The chase ends: Wildcard Animal Kingdom takes the roses, Preakness next

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Summary:

We shouldn’t have been surprised.  If you’ve been following the Derby Trail at all this year, the fact an overlooked long shot with a thin resume emphatically wins America’s greatest horse race was only fitting.  Animal Kingdom was a wildcard going in.  He had never raced on dirt, yet backside onlookers had sung praises of how he was training and coming into the race.  His dirt pedigree was questionable.  Sired by turf champion Leroidesanimaux, a majority of his offspring race and win on turf or synthetic surfaces.  Trainer Graham Motion insisted afterwards if horses are of a certain caliber, "they can handle the switchover”.  While that was true for the winner of the 2011 Kentucky Derby and somewhat supported further with Master of Hounds close fifth place finish, it is not the norm.  It happens in horse racing. It does not happen often, and that is why handicappers will continue to take pedigree into account.

The results of the Kentucky Derby seem to always provide multi-layered storylines of firsts, opportunity, redemption, and missed chances, and this year was no different.  It was the first Derby win for both jockey John Velazquez and trainer Graham Motion. It looked as though Velazquez would be watching the Derby on television from the Jock’s room when two-year-old champion Uncle Mo was scratched Friday.  Opportunity rang later when Animal Kingdom’s owner, Barry Irwin, decided to use his services instead of recently injured Robby Albarado.  Albarado insisted he was ready, but Irwin did not want to take the chance, and the decision ultimately took the jockey off the winner.  After 12 failed attempts and 3 late defections Velazquez finally got to smell the roses. Trainer Graham Motion also persevered through losing his leading challenger Toby’s Corner to an injury sustained last Sunday.

Second and third place finishers Nehro and Mucho Macho Man should be commended for running well, but aside from the winner, fourth place Shackleford ran most impressive.  Considering the track was not speed favoring and the fact frontrunners usually don’t fare well in the Derby, his effort was truly gutsy. Some will say the fractions were slow, which they were in comparison to recent Derbies, but the pace was still fair for a mile and a quarter race. Pants On Fire*, Soldat, Decisive Moment, and Comma To The Top* also gave close chase in the beginning but faded to 9^th, 11^th, 14^th, and 19^th respectively.

As for CTD’s picks, they were nowhere close.  Unfortunately top pick Archarcharch sustained a condylar fracture and was retired, but it appears he will recover.

What will the future bring? It looks as though Animal Kingdom is headed to Baltimore for the Preakness.  Who knows, we could have a superstar on our hands considering the way he took to dirt in his first try, his running style, and long distance pedigree. Here’s hoping for the first Triple Crown winner since 1978…

Stats from the Kentucky Derby:

·       Beyer Speed Figures: Animal Kingdom 103; Nehro 99; Mucho Macho Man 99; Shackleford 97; Master of Hounds 95; Santiva 95

·       Animal Kingdom (courtesy of Churchill Downs)

o   First horse since Needles in 1956 to win the Kentucky Derby off a six-week layoff

o   Fifth horse since 1900 to win Derby off 4 or fewer starts

o   First winner to break its maiden at Keeneland since Forward Pass in 1968.

o   Fifth consecutive winner with only two starts as a 3-year-old prior

Articles:

·       Graham Motion: “Yesterday was surreal” (Bloodhorse)

·       Fate makes a comeback for Animal Kingdome trainer (Courier Journal)

·       Victory in Kentucky Derby meant to be for jockey (Courier Journal)

·       Albarado unhappy to be taken off winner (Courier Journal)

·       Kentucky bred winner has an international lineage (Courier Journal)

·       Transcript: Post-Derby winner’s press conference (Churchill Downs)

·       Kentucky Derby losing jockey and trainer quotes (Churchill Downs)

·       Rosie Napravnik yearns for a return trip (Courier Journal)

·       Comma To The Top, Archarcharch exit Derby injured (Brisnet)

·       Pants on Fire will rest until Haskell after bleeding in Kentucky Derby (DRF)

·       Derby Day handle increases, attendance a record (DRF)

·       Arlington trainer comes close with Nehro (Star-Telegram)


*It was reported that Comma To The Top sustained an ankle injury and Pants On Fire bled following the race

Master Of Hounds makes first training appearance, all eyes and ears on Friday Mo decision

Summary:

