Chasing The Derby: Ever So Lucky

Showing posts with label Ever So Lucky. Show all posts

Blue Grass pace will be hot, Hansen vulnerable?// Union Rags back to work// Mike Smith gets Derby mount

What a difference a day makes. The immediate sentiment after the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) draw on Wednesday was that it was Hansen vs. “the rest”. Thursday rolls along and the tides change. Whether the reasons have to do with actual doubts about the favorite or simply bettors trying to find more of a payoff remains unclear. 3 of the 5 handicapper picks below have Dullahan as the winner, which is not crazy when you look at the colt’s class and success at Keeneland. The debate on Hansen’s chances are centered on pace, with at least 6 entries showing a propensity for early speed. Although Hansen showed some ability to rate in the Gotham (G3), he was not far off the pacesetter and had the luxury of staying in the clear on the outside. He could be under considerably more pressure Saturday, both from a speed and crowding perspective// Jennie Rees from the Courier Journal posted a video interview with trainer John Sadler in which the trainer says he pulled an audible to run Holy Candy in the Blue Grass (G1) due to the apparent favorable pace scenario. He thinks his colt could be flying from the back of a hotly contested battle. Sadler also says Holy Candy is one of the most talented horses he’s ever trained// There are nice features on Blue Grass entrants Ever So Lucky and Prospective below as well// The connections of Cozzetti are hoping for a quick pace in the Arkansas Derby (G1), seeing as the colt proved he can close in his last race the Tampa Bay Derby (G3)// Union Rags put in his first official breeze at Palm Meadows since a third place finish in the Florida Derby (G1). The possible Derby favorite’s first workouts off a race are usually modest in final time, however Thursday’s work was a zippy 48:40 for 4-furlongs. Observers noted he did it with ease. Union Rags will ship to Keeneland on Saturday where he will work either there or Churchill Downs the following week// I’ll Have Another will ship to Churchill April 28^th. Trainer Doug O’Neill says the Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner is showing “great energy”// With Julien Leparoux committed to ride Union Rags in the Kentucky Derby, Mike Smith picked up the mount on Daddy Nose Best. The El Camino Real (G3) and Sunland Derby (G3) winner is a sleeper candidate who has done nothing wrong in his two races as a sophomore// Kiaran McLaughlin stated Alpha will van to Churchill Downs on Monday where he will work twice before the Derby// more…

Race pages for Arkansas Derby (G1) and Blue Grass (G1) with past performances, picks, and previews here

Daily Kentucky Derby News:

Arkansas Derby

Baffert holds strong pair in Bodemeister, Secret Circle (DRF)

Cozzetti settles in for Arkansas Derby run (Brisnet)

Arkansas Derby a make or break race for Najjaar (TTimes)

Blue Grass Stakes

Maker was banking on Hansen’s success (Courier Journal)

Hansen could face some early pressure (DRF)

Time for Hansen to step up (Sports Network)

Hansen highlights Blue Grass with surprise in store (Bleacher Report)

Hansen faces big test in Blue Grass (View From The Blue Grass Blog)

Sadler gives Holy Candy a shot at the Derby (Brisnet)

Holy Candy trainer John Sadler on the Blue Grass Stakes [video] (Courier Journal)

Prospective a race from being Derby ready [with video] (Toronto Sun)

Prospective set for final prep in Blue Grass (TTimes)

Ever So Lucky wound up for Blue Grass (DRF)

Final chance to grab graded earnings (And Down The Stretch They Come)

Picks:

Arkansas Derby

Commish’s Picks: One last surprise before May 5? (The Downey Profile)

Triple Crown Insider [video] (TwinSpires Blog)

Weekend Warrior (DRF)

Blue Grass Stakes

That Handicapping Show [video] (Bloodhorse)

Dick’s Picks: Bluegrass win to early speed or deep closer (The Downey Profile)

Triple Crown Insider [video] (TwinSpires Blog)

Weekend Warrior (DRF)

