Final day of key Kentucky Derby workouts, media spotlight intensifies

Summary:

Derby week can be hectic and nerve-racking for thoroughbred enthusiasts and handicappers, mostly due to an overabundance of information and opinion.  The Churchill Downs backside is crammed with reporters, horseman, bettors, and fans all looking for angles and stones unturned, which often leads to widely varying conclusions.  Case-in-point is Monday’s workout of Santa Anita Derby winner Midnight Interlude, who ran a bullet over a sloppy track.  Highly regarded analysts such as Steve Haskin and Mike Welsch viewed the move as a major improvement from his last work, but the buzz faded quickly afterwards based on trainer Bob Baffert’s demeanor and honest comments on the colt’s greenness.  I’ll take the quotes at face value and move on: the work was good, the horse is just still growing up and needs something to run at// Brilliant Speed turned in what seemed to be the consensus best work.  Many knock this horse for his awful dirt performance (including me), but all indications are to take him seriously if the track ends up sloppy// Welsch thought Nehro’s workout was not as impressive as his previous based on how he switched leads several times and galloped out poorly. Trainer Steve Asmussen said they weren’t asking for much// Santiva, perhaps the least visually pleasing mover of the past week, turned in a better performance during Monday's official work// Watch Me Go had what Welsch called an “unusual” work but also the best gallop out of all timed workers// Among Monday’s gallopers and joggers, many view Soldat and Archarcharch as horses coming into the Derby better than any// Something to keep in mind with all of these training reports over the last two days is that all impressions are questionable if the track is dry Derby day// I realize the list of daily articles is longer each day, but be sure to check out Joe Drape’s New York Times piece on picking a winner, Gary West’s first morning at Churchill in 2011, and Kentucky Confidential's piece on emotional conformation profiles for Derby contenders.  There are also some good handicapping angles in the Pony Bologna and Zipse at the Derby blogs// more…

Kentucky Derby drama starts before dawn; Tuesday brings defections, major workouts, jockey decisions

Summary:

The Derby drama started early Tuesday-- 5:45 AM early.  Trainer Todd Pletcher decided to beat the rain and send out Uncle Mo nearly three hours prior to the scheduled Derby/Oaks training session. From that moment on, major developments affecting the Kentucky Derby field, pace scenario, and jockey assignments seemed to be announced by the minute. The Factor and J P’s Gusto were confirmed out of the Derby field (along with the expected defection of Astrology). That allows Shackleford and Twinspired to slide into the top 20.  It also helps Shackleford deal with two less potential front-runners.  Spots 21 and 22 are now Silver Medallion and Anthony’s Cross, with the latter booked for a flight to Churchill next Tuesday// Some believed Calvin Borel would be named to ride Stay Thirsty, but Ramon Dominguez was confirmed instead.  The rumor of Borel landing on Master Of Hounds continues to grow.  Derby winning jockey Mike Smith was named to ride new entrant Twinspired// As for the workouts, Pletcher was clearly thrilled with Uncle Mo’s five furlong drill.  Jockey Johnny Velazquez and DRF analyst Mike Welsch claimed the old Mo is back.  Welsch did comment he could have galloped out stronger, but admitted that was “nitpicking”.  Midnight Interlude worked a bullet six furlongs, but according to Welsch had some trouble catching up to his workmate.  Santiva, who worked four panels, pleased his trainer Eddie Kenneally but did not impress Welsch// Uncle Mo’s owner Mike Repole held a press conference today and offered strong words to the press on questions related to Uncle Mo and full disclosure// Tom Durkin, the voice of the Kentucky Derby the past 10 years decided to bow out of contract negatiations for this year’s call on NBC.  Rumors are that Larry Collmus, track announcer at Gulfstream Park and Monmouth Park will assume the duty// Although not Derby related, it is worth noting that during all of the excitement this morning at Churchill Downs there was also tragedy.  Gilded Gem, a workmate of Kentucky Oaks contender Plum Pretty, was fatally injured during the Derby/Oaks training session.  Trainer Bob Baffert, who recently withdrew two horses from the Derby field, had to deal with the biggest blow of them all// more…

Jaycito latest off the list, Astrology still possible?// Churchill based contenders enjoy the mud// Pletcher feels good about Mo

Summary:

Jaycito is no longer being pointed to the Kentucky Derby.  The news is not a real shocker seeing as he has been battling a bruised foot and missed several planned prep races and workouts.  The Belmont Stakes could still be in the cards.  His absence allows Watch Me Go to enter the Derby scene with Shackleford on deck// Interestingly, Churchill Downs published an updated graded earnings list on their website Sunday that had Astrology back among the top 20.  It was quickly removed, but when CTD asked Director of Communications Darren Rogers for clarification, he responded Astrology was “unlikely, but let’s wait and see if Derby Fever hits”//

Another rainy Louisville morning didn’t stop two contenders from putting in official works.  Stay Thirsty blazed a bullet five panels in a minute flat with Calvin Borel aboard.  While it was stated publicly that Borel was testing the colt for his rail-skimming ability, there were also rumors he has the inside track to run European invader Master Of Hounds in the Derby. Mucho Macho Man took an extended seven furlongs, but wasn’t pressed too much.  Trainer Kathy Ritvo says it was merely a maintenance move.  He seemed to enjoy the messy track while kicking his front legs very high. Midnight Interlude was also swishing around and seemed to be playing more than working.  He needed some encouragement to leave the track as he was having too much fun.  Decisive Moment continues to get low whisper praise as he glides over the wet conditions effortlessly// Jennie Rees was able to get some newsworthy quotes from Todd Pletcher.  He sounds very positive on Uncle Mo’s recovery from a GI tract infection// more…

Kentucky Derby: Eennie meenie miney Mo

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The national press is picking up on the parity in this year’s Derby.  An ESPN article goes so far as comparing it to a local dog race and betting your favorite numbers.  We get it, it's wide open// More maybes and probably nots today.  Comma To The Top and Watch Me Go, once thought to be out of the Derby picture, are now back in the mix.  The Factor was labeled as “probable” by trainer Bob Baffert and J P’s Gusto is still a possibility according to his owners.  Meanwhile, Jaycito is still not recovering well from his foot injury and doesn’t look likely for Saturday’s Lexington Stakes or the Derby.  With all of the uncertainty and possible defections, Anthony’s Cross, currently #25 will train in hopes of making the field.  While a bland 5^th place finish in his last race might not seem enticing, he has proven himself on the Churchill strip and evenly stacks up with most of the prospective field// Jason Shandler in his Bloodhorse Blog suggests not overlooking the turf and poly horses. I’m still going to do so seeing as they have proven to be inferior on dirt, even in maiden company// Todd Pletcher was in Louisville to monitor Uncle Mo’s morning gallop, in which we never really heard much about how he looked on the track and how he was actually doing.  Instead Pletcher gave more vague quotes about appetite issues (not necessarily with Uncle Mo) and the wait-and-see approach we’ll be hearing a lot about in the coming weeks// Winning Beyer speed figures from two Derby preps were increased today.  Brilliant Speed in the Blue Grass changed to 93 (from 89) and Midnight Interlude in the Santa Anita Derby is now 97 (from 95)// more…

Sizable fields for Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass// Two more Derby Trail withdrawals

Summary:

The Factor was a made a heavy 7-5 favorite in the Arkansas Derby, which drew 13.  Saturday’s most intriguing prep includes several looking to live up to their original hype (Elite Alex, Sway Away, Brethren) and others looking to move up quickly in their first tries in stakes company as Midnight Interlude did last Saturday (Alternation, Dance City)// A full field was drawn for the Blue Grass Stakes lead by Santiva at 3-1. While the race appears competitive on paper, Santiva is the only real contender who has been mentioned in the same breath as Derby, mostly due to the others specializing in turf or artificial surfaces.  The first place check of $450,000 would push forward whoever wins, regardless of their background.  In the four runnings of the Blue Grass on Polytrack, the shortest priced winner was 8-1, so it will be interesting to see if the favorite disappoints again. Swift Warrior was expected to be entered but was injured during his three furlong workout on Wednesday// The Kentucky Derby seems to still be a very likely spot for European runner Master Of Hounds, much to the dismay of those sitting just outside the top 20 in graded earnings// Arthur’s Tale, one of those who were on the cusp, was ruled out of The Run For The Roses due to an injury// more…

Day of upsets, where does this leave us?

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Tobys Corner wins Wood Memorial, Photo: Horsephotos.com

It was not a question of if he would win, but by how much and in what manner.  However, as the Wood Memorial and horseracing in general have proven before, nothing is a sure bet. The once guaranteed favorite for the Kentucky Derby, Uncle Mo, ended up looking as average as the rest of the 2011 three-year-old stakes crop. Setting honest fractions, not responding to the whip, and ultimately tiring to third you could probably hear a pin drop at Aqueduct after the race. Apparently, Uncle Mo did grab a quarter (stepped on himself and tore off a piece of tissue), but tests and time will tell just how much of an excuse it was.  The winner, Toby’s Corner, was the second choice and able to capture the same race his sire Bellamy Road dominated six years ago.  Wearing blinkers, he was shuffled back in the beginning but managed to relax behind horses on the rail.  Down the stretch, he swung wide and picked off Mo and eventual second place finisher Arthur’s Tale.  He will move onto Louisville as well as Arthur’s Tale, the latter only if $200K will be good enough to qualify. As for Uncle Mo, Todd Pletcher remained non-committal for the Derby and said he needs to see how the colt trains at Churchill before making a decision.  Many will question Pletcher’s 2011 conditioning and race strategy for Uncle Mo, but I’m thinking it may have set him up nicely for the big one.

Midnight Interlude(Left), Photo: Horsephotos.com

Midnight Interlude advanced from maiden winner to Grade 1 winner in one step by nipping Comma To The Top in the Santa Anita Derby.  He was able to overcome traffic issues and greenness in the stretch to stamp himself a legitimate threat to the now wide-open Kentucky Derby. If Jaycito still remains pointed to the Derby, Bob Baffert could have three Kentucky Derby entries.  Comma To The Top, who set quick fractions and only lost by a head, ran perhaps the gutsiest performance but remains unlikely for the Derby. Mr. Commons, another first-time stakes entrant took 3rd but will probably fall short of the Derby gate.

Joe Vann won the lower regarded Illinois Derby.  Its relevance to the Kentucky Derby is probably negligible as he only picked up $180K and is not nominated for the Triple Crown// 5 big workouts by Arkansas Derby contenders Alternation, Brethren, Truman’s Commander, Dance City, and J P’s Gusto.  Alternation, who flipped in the gate for the Rebel has been progressing faster than his trainer Donnie Von Hemel anticipated.  He now seems likely to run in Oaklawn’s premier race along with the others// Mucho Macho Man fired a bullet at Gulfstream and will ship to Churchill next Sunday// Santiva and Willcox Inn took their final workouts ahead of next Saturday’s Blue Grass Stakes// more…