Kentucky Derby attention turns to early odds and big upcoming preps

The Factor arrives at Oaklawn (Photo: Oaklawn Park)

I made a decision today to discontinue posting links to analysis and opinion on Uncle Mo’s performance in the Wood (aside from Steve Haskin’s weekly blog).  With an apparent clean bill of health and all signs pointing to him running next in the Kentucky Derby, it’s time to move on to other trail doings for the time being.  Not only are we coming up to the final weekend of major prep races, but Churchill Downs also decided to release odds this afternoon for the Kentucky Derby if it was held today.  The purpose apparently was to merely start a conversation, and within an hour it was clear mission was accomplished.  Opinions were as varied as they were for last Saturday’s prep results. Among them were that no horse in the wide-open crop should be lower than 5-1, Uncle Mo’s odds at 4-1 were way off line, and oddsmaker Mike Battaglia had generally lost his mind. I’ve pasted his odds below.

The Factor, a possible favorite in the Kentucky Derby, returned to the Oaklawn grounds today.  Two of his competitors for the Arkansas Derby, J W Blue and Archarcharch put in their final works// With the torrential downpour occurring in and around Kentucky, Blue Grass Stakes probable Swift Warrior had his scheduled work delayed until Wednesday// Dialed In, another potential favorite for the Derby, had his first work since winning the Florida Derby.  Nick Zito seemed pleased and stated the colt will only have one more serious work for the Derby, which is unorthodox, but a formula that has proven to be effective// It sounds like Astrology may be pointed to the Preakness instead of the Derby due to falling behind in training and racing// more…

Kentucky Derby odds (if held today)
The Factor (7-2); Dialed In (4-1); Uncle Mo (4-1); Soldat (10-1); Toby’s Corner (10-1); Midnight Interlude (12-1); Mucho Macho Man (12-1); Animal Kingdom (15-1); Pants On Fire (15-1); Santiva (20-1); Shackleford (20-1); Comma to the Top (30-1); Jaycito (30-1); Stay Thirsty (30-1); Astrology (50-1); Decisive Moment (50-1); J P’s Gusto (50-1); Master of Hounds (50-1); Twice the Appeal (50-1);and Watch Me Go (50-1)- Mike Battaglia

·       The Factor has chance to be Derby favorite (Bloodhorse)
·       Speed to The Factor of 10 (Zipse At The Derby)
·       VA-bred to dance with Derby bid [Dance City] (Virginia Thoroughbred Blog)
·       Astrology may point to Preakness (Bloodhorse)
·       Lane’s End weekender pedigree: Toby’s Corner (Paulick Report)
·       KY Derby Trail: Cry Uncle (Bloodhorse Blog)

·       Paulick Derby Index 4/12 (Paulick Report)

·       Dialed In: PMM- 4F- 49:90- B- 5/7
·       Archarcharch: OP- 4F- 50:80- B- 7/8
·       J W Blue: OP- 4F- 47:80- B- 2/8
·       Prime Cut: KEE- 4F- 1.00.20- B- 5/9

Top winning BRIS figs last week: Joe Vann, Midnight Interlude & Manicero-98; Toby's Corner, J J's Lucky Train, Jerry n' Elvis-97 (DerbyContenders Twitter)

Quote of the day: “There is no logic when it comes to the Derby. There is only the Derby”- Steve Haskin