The chase ends: Wildcard Animal Kingdom takes the roses, Preakness next

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Summary:

We shouldn’t have been surprised.  If you’ve been following the Derby Trail at all this year, the fact an overlooked long shot with a thin resume emphatically wins America’s greatest horse race was only fitting.  Animal Kingdom was a wildcard going in.  He had never raced on dirt, yet backside onlookers had sung praises of how he was training and coming into the race.  His dirt pedigree was questionable.  Sired by turf champion Leroidesanimaux, a majority of his offspring race and win on turf or synthetic surfaces.  Trainer Graham Motion insisted afterwards if horses are of a certain caliber, "they can handle the switchover”.  While that was true for the winner of the 2011 Kentucky Derby and somewhat supported further with Master of Hounds close fifth place finish, it is not the norm.  It happens in horse racing. It does not happen often, and that is why handicappers will continue to take pedigree into account.

The results of the Kentucky Derby seem to always provide multi-layered storylines of firsts, opportunity, redemption, and missed chances, and this year was no different.  It was the first Derby win for both jockey John Velazquez and trainer Graham Motion. It looked as though Velazquez would be watching the Derby on television from the Jock’s room when two-year-old champion Uncle Mo was scratched Friday.  Opportunity rang later when Animal Kingdom’s owner, Barry Irwin, decided to use his services instead of recently injured Robby Albarado.  Albarado insisted he was ready, but Irwin did not want to take the chance, and the decision ultimately took the jockey off the winner.  After 12 failed attempts and 3 late defections Velazquez finally got to smell the roses. Trainer Graham Motion also persevered through losing his leading challenger Toby’s Corner to an injury sustained last Sunday.

Second and third place finishers Nehro and Mucho Macho Man should be commended for running well, but aside from the winner, fourth place Shackleford ran most impressive.  Considering the track was not speed favoring and the fact frontrunners usually don’t fare well in the Derby, his effort was truly gutsy. Some will say the fractions were slow, which they were in comparison to recent Derbies, but the pace was still fair for a mile and a quarter race. Pants On Fire*, Soldat, Decisive Moment, and Comma To The Top* also gave close chase in the beginning but faded to 9^th, 11^th, 14^th, and 19^th respectively.

As for CTD’s picks, they were nowhere close.  Unfortunately top pick Archarcharch sustained a condylar fracture and was retired, but it appears he will recover.

What will the future bring? It looks as though Animal Kingdom is headed to Baltimore for the Preakness.  Who knows, we could have a superstar on our hands considering the way he took to dirt in his first try, his running style, and long distance pedigree. Here’s hoping for the first Triple Crown winner since 1978…

Stats from the Kentucky Derby:

·       Beyer Speed Figures: Animal Kingdom 103; Nehro 99; Mucho Macho Man 99; Shackleford 97; Master of Hounds 95; Santiva 95

·       Animal Kingdom (courtesy of Churchill Downs)

o   First horse since Needles in 1956 to win the Kentucky Derby off a six-week layoff

o   Fifth horse since 1900 to win Derby off 4 or fewer starts

o   First winner to break its maiden at Keeneland since Forward Pass in 1968.

o   Fifth consecutive winner with only two starts as a 3-year-old prior

Articles:

·       Graham Motion: “Yesterday was surreal” (Bloodhorse)

·       Fate makes a comeback for Animal Kingdome trainer (Courier Journal)

·       Victory in Kentucky Derby meant to be for jockey (Courier Journal)

·       Albarado unhappy to be taken off winner (Courier Journal)

·       Kentucky bred winner has an international lineage (Courier Journal)

·       Transcript: Post-Derby winner’s press conference (Churchill Downs)

·       Kentucky Derby losing jockey and trainer quotes (Churchill Downs)

·       Rosie Napravnik yearns for a return trip (Courier Journal)

·       Comma To The Top, Archarcharch exit Derby injured (Brisnet)

