Kentucky Derby decisions: Who's in, most likely in, out, and undecided?

I’ll admit, yesterday’s headline was a little misleading.  I intended to paint a picture of the Derby field being somewhat set with the last major preps out of the way and the final 20 in graded earnings just about solidified.  Monday reminded me how much will change-- or at least be in question-- all the way up to approximately 6pm on May 7th.  

The news today for multiple Kentucky Derby prospects is difficult to keep track of, especially seeing as various outlets ran conflicting stories // Astrology, one of CTD’s favorite prospects, was officially ruled out of the Kentucky Derby.  Trainer Steve Asmussen said his return race at Sunland was a rough one, and he’s already too far behind in training.  The news was not surprising and obviously the right decision, but adds another chapter to the “what could have been” for Kentucky Derby 137.  For the moment, he is pointed to the Jerome Stakes in two weeks with the Preakness after that.  With that decision, Santiva, who had a lackluster performance in the Blue Grass Stakes, now assumes spot #20 for the Derby// The graded earnings chart could still change depending on the outcome of the upcoming Lexington Stakes.  Silver Medallion could be headed there and would crash the party with a 1st or 2nd finish// News varied slightly on the status of European contender Master Of Hounds. As it stands now, all signs point to Louisville, but his connections stopped short of 100% confirming him for May 7th saying he “still has a few pieces of work”// Animal Kingdom, the winner of the Spiral Stakes at Turfway will work Saturday at Churchill where the results of that dirt try will determine if he’s to be entered in the Derby.  While that may sound like a possible window of opportunity for those on the outside, it’s usually the case the horse will be Derby-bound regardless// Interesting that Jay Privman says J P’s Gusto and The Factor are not likely to run in the Derby as I haven’t heard anything close to definitive from either trainer// Uncle Mo safely settled into his new stall at Churchill Downs.  A disappointing last race apparently costs you a police escort and a line of fans waiting for your arrival. Quotes from Todd Pletcher don’t sound especially encouraging for Uncle Mo to fully recover from his GI tract infection in time for the Derby// The Preakness has been confirmed for Norman Asbjornson, who finished 4th in the Wood Memorial// more…

Here is where we stand as of April 18:
In: Archarcharch, Brilliant Speed, Decisive Moment, Dialed In, Midnight Interlude, Mucho Macho Man, Nehro, Pants On Fire, Santiva, Soldat, Toby’s Corner, Twice The Appeal
Most likely in: Master Of Hounds, Stay Thirsty
50/50: Animal Kingdom, Comma To The Top, Jaycito, Uncle Mo, Watch Me Go,
Most likely out: The Factor, J P’s Gusto (according to DRF)
Out: Astrology
Outside looking in: Watch Me Go, Shackleford, Twinspired, Silver Medallion

·       Pictures: Derby horses at Churchill (Courier Journal)
·       KY Derby Trail: Arch of triumph (Bloodhorse Blog)
·       Borel the safest Derby bet (ESPN)
·       Who wants to be Kentucky Derby favorite? (New Albany Times Union Blog)
·       Still a ways to go on road to Derby (The Brock Talk)
·       Perfume missing from roses (Horse Race Insider)
·       Another one bites the dust (Sports Network)
·       Final round of preps offers little clarity (New Jersey Star Ledger)
·       Kentucky Derby Update 4/18 (Churchilll Downs)

·       Steve Haskin’s Derby Dozen 4/18 (Bloodhorse Blog)
·       AP Top Ten 4/18 (AP)
·       Alicia Wincze’s Derby Dozen 4/18 (Lexington Herald Leader)
·       Celebrity Top 10: Scott Davenport (Courier Journal)

·       Astrology: CD- 4F- 50:40- B- 27/48
·       Silver Medallion: CD- 4F- 51:40- B- 35/48
·       Anthony's Cross: HOL- 3F- 36:80- H- 8/17

Lexington Stakes: Probable- Beachcombing, Casper’s Touch, Derby Kitten, Prime Cut, Silver Medallion.  Possible- Hurricane Lake, Uncle Sam (not sure why Jaycito is not mentioned)

Quote of the day: “This is the most uninspiring crop of 3-year-olds in memory, recent or otherwise. It is no longer possible for any of these to disappoint in the Derby. There are no positive expectations”- Paul Moran