Toby’s Corner out, Derby Kitten in// Archarcharch gets unintentional official work// Kentucky Derby draw nears

Summary:

Toby’s Corner marks the 69^th promising horse off the Derby Trail, according to the respected and mysterious @DerbyContenders account on Twitter. He came up lame in his left hind leg after Sunday’s work in Maryland.  Derby Kitten takes spot #20 with Sway Away waiting in the wings. Javier Castellano gets the mount// No serious workouts were scheduled today, but the clocker decided to record Archarcharch’s gallop as an official move.  Everyone was surprised, including his trainer “Jinks” Fires. The half mile time was a slow 52 flat, but considering he was just coming off a bullet move from Friday and not really supposed to work in the first place, the gallop (or whatever it was) should help him stay fit for the upcoming mile and a quarter test// Recent reports on Uncle Mo seemed to suggest the probability of a defection from the Derby was fading with each day, but Tuesday brought more uncertainty as owner Mike Repole indicated he could still scratch as late as Saturday afternoon// Among today’s gallopers, Mike Welch highlights Mucho Macho Man, Soldat, and Shackleford who all continue to thrive// Tomorrow is the big draw which will be televised on Versus starting at 4pm// more... 

Final day of key Kentucky Derby workouts, media spotlight intensifies

Summary:

Derby week can be hectic and nerve-racking for thoroughbred enthusiasts and handicappers, mostly due to an overabundance of information and opinion.  The Churchill Downs backside is crammed with reporters, horseman, bettors, and fans all looking for angles and stones unturned, which often leads to widely varying conclusions.  Case-in-point is Monday’s workout of Santa Anita Derby winner Midnight Interlude, who ran a bullet over a sloppy track.  Highly regarded analysts such as Steve Haskin and Mike Welsch viewed the move as a major improvement from his last work, but the buzz faded quickly afterwards based on trainer Bob Baffert’s demeanor and honest comments on the colt’s greenness.  I’ll take the quotes at face value and move on: the work was good, the horse is just still growing up and needs something to run at// Brilliant Speed turned in what seemed to be the consensus best work.  Many knock this horse for his awful dirt performance (including me), but all indications are to take him seriously if the track ends up sloppy// Welsch thought Nehro’s workout was not as impressive as his previous based on how he switched leads several times and galloped out poorly. Trainer Steve Asmussen said they weren’t asking for much// Santiva, perhaps the least visually pleasing mover of the past week, turned in a better performance during Monday's official work// Watch Me Go had what Welsch called an “unusual” work but also the best gallop out of all timed workers// Among Monday’s gallopers and joggers, many view Soldat and Archarcharch as horses coming into the Derby better than any// Something to keep in mind with all of these training reports over the last two days is that all impressions are questionable if the track is dry Derby day// I realize the list of daily articles is longer each day, but be sure to check out Joe Drape’s New York Times piece on picking a winner, Gary West’s first morning at Churchill in 2011, and Kentucky Confidential's piece on emotional conformation profiles for Derby contenders.  There are also some good handicapping angles in the Pony Bologna and Zipse at the Derby blogs// more…

5 major Kentucky Derby workouts// Bejarano gets last remaining mount

Uncle Mo before his workout 5-1-11 CTD

Summary:

Of the five key Kentucky Derby workouts Sunday, the obvious headline was Uncle Mo, who worked in company with stablemate Stay Thirsty.  Reports were a mixed bag.  The connections were very pleased and Mike Welsch from the Daily Racing Form commented both horses seem to be doing “extremely well” based on how they completed their efforts without much urging, especially Stay Thirsty.  Other analysts and onlookers were not too impressed and noted Mo failed to pass his rival at any point.  For what it’s worth, I was able to see both exit the track and they seemed hardly winded// Pants On Fire, with Rosie Napravnik up, worked a half-mile in a quick 47:80.  Welsch says the move was a big improvement from his prior move, although the gallop out was not as good as the Pletcher duo// Comma To The Top worked in California in what was described by rider Patrick Valenzuela as “perfect”// Toby’s Corner put in his final work before the Derby in Maryland and trainer Graham Motion couldn’t be happier with how he’s coming into the Derby with both of his charges, the other being Animal Kingdom// Rafael Bejarano was fortunate enough to get a late Derby mount on Watch Me Go, who was moving quite well in the mud Sunday// Bubble horses Anthony’s Cross and Mr. Commons have been officially ruled out of entering the Derby, which leaves Lexington Stakes winner Derby Kitten as next in line// Monday’s scheduled works include Watch Me Go, Nehro, Midnight Interlude, and possibly Santiva// I’ve built a Kentucky Derby contender page with links to pps, video, breeding info, and comments.  I’ll be updating the information as the week moves along// Happy Derby week! You can tell it has arrived by the number of article links below...

Kentucky Derby: Eennie meenie miney Mo

Summary:

The national press is picking up on the parity in this year’s Derby.  An ESPN article goes so far as comparing it to a local dog race and betting your favorite numbers.  We get it, it's wide open// More maybes and probably nots today.  Comma To The Top and Watch Me Go, once thought to be out of the Derby picture, are now back in the mix.  The Factor was labeled as “probable” by trainer Bob Baffert and J P’s Gusto is still a possibility according to his owners.  Meanwhile, Jaycito is still not recovering well from his foot injury and doesn’t look likely for Saturday’s Lexington Stakes or the Derby.  With all of the uncertainty and possible defections, Anthony’s Cross, currently #25 will train in hopes of making the field.  While a bland 5^th place finish in his last race might not seem enticing, he has proven himself on the Churchill strip and evenly stacks up with most of the prospective field// Jason Shandler in his Bloodhorse Blog suggests not overlooking the turf and poly horses. I’m still going to do so seeing as they have proven to be inferior on dirt, even in maiden company// Todd Pletcher was in Louisville to monitor Uncle Mo’s morning gallop, in which we never really heard much about how he looked on the track and how he was actually doing.  Instead Pletcher gave more vague quotes about appetite issues (not necessarily with Uncle Mo) and the wait-and-see approach we’ll be hearing a lot about in the coming weeks// Winning Beyer speed figures from two Derby preps were increased today.  Brilliant Speed in the Blue Grass changed to 93 (from 89) and Midnight Interlude in the Santa Anita Derby is now 97 (from 95)// more…

Kentucky Derby attention turns to early odds and big upcoming preps

The Factor arrives at Oaklawn (Photo: Oaklawn Park)

Summary:

I made a decision today to discontinue posting links to analysis and opinion on Uncle Mo’s performance in the Wood (aside from Steve Haskin’s weekly blog).  With an apparent clean bill of health and all signs pointing to him running next in the Kentucky Derby, it’s time to move on to other trail doings for the time being.  Not only are we coming up to the final weekend of major prep races, but Churchill Downs also decided to release odds this afternoon for the Kentucky Derby if it was held today.  The purpose apparently was to merely start a conversation, and within an hour it was clear mission was accomplished.  Opinions were as varied as they were for last Saturday’s prep results. Among them were that no horse in the wide-open crop should be lower than 5-1, Uncle Mo’s odds at 4-1 were way off line, and oddsmaker Mike Battaglia had generally lost his mind. I’ve pasted his odds below.

The Factor, a possible favorite in the Kentucky Derby, returned to the Oaklawn grounds today.  Two of his competitors for the Arkansas Derby, J W Blue and Archarcharch put in their final works// With the torrential downpour occurring in and around Kentucky, Blue Grass Stakes probable Swift Warrior had his scheduled work delayed until Wednesday// Dialed In, another potential favorite for the Derby, had his first work since winning the Florida Derby.  Nick Zito seemed pleased and stated the colt will only have one more serious work for the Derby, which is unorthodox, but a formula that has proven to be effective// It sounds like Astrology may be pointed to the Preakness instead of the Derby due to falling behind in training and racing// more…


Kentucky Derby odds (if held today)
The Factor (7-2); Dialed In (4-1); Uncle Mo (4-1); Soldat (10-1); Toby’s Corner (10-1); Midnight Interlude (12-1); Mucho Macho Man (12-1); Animal Kingdom (15-1); Pants On Fire (15-1); Santiva (20-1); Shackleford (20-1); Comma to the Top (30-1); Jaycito (30-1); Stay Thirsty (30-1); Astrology (50-1); Decisive Moment (50-1); J P’s Gusto (50-1); Master of Hounds (50-1); Twice the Appeal (50-1);and Watch Me Go (50-1)- Mike Battaglia

Arkansas Derby could get 13// Blue Grass loses 1// Mo opinions on Wood

Summary:

The latest official graded earnings list was released today.  As expected, Midnight Interlude and Toby’s Corner are guaranteed-in-the-gate newcomers while a slew of others hover around the 20^th and final spot hoping for either more defections or no further surprises.  If colts other than The Factor, Santiva, or J P’s Gusto finish strong in the upcoming Arkansas Derby or Blue Grass Stakes, the impact could be felt by those in spots anywhere from 17 to 25.

As it stands now, the Arkansas Derby looks to have 13 starters, just one shy of a full gate//The Blue Grass lost a probable starter in Data Link who was injured during his final workout.  Two other contenders, King Congie and Wilkinson put in their final works// Jaycito, one of Baffert’s three Derby hopefuls and a scratch in Santa Anita Derby due to a sore foot, returned to the track and seems likely for the Lexington Stakes//

More analysis and opinion on the Wood Memorial.  As usual, Gary West offers an intriguing and thorough take// While Uncle Mo’s disappointment and Toby’s Corner’s triumph have been the main focus, overlooked second place finisher Arthur’s Tale finally grabbed some attention in articles and rankings today. There are even a few who feel he may be peaking in similar fashion to his sire Bernardini, but I don’t see it.  Arthur’s Tale has been racing since July and only began showing promise in December.  While his finish in the Wood was a big step forward, it in no way compares to Bernardini’s quick ascent to dominance and brilliance// Several good points from various blogs today, including A Saturday Afternoon Horse, who wonders if Victor Espinoza’s hard handling of Midnight Interlude in the Santa Anita Derby could cost him four weeks down the road in the Derby// more...

Dust settles with diverse opinions on Uncle Mo, jumbled Derby picture, case of fever

Summary:

As disappointment from yesterday’s prep races still lingers, it’s time clear the fog and try to keep our eyes on the trail.  Just because the next “great superhorse” failed to deliver in only his second start of the year, going the farthest he’s ever gone, doesn’t mean the Kentucky Derby is in shambles or less enticing.  There are positives: Odds and payouts will undoubtedly be juicy and you can now make a case for almost all of the entries.  Plus, who knows-- with the rapid improvement we’ve seen in the last two weeks from horses like Shackleford, Toby’s Corner, and Midnight Interlude, the sport’s next big thing could be lurking.

Here’s what we learned from yesterday:

-       Toby’s Corner, winner of the Wood, ran the last 1/8^th in less than 12 seconds, the fastest of any Derby contender going a route distance this year.

-       Toby’s Corner will ship late to Churchill and continue to train on Tapeta surface.

-       Despite rumors, Uncle Mo seems to be fine and will ship to Churchill on April 18. He grabbed a quarter, the size of a nickel, and will heal quickly.  Nonetheless they will pull blood work Tuesday to verify his soundness.

-       Opinions on Mo’s performance and future ability vary greatly as expected— all the way to the point of some thinking he’ll never race again to others thinking he’s still the Derby favorite. I’ve included several blog posts that hit different parts of the spectrum.

-       Comma To The Top’s trainer was fairly adamant about not running in the Derby before the Santa Anita Derby, but the tune has changed Sunday. Sounds like he’s probable.