·       Pants on Fire will rest until Haskell after bleeding in Kentucky Derby (DRF)

·       Derby Day handle increases, attendance a record (DRF)

·       Arlington trainer comes close with Nehro (Star-Telegram)


*It was reported that Comma To The Top sustained an ankle injury and Pants On Fire bled following the race

Master Of Hounds makes first training appearance, all eyes and ears on Friday Mo decision

Summary:

Master Of Hounds finally took his first steps on the Churchill track Thursday.  It was a very light effort that did not impress onlookers, however his appearance cannot be ignored.  Not only is he big, but he also has a compact yet powerful stride.  Uncle Mo put in a strong gallop, although the chances of him entering the Derby gate seem to diminish by the minute. A decision will be announced most likely early Friday.  Other horses that impressed Thursday morning were Mucho Macho Man (looking better each day), Shackleford (as always), Archx3 (I’m’ still not over the #1 draw), Animal Kingdom (another improver), and Twinspired (not a typo).  The recent reports on Soldat have been glowing, but I saw a horse that was fighting the bit and did not look comfortable// Robby Albarado, who suffered facial injuries from a Wednesday spill, will still be aboard Animal Kingdom in the Derby as expected// DRF does a rundown of where future wagers currently stand.  Decisive Moment leads the way with the best value at 186-1 from pool 1.  Dialed In, the favorite in the Derby, closed at 11-1 in one future pool, and Archarcharch was as high 50-1.  Don’t think futures are a smart bet, however, only 3 out of 110 horses from the Wynn Future Book in September actually made the Derby field// As we have seen during Derby week, the number of articles grows by the day.  Friday and Saturday CTD blog posts will be shorter due to the fact we’ll be at the races.  Be sure to still check out the site for our final Derby picks and wagers along with a unique new handicapping formula// more…

Final day of key Kentucky Derby workouts, media spotlight intensifies

Summary:

Derby week can be hectic and nerve-racking for thoroughbred enthusiasts and handicappers, mostly due to an overabundance of information and opinion.  The Churchill Downs backside is crammed with reporters, horseman, bettors, and fans all looking for angles and stones unturned, which often leads to widely varying conclusions.  Case-in-point is Monday’s workout of Santa Anita Derby winner Midnight Interlude, who ran a bullet over a sloppy track.  Highly regarded analysts such as Steve Haskin and Mike Welsch viewed the move as a major improvement from his last work, but the buzz faded quickly afterwards based on trainer Bob Baffert’s demeanor and honest comments on the colt’s greenness.  I’ll take the quotes at face value and move on: the work was good, the horse is just still growing up and needs something to run at// Brilliant Speed turned in what seemed to be the consensus best work.  Many knock this horse for his awful dirt performance (including me), but all indications are to take him seriously if the track ends up sloppy// Welsch thought Nehro’s workout was not as impressive as his previous based on how he switched leads several times and galloped out poorly. Trainer Steve Asmussen said they weren’t asking for much// Santiva, perhaps the least visually pleasing mover of the past week, turned in a better performance during Monday's official work// Watch Me Go had what Welsch called an “unusual” work but also the best gallop out of all timed workers// Among Monday’s gallopers and joggers, many view Soldat and Archarcharch as horses coming into the Derby better than any// Something to keep in mind with all of these training reports over the last two days is that all impressions are questionable if the track is dry Derby day// I realize the list of daily articles is longer each day, but be sure to check out Joe Drape’s New York Times piece on picking a winner, Gary West’s first morning at Churchill in 2011, and Kentucky Confidential's piece on emotional conformation profiles for Derby contenders.  There are also some good handicapping angles in the Pony Bologna and Zipse at the Derby blogs// more…

Archarcharch impresses in work// Decisive Moment so-so// Soldat ready to go

Summary:

Archarcharch was the star of the day for Friday April 29^th based on his lightning 5-furlong work. Mike Welsch claims the move was so good he now considers the colt to be among the top Kentucky Derby contenders// Decisive Moment did not fair as well.  Not only was the overall clocking mediocre, apparently he was switching leads several times down the stretch// Soldat put in his final work before the Derby in Florida.  There are no official clockers this time of year at Palm Meadows, but according to this trainer Kiaran McLaughlin Soldat worked a half in 49 and galloped out in 1.01:40.  McLaughlin was just short of exuberant// Mike Welsch commented that Santiva and Twice The Appeal did not leave a good impression during their gallops and jogs, while Uncle Mo continues to look strong.