Master Of Hounds finally took his first steps on the Churchill track Thursday.  It was a very light effort that did not impress onlookers, however his appearance cannot be ignored.  Not only is he big, but he also has a compact yet powerful stride.  Uncle Mo put in a strong gallop, although the chances of him entering the Derby gate seem to diminish by the minute. A decision will be announced most likely early Friday.  Other horses that impressed Thursday morning were Mucho Macho Man (looking better each day), Shackleford (as always), Archx3 (I’m’ still not over the #1 draw), Animal Kingdom (another improver), and Twinspired (not a typo).  The recent reports on Soldat have been glowing, but I saw a horse that was fighting the bit and did not look comfortable// Robby Albarado, who suffered facial injuries from a Wednesday spill, will still be aboard Animal Kingdom in the Derby as expected// DRF does a rundown of where future wagers currently stand.  Decisive Moment leads the way with the best value at 186-1 from pool 1.  Dialed In, the favorite in the Derby, closed at 11-1 in one future pool, and Archarcharch was as high 50-1.  Don’t think futures are a smart bet, however, only 3 out of 110 horses from the Wynn Future Book in September actually made the Derby field// As we have seen during Derby week, the number of articles grows by the day.  Friday and Saturday CTD blog posts will be shorter due to the fact we’ll be at the races.  Be sure to still check out the site for our final Derby picks and wagers along with a unique new handicapping formula// more…

Toby’s Corner out, Derby Kitten in// Archarcharch gets unintentional official work// Kentucky Derby draw nears

Summary:

Toby’s Corner marks the 69^th promising horse off the Derby Trail, according to the respected and mysterious @DerbyContenders account on Twitter. He came up lame in his left hind leg after Sunday’s work in Maryland.  Derby Kitten takes spot #20 with Sway Away waiting in the wings. Javier Castellano gets the mount// No serious workouts were scheduled today, but the clocker decided to record Archarcharch’s gallop as an official move.  Everyone was surprised, including his trainer “Jinks” Fires. The half mile time was a slow 52 flat, but considering he was just coming off a bullet move from Friday and not really supposed to work in the first place, the gallop (or whatever it was) should help him stay fit for the upcoming mile and a quarter test// Recent reports on Uncle Mo seemed to suggest the probability of a defection from the Derby was fading with each day, but Tuesday brought more uncertainty as owner Mike Repole indicated he could still scratch as late as Saturday afternoon// Among today’s gallopers, Mike Welch highlights Mucho Macho Man, Soldat, and Shackleford who all continue to thrive// Tomorrow is the big draw which will be televised on Versus starting at 4pm// more... 

Archarcharch impresses in work// Decisive Moment so-so// Soldat ready to go

Summary:

Archarcharch was the star of the day for Friday April 29^th based on his lightning 5-furlong work. Mike Welsch claims the move was so good he now considers the colt to be among the top Kentucky Derby contenders// Decisive Moment did not fair as well.  Not only was the overall clocking mediocre, apparently he was switching leads several times down the stretch// Soldat put in his final work before the Derby in Florida.  There are no official clockers this time of year at Palm Meadows, but according to this trainer Kiaran McLaughlin Soldat worked a half in 49 and galloped out in 1.01:40.  McLaughlin was just short of exuberant// Mike Welsch commented that Santiva and Twice The Appeal did not leave a good impression during their gallops and jogs, while Uncle Mo continues to look strong.

As expected, Garret Gomez was given the mount on Master Of Hounds.  The rumor just last weekend was that Calvin Borel would get the job, but he apparently decided to go with a colt that was definite at the time in Twice The Appeal.  That decision caused a little drama between the connections of Twice The Appeal and his former jockey Santiago Reyes.  The LA Daily news reports Reyes’ agent was not pleased over the late announcement, not only because it’s the Derby, but also because they gave up six mounts at Hollywood thinking they would be in Louisville// more…

Zito Dialed In for Kentucky Derby// Master Of Hounds likely, Mr. Commons could sneak in

Summary:

Dialed In’s official four furlong workout time at Palm Meadows Thursday was a solid 48.40, but Mike Welsch at the Daily Racing Form claims he was “never asked to exert himself at any time”. While some question whether Dialed In’s light workout pattern and short four-furlong moves will have him ready for the mile and a quarter test May 7^th, Zito claims the horse is ultra fit, ready for the challenge, and won’t be short.  Soldat, also stationed at Palm Meadows, will have his final work Friday and then join Dialed In on the flight to Louisville Saturday// Master Of Hounds was officially withdrawn from Newmarket’s 2,000 Guineas, which means the Kentucky Derby is very likely.  Garrett Gomez is still considered the frontrunner to get the mount// Archarcharch and Decisive Moment are set to put in their final works Friday// With all of the recent movement and defections among the all important graded earnings list, lightly raced Mr. Commons now sits at spot #23.  What was once an unthinkable scenario for a colt with only $120,000 in earnings, qualifying for the Derby now doesn’t seem entirely far-fetched.  Trainer John Shirreffs decided to work the recent Santa Anita Derby third-place runner an extended seven furlongs at Hollywood Park just in case he stretches out to a mile and a quarter May 7th// TVG is reporting that Derby winning jockey Mike Smith will have the mount on Twinspired// I’ve always enjoyed reading the transcripts from the DRF chats just days before the Derby, seeing as it always provides valuable info from some of the game’s best handicappers.  Christmas came a little early as DRF laid out several Derby questions for their columnists. A must read// more…

The Factor returns to track for first time since surgery, uncertain for Kentucky Derby// Nehro, Comma work

Summary:

The backside whispers of The Factor recently undergoing minor surgery for flipping his soft palate turned out to be true as Bob Baffert confirmed to the Daily Racing Form on Monday.  The Factor was out on the Churchill Downs track for his first gallop since the myectomy and appeared to be moving well.  As for entering him in the Derby, Baffert was non-committal and opened the door for just about every possible next race scenario: Derby, Preakness, Met Mile, sprint, and "insert race name here"// While Nehro’s official workout was clocked at a slow 1:02.80, Mike Welsch claims the colt looked comfortable on the muddy Churchill track.  He did have his head cocked towards the infield and had to navigate through some traffic nearing the finish. In the workout report video he also touches on several key works and observations from the last few days.  Interesting notes are that Stay Thirsty and Pants on Fire did not gallop out very well and Archarcharch didn’t seem to like the muddy surface. Most impressive of all to him was Soldat last Thursday at Palm Meadows// No word on Comma To The Top’s workout at Hollywood.  The final time was not quick, but no other details available at the moment.

J P’s Gusto is still possible for the Kentucky Derby and a decision should be announced by Wednesday// Mike Watchmaker handicaps this year’s Derby preps, which offers a unique angle.  Although the lowest odds are not for the Arkansas Derby, he does note it as his first preference, which I would agree// There is still an outside chance Master Of Hounds will race this Saturday in the Two Thousand Guineas as opposed to the Derby// Uncle Mo and Midnight Interlude are scheduled to work at Churchill Tuesday (weather permitting)// An updated graded earnings list is linked below and Astrology is back on, although as we reported yesterday he is still doubtful for the Derby//

Several nice background articles today: Brilliant Speed’s upbringing at Live Oak Stud, Rosie Napravnik’s confidence and success in Louisiana, and breeder Carole Rio’s tales of Mucho Macho Man// more…

Mixed signals on The Factor// Soldat sharp// Nakatani goes with the “now” horse

Summary:

George Bolton, co-owner of The Factor, feels it’s unlikely his colt will be entered in the Kentucky Derby.  However, a recent quote from Bob Baffert suggests the door is by no means closed, as he raved how well The Factor galloped at Churchill// Soldat had a sharp work at Palm Meadows that had trainer Kiaran McLaughlin thinking roses.  If the rain never ends in Louisville, The French Soldier could get some serious consideration based on his January effort in the slop at Gulfstream. Alan Garcia was also confirmed as the Derby rider// In other jockey news, Corey Nakatani has chosen to ride Nehro over Comma To The Top// With impending rain in Louisville Saturday, Animal Kingdom’s workout will be moved to Keeneland// Todd Pletcher reports Uncle Mo’s appetite is getting better// As a point of clarification, I said yesterday Silver Medallion would enter the Derby picture with a win or place in Saturday’s Lexington Stakes.  A place would put him in spot #22, so no guarantee, but he would still have a realistic shot with impending defections// Aidan O’Brien still has May 7^th circled on the calendar for Master Of Hounds and plans to ship the horse to Louisville May 3^rd, which doesn’t give him much training time on dirt// more…

Kentucky Derby decisions: Who's in, most likely in, out, and undecided?

Summary:

I’ll admit, yesterday’s headline was a little misleading.  I intended to paint a picture of the Derby field being somewhat set with the last major preps out of the way and the final 20 in graded earnings just about solidified.  Monday reminded me how much will change-- or at least be in question-- all the way up to approximately 6pm on May 7^th.  

The news today for multiple Kentucky Derby prospects is difficult to keep track of, especially seeing as various outlets ran conflicting stories // Astrology, one of CTD’s favorite prospects, was officially ruled out of the Kentucky Derby.  Trainer Steve Asmussen said his return race at Sunland was a rough one, and he’s already too far behind in training.  The news was not surprising and obviously the right decision, but adds another chapter to the “what could have been” for Kentucky Derby 137.  For the moment, he is pointed to the Jerome Stakes in two weeks with the Preakness after that.  With that decision, Santiva, who had a lackluster performance in the Blue Grass Stakes, now assumes spot #20 for the Derby// The graded earnings chart could still change depending on the outcome of the upcoming Lexington Stakes.  Silver Medallion could be headed there and would crash the party with a 1^st or 2^nd finish// News varied slightly on the status of European contender Master Of Hounds. As it stands now, all signs point to Louisville, but his connections stopped short of 100% confirming him for May 7^th saying he “still has a few pieces of work”// Animal Kingdom, the winner of the Spiral Stakes at Turfway will work Saturday at Churchill where the results of that dirt try will determine if he’s to be entered in the Derby.  While that may sound like a possible window of opportunity for those on the outside, it’s usually the case the horse will be Derby-bound regardless// Interesting that Jay Privman says J P’s Gusto and The Factor are not likely to run in the Derby as I haven’t heard anything close to definitive from either trainer// Uncle Mo safely settled into his new stall at Churchill Downs.  A disappointing last race apparently costs you a police escort and a line of fans waiting for your arrival. Quotes from Todd Pletcher don’t sound especially encouraging for Uncle Mo to fully recover from his GI tract infection in time for the Derby// The Preakness has been confirmed for Norman Asbjornson, who finished 4^th in the Wood Memorial// more…

Sizable fields for Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass// Two more Derby Trail withdrawals

Summary:

The Factor was a made a heavy 7-5 favorite in the Arkansas Derby, which drew 13.  Saturday’s most intriguing prep includes several looking to live up to their original hype (Elite Alex, Sway Away, Brethren) and others looking to move up quickly in their first tries in stakes company as Midnight Interlude did last Saturday (Alternation, Dance City)// A full field was drawn for the Blue Grass Stakes lead by Santiva at 3-1. While the race appears competitive on paper, Santiva is the only real contender who has been mentioned in the same breath as Derby, mostly due to the others specializing in turf or artificial surfaces.  The first place check of $450,000 would push forward whoever wins, regardless of their background.  In the four runnings of the Blue Grass on Polytrack, the shortest priced winner was 8-1, so it will be interesting to see if the favorite disappoints again. Swift Warrior was expected to be entered but was injured during his three furlong workout on Wednesday// The Kentucky Derby seems to still be a very likely spot for European runner Master Of Hounds, much to the dismay of those sitting just outside the top 20 in graded earnings// Arthur’s Tale, one of those who were on the cusp, was ruled out of The Run For The Roses due to an injury// more…

Churchill releases slew of Derby updates// Connections undecided on Flashpoint// Mystery solved on Gourmet Dinner

Summary:

Churchill Downs released three important Derby elements today- #1: the updated graded earnings list, which always differs slightly from other unofficial versions floating around.  #2: list of the 13 horses who filled in a late Triple Crown nomination, among them Tampa Bay Derby winner Watch Me Go and Rushaway Stakes winner Swift Warrior.  #3: preliminary odds for Future Pool #3.  Uncle Mo is still the favorite at 3-1 while there were 8 new additions including Premier Pegasus at 8-1 and other surprise Derby prep winners// Mystery solved on Gourmet Dinner, who ran an impressive second place in the Fountain Of Youth.  Brian Zipse spoke with trainer Steve Standridge and learned he’s definitely off the trail with a sore shin// Elite Alex is confirmed for the Arkansas Derby// You gotta love it when trainers and owners say they’re not eyeing the Kentucky Derby.  The connections of Data Link, Flashpoint, and Comma To The Top all claim racing at Churchill on May 7^th is not a priority. Most of the reasons are actually logical (distance, surface), but we’ll see if they hold that line after a good performance in an upcoming prep// more…

First Derby horse arrives on Churchill grounds// Master Of Hounds may throw name in Derby hat// Dialed In better be on Saturday

Photo: Churchill Downs

Summary:

There’s probably not much buzz around the Twin Spires right now. It’s only one Derby horse. It’s only unheralded Decisive Moment. Nonetheless, his presence in stall 12 of Barn 41 this morning serves a reminder that the Kentucky Derby, less than 6 weeks away, is fast approaching.  Prep races from here out are serious, of the grade one variety. Jockeys (and their agents) are prepared to scratch, claw, and burn bridges for mounts. Trainers are racking their brains over timing, graded earnings, travel, surfaces, equipment changes, and all other matters related to squeezing their colt into the 20 horse field// Aidan O’Brien from across the pond didn’t make it easier for anyone as he announced the Derby is a possibility for Master Of Hounds, who finished 2^nd in the UAE Derby. His appearance on the crowded graded earnings list elbows out whoever will assume the #21 spot, plus adds another potential starter with real dirt questions// Matt Gardner makes a good point that Nick Zito possibly misjudged the campaign for Dialed In.  Seeing as the graded earnings mark to make the Derby is higher than usual, he will need a strong performance in the Florida Derby to make the gate in Louisville// In his weekly column, Steve Haskin makes a case for those horses who didn’t win last weekend’s preps but still showed promise: Elite Alex, Crimson China, Astrology, and Nehro.  Elite Alex and Nehro will have to run in the Arkansas Derby in order to get more earnings, while Astrology could end up there too, although only for fitness purposes// To Honor And Serve worked a bullet at Payson in preparation for this weekend’s Florida Derby. That field looks to be a relatively small 6 to 7 horses// Cris Collinsworth is this week’s celebrity top 10 for the Courier Journal// more…