Other Kentucky Derby News and Opinion

Union Rags workout reports: DRF / Bloodhorse / TTimes

Julien Leparoux on Ever So Lucky, Union Rags [video] (YouTube)

Mike Smith to ride Daddy Nose Best in Kentucky Derby (Bloodhorse)

I’ll Have Another resumes Kentucky Derby preparations (DRF)

Kentucky Derby mount a dream come true for Gutierrez (DRF)

Point/Counterpoint: East vs. West best preps? (Horse Racing Nation)

On to Kentucky for Gemologist, I’ll Have Another (TrueNicks)

Gemologist made big impression as a weanling (Bloodhorse)

Works

Union Rags- PMM- 4F- 48:40- B- 2/16

Russian Greek- KEE- 4F- 50:00- B- 24/27

Notes and bits from web and Twitter:

“Union Rags final Fla. work 1/2 in :48.32 at PM final 1/4 :23.81 going EZ galloped out 1:01.39 looked great!”- Mike Welsch via Twitter

“Union Rags 4F 48.40 at Palm Meadows. Splits 24.60, 36.60. Out 1:01.60. Next ship & breeze at Kee, then work at CD on 4/28 or 29”- Derby Media via Twitter

“McLaughlin confirms Alpha vans to Churchill on Monday; to work twice before Derby”- David Grening via Twitter

Reveron will try to increase chance of making Derby// Ever So Lucky fires bullet ahead of Blue Grass// Handsome Mike out of Ark Derby

The connections for Reveron are making no bones about their desire to get to the Kentucky Derby. They have decided to point the colt to the Lexington Stakes (G3) April 21st at Keeneland in an effort to boost his graded earnings. Reveron currently sits at #23 on the list, and that ranking could drop further after this weekend’s prep races// Ever So Lucky fired a bullet at Keeneland in preparation for the Blue Grass (G1) Saturday. Dick Downey may have misinterpreted trainer Jonathan Sheppard’s quote after the work, in which Sheppard mentioned the Blue Grass would be the longest race of Ever So Lucky’s life. Downey took that to mean Ever So Lucky will not point for the Derby, but Sheppard may have meant “so far”. We’ll know more after the Blue Grass// Miguel Mena will ride Russian Greek in the Blue Grass for the first time. Russian Greek is coming off a disappointing 8^th place finish in the Vinery Spiral (G3) at Turfway and is now under the care of trainer Gennadi Dorochenko// Ken Ramsey will have two interests in the Blue Grass with Gung Ho and and Politicallycorrect. It appears both horses can only gain entry into the Derby with a victory. Adirondack King and Golden Ticket were officially declared out of the Blue Grass, which means maiden winner Holy Candy will most likely get in the race// Handsome Mike will miss the Arkansas Derby (G1) due to a cough and questionable blood work results. Doug O’Neill’s assistant Leandro Moro hopes to get the colt right in time for the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland where a victory could squeeze him into the Derby// Michael Matz is still undecided on when to send possible Derby favorite Union Rags to Louisville, but he has scheduled the colt’s first workout since the Florida Derby (G1) for Friday or Saturday at Palm Meadows// Take Charge Indy, winner of the Florida Derby, will ship into Louisville with the Todd Pletcher contingent (Gemologist and El Padrino) on May 1// Larry Jones confirmed Mark Valeski will not race again before the Derby, which means they will need some luck to stay at #20 on the graded earnings list. Jones thinks he has a “live horse” and says the numbers are very similar to Hard Spun, who finished a hard fought 2^nd in the 2007 Kentucky Derby// I almost had a panic attack myself reading quotes from Dr. Hansen’s NTRA teleconference Tuesday, and I’m not really sure why. In a whirlwind of thoughts he says he has tremors due to Derby fever, thinks Hansen will dominate the Blue Grass Saturday, believes it’s a no-brainer for Ramon Dominguez to opt for Hansen over Alpha in the Derby, and likes the little white stripe between his colt’s nostrils. OK…// A blog entry by Steve Haskin theorizes the winner of the Kentucky Derby could be determined by the jockey who can manage the best trip. That theory is true in tons of races, but especially important when many of the 20 likely contenders appear evenly matched. Haskin also takes Joel Rosario to task (again) for using the whip on Creative Cause who seems to veer off course when urged// Updated rankings and weekly top speed figures below…