As expected, Garret Gomez was given the mount on Master Of Hounds.  The rumor just last weekend was that Calvin Borel would get the job, but he apparently decided to go with a colt that was definite at the time in Twice The Appeal.  That decision caused a little drama between the connections of Twice The Appeal and his former jockey Santiago Reyes.  The LA Daily news reports Reyes’ agent was not pleased over the late announcement, not only because it’s the Derby, but also because they gave up six mounts at Hollywood thinking they would be in Louisville// more…

Borel gets Kentucky Derby mount, will pilot Twice The Appeal// Anthony’s Cross the latest bubble horse

Summary:

After a whirlwind day of major Kentucky Derby developments, Wednesday proved to be much calmer: there were no official workouts or defections from the top 20. However, several important decisions were still made, lead by the announcement that Calvin Borel secured a Derby mount. He will ride a longshot colt who was born May 10th, once raced in the claiming ranks, and made his way to Louisville via the Sunland Derby route.  No, they’re not allowing five-year-old Mine That Bird to run again in the Derby, Twice The Appeal will get the honor. It was also reported that Borel was recently offered the mount on Illinois Derby winner Watch Me Go but passed on the opportunity// Bob Baffert confirmed Victor Espinoza would stay on Midnight Interlude, despite first-call jock Martin Garcia losing his Derby mount due to The Factor’s defection.  Baffert said Espinoza’s timely use of the whip was reason to stay the course// Silver Medallion, the next in line for a Derby spot, was declared out which puts Anthony’s Cross on the bubble// Upcoming works include Dialed In Thursday, Decisive Moment Friday, and eight or nine moves for the weekend// The Derby weather forecast seemed to get some attention Wednesday.  As of now forecasters are predicting cool temperatures and rain, but of course that is all subject to change//Brad Free at the Daily Racing Form discusses the potential pace (or lack thereof) for the Derby. He claims with a tepid pace, the race could suit Midnight Interlude and Soldat// As expected, Larry Collmus was named as the race caller for the Triple Crown.

For a little detour from the daily news on horses, jockeys, owners and trainers check out Sarah Kelly’s “ABC’s” of the Derby in the Louisville Eccentric Observer.  It offers a realistic-- if not entirely flattering-- picture of what to expect if you happen to attend// more…

Jaycito latest off the list, Astrology still possible?// Churchill based contenders enjoy the mud// Pletcher feels good about Mo

Summary:

Jaycito is no longer being pointed to the Kentucky Derby.  The news is not a real shocker seeing as he has been battling a bruised foot and missed several planned prep races and workouts.  The Belmont Stakes could still be in the cards.  His absence allows Watch Me Go to enter the Derby scene with Shackleford on deck// Interestingly, Churchill Downs published an updated graded earnings list on their website Sunday that had Astrology back among the top 20.  It was quickly removed, but when CTD asked Director of Communications Darren Rogers for clarification, he responded Astrology was “unlikely, but let’s wait and see if Derby Fever hits”//

Another rainy Louisville morning didn’t stop two contenders from putting in official works.  Stay Thirsty blazed a bullet five panels in a minute flat with Calvin Borel aboard.  While it was stated publicly that Borel was testing the colt for his rail-skimming ability, there were also rumors he has the inside track to run European invader Master Of Hounds in the Derby. Mucho Macho Man took an extended seven furlongs, but wasn’t pressed too much.  Trainer Kathy Ritvo says it was merely a maintenance move.  He seemed to enjoy the messy track while kicking his front legs very high. Midnight Interlude was also swishing around and seemed to be playing more than working.  He needed some encouragement to leave the track as he was having too much fun.  Decisive Moment continues to get low whisper praise as he glides over the wet conditions effortlessly// Jennie Rees was able to get some newsworthy quotes from Todd Pletcher.  He sounds very positive on Uncle Mo’s recovery from a GI tract infection// more…

Borel: Hired Derby gun// Twice The Appeal not appealing in work

Summary:

Calvin Borel is scheduled to work Stay Thirsty on Sunday.  Trainer Todd Pletcher emphasized that he is not definite for the Derby mount, but it opens the door for the possibility of the same team repeating last year’s Derby scenario, when Borel guided “Todd Squad” B-lister Super Saver to a muddy win.  Apparently, Ramon Dominguez who has ridden the colt before and currently does not have a guaranteed Derby mount, decided to look elsewhere so Borel may very well be in the driver’s seat.  What makes the situation even more intriguing is the three-time Derby winner is not even a third call jockey for Pletcher any other time of the year// Sunland Derby winner Twice The Appeal worked a so-so 6 furlongs at Churchill// Jeremy Plonk warns to discount the Bluegrass Stakes at your own peril. He points out last year’s runners had money finishes in all three Triple Crown races// Nice background story on Jon Court’s long journey to ride in the Derby// Uncle Mo’s first official serious work since the Wood Memorial is scheduled for Tuesday// Speedster Flashpoint will skip the Derby Trial and point to the Preakness// more…

Archarcharch stuns again// Brilliant Speed noses out Twinspired in Blue Grass

Summary:

We’ve read this script before:  Highly touted favorite disappoints in key Kentucky Derby prep.  The latest chapter was written by The Factor, who was absolutely no factor in the Arkansas Derby.  As we’ve also read before, there was an excuse.  Add flipped palate to a long list that includes GI tract infections, quarter grabs, lost shoes, and broken teeth.  Whether it actually happened-- which would cause difficulty in breathing-- or not is unclear.  What is clear is that The Factor was simply out-jumped leaving the gate and never comfortable trailing horses.  The winner, Archarcharch deserves all praise that can be given, which will probably not be much considering many will say he benefitted again from closing off a cooked pace.  This horse is the only Derby contender who has won two graded preps going two turns in 2011 and the only to finish in the money in three stakes this year.  2^nd place finisher Nehro was almost equally impressive barreling down the stretch and continuing on past the winner after the wire.  If these guys can navigate their way through a 20-horse field on May 7 look out.

The Blue Grass Stakes assumed its usual role of big priced ho hum winner.  Brilliant Speed just out-nosed Twinspired at the wire to guarantee a spot in the Kentucky Derby gate.  Twinspired could join him with a few other defections.  Both horses have raced on true dirt just three times and were beaten by a combined 52 lengths, which begs a debate on changing the criteria of qualifying for the Derby.  As respectable as the Blue Grass Stakes was (produced more Derby winners than any other race), its relevance since the change to Polytrack is lower than a maiden race at Gulfstream.

Mucho Macho Man worked a long seven furlongs in Florida.  All reports were positive and he is on his way to Louisville for a Sunday arrival//more…     

Kentucky Derby attention turns to early odds and big upcoming preps

The Factor arrives at Oaklawn (Photo: Oaklawn Park)

Summary:

I made a decision today to discontinue posting links to analysis and opinion on Uncle Mo’s performance in the Wood (aside from Steve Haskin’s weekly blog).  With an apparent clean bill of health and all signs pointing to him running next in the Kentucky Derby, it’s time to move on to other trail doings for the time being.  Not only are we coming up to the final weekend of major prep races, but Churchill Downs also decided to release odds this afternoon for the Kentucky Derby if it was held today.  The purpose apparently was to merely start a conversation, and within an hour it was clear mission was accomplished.  Opinions were as varied as they were for last Saturday’s prep results. Among them were that no horse in the wide-open crop should be lower than 5-1, Uncle Mo’s odds at 4-1 were way off line, and oddsmaker Mike Battaglia had generally lost his mind. I’ve pasted his odds below.