-       Beyer Speed figures:

o   Wood Memorial: Toby’s Corner 94, Arthur’s Tale 93, Uncle Mo 91

o   Santa Anita Derby: Midnight Interlude 95, Comma To The Top 95, Mr. Commons 91

o   Illinois Derby: Joe Vann 93, Zoebear 86, The Fed Eased 85

In other news, there were quite a few works for the Blue Grass Stakes today including 3 from Todd Pletcher trainees; Praetereo, Sensational Slam, and Quesns’splatekitten// The Factor put in his final work ahead of the Arkansas Derby where he will be the short-priced favorite. A big performance there and he’ll likely be the favorite for the Kentucky Derby// more...

Day of upsets, where does this leave us?

Summary:

Tobys Corner wins Wood Memorial, Photo: Horsephotos.com

It was not a question of if he would win, but by how much and in what manner.  However, as the Wood Memorial and horseracing in general have proven before, nothing is a sure bet. The once guaranteed favorite for the Kentucky Derby, Uncle Mo, ended up looking as average as the rest of the 2011 three-year-old stakes crop. Setting honest fractions, not responding to the whip, and ultimately tiring to third you could probably hear a pin drop at Aqueduct after the race. Apparently, Uncle Mo did grab a quarter (stepped on himself and tore off a piece of tissue), but tests and time will tell just how much of an excuse it was.  The winner, Toby’s Corner, was the second choice and able to capture the same race his sire Bellamy Road dominated six years ago.  Wearing blinkers, he was shuffled back in the beginning but managed to relax behind horses on the rail.  Down the stretch, he swung wide and picked off Mo and eventual second place finisher Arthur’s Tale.  He will move onto Louisville as well as Arthur’s Tale, the latter only if $200K will be good enough to qualify. As for Uncle Mo, Todd Pletcher remained non-committal for the Derby and said he needs to see how the colt trains at Churchill before making a decision.  Many will question Pletcher’s 2011 conditioning and race strategy for Uncle Mo, but I’m thinking it may have set him up nicely for the big one.

Midnight Interlude(Left), Photo: Horsephotos.com

Midnight Interlude advanced from maiden winner to Grade 1 winner in one step by nipping Comma To The Top in the Santa Anita Derby.  He was able to overcome traffic issues and greenness in the stretch to stamp himself a legitimate threat to the now wide-open Kentucky Derby. If Jaycito still remains pointed to the Derby, Bob Baffert could have three Kentucky Derby entries.  Comma To The Top, who set quick fractions and only lost by a head, ran perhaps the gutsiest performance but remains unlikely for the Derby. Mr. Commons, another first-time stakes entrant took 3rd but will probably fall short of the Derby gate.

Joe Vann won the lower regarded Illinois Derby.  Its relevance to the Kentucky Derby is probably negligible as he only picked up $180K and is not nominated for the Triple Crown// 5 big workouts by Arkansas Derby contenders Alternation, Brethren, Truman’s Commander, Dance City, and J P’s Gusto.  Alternation, who flipped in the gate for the Rebel has been progressing faster than his trainer Donnie Von Hemel anticipated.  He now seems likely to run in Oaklawn’s premier race along with the others// Mucho Macho Man fired a bullet at Gulfstream and will ship to Churchill next Sunday// Santiva and Willcox Inn took their final workouts ahead of next Saturday’s Blue Grass Stakes// more…

Prado flies in to take Machen for a spin, 5 others work for La Derby// Sweet Ducky not off the Derby Trail just yet// UAE Derby Set...

