Final day of key Kentucky Derby workouts, media spotlight intensifies

Summary:

Derby week can be hectic and nerve-racking for thoroughbred enthusiasts and handicappers, mostly due to an overabundance of information and opinion.  The Churchill Downs backside is crammed with reporters, horseman, bettors, and fans all looking for angles and stones unturned, which often leads to widely varying conclusions.  Case-in-point is Monday’s workout of Santa Anita Derby winner Midnight Interlude, who ran a bullet over a sloppy track.  Highly regarded analysts such as Steve Haskin and Mike Welsch viewed the move as a major improvement from his last work, but the buzz faded quickly afterwards based on trainer Bob Baffert’s demeanor and honest comments on the colt’s greenness.  I’ll take the quotes at face value and move on: the work was good, the horse is just still growing up and needs something to run at// Brilliant Speed turned in what seemed to be the consensus best work.  Many knock this horse for his awful dirt performance (including me), but all indications are to take him seriously if the track ends up sloppy// Welsch thought Nehro’s workout was not as impressive as his previous based on how he switched leads several times and galloped out poorly. Trainer Steve Asmussen said they weren’t asking for much// Santiva, perhaps the least visually pleasing mover of the past week, turned in a better performance during Monday's official work// Watch Me Go had what Welsch called an “unusual” work but also the best gallop out of all timed workers// Among Monday’s gallopers and joggers, many view Soldat and Archarcharch as horses coming into the Derby better than any// Something to keep in mind with all of these training reports over the last two days is that all impressions are questionable if the track is dry Derby day// I realize the list of daily articles is longer each day, but be sure to check out Joe Drape’s New York Times piece on picking a winner, Gary West’s first morning at Churchill in 2011, and Kentucky Confidential's piece on emotional conformation profiles for Derby contenders.  There are also some good handicapping angles in the Pony Bologna and Zipse at the Derby blogs// more…

Shackleford blistering in work// Animal Kingdom sharp// Twice The Appeal and Mucho Macho Man not ideal

Shackleford after his workout. CTD 4-30-11

Summary:

Today’s hectic Kentucky Derby workout tab at Churchill Downs included a little bit of everything, including a huge throng of marathoners running through the infield during the 8:30am session, somewhat simulating the atmosphere that is expected in a week.  You had a sizzling bullet (Shackleford), an immature work (Mucho Macho Man), an encouraging first time dirt move (Animal Kingdom), and a generally unimpressive effort (Twice The Appeal).  In-depth analysis below in the links, but I will make a few backside observations of my own.  Shackleford was an absolute standout and had quite a presence on the track.  His front action seemed a little high but he was inhaling the track with each stride.  You could hear the whip on Mucho Macho Man from two furlongs away, as he needed encouragement to start his work.  Mike Welsch at the Daily Racing Form claims Twice The Appeal galloped out well after his subpar work, yet along the backside I caught several missteps that appeared as though he was not taking hold of the track.  Animal Kingdom was quickly tracking his workmate and moving well, but did not leave quite the same favorable impression as others reported// Over at the Churchill Trackside training center Twinspired put in a work that was described as mere “maintenance” move// Todd Plecher held a small press conference outside of barn 34.  He indicated that Uncle Mo’s appetite continues to improve, and the old Mo seems to be back.  He was anxious to see his work Sunday to validate the feeling.  Pletcher also revealed he was seriously considering Calvin Borel for the mount on Stay Thirsty, but decided to stick with the familiar Ramon Dominguez// Machen, who was once a buzz horse along the Triple Crown trail proved that shorter distance is more in his wheelhouse by winning the Derby Trial Stakes Saturday// more…

Kentucky Derby drama starts before dawn; Tuesday brings defections, major workouts, jockey decisions

Summary:

The Derby drama started early Tuesday-- 5:45 AM early.  Trainer Todd Pletcher decided to beat the rain and send out Uncle Mo nearly three hours prior to the scheduled Derby/Oaks training session. From that moment on, major developments affecting the Kentucky Derby field, pace scenario, and jockey assignments seemed to be announced by the minute. The Factor and J P’s Gusto were confirmed out of the Derby field (along with the expected defection of Astrology). That allows Shackleford and Twinspired to slide into the top 20.  It also helps Shackleford deal with two less potential front-runners.  Spots 21 and 22 are now Silver Medallion and Anthony’s Cross, with the latter booked for a flight to Churchill next Tuesday// Some believed Calvin Borel would be named to ride Stay Thirsty, but Ramon Dominguez was confirmed instead.  The rumor of Borel landing on Master Of Hounds continues to grow.  Derby winning jockey Mike Smith was named to ride new entrant Twinspired// As for the workouts, Pletcher was clearly thrilled with Uncle Mo’s five furlong drill.  Jockey Johnny Velazquez and DRF analyst Mike Welsch claimed the old Mo is back.  Welsch did comment he could have galloped out stronger, but admitted that was “nitpicking”.  Midnight Interlude worked a bullet six furlongs, but according to Welsch had some trouble catching up to his workmate.  Santiva, who worked four panels, pleased his trainer Eddie Kenneally but did not impress Welsch// Uncle Mo’s owner Mike Repole held a press conference today and offered strong words to the press on questions related to Uncle Mo and full disclosure// Tom Durkin, the voice of the Kentucky Derby the past 10 years decided to bow out of contract negatiations for this year’s call on NBC.  Rumors are that Larry Collmus, track announcer at Gulfstream Park and Monmouth Park will assume the duty// Although not Derby related, it is worth noting that during all of the excitement this morning at Churchill Downs there was also tragedy.  Gilded Gem, a workmate of Kentucky Oaks contender Plum Pretty, was fatally injured during the Derby/Oaks training session.  Trainer Bob Baffert, who recently withdrew two horses from the Derby field, had to deal with the biggest blow of them all// more…

Borel: Hired Derby gun// Twice The Appeal not appealing in work

Summary:

Calvin Borel is scheduled to work Stay Thirsty on Sunday.  Trainer Todd Pletcher emphasized that he is not definite for the Derby mount, but it opens the door for the possibility of the same team repeating last year’s Derby scenario, when Borel guided “Todd Squad” B-lister Super Saver to a muddy win.  Apparently, Ramon Dominguez who has ridden the colt before and currently does not have a guaranteed Derby mount, decided to look elsewhere so Borel may very well be in the driver’s seat.  What makes the situation even more intriguing is the three-time Derby winner is not even a third call jockey for Pletcher any other time of the year// Sunland Derby winner Twice The Appeal worked a so-so 6 furlongs at Churchill// Jeremy Plonk warns to discount the Bluegrass Stakes at your own peril. He points out last year’s runners had money finishes in all three Triple Crown races// Nice background story on Jon Court’s long journey to ride in the Derby// Uncle Mo’s first official serious work since the Wood Memorial is scheduled for Tuesday// Speedster Flashpoint will skip the Derby Trial and point to the Preakness// more…

Mo diagnosis, Mo questions// Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass offer hope for many

Summary:

Headlines and stories based on the same press release issued by the connections of Uncle Mo highlight the different ways writers interpret or choose to spin vague facts.  The only thing we know for sure is that he has a GI tract infection and has resumed training.  The fallout ranged from some believing it was a minor blip on the radar to others claiming he is doubtful for the Kentucky Derby.  I am neither a veterinarian nor a trainer, so do not know the severity of a GI tract infection, the average recovery timeframe, or how much it would affect the performance of a horse.  No article from today has adequately described the condition or the performance of other horses that raced with the same infection.  However, let’s say that it does affect the overall performance. Then we would be led to believe Uncle Mo’s showing in the Wood Memorial was extremely impressive considering it was a close third in a Grade 1 race. Moreover, if he were to recover quickly, then he should be back to his dominating ways. The probability that a horse can overcome such an ailment in a short period of time and win the most trying contest in all of horse racing remains to be seen. Also worth noting, a rumor of an undisclosed injury and subsequent surgery just after the Breeders Cup in November seemed to boil over today as well.  All of this drama presents too many unknowns.