The Factor, a possible favorite in the Kentucky Derby, returned to the Oaklawn grounds today.  Two of his competitors for the Arkansas Derby, J W Blue and Archarcharch put in their final works// With the torrential downpour occurring in and around Kentucky, Blue Grass Stakes probable Swift Warrior had his scheduled work delayed until Wednesday// Dialed In, another potential favorite for the Derby, had his first work since winning the Florida Derby.  Nick Zito seemed pleased and stated the colt will only have one more serious work for the Derby, which is unorthodox, but a formula that has proven to be effective// It sounds like Astrology may be pointed to the Preakness instead of the Derby due to falling behind in training and racing// more…


Kentucky Derby odds (if held today)
The Factor (7-2); Dialed In (4-1); Uncle Mo (4-1); Soldat (10-1); Toby’s Corner (10-1); Midnight Interlude (12-1); Mucho Macho Man (12-1); Animal Kingdom (15-1); Pants On Fire (15-1); Santiva (20-1); Shackleford (20-1); Comma to the Top (30-1); Jaycito (30-1); Stay Thirsty (30-1); Astrology (50-1); Decisive Moment (50-1); J P’s Gusto (50-1); Master of Hounds (50-1); Twice the Appeal (50-1);and Watch Me Go (50-1)- Mike Battaglia

Day of upsets, where does this leave us?

Summary:

Tobys Corner wins Wood Memorial, Photo: Horsephotos.com

It was not a question of if he would win, but by how much and in what manner.  However, as the Wood Memorial and horseracing in general have proven before, nothing is a sure bet. The once guaranteed favorite for the Kentucky Derby, Uncle Mo, ended up looking as average as the rest of the 2011 three-year-old stakes crop. Setting honest fractions, not responding to the whip, and ultimately tiring to third you could probably hear a pin drop at Aqueduct after the race. Apparently, Uncle Mo did grab a quarter (stepped on himself and tore off a piece of tissue), but tests and time will tell just how much of an excuse it was.  The winner, Toby’s Corner, was the second choice and able to capture the same race his sire Bellamy Road dominated six years ago.  Wearing blinkers, he was shuffled back in the beginning but managed to relax behind horses on the rail.  Down the stretch, he swung wide and picked off Mo and eventual second place finisher Arthur’s Tale.  He will move onto Louisville as well as Arthur’s Tale, the latter only if $200K will be good enough to qualify. As for Uncle Mo, Todd Pletcher remained non-committal for the Derby and said he needs to see how the colt trains at Churchill before making a decision.  Many will question Pletcher’s 2011 conditioning and race strategy for Uncle Mo, but I’m thinking it may have set him up nicely for the big one.

Midnight Interlude(Left), Photo: Horsephotos.com

Midnight Interlude advanced from maiden winner to Grade 1 winner in one step by nipping Comma To The Top in the Santa Anita Derby.  He was able to overcome traffic issues and greenness in the stretch to stamp himself a legitimate threat to the now wide-open Kentucky Derby. If Jaycito still remains pointed to the Derby, Bob Baffert could have three Kentucky Derby entries.  Comma To The Top, who set quick fractions and only lost by a head, ran perhaps the gutsiest performance but remains unlikely for the Derby. Mr. Commons, another first-time stakes entrant took 3rd but will probably fall short of the Derby gate.