Derby News

Keeneland Notes Tuesday 4/10 (Keeneland)

Blue Grass contender summary 4/10 (The Downey Profile)

Sheppard hints: Ever So Lucky not a Derby candidate [and more notes] (The Downey Profile)

Prospective could get Casse into Kentucky Derby picture (DRF)

Oaklawn Park Notes April 10 (Oaklawn Park)

Handsome Mike sick, will miss Arkansas Derby (The Downey Profile)

Court targets first Arkansas Derby three-peat (DRF)

Reveron may enter Lexington in last-ditch effort for graded earnings (DRF)

Parbhoo gives update on Trinniberg (Brisnet)

Derby dreams ride in on a white horse (NY Times)

Haskin’s Derby Trail: Riders on the storm (Bloodhorse Blog)

Dr. Hansen at fever pitch for Derby (Bloodhorse)

Pedigree profile: Gemologist (Paulick Report)

Went the Day Well and Daddy Nose Best (Bloodhorse)

I’ll Have Another- The Rodney Dangerfield of racing (Sports Network)

TCI weekend recap: no love for I’ll Have Another (TwinSpires Blog)

Derby betting: Plenty of parity at the top (Bloodhorse)

Interview with Larry Jones 4/10 (Bloodhorse)

A good bet: Highest graded earnings ever will be needed for Derby (Courier Journal)

Rankings

Paulick Derby Index 4/10 (Paulick Report)

Down and Derby Sweet 16 (Zipse at the Track Blog)

Top Weekly Speed Figures*

Top winning 3yo BRIS figs last week: Summer Breezing-106; Gemologist-104; Graydar-104; Trinniberg-100; I'll Have Another-98; Mop Head-98

Winning 3yo Beyers last week: Summer Breezing-89; Gemologist-98; Graydar-100; Trinniberg-94; I'll Have Another-94; Mop Head-81.

*Source: DerbyContenders via Twitter

Works

Castaway- SA- 4F- 48:00- H- 4/20

Ever So Lucky- KEE- 5F- 57:00- H- 1/25

Blinkers off for Creative Cause, good idea?// Dominguez set to go on Alpha in Wood// Updated contenders and rankings

I will freely admit I have no experience in training thoroughbred racehorses. That fact doesn’t stop me from questioning certain tactics and decisions trainers make with their horses. Mike Harrinton, trainer of Creative Cause, announced Tuesday the colt will race in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) without blinkers for the first time in his racing career. The obvious and simple question is why? Creative Cause is a multiple graded stakes winner, comes off an impressive victory in the contentious San Felipe (G2), has shown no regression in his 3-year-old form, and sits among the top 3 in most Kentucky Derby contender rankings. So, the obvious question seems legitimate. Harrington states the equipment change is due to the fact Creative Cause is wandering and unfocused in most of his races. I still feel it carries more risk than reward. Although the race after the Santa Anita Derby (G1) is more important, Saturday’s prep is still a key launching pad and a change in routine this late in the game could veer things off course at an inopportune time. Creative Cause worked 4-furlongs at Hollywood Wood Park Tuesday in 48:40// Excuses are plentiful in the DRF feature on Brother Francis, who has yet to win a race despite remaining on the Derby Trail and sitting at #31 on the graded earnings list. Trainer Jim Cassidy believes multiple obstacles have blocked the colt from finishing first in four starts and they will try to reverse their fortune in Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby// Ramon Dominguez is on target to ride Alpha in Saturday’s Wood Memorial (G1). His recovery from a separated collarbone has stayed on schedule. Dominguez could have a tough decision to make come Derby time as he rides both Hansen and Alpha. If Alpha moves on to the Kentucky Derby he would be the first entrant for owner Sheik Mohammed to not have prepped in Dubai ahead of the race // Trainer Jonathan Sheppard was happy with Ever So Lucky’s workout at Keeneland Tuesday. The graded stakes placed runner will work again next Tuesday ahead of the Blue Grass Stakes (G1)// Updated contender list and CTD Top 5 rankings can be found below…