More news today on the upcoming major Kentucky Derby preps. The Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes offer last chances for promising unlucky colts and well known jockeys trying to secure Derby mounts// Plus handicapper picks and more…

Sizable fields for Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass// Two more Derby Trail withdrawals

Summary:

The Factor was a made a heavy 7-5 favorite in the Arkansas Derby, which drew 13.  Saturday’s most intriguing prep includes several looking to live up to their original hype (Elite Alex, Sway Away, Brethren) and others looking to move up quickly in their first tries in stakes company as Midnight Interlude did last Saturday (Alternation, Dance City)// A full field was drawn for the Blue Grass Stakes lead by Santiva at 3-1. While the race appears competitive on paper, Santiva is the only real contender who has been mentioned in the same breath as Derby, mostly due to the others specializing in turf or artificial surfaces.  The first place check of $450,000 would push forward whoever wins, regardless of their background.  In the four runnings of the Blue Grass on Polytrack, the shortest priced winner was 8-1, so it will be interesting to see if the favorite disappoints again. Swift Warrior was expected to be entered but was injured during his three furlong workout on Wednesday// The Kentucky Derby seems to still be a very likely spot for European runner Master Of Hounds, much to the dismay of those sitting just outside the top 20 in graded earnings// Arthur’s Tale, one of those who were on the cusp, was ruled out of The Run For The Roses due to an injury// more…

Arkansas Derby could get 13// Blue Grass loses 1// Mo opinions on Wood

Summary:

The latest official graded earnings list was released today.  As expected, Midnight Interlude and Toby’s Corner are guaranteed-in-the-gate newcomers while a slew of others hover around the 20^th and final spot hoping for either more defections or no further surprises.  If colts other than The Factor, Santiva, or J P’s Gusto finish strong in the upcoming Arkansas Derby or Blue Grass Stakes, the impact could be felt by those in spots anywhere from 17 to 25.

As it stands now, the Arkansas Derby looks to have 13 starters, just one shy of a full gate//The Blue Grass lost a probable starter in Data Link who was injured during his final workout.  Two other contenders, King Congie and Wilkinson put in their final works// Jaycito, one of Baffert’s three Derby hopefuls and a scratch in Santa Anita Derby due to a sore foot, returned to the track and seems likely for the Lexington Stakes//

More analysis and opinion on the Wood Memorial.  As usual, Gary West offers an intriguing and thorough take// While Uncle Mo’s disappointment and Toby’s Corner’s triumph have been the main focus, overlooked second place finisher Arthur’s Tale finally grabbed some attention in articles and rankings today. There are even a few who feel he may be peaking in similar fashion to his sire Bernardini, but I don’t see it.  Arthur’s Tale has been racing since July and only began showing promise in December.  While his finish in the Wood was a big step forward, it in no way compares to Bernardini’s quick ascent to dominance and brilliance// Several good points from various blogs today, including A Saturday Afternoon Horse, who wonders if Victor Espinoza’s hard handling of Midnight Interlude in the Santa Anita Derby could cost him four weeks down the road in the Derby// more...

Day of upsets, where does this leave us?

Summary:

Tobys Corner wins Wood Memorial, Photo: Horsephotos.com

It was not a question of if he would win, but by how much and in what manner.  However, as the Wood Memorial and horseracing in general have proven before, nothing is a sure bet. The once guaranteed favorite for the Kentucky Derby, Uncle Mo, ended up looking as average as the rest of the 2011 three-year-old stakes crop. Setting honest fractions, not responding to the whip, and ultimately tiring to third you could probably hear a pin drop at Aqueduct after the race. Apparently, Uncle Mo did grab a quarter (stepped on himself and tore off a piece of tissue), but tests and time will tell just how much of an excuse it was.  The winner, Toby’s Corner, was the second choice and able to capture the same race his sire Bellamy Road dominated six years ago.  Wearing blinkers, he was shuffled back in the beginning but managed to relax behind horses on the rail.  Down the stretch, he swung wide and picked off Mo and eventual second place finisher Arthur’s Tale.  He will move onto Louisville as well as Arthur’s Tale, the latter only if $200K will be good enough to qualify. As for Uncle Mo, Todd Pletcher remained non-committal for the Derby and said he needs to see how the colt trains at Churchill before making a decision.  Many will question Pletcher’s 2011 conditioning and race strategy for Uncle Mo, but I’m thinking it may have set him up nicely for the big one.

Midnight Interlude(Left), Photo: Horsephotos.com

Midnight Interlude advanced from maiden winner to Grade 1 winner in one step by nipping Comma To The Top in the Santa Anita Derby.  He was able to overcome traffic issues and greenness in the stretch to stamp himself a legitimate threat to the now wide-open Kentucky Derby. If Jaycito still remains pointed to the Derby, Bob Baffert could have three Kentucky Derby entries.  Comma To The Top, who set quick fractions and only lost by a head, ran perhaps the gutsiest performance but remains unlikely for the Derby. Mr. Commons, another first-time stakes entrant took 3rd but will probably fall short of the Derby gate.

Joe Vann won the lower regarded Illinois Derby.  Its relevance to the Kentucky Derby is probably negligible as he only picked up $180K and is not nominated for the Triple Crown// 5 big workouts by Arkansas Derby contenders Alternation, Brethren, Truman’s Commander, Dance City, and J P’s Gusto.  Alternation, who flipped in the gate for the Rebel has been progressing faster than his trainer Donnie Von Hemel anticipated.  He now seems likely to run in Oaklawn’s premier race along with the others// Mucho Macho Man fired a bullet at Gulfstream and will ship to Churchill next Sunday// Santiva and Willcox Inn took their final workouts ahead of next Saturday’s Blue Grass Stakes// more…

Uncle Mo faces flight delay, possible wet track in Wood// Astrology crawls in work// Dosage index explained and debated

Summary:

More notable than Uncle Mo’s travel hiccup Tuesday is that storms are forecast again for Saturday, which would force the early Kentucky Derby favorite to run on his first wet track.  It may prove telling as the Derby seems to always have a 50/50 chance of mud// You may or may not know much about the dosage index, but it’s perceived importance in measuring Derby potential in a horse seems to diminish more each year.  Nonetheless, Scott Jagow, a student at the University of Louisville Equine program, does a fine job explaining how the number is derived// Astrology, who cracked the CTD Top 5, worked a slow 4 furlongs in 51:80.  Silver Medallion, an anticipated starter in Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby worked more than 3 seconds faster in the same breezing fashion. While that race will be his first on dirt, he apparently has been responding well to it in the morning//more…

Watch Me Go 'all in'// Sweet Ducky Dubai bound//Mark Cuban talks Derby// Next race plans set for many// Reprized Halo wins OBS// Busy work tab highlighted by bullet from To Honor and Serve

Summary:

Watch Me Go winning Tampa Bay Derby      horsephotos.com

Loads of new Kentucky Derby contender rankings today.  For a guy that sold his company to Yahoo for over 5 billion it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Mark Cuban has Soldat at the top of his list.  However it’s surprising anyone has Mo as low as 4// The Florida Derby lost a serious contender in Sweet Ducky due to being sold to an unknown buyer. He’s headed to Dubai. Tampa Bay Derby winner Watch Me Go, who was nominated to the Triple Crown Sunday for $6,000, may fill the void// I touched on some Beyer numbers yesterday and today we have the BRIS speed ratings: 95 and 100 for Uncle Mo and Premier Pegasus respectively// Pletcher says he’s still leaning towards the Wood for Uncle Mo’s next start, but left the door open for the Florida Derby// The Santa Anita Derby will probably get the top 3 finishers from the San Felipe, although there is a slight possibility Premier Pegasus could go elsewhere// Brethren will go in the Arkansas Derby// Silver Medallion is most likely going to the Louisiana Derby//  Another busy workout day.  To Honor and Serve fires a bullet on the deep Payson surface, while 2 work for the Rebel// Reprized Halo wins the always odd OBS Championship. Noticed he finished last in his last allowance with Dialed In. No indications of heading to the real trail…yet.

Uncle Mo gets 89 Beyer from Saturday's work in company// Premier Pegasus wakes up the West// Tampa Bay stunner and bad ride// Future Pool closes with Uncle Mo favored over the field

Uncle Mo winning The Timely Writer 3/12/11                                                                                                     Horsephotos.com

Summary:

Sorry for the missed feed yesterday. We’ll make this a double// Uncle Mo gets a low 89 Beyer from his workout in The Timely Writer Stakes.  Probably not too concerning see as he was never asked.  Looks like The Wood is still the next target, despite some rumblings of a switch to the Florida Derby// Premier Pegasus put in the performance of the day yesterday.  He earned a 96 Beyer.  Some will analyze the also-rans and make improvement cases for Jaycito and Bench Points, but they were nowhere close and benefitted from the same pace scenario// For the Tampa Bay Derby, I keep thinking of Brethren’s bad ride more than anything else.  Dominguez admits it (kind of)// Mystery surrounds Gourmet Dinner moving his barn to Ocala// Tons of works the past 2 days, all outlined below. The most interesting has to be The Factor going further than he’s ever gone// Future Wager Pool #2 closed with Mo favored over the field.   “The Field” does include Premier Pegasus// You’ll notice photographs will pop up on the site from time to time. Those are made possible by horsephotos.com so please check their site out for race photos and memorabilia. Links will always be on the right column.

Stay Thirsty 9-5 favorite in Gotham. Astrology in, Uncle Brent out of Rebel. Mucho confirmed for Louisiana Derby. Any real interest in a Swale Stakes “Challenge”?

Summary:

Nine entries drawn for Gotham, including Stay Thirsty// Many future race decisions were made: Astrology to Rebel, Mucho Macho Man to Louisiana Derby, and maiden winner Albergatti to San Felipe// Uncle Brent has new trainer and will not go in Rebel// The most interesting story from today is the “Swale Challenge” idea from the owner of Flashpoint.  While a matchup with the Factor would be nice, I’m not sure that’s worth one million for Gulfstream.   We’re not talking about Zenyatta vs. Rachel.  Many general racing fans have probably never heard of these three year olds. Also, who is going to back either of those horses in the Derby coming off of two sprint preps and questions surrounding pedigree?

Derby could have International flavor, Mo and the field drop in futures, The Factor and others will answer questions soon

Summary:

The Derby may get a French runner. Other international runners a possibility//Tim Richey surprised Elite Alex overlooked in futures// Speaking of futures, Uncle Mo is down to 2-1 and “all others” even.  That’s causing some nice odds on others, especially Stay Thirsty (69-1)// Plonk makes a good point on Dutrow// Lots of video today// What’s most exciting for the upcoming weekend is that questions will be answered.  Are The Factor and Machen for real? Will Justin Phillip return to form with blinkers off?

Rogue Romance morning line favorite- will it stick? Tapizar out, Jaycito runs the San Vicente early

Summary:

If you read only one article from today, please check out Matt Gardner’s post on the differences in speed figures for Derby preps. Interesting differences and good questions raised on Beyers// Rogue Romance is the favorite in the Risen Star.  Maybe that holds, but something tells me Machen will not stay at 6-1// Jaycito puts in a strong 7 furlong move.  He’ll have to do it all over again Sunday// Todd Jacobs makes some logical points on Derby Future betting in Vegas- stay away from favorites and book the big odds horses before their preps.  Good strategies, but not sure where he’s coming from on betting Leave of Absence- just because he has nowhere to go but up?// Tapizar is off the trail// More ink for J P’s Gusto//