Joe Vann won the lower regarded Illinois Derby.  Its relevance to the Kentucky Derby is probably negligible as he only picked up $180K and is not nominated for the Triple Crown// 5 big workouts by Arkansas Derby contenders Alternation, Brethren, Truman’s Commander, Dance City, and J P’s Gusto.  Alternation, who flipped in the gate for the Rebel has been progressing faster than his trainer Donnie Von Hemel anticipated.  He now seems likely to run in Oaklawn’s premier race along with the others// Mucho Macho Man fired a bullet at Gulfstream and will ship to Churchill next Sunday// Santiva and Willcox Inn took their final workouts ahead of next Saturday’s Blue Grass Stakes// more…

Twice The Appeal caps unappealing weekend// Big Guns Uncle Mo and Soldat work

Summary:

Long shot Twice The Appeal crawled home in 40 seconds in the final 3 furlongs to win the Sunland Derby. He and Astrology earned enough to book a trip to Louisville, but like other winners from this weekend don’t figure to have many backers at the betting window// Many important workouts today:  Early Kentucky Derby favorite Uncle Mo worked in company and took some dirt in the face.  Todd Pletcher was pleased with his response, but not thrilled with the work by his stablemate Stay Thirsty.  He seemed “intimidated” by struggling to never catch his older workmate. Pletcher is considering blinkers for the Florida Derby.  Soldat, another probable for the Florida Derby, impressed his trainer Kiaran McLaughlin in the manner he ran his 5 panels// The winners from yesterday’s Louisiana Derby and Spiral Stakes will race next in the Kentucky Derby. Pants On Fire, the winner in the Bayou, earned a 94 Beyer fig while Animal Kingdom gets a 92 from the Spiral.  2^nd and 3^rd place Nehro and Mucho Macho Man in Louisiana came out well and should go to the Derby.  Decisive Moment also earns a spot in the Derby gate with his second place money at Turfway// Mike Watchmaker from The Daily Racing Form sums up the weekend pretty nicely in the last article below// more…

3 big preps, 0 to get excited about: Pants On Fire and Animal Kingdom guaranteed for Derby gate and long odds// Sweet Ducky disappoints

Summary:

While the finish of the Louisiana Derby was exciting, the race as a whole was not impressive.  Pants On Fire tracked average fractions and fought on to win. Mucho Macho Man, who apparently lost a shoe, was in a perfect spot to pounce.  Elite Alex, who most everyone thinks ran the best race by closing like a freight train, probably won’t have the earnings to make the Derby gate unless his connections decide to squeeze him into a late prep. The most noteworthy accomplishment came from the winning jockey, Rosie Napravnik, who was the first woman jockey to win the Louisiana Derby in 98 years and could be the first to win the big one.  Second place Nehro is headed for the Arkansas Derby// In the interesting undercard allowance, much-hyped Bind couldn’t hold off Prime Cut.  The final time was less than a quarter second off the track record// As far as chasing the Derby goes, the lone contender in the UAE Derby, Sweet Ducky finished second-to-last.  No word from his trainer, but it looks like a trip back to the States will be ruled out// Animal Kingdom took the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes.  The son of Leroidesanimaux is probably another not to get too excited about for May 7^th.  He seems best suited for turf/poly over true dirt.  Favorite Positive Response had no response by finishing 8^th// Swift Warrior wins the undercard Rushaway Stakes at Turfway. He’s now headed for the Bluegrass Stakes. All this poly, all this mediocrity… the Florida Derby can’t come soon enough.

Rag numbers suggest Mucho not strong favorite// Riveting Reason off trail// King Congie scratched from Spiral

Summary:

According to Ragozin numbers, Mucho Macho Man has no value as the favorite in the Louisiana Derby.  Elite Alex and even longshots Le Mans, Majestic Harbor, and Populist Politics could be players in the exotics// John Asher from Churchill wonders why Calvin Borel only has one possible contender (Elite Alex) for the Derby, seeing as he’s won 3 of the last 4 runnings// Great article below from the Sacramento Bee on Positive Response’s jockey Julien Couton and his journey from France. His biggest challenge in the Spiral Stakes, King Congie, is a scratch// Rumblings of Sweet Ducky still being on the trail are getting louder.  His trainer says if he finishes in the top 3 in Dubai tomorrow, Derby could be next// Riveting Reason is latest contender that will not make the Derby, out with a hoof injury// Although Rick Dutrow thinks Flashpoint should stay sprinting, he hints that the owners may insist on stretching him out in the Florida Derby.  Derby fever... tough to get rid of…