CTD Contenders

List updated 4/3

CTD Top 5

Rankings updated 4/3

Articles

Blinkers off Creative Cause for SA Derby (Bloodhorse)
Creative Cause sticks with new work pattern (DRF)

Creative Cause matures on Triple Crown trail (TTimes)

Brother Francis seeking new status (DRF)

Ever So Lucky works; Blue Grass the target (Bloodhorse)

Alpha follows new path to Kentucky Derby Godolphin (DRF)

Dominguez ready to ride Alpha in Wood (Bloodhorse)

Transylvania Stakes: Bloodhorse / TTimes

Hype springs eternal (Bloodhorse Blog)

They all get beat (Hansen Blog via Courier Journal)

Repole hopes to bring an ‘Entourage’ to Derby (Bloodhorse)

Union Rags still favored despite loss (Miami Herald)

Haskin’s Derby Trail: Tami and Indy- a love story (Bloodhorse Blog)

Take Charge Indy pedigree profile (Paulick Report)

‘Plain’ yearling is Louisiana Derby’s ‘Hero’ (Bloodhorse)

Kentucky Derby hopefuls gear up for the big day in May (CBS Miami)

Step right up (ESPN)

2012 Kentucky Derby contender draws interest in IndyCar paddock (PaddockTalk)

Works

Ever So Lucky- KEE- 5F- 59:40- H- 4/19

Creative Cause- HOL- 4F- 48:40- H- 5/14

Other Rankings

Paulick Derby Index 4/3 (Paulick Report)

Weekly Speed Figures*

Top 3yo winning BRIS figs last week: Take Charge Indy-104; Derby Gold & Ez Effort-100; Sachem Spirit-96; Unstoppable U & Hero of Order-95

Winning 3yo Beyers last week: Take Charge Indy-95; Derby Gold-93; Ez Effort-87; Sachem Spirit-85; Unstoppable U-79; Hero of Order-90.

*Source: DerbyContenders via Twitter

Weekend Derby prep recap// Gemologist, Currency Swap to meet in allowance// Updated Graded Earnings & CTD Contenders lists

Creative Cause winning the San Felipe.

With just eight weeks left until the 138^th running of the Kentucky Derby, many fans and handicappers begin to separate the real contenders from the pretenders. Oftentimes, the pretenders still make the Derby gate, and in some cases actually win the Roses if the stars align. Still, the process of arranging prospects from the top shelf to the bottom is not only an enjoyable exercise, but time saving come Derby week.

Saturday and Sunday offered four graded stakes for 3-year-olds hoping to take the next step towards Churchill Downs in May and also an opportunity for us to compare and assess where things stand. Undoubtedly, the toughest field of the weekend and possibly all year belonged to the San Felipe (G2) Saturday at Santa Anita. The group consisted of both accomplished horses and exciting new prospects and for the most part did not disappoint with the top two betting selections dueling it out in the stretch.

The second favorite and eventual winner Creative Cause possessed a solid foundation and multiple graded wins, while favored Bodemeister came into the race off an eye-popping maiden victory. Although both horses had a difficult time running straight down the stretch, they were moving quick and well ahead of the rest of the group. Creative Cause earned an impressive 102 Beyer Speed figure with Bodemeister just a point less at 101.

Doubters have noted both horses ran greenly and were aided by a “soft pace”. I disagree, especially with the pace excuse. An opening quarter of 22.95 is honest for a route, not to mention Creative Cause began the race off the pace in the middle of the pack and had to chase down Bodemeister who was in a better spot. As for running crooked, plenty of Derby winners have failed to run a straight line. it is especially of no concern for Bodemeister who was making just his third start and at his longest distance yet. Creative Cause’s veering brings more caution seeing as it was his 7^th race, but he corrected himself late and hit the wire very strong to get the job done over a talented bunch.

Midnight Transfer was more than two lengths back of Bodemeister for a third place finish- not bad for a two-turn debut, but I still can’ see him ever catching up. Grade 1 winner Liaison put in a decent effort for 4^th, but I would keep him on the mid to lower shelf as he has not proven much on dirt. Empire Way was perhaps the biggest letdown finishing next to last. The full-brother to Breeders’ Cup winner Royal Delta is not a true contender. Creative Cause and Bodemeister will most likely stage a rematch in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) next.

With the defection of Take Charge Indy, the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) lost some luster. The field was mostly a combination of the same mid-level cast from the Sam Davis (G3) and unproven maiden and minor stakes winners. Prospective just missed winning the Sam Davis, but got his revenge Saturday by gutting out a stretch duel that went back and forth with Golden Ticket. His Beyer number came back 88, which is not only in stark contrast with the San Felipe, but well below the average figures for recent preps. Even if you don’t subscribe to the numbers, it’s hard to argue Prospective beat any serious contenders. Nonetheless he now has enough earnings for a spot in the Kentucky Derby gate.

Todd Pletcher’s Spring Hill Farm, a maiden winner, was the post time favorite, but had a rough start when he hit the gate and was pushed in tight. He could improve from the 4^th place effort next time out, but time is running out for any Derby dreams to come to fruition.

The star attractions for the short 7-furlong Swale Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream were graded stakes winner Motor City and graded stakes placed Ever So Lucky, yet it was another quiet graded stakes placed runner Trinniberg who stole the show. Anyone who followed the juvenile stakes in the Summer and Fall will remember Trinniberg was very game and just missed in the Hopeful (G1) and Nashua (G2). The 4-month layoff seemed to help as he was in control the entire running of the Swale and ended up a dominant 6-length winner. Trainer Bisnath Parboo says all options are open for Trinniberg’s next race, and he could try a stretch out. Looking at his pedigree, Trinniberg may not relish anything past a mile.

Longshot Hello Prince finished second with Ever So Lucky getting the show. The latter’s trainer Jonathan Sheppard was pleased with his effort and said it will serve the colt well next time out going longer. Motor City was a non-factor and finished 8^th.

You normally don’t expect serious contenders to come out of the Palm Beach Stakes (G3), which is on turf at Gulfstream Park, however Sunday’s running could produce two prospects. Howe Great had a perfect stalking trip on the inside and convincingly held off a grinding Dullahan who did come four wide on the far turn. Howe Great and Dullahan will both point for the Bluegrass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland before hopefully heading to the Derby. Dullahan already has the earnings and has shown he fares well on dirt when finishing 4^th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind Union Rags, Hansen, and Creative Cause. Howe Great won his maiden on dirt, but still has question marks on that surface against tough competition. He did remind us he can rate just off the pace, which was a different style from his previous two wins and a good one to possess for the Derby.

In other weekend news, loads of leading Derby contenders were on the work tab, including early favorite Union Rags and both Southwest (G3) winners Secret Circle and Castaway. Stories and times below// It’s worth noting Overdriven had his first official workout since his injury. The undefeated Grade 2 winner hasn’t raced since July and is not listed on the current Graded Earnings list so it’s unlikely he’s a contender// In surprising news Gemologist, winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), will make his 3-year-old debut in a one mile allowance at Gulfstream instead of the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn. WinStar Farm who owns the colt were quoted as saying they like the small field size of the allowance and did not like the fact Gemologist would have to van back from Arkansas. He’ll face Hopeful (G1) winner Currency Swap, who will also be making his sophomore debut// Gemologist’s defection from Rebel could open up a spot for promising maiden winner Kid Sidney, although he’s still on the outside looking in of the expected full field.

San Felipe (G2)

Winner: Creative Cause

Trainer: Mike Harrington

Chart: Equibase chart

Replay: YouTube

Wrap-up articles: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

Beyer: 102 (Preliminary)

Tampa Bay Derby (G2)

Winner: Prospective

Trainer: Mark Casse

Chart: Equibase chart

Replay: Bloodhorse Video

Wrap-up articles: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

Beyer: 88 (Preliminary)

Swale Stakes (G2)

Winner: Trinniberg

Trainer: Bisnath Parbhoo

Chart: Equibase chart

Video: YouTube

Wrap-up articles: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

Palm Beach Stakes (G2)

Winner: Howe Great

Trainer: Graham Motion

Chart: Equibase chart

Video: YouTube

Wrap-up articles: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

Graded Earnings

Updated Graded Earnings List (DRF)

Updated Contender List

CTD Contenders 3/11

Articles

Sunday

Creative Cause and Bodemeister will meet again in Santa Anita Derby (DRF)

Gemologist, Currency Swap return Friday at Gulfstream (TTimes)

Kid Sidney waiting in the wings for Rebel (Brisnet)

After the wire 3/11 [video] (Bloodhorse)

Brief homecoming for Derby hopeful Hansen (Cincinnat Enquirer)

Good crop, bad crop (Equispace Blog)

Saturday
Union Rags works towards Florida Derby (Bloodhorse)

Union Rags gets maintenance work at Palm Meadows (DRF)

Baffert duo works in company for Rebel (DRF)

Currency Swap works toward return (DRF)

The fear of losing (Bloodhorse Blog)

Owner reaffirms Wood Memorial for Hansen (Bloodhorse)

Works

Sunday

Longview Drive- HOL- 6F- 1.14:60- H- 11/12

Daddy Nose Best- SA- 5F- 1.00:20- H- 8/43

News Pending- GP- 5F- 1.00:95- B- 8/19

Saturday

Chips All In- SA- 5F- 1.02:80- H- 3/3

Isn't He Clever- SUN- 5F- 1.01:00- B- 3/21

Consulado- HOL- 4F- 46:00- H- 1/37

Castaway- SA- 6F- 1.11:60- H- 1/10

Secret Circle- SA- 6F- 1.11:60- H- 1/10

Hogy- HAW- 5F- 1.02:20- B- 5/28

Hakama- FH- 4F- 48:00- B- 1/7

Cyber Secret- OP- 5F- 59:40- B- 1/57

Fort Loudon- CRC- 4F- 49:00- B- 13/87

Reveron- CRC- 5F- 1.01:00- B- 2/29

Jake Mo- OP- 5F- 1.00:60- B- 6/57

Atigun- OP- 5F- 1.00:60- B- 6/57

Alpha- PMM- 5F- 1.01:21- B- 10/18

Currency Swap- GP- 6F- 1.11:40- H- 1/3

Scatman- OP- 5F- 1.01:00- B- 6/27

Union Rags- PMM- 4F- 50:76- B- 21/23

Overdriven- PMM- 3F- 39:88- B- 9/9

Rankings

2012 Derby Failure Five (Greg Calabrese Blog)

Notes and bits from web and Twitter:

“Lightbulb finally back on for Currency Swap looked great 6 furs. gate 1:11.55 w/Maragh last 1/2 :46 and 2 by far his best this winter”- Mike Welsch via Twitter

“Union Rags at Palm Mead. easy half in :50.76 out 1:04.40 broke 4 behind mate, fin. 1 in front cruising”- Mike Welsch via Twitter

Thoughts on Hansen's Gotham win// Key workouts for the Rebel, Tampa Bay Derby, San Felipe// State of Play bounces back

According to his owner, 2-year-old Champion Hansen was not happy after his first defeat nearly five weeks ago in the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream. A flight to New York and an authoritative win in the Gotham Stakes (G3) Saturday at Aqueduct hopefully will make Hansen easier to deal with around the barn. Plagued with the misfortune of post 12 in a 13-horse field, many handicappers (including myself) felt the colt was vulnerable as the short-priced favorite, especially considering his apparent need to set the pace. When the gates flung open and Hansen was forced to both race wide and sit off a couple early leaders, it was immediately apparent he was going to be tested. Trainer Michael Maker had made adjustments to Hansen’s bit and also decided to shed blinkers completely. Whether it was those tweaks or the mere fact the colt is maturing, the fifth race of the Champ’s career proved to be a revelation. Jockey Ramon Dominguez was able to hold Hansen back and get him to relax along the backstretch just off pacesetter King and Crusader. The winning move came on the far turn when Dominguez loosened the reigns, passed the leader on the outside, and navigated an easy stretch run along the rail. The final margin was 3-lengths over My Adonis who was another 6-lenghts clear of Finnegan’s Wake, and the final time for 1 1/16 miles was 1:43.84.

It is of no fault to Hansen who ended up behind him, but the Gotham field was questionable. Only two horses were open Stakes winners (both ungraded) while 9 challengers only graduated from either maiden or allowance company. This scenario was intentional for Hansen’s connections, who fled from the tough Florida circuit for an easier spot to boost his confidence.

Nonetheless, Hansen showed toughness, poise, and professionalism in his Gotham win. His ability to now rate off the lead will cause many previous doubters to rethink their opinion on his chances in the Kentucky Derby. His next and final race before the Derby will most likely be the Wood Memorial (G1) at the same track, which could set an intriguing matchup with Alpha//

State of Play was back to winning ways Saturday with a photo finish victory in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway. The Spiral (G3) will most likely be his next race, which would be fitting for connections Team Valor and Graham Motion, who used the same race to launch Animal Kingdom into the Derby last year// After trainer Mike Harrington was quoted multiple times saying he was trying to separate his two Derby contenders Creative Cause and Empire Way, it seems there is now a good possibility they will face each other in the San Felipe (G2)// The Kentucky Derby is still a possible target for the filly On Fire Baby// Ever So Lucky, who had some foot bruising recently, fired a bullet workout move at Gulfstream. He’s still likely for the Swale (G2) next Saturday// I’ll Have Another had his public workout Saturday at Santa Anita, and according to DRF it was good one. Many other key workouts occurred Saturday for contenders Dullahan, Currency Swap, Alpha, Battle Hardened, and Gemologist. All times are below// The Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #2 is still open and as of Saturday night ‘All Others’ were still the favorite at 5-2 followed by Union Rags at 4-1. Hansen dropped from 12-1 to 8-1 following his Gotham victory…

Gotham Stakes (G3)

Winner: Hansen

Trainer: Michael Maker

Jockey: Ramon Dominguez

Chart: Equibase Chart

Video: YouTube

Wrap-up articles: NYRA / AP / Bloodhorse / Brisnet / DRF

Beyer: 95 (Preliminary)

John Battaglia Memorial Stakes

Winner: State of Play

Trainer: H. Graham Motion

Jockey: Victor Lebron

Chart: Equibase Chart

Wrap-up articles: DRF / Bloodhorse / Brisnet

Beyer: 83 (Preliminary)

Articles

‘All Others’, Union Rags hold steady in Derby futures (Churchill Downs)

Triple Crown possibles work at Oaklawn Park (Bloodhorse)

I’ll Have Another blitzes six furlongs in 1:10 (Brisnet)

Creative Cause may join stablemate Empire Way in San Felipe (DRF)

Battle Hardened in fighting shape for Tampa Bay Derby (DRF)

Ever So Lucky works toward possible Swale start (The Downey Profile)

Soutwest victor Castaway back to work (Bloodhorse)

Works

Empire Way HOL- 5F- 1.01:00- H- 24/54

Consulado HOL- 4F- 46:00- H- 1/48

Hