Dust settles with diverse opinions on Uncle Mo, jumbled Derby picture, case of fever

Summary:

As disappointment from yesterday’s prep races still lingers, it’s time clear the fog and try to keep our eyes on the trail.  Just because the next “great superhorse” failed to deliver in only his second start of the year, going the farthest he’s ever gone, doesn’t mean the Kentucky Derby is in shambles or less enticing.  There are positives: Odds and payouts will undoubtedly be juicy and you can now make a case for almost all of the entries.  Plus, who knows-- with the rapid improvement we’ve seen in the last two weeks from horses like Shackleford, Toby’s Corner, and Midnight Interlude, the sport’s next big thing could be lurking.

Here’s what we learned from yesterday:

-       Toby’s Corner, winner of the Wood, ran the last 1/8^th in less than 12 seconds, the fastest of any Derby contender going a route distance this year.

-       Toby’s Corner will ship late to Churchill and continue to train on Tapeta surface.

-       Despite rumors, Uncle Mo seems to be fine and will ship to Churchill on April 18. He grabbed a quarter, the size of a nickel, and will heal quickly.  Nonetheless they will pull blood work Tuesday to verify his soundness.

-       Opinions on Mo’s performance and future ability vary greatly as expected— all the way to the point of some thinking he’ll never race again to others thinking he’s still the Derby favorite. I’ve included several blog posts that hit different parts of the spectrum.

-       Comma To The Top’s trainer was fairly adamant about not running in the Derby before the Santa Anita Derby, but the tune has changed Sunday. Sounds like he’s probable.

-       Beyer Speed figures:

o   Wood Memorial: Toby’s Corner 94, Arthur’s Tale 93, Uncle Mo 91

o   Santa Anita Derby: Midnight Interlude 95, Comma To The Top 95, Mr. Commons 91

o   Illinois Derby: Joe Vann 93, Zoebear 86, The Fed Eased 85

In other news, there were quite a few works for the Blue Grass Stakes today including 3 from Todd Pletcher trainees; Praetereo, Sensational Slam, and Quesns’splatekitten// The Factor put in his final work ahead of the Arkansas Derby where he will be the short-priced favorite. A big performance there and he’ll likely be the favorite for the Kentucky Derby// more...

Day of upsets, where does this leave us?

Summary:

Tobys Corner wins Wood Memorial, Photo: Horsephotos.com

It was not a question of if he would win, but by how much and in what manner.  However, as the Wood Memorial and horseracing in general have proven before, nothing is a sure bet. The once guaranteed favorite for the Kentucky Derby, Uncle Mo, ended up looking as average as the rest of the 2011 three-year-old stakes crop. Setting honest fractions, not responding to the whip, and ultimately tiring to third you could probably hear a pin drop at Aqueduct after the race. Apparently, Uncle Mo did grab a quarter (stepped on himself and tore off a piece of tissue), but tests and time will tell just how much of an excuse it was.  The winner, Toby’s Corner, was the second choice and able to capture the same race his sire Bellamy Road dominated six years ago.  Wearing blinkers, he was shuffled back in the beginning but managed to relax behind horses on the rail.  Down the stretch, he swung wide and picked off Mo and eventual second place finisher Arthur’s Tale.  He will move onto Louisville as well as Arthur’s Tale, the latter only if $200K will be good enough to qualify. As for Uncle Mo, Todd Pletcher remained non-committal for the Derby and said he needs to see how the colt trains at Churchill before making a decision.  Many will question Pletcher’s 2011 conditioning and race strategy for Uncle Mo, but I’m thinking it may have set him up nicely for the big one.

Midnight Interlude(Left), Photo: Horsephotos.com

Midnight Interlude advanced from maiden winner to Grade 1 winner in one step by nipping Comma To The Top in the Santa Anita Derby.  He was able to overcome traffic issues and greenness in the stretch to stamp himself a legitimate threat to the now wide-open Kentucky Derby. If Jaycito still remains pointed to the Derby, Bob Baffert could have three Kentucky Derby entries.  Comma To The Top, who set quick fractions and only lost by a head, ran perhaps the gutsiest performance but remains unlikely for the Derby. Mr. Commons, another first-time stakes entrant took 3rd but will probably fall short of the Derby gate.

Joe Vann won the lower regarded Illinois Derby.  Its relevance to the Kentucky Derby is probably negligible as he only picked up $180K and is not nominated for the Triple Crown// 5 big workouts by Arkansas Derby contenders Alternation, Brethren, Truman’s Commander, Dance City, and J P’s Gusto.  Alternation, who flipped in the gate for the Rebel has been progressing faster than his trainer Donnie Von Hemel anticipated.  He now seems likely to run in Oaklawn’s premier race along with the others// Mucho Macho Man fired a bullet at Gulfstream and will ship to Churchill next Sunday// Santiva and Willcox Inn took their final workouts ahead of next Saturday’s Blue Grass Stakes// more…