Dialed In quashes rumors with bullet move// Mucho handicappers don’t like Macho Man in La Derby//

Summary:

Some were concerned with the status of Holy Bull winner Dialed In based on the fact he had not returned to the workout tab since his last allowance race.  Those fears should be eased with his big bullet move at Palm Meadows this morning.  Nick Zito was about as exuberant as he can be and claimed Dialed In came home in a blistering 11.4 seconds// If you run through some of the handicapping articles and videos below for the Louisiana Derby, you’ll see there are several Mucho Macho Man doubters.  Despite being a heavy favorite, handicappers tend to like Nacho Business, Machen, Elite Alex and Wilkinson instead.  Although I’ve been leaning towards Elite Alex, Dick Downey notes he missed a workout two back for reasons unknown// More news and notes on the upcoming Vinery Spiral Stakes, Sunland Derby, and UAE Derby// Elliot Walden at Winstar suggested Cal Nation will take the Bernardini route to the Preakness and revealed Brethren could go to the Santa Anita Derby, although the Arkansas Derby is more likely// more…

Positive Response needs just that in Spiral Stakes// Astrology’s 2011 debut begins in the outside post with possible jet-lagged jockey?

Summary:

Sunland Derby entries closed today with 11.  Astrology’s much anticipated 2011 debut got that much harder with a far outside post. I noticed Julien Leparoux has the mount. Are there any concerns with coming back from racing in Dubai the day before?// 12 horses are lined up for the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes at Turfway.  Positive Response is installed as the 3-1 favorite based on his romp in the Battaglia Stakes.  None of the horses in the field qualify for the Derby…yet.  Win and they’re in with $300,000 in graded earnings// While Populist Politics is a definite scratch from the Louisiana Derby, the rumor of Pants On Fire joining him are untrue according to his trainer// more…

Mucho Macho Man grabs Tuesday headlines// Asmussen high on Maclean’s Music// The Factor in same breath as Big Brown, Fusaichi Pegasus?

Summary:

Today was Mucho Macho Man’s day in the press. From appearing lifeless at birth, owners who paid as little as $800 a share, and a trainer who is living a second life on a heart transplant, it’s a guarantee there will be a signature NBC segment on Derby Day// In other Louisiana Derby news, long shot Populist Politics was scratched.  Elite Alex’s trainer Tim Ritchey says the million dollar purse and long stretch were reasons to enter.  He’s currently on the outside looking in to the Derby// Several articles today on Maclean’s Music, the most recent blistering maiden winner at Santa Anita I touched on yesterday.  Trainer Steve Asmussen didn’t rule anything out, but due to timing he may have to point for the Preakness.  The Bloodhorse story has several other good tidbits from Asmussen; Astrology, scheduled to race Sunday in the Sunland Derby, had a delayed start due to illness and he was also not pleased with Garret Gomez’s trip aboard Albergatti in the San Felipe (neither was my wager)// Mike Shutty draws comparisons between The Factor’s performance on Saturday and the second-to-last prep races of Derby winners Big Brown and Fusaichi Pegasus// more…

The Factor goes the distance// Rouge Romance off the Trail// Dance city noses out hyped stablemate…

Summary:

The Factor answered the two turn question in the Rebel Stakes today. Now the question will be added distance, but let’s give credit where credit is due.  You can’t deny he was impressive by setting honest fractions, feeling a little breath from Saratoga Red, and pulling away to win by over 6 lengths against a competitive field.  He’s legitimate (although some critics below will note his final fractions).  On the not-so-impressive side we had a no show from Sway Away.  As his trainer insisted, he had a bad trip, but serious Derby horses need to settle at some point and he never looked comfortable. Also disappointing was the scary scratch of Alternation. Luckily, it sounds like everything is ok, but I was looking forward to his move up// Bandbox wins easily in the Private Terms Stakes at Laurel.  Trainer Rodney Jenkins says he could very well be pointed to the Preakness (no Derby)// Rogue Romance is the latest casualty on the Derby trail. He’s out with a fractured foot// Dance City held off his much-hyped stablemate Cal Nation in an allowance at Gulfstream.  What will Pletcher do with them next?// Loads of works today including Louisiana Derby contenders Left and Mucho Macho Man. Macho Man also gets a nice background article from the Atlanta Journal Constitution// more…

Gomez’s agent wouldn’t trade places with The Factor// Astrology going to Sunland Derby// Louisiana Derby coming up light...

Summary:

Garret Gomez’s colorful agent Ron Anderson makes some bold statements on Sway Away vs. The Factor in the upcoming Rebel Stakes. He says The Factor “is not going to outrun” him, which I actually tend to agree.  The Daily Racing Form claims Sway Away could be on the pace based on his June 2010 maiden, which doesn’t really hold up considering he’s been off of it his last two races// Speaking of the Rebel, it’s worth noting Dreaminforthewin has been battling a quarter crack// We have what seems to be a definite destination for Astrology: The Sunland Derby March 26. That leaves only 3 weeks between his next possible prep and then another 4 weeks for the Derby.  Many think that’s too tight, especially coming off a long layoff// Gomez gets the mount on To Honor and Serve which makes sense considering Johnny Velazquez has Mo duties // Steve Crist says don’t worry about Uncle Mo’s low Beyer from the Timely Writer// Norman Asbjornson, 2^nd place in the Gotham, is headed to the Wood Memorial and gets a late Triple Crown nomination//For more in-depth reporting on the connections of Premier Pegasus be sure to check out the two part article from Stride Live// // More fallout on the sale of Sweet Ducky to controversial Chechan President.  The original owners are claiming they had no clue.

Stay Thirsty takes Gotham although some not impressed// Busy workout day//Another eye-opening maiden winner//Ungraded stakes articles and video//

Summary:

Stay Thirsty wins the Gotham. The TVG crew was harsh. NYRA handicapper Andy Serling was not impressed.  Not sure what everyone expected from a four month layoff, but I would consider a 3 ¼ length win over a sizzling stakes winner and some good up-and-comers a nice first step for 2011// Positive Response romps in the Battaglia// Sensational Slam takes the Caposella. Bay Shore next// Smoke It Right wins the Mountain Valley, Arkansas Derby likely// Sway Away headed to the Rebel// Many works today, including bullets by The Factor and Premier Pegasus.  All trainers seemed happy// Wilburn is the latest impressive maiden winner.  Time is not on his side though// Don’t forget- Dialed In to race tomorrow in the 4^th at Gulfstream at 2:25pm.

Stay Thirsty 9-5 favorite in Gotham. Astrology in, Uncle Brent out of Rebel. Mucho confirmed for Louisiana Derby. Any real interest in a Swale Stakes “Challenge”?

Summary:

Nine entries drawn for Gotham, including Stay Thirsty// Many future race decisions were made: Astrology to Rebel, Mucho Macho Man to Louisiana Derby, and maiden winner Albergatti to San Felipe// Uncle Brent has new trainer and will not go in Rebel// The most interesting story from today is the “Swale Challenge” idea from the owner of Flashpoint.  While a matchup with the Factor would be nice, I’m not sure that’s worth one million for Gulfstream.   We’re not talking about Zenyatta vs. Rachel.  Many general racing fans have probably never heard of these three year olds. Also, who is going to back either of those horses in the Derby coming off of two sprint preps and questions surrounding pedigree?