Summary:

Six Louisiana Derby contenders worked today. Longshot Populist Politics gets the bullet but Neil Howard’s Machen and Wilkinson were sharp too. Edgar Prado flew in to test-ride Machen for the first time// Kiaran McLaughlin describes more of Florida Derby-bound Soldat’s work yesterday.  Apparently he took a lot of dirt in the face by design, which seems like a smart tactic looking forward// Sweet Ducky’s trainer doesn’t rule out the Derby if he finishes well in Dubai’s UAE Derby.  That field is set as well// The Wood Memorial looks like it now has a chance of filling for Uncle Mo. Two horses originally scheduled to go elsewhere, Norman Asbjornson and Toby’s Corner, may now stay in New York.  Bob Baffert also announced Jaycito will join the cast// The familiar debate about The Factor dominated news again today. Will he get the distance, and more specifically can he win the Derby with his running style?// It’s time to start looking more closely at the graded earnings list. The top 20 qualify for the Derby.  The Factor jumped to #5 with his Rebel win.  Some big names that need an extra boost: Astrology, Sway Away, and Wilkinson.  Even Brethren and Archarcharch may need more dough// An array of new rankings released today, including celebrity Bo Derek who likes The Factor// I failed to note MacLean’s Music’s impressive maiden win at Santa Anita on Saturday (video at bottom of post).  He earned a whopping 114 Beyer which is highest first-time number ever. No word on his next start and if the Derby Trail is even in the cards// more…

Dialed In to face older colts in allowance. Pletcher admits Stay Thirsty not fully cranked up. Handicapper picks for the Gotham.

Summary:

Just hours after Bloodhorse published a story on the Tampa Bay Derby being Dialed In’s next logical race, an allowance with his name as an entry filled at Gulfstream.  Everyone seems happy.  So are there any reservations of running against older colts at such a critical time? His competition includes a graded stakes placed runner and recent allowance winners.  Dick Downey still believes it’s a weak bunch//There is a quote from Todd Pletcher on Stay Thirsty’s tight workout schedule.  Is Pletcher’s “not fully cranked up” the same as Mott’s “not fully cranked up”?// More background articles on the Gotham plus a few expert handicapper picks// Some of the other upcoming 3YO stakes got some ink today- Battaglia and Mountain Valley

Rebel to get new shooter// Astrology stretches to 6 panels// Toby’s Corner the Gotham Sleeper?

Summary: Crossbow officially off the trai// There will be another maiden winner thrown to the Derby Prep wolves- and another Uncle. Uncle Brent most likely will be asked to stretch from his 6 furlong 89 Beyer performance last Saturday to the Rebel Stakes// Interesting stat in the first article below. 8 of the 11 graded Derby preps have been won by horses who were first or second at every call.  While that leads to the obvious point of looking for more patient runners, it must be noted some of those winners have sat off the pace in earlier races (Soldat, Brethren).  Plus, others in that group of 8 may prove to be sprinters (The Factor, Flashpoint)//

Entries drawn for two big preps, Mandella throws Ten Devils into the fire, Zito reveals more on The Factor

Summary:

The big news of the day is the close of entries for two stepping-stones to the Kentucky Derby.  Comma To The Top draws the rail in the El Camino.  The easier race for them might have just got a little trickier.  Trial by fire- Mandella not only switches Ten Devils to dirt but also talks of altering his running style… in a G2 no less. Plus the Factor still possible for San Vincente, Walden says no rush with Cal Nation, and Mucho Macho Man may bolt from the South Florida circuit to the Fairgrounds.

Three bullets by contenders, Sam F. Davis field comes into focus, trainer plans and more

Summary:

Bullet works by To Honor and Serve, Awesome Patriot and Justin Phillip.  The field for the Sam F. Davis becomes clearer- Brethren steps up.  Updates on trainer plans for Wilkinson, Toby’s Corner, and Casper’s Touch.

Toby's Corner romps, Shackleford advances, Twinspired takes WEBN

CTD Daily Feed Summary:

Toby’s Corner splashes to Whirlaway win.  Shackleford books a spot in the Fountain of Youth. Favored Twinspired wins the WEBN easily. Is it me, or did it look like they were running in quicksand down the stretch? Nice works from Rogue Romance and Pants on Fire while Astrology returns, albeit slowly.