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| Creative Cause winning the San Felipe. |
With just eight weeks left until the 138th running of the
Kentucky Derby, many fans and handicappers begin to separate the real
contenders from the pretenders.
Oftentimes, the pretenders still make the Derby gate, and in some cases
actually win the Roses if the stars align. Still, the process of arranging prospects
from the top shelf to the bottom is not only an enjoyable exercise, but time
saving come Derby week.
Saturday and Sunday offered four graded stakes for 3-year-olds hoping
to take the next step towards Churchill Downs in May and also an opportunity
for us to compare and assess where things stand. Undoubtedly, the toughest field of the weekend and possibly
all year belonged to the San Felipe (G2)
Saturday at Santa Anita. The group
consisted of both accomplished horses and exciting new prospects and for the
most part did not disappoint with the top two betting selections dueling it out
in the stretch.
The second favorite and eventual winner Creative Cause possessed a solid
foundation and multiple graded wins, while favored Bodemeister came into the
race off an eye-popping maiden victory.
Although both horses had a difficult time running straight down the
stretch, they were moving quick and well ahead of the rest of the group.
Creative Cause earned an impressive 102 Beyer Speed figure with Bodemeister
just a point less at 101.
Doubters have noted both horses ran greenly and were aided by a “soft
pace”. I disagree, especially with the pace excuse. An opening quarter of 22.95 is honest for a route, not to
mention Creative Cause began the race off the pace in the middle of the pack
and had to chase down Bodemeister who was in a better spot. As for running crooked, plenty of Derby
winners have failed to run a straight line. it is especially of no concern for Bodemeister who was
making just his third start and at his longest distance yet. Creative Cause’s veering brings more
caution seeing as it was his 7th race, but he corrected himself late
and hit the wire very strong to get the job done over a talented bunch.
Midnight Transfer was more than two lengths back of Bodemeister for a
third place finish- not bad for a two-turn debut, but I still can’ see him ever
catching up. Grade 1 winner
Liaison put in a decent effort for 4th, but I would keep him on the
mid to lower shelf as he has not proven much on dirt. Empire Way was perhaps the biggest letdown finishing next to
last. The full-brother to
Breeders’ Cup winner Royal Delta is not a true contender. Creative Cause and
Bodemeister will most likely stage a rematch in the Santa Anita Derby (G1)
next.
With the defection of Take Charge Indy, the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) lost some luster. The field was mostly a combination of the same mid-level
cast from the Sam Davis (G3) and unproven maiden and minor stakes winners.
Prospective just missed winning the Sam Davis, but got his revenge Saturday by
gutting out a stretch duel that went back and forth with Golden Ticket. His Beyer number came back 88, which is
not only in stark contrast with the San Felipe, but well below the average
figures for recent preps. Even if
you don’t subscribe to the numbers, it’s hard to argue Prospective beat any
serious contenders. Nonetheless he now has enough earnings for a spot in the
Kentucky Derby gate.
Todd Pletcher’s Spring Hill Farm, a maiden winner, was the post time
favorite, but had a rough start when he hit the gate and was pushed in tight. He could improve from the 4th
place effort next time out, but time is running out for any Derby dreams to
come to fruition.
The star attractions for the short 7-furlong Swale Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream were graded stakes winner Motor
City and graded stakes placed Ever So Lucky, yet it was another quiet graded
stakes placed runner Trinniberg who stole the show. Anyone who followed the
juvenile stakes in the Summer and Fall will remember Trinniberg was very game
and just missed in the Hopeful (G1) and Nashua (G2). The 4-month layoff seemed to help as he was in control the
entire running of the Swale and ended up a dominant 6-length winner. Trainer Bisnath Parboo says all options
are open for Trinniberg’s next race, and he could try a stretch out. Looking at his pedigree, Trinniberg may
not relish anything past a mile.
Longshot Hello Prince finished second with Ever So Lucky getting the
show. The latter’s trainer
Jonathan Sheppard was pleased with his effort and said it will serve the colt
well next time out going longer.
Motor City was a non-factor and finished 8th.
You normally don’t expect serious contenders to come out of the Palm Beach Stakes (G3), which is on
turf at Gulfstream Park, however Sunday’s running could produce two prospects. Howe
Great had a perfect stalking trip on the inside and convincingly held off a
grinding Dullahan who did come four wide on the far turn. Howe Great and
Dullahan will both point for the Bluegrass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland before hopefully
heading to the Derby. Dullahan
already has the earnings and has shown he fares well on dirt when finishing 4th
in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind Union Rags, Hansen, and Creative
Cause. Howe Great won his maiden
on dirt, but still has question marks on that surface against tough competition.
He did remind us he can rate just off the pace, which was a different style
from his previous two wins and a good one to possess for the Derby.
In other weekend news, loads of leading Derby contenders were on the
work tab, including early favorite Union Rags and both Southwest (G3) winners
Secret Circle and Castaway.
Stories and times below// It’s worth noting Overdriven had his first
official workout since his injury.
The undefeated Grade 2 winner hasn’t raced since July and is not listed
on the current Graded Earnings list so it’s unlikely he’s a contender// In
surprising news Gemologist, winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), will make
his 3-year-old debut in a one mile allowance at Gulfstream instead of the Rebel
(G2) at Oaklawn. WinStar Farm who owns the colt were quoted as saying they like
the small field size of the allowance and did not like the fact Gemologist
would have to van back from Arkansas.
He’ll face Hopeful (G1) winner Currency Swap, who will also be making
his sophomore debut// Gemologist’s defection from Rebel could open up a spot
for promising maiden winner Kid Sidney, although he’s still on the outside
looking in of the expected full field.
San Felipe (G2)
Winner: Creative Cause
Trainer: Mike Harrington
Beyer: 102 (Preliminary)
Tampa Bay Derby (G2)
Winner: Prospective
Trainer: Mark Casse
Beyer: 88 (Preliminary)
Swale Stakes (G2)
Winner: Trinniberg
Trainer: Bisnath Parbhoo
Palm Beach Stakes (G2)
Winner: Howe Great
Trainer: Graham Motion
Graded Earnings
Updated Contender List
Articles
Sunday
Works
Sunday
Longview Drive- HOL- 6F- 1.14:60- H- 11/12
Daddy Nose Best- SA- 5F- 1.00:20- H- 8/43
News Pending- GP- 5F-
1.00:95- B- 8/19
Saturday
Chips All In- SA- 5F- 1.02:80- H- 3/3
Isn't He Clever- SUN- 5F- 1.01:00- B- 3/21
Consulado- HOL-
4F- 46:00- H- 1/37
Castaway- SA-
6F- 1.11:60- H- 1/10
Secret Circle- SA- 6F- 1.11:60- H- 1/10
Hogy- HAW-
5F- 1.02:20- B- 5/28
Hakama- FH-
4F- 48:00- B- 1/7
Cyber Secret- OP- 5F- 59:40- B- 1/57
Fort Loudon- CRC-
4F- 49:00- B- 13/87
Reveron- CRC-
5F- 1.01:00- B- 2/29
Jake Mo- OP-
5F- 1.00:60- B- 6/57
Atigun- OP-
5F- 1.00:60- B- 6/57
Alpha- PMM-
5F- 1.01:21- B- 10/18
Currency Swap- GP- 6F- 1.11:40- H- 1/3
Scatman- OP-
5F- 1.01:00- B- 6/27
Union Rags- PMM-
4F- 50:76- B- 21/23
Overdriven- PMM-
3F- 39:88- B- 9/9
Rankings
Notes
and bits from web and Twitter:
“Lightbulb finally back on for
Currency Swap looked great 6 furs. gate 1:11.55 w/Maragh last 1/2 :46 and 2 by
far his best this winter”- Mike Welsch via Twitter
“Union Rags at Palm Mead. easy
half in :50.76 out 1:04.40 broke 4 behind mate, fin. 1 in front cruising”- Mike
Welsch via Twitter
