louisville, but his connections stopped short of 100% confirming him for May 7^th saying he “still has a few pieces of work”// Animal Kingdom, the winner of the Spiral Stakes at Turfway will work Saturday at Churchill where the results of that dirt try will determine if he’s to be entered in the Derby.  While that may sound like a possible window of opportunity for those on the outside, it’s usually the case the horse will be Derby-bound regardless// Interesting that Jay Privman says J P’s Gusto and The Factor are not likely to run in the Derby as I haven’t heard anything close to definitive from either trainer// Uncle Mo safely settled into his new stall at Churchill Downs.  A disappointing last race apparently costs you a police escort and a line of fans waiting for your arrival. Quotes from Todd Pletcher don’t sound especially encouraging for Uncle Mo to fully recover from his GI tract infection in time for the Derby// The Preakness has been confirmed for Norman Asbjornson, who finished 4^th in the Wood Memorial// more…

Kentucky Derby attention turns to early odds and big upcoming preps

The Factor arrives at Oaklawn (Photo: Oaklawn Park)

Summary:

I made a decision today to discontinue posting links to analysis and opinion on Uncle Mo’s performance in the Wood (aside from Steve Haskin’s weekly blog).  With an apparent clean bill of health and all signs pointing to him running next in the Kentucky Derby, it’s time to move on to other trail doings for the time being.  Not only are we coming up to the final weekend of major prep races, but Churchill Downs also decided to release odds this afternoon for the Kentucky Derby if it was held today.  The purpose apparently was to merely start a conversation, and within an hour it was clear mission was accomplished.  Opinions were as varied as they were for last Saturday’s prep results. Among them were that no horse in the wide-open crop should be lower than 5-1, Uncle Mo’s odds at 4-1 were way off line, and oddsmaker Mike Battaglia had generally lost his mind. I’ve pasted his odds below.

The Factor, a possible favorite in the Kentucky Derby, returned to the Oaklawn grounds today.  Two of his competitors for the Arkansas Derby, J W Blue and Archarcharch put in their final works// With the torrential downpour occurring in and around Kentucky, Blue Grass Stakes probable Swift Warrior had his scheduled work delayed until Wednesday// Dialed In, another potential favorite for the Derby, had his first work since winning the Florida Derby.  Nick Zito seemed pleased and stated the colt will only have one more serious work for the Derby, which is unorthodox, but a formula that has proven to be effective// It sounds like Astrology may be pointed to the Preakness instead of the Derby due to falling behind in training and racing// more…


Kentucky Derby odds (if held today)
The Factor (7-2); Dialed In (4-1); Uncle Mo (4-1); Soldat (10-1); Toby’s Corner (10-1); Midnight Interlude (12-1); Mucho Macho Man (12-1); Animal Kingdom (15-1); Pants On Fire (15-1); Santiva (20-1); Shackleford (20-1); Comma to the Top (30-1); Jaycito (30-1); Stay Thirsty (30-1); Astrology (50-1); Decisive Moment (50-1); J P’s Gusto (50-1); Master of Hounds (50-1); Twice the Appeal (50-1);and Watch Me Go (50-1)- Mike Battaglia

Arkansas Derby could get 13// Blue Grass loses 1// Mo opinions on Wood

Summary:

The latest official graded earnings list was released today.  As expected, Midnight Interlude and Toby’s Corner are guaranteed-in-the-gate newcomers while a slew of others hover around the 20^th and final spot hoping for either more defections or no further surprises.  If colts other than The Factor, Santiva, or J P’s Gusto finish strong in the upcoming Arkansas Derby or Blue Grass Stakes, the impact could be felt by those in spots anywhere from 17 to 25.

As it stands now, the Arkansas Derby looks to have 13 starters, just one shy of a full gate//The Blue Grass lost a probable starter in Data Link who was injured during his final workout.  Two other contenders, King Congie and Wilkinson put in their final works// Jaycito, one of Baffert’s three Derby hopefuls and a scratch in Santa Anita Derby due to a sore foot, returned to the track and seems likely for the Lexington Stakes//

More analysis and opinion on the Wood Memorial.  As usual, Gary West offers an intriguing and thorough take// While Uncle Mo’s disappointment and Toby’s Corner’s triumph have been the main focus, overlooked second place finisher Arthur’s Tale finally grabbed some attention in articles and rankings today. There are even a few who feel he may be peaking in similar fashion to his sire Bernardini, but I don’t see it.  Arthur’s Tale has been racing since July and only began showing promise in December.  While his finish in the Wood was a big step forward, it in no way compares to Bernardini’s quick ascent to dominance and brilliance// Several good points from various blogs today, including A Saturday Afternoon Horse, who wonders if Victor Espinoza’s hard handling of Midnight Interlude in the Santa Anita Derby could cost him four weeks down the road in the Derby// more...

Uncle Mo faces flight delay, possible wet track in Wood// Astrology crawls in work// Dosage index explained and debated

Summary:

More notable than Uncle Mo’s travel hiccup Tuesday is that storms are forecast again for Saturday, which would force the early Kentucky Derby favorite to run on his first wet track.  It may prove telling as the Derby seems to always have a 50/50 chance of mud// You may or may not know much about the dosage index, but it’s perceived importance in measuring Derby potential in a horse seems to diminish more each year.  Nonetheless, Scott Jagow, a student at the University of Louisville Equine program, does a fine job explaining how the number is derived// Astrology, who cracked the CTD Top 5, worked a slow 4 furlongs in 51:80.  Silver Medallion, an anticipated starter in Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby worked more than 3 seconds faster in the same breezing fashion. While that race will be his first on dirt, he apparently has been responding well to it in the morning//more…

First Derby horse arrives on Churchill grounds// Master Of Hounds may throw name in Derby hat// Dialed In better be on Saturday

Photo: Churchill Downs

Summary:

There’s probably not much buzz around the Twin Spires right now. It’s only one Derby horse. It’s only unheralded Decisive Moment. Nonetheless, his presence in stall 12 of Barn 41 this morning serves a reminder that the Kentucky Derby, less than 6 weeks away, is fast approaching.  Prep races from here out are serious, of the grade one variety. Jockeys (and their agents) are prepared to scratch, claw, and burn bridges for mounts. Trainers are racking their brains over timing, graded earnings, travel, surfaces, equipment changes, and all other matters related to squeezing their colt into the 20 horse field// Aidan O’Brien from across the pond didn’t make it easier for anyone as he announced the Derby is a possibility for Master Of Hounds, who finished 2^nd in the UAE Derby. His appearance on the crowded graded earnings list elbows out whoever will assume the #21 spot, plus adds another potential starter with real dirt questions// Matt Gardner makes a good point that Nick Zito possibly misjudged the campaign for Dialed In.  Seeing as the graded earnings mark to make the Derby is higher than usual, he will need a strong performance in the Florida Derby to make the gate in Louisville// In his weekly column, Steve Haskin makes a case for those horses who didn’t win last weekend’s preps but still showed promise: Elite Alex, Crimson China, Astrology, and Nehro.  Elite Alex and Nehro will have to run in the Arkansas Derby in order to get more earnings, while Astrology could end up there too, although only for fitness purposes// To Honor And Serve worked a bullet at Payson in preparation for this weekend’s Florida Derby. That field looks to be a relatively small 6 to 7 horses// Cris Collinsworth is this week’s celebrity top 10 for the Courier Journal// more…

Twice The Appeal caps unappealing weekend// Big Guns Uncle Mo and Soldat work

Summary:

Long shot Twice The Appeal crawled home in 40 seconds in the final 3 furlongs to win the Sunland Derby. He and Astrology earned enough to book a trip to Louisville, but like other winners from this weekend don’t figure to have many backers at the betting window// Many important workouts today:  Early Kentucky Derby favorite Uncle Mo worked in company and took some dirt in the face.  Todd Pletcher was pleased with his response, but not thrilled with the work by his stablemate Stay Thirsty.  He seemed “intimidated” by struggling to never catch his older workmate. Pletcher is considering blinkers for the Florida Derby.  Soldat, another probable for the Florida Derby, impressed his trainer Kiaran McLaughlin in the manner he ran his 5 panels// The winners from yesterday’s Louisiana Derby and Spiral Stakes will race next in the Kentucky Derby. Pants On Fire, the winner in the Bayou, earned a 94 Beyer fig while Animal Kingdom gets a 92 from the Spiral.  2^nd and 3^rd place Nehro and Mucho Macho Man in Louisiana came out well and should go to the Derby.  Decisive Moment also earns a spot in the Derby gate with his second place money at Turfway// Mike Watchmaker from The Daily Racing Form sums up the weekend pretty nicely in the last article below// more…

Positive Response needs just that in Spiral Stakes// Astrology’s 2011 debut begins in the outside post with possible jet-lagged jockey?

Summary:

Sunland Derby entries closed today with 11.  Astrology’s much anticipated 2011 debut got that much harder with a far outside post. I noticed Julien Leparoux has the mount. Are there any concerns with coming back from racing in Dubai the day before?// 12 horses are lined up for the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes at Turfway.  Positive Response is installed as the 3-1 favorite based on his romp in the Battaglia Stakes.  None of the horses in the field qualify for the Derby…yet.  Win and they’re in with $300,000 in graded earnings// While Populist Politics is a definite scratch from the Louisiana Derby, the rumor of Pants On Fire joining him are untrue according to his trainer// more…

Mucho Macho Man grabs Tuesday headlines// Asmussen high on Maclean’s Music// The Factor in same breath as Big Brown, Fusaichi Pegasus?

Summary:

Today was Mucho Macho Man’s day in the press. From appearing lifeless at birth, owners who paid as little as $800 a share, and a trainer who is living a second life on a heart transplant, it’s a guarantee there will be a signature NBC segment on Derby Day// In other Louisiana Derby news, long shot Populist Politics was scratched.  Elite Alex’s trainer Tim Ritchey says the million dollar purse and long stretch were reasons to enter.  He’s currently on the outside looking in to the Derby// Several articles today on Maclean’s Music, the most recent blistering maiden winner at Santa Anita I touched on yesterday.  Trainer Steve Asmussen didn’t rule anything out, but due to timing he may have to point for the Preakness.  The Bloodhorse story has several other good tidbits from Asmussen; Astrology, scheduled to race Sunday in the Sunland Derby, had a delayed start due to illness and he was also not pleased with Garret Gomez’s trip aboard Albergatti in the San Felipe (neither was my wager)// Mike Shutty draws comparisons between The Factor’s performance on Saturday and the second-to-last prep races of Derby winners Big Brown and Fusaichi Pegasus// more…

Gomez’s agent wouldn’t trade places with The Factor// Astrology going to Sunland Derby// Louisiana Derby coming up light...

Summary:

Garret Gomez’s colorful agent Ron Anderson makes some bold statements on Sway Away vs. The Factor in the upcoming Rebel Stakes. He says The Factor “is not going to outrun” him, which I actually tend to agree.  The Daily Racing Form claims Sway Away could be on the pace based on his June 2010 maiden, which doesn’t really hold up considering he’s been off of it his last two races// Speaking of the Rebel, it’s worth noting Dreaminforthewin has been battling a quarter crack// We have what seems to be a definite destination for Astrology: The Sunland Derby March 26. That leaves only 3 weeks between his next possible prep and then another 4 weeks for the Derby.  Many think that’s too tight, especially coming off a long layoff// Gomez gets the mount on To Honor and Serve which makes sense considering Johnny Velazquez has Mo duties // Steve Crist says don’t worry about Uncle Mo’s low Beyer from the Timely Writer// Norman Asbjornson, 2^nd place in the Gotham, is headed to the Wood Memorial and gets a late Triple Crown nomination//For more in-depth reporting on the connections of Premier Pegasus be sure to check out the two part article from Stride Live// // More fallout on the sale of Sweet Ducky to controversial Chechan President.  The original owners are claiming they had no clue.

Spotlight still shines on PrePeg// Archarcharch fires bullet for potential overflowing Rebel//Sweet Ducky goes to Chechan President...

Summary:

Despite Mike Shutty from Horseracing Nation claiming Premier Pegasus is a second tier contender, you still can’t help but get excited after reading more about PrePeg today. In two separate articles, Steve Haskin and Joe Drape shed light on Myung Kwon Cho and his small but effective owning and training operation. Finally, there appears to more to the 2011 Derby than just the Uncle Mo show// Southwest winner Archarcharch fires a bullet for the Rebel. His owners have been fielding offers in the 2 million range but turned them down// 3 other Rebel contenders work// What’s going on with Astrology? He continues to work yet keeps skipping races.  The Rebel is the latest cancellation. No word from Asmussen// The new owner of Sweet Ducky was revealed: Chechan President Ramzan Kadyrov, who is not well respected. Russian Derby could be next// Uncle Mo’s owner Mike Repole bought another Indian Charlie colt today. Can lightning strike twice?

Astrology puts in solid work// Positive Response Staying Put// Awesome Patriot to try a step up//Dialed In’s performance evaluated//Repole talks//New rankings

Summary:

Astrology puts in a solid 7 furlong work today. He’s still pointed for the Rebel on 3/19// Positive Response will stay at Turfway and point to the Vinery Spiral Stakes// Jennie Rees claims Dialed In’s performance Sunday was actually pretty good considering how fast he ran the final furlong// Awesome Patriot steps into the deep end// Ed DeRosa brings up an interesting angle: the trend of Derby contenders being sold to millionaires has minimized considerably// Mike Repole held a press conference and offered flashy quotes on his excitement, Todd Pletcher’s taxes, and more// Derby prop bets are available. Dead heat at 30-1? I’ll pass// Several new rankings…

Stay Thirsty 9-5 favorite in Gotham. Astrology in, Uncle Brent out of Rebel. Mucho confirmed for Louisiana Derby. Any real interest in a Swale Stakes “Challenge”?

Summary:

Nine entries drawn for Gotham, including Stay Thirsty// Many future race decisions were made: Astrology to Rebel, Mucho Macho Man to Louisiana Derby, and maiden winner Albergatti to San Felipe// Uncle Brent has new trainer and will not go in Rebel// The most interesting story from today is the “Swale Challenge” idea from the owner of Flashpoint.  While a matchup with the Factor would be nice, I’m not sure that’s worth one million for Gulfstream.   We’re not talking about Zenyatta vs. Rachel.  Many general racing fans have probably never heard of these three year olds. Also, who is going to back either of those horses in the Derby coming off of two sprint preps and questions surrounding pedigree?

Rebel to get new shooter// Astrology stretches to 6 panels// Toby’s Corner the Gotham Sleeper?

Summary: Crossbow officially off the trai// There will be another maiden winner thrown to the Derby Prep wolves- and another Uncle. Uncle Brent most likely will be asked to stretch from his 6 furlong 89 Beyer performance last Saturday to the Rebel Stakes// Interesting stat in the first article below. 8 of the 11 graded Derby preps have been won by horses who were first or second at every call.  While that leads to the obvious point of looking for more patient runners, it must be noted some of those winners have sat off the pace in earlier races (Soldat, Brethren).  Plus, others in that group of 8 may prove to be sprinters (The Factor, Flashpoint)//

Toby's Corner romps, Shackleford advances, Twinspired takes WEBN

CTD Daily Feed Summary:

Toby’s Corner splashes to Whirlaway win.  Shackleford books a spot in the Fountain of Youth. Favored Twinspired wins the WEBN easily. Is it me, or did it look like they were running in quicksand down the stretch? Nice works from Rogue Romance and Pants on Fire while Astrology returns, albeit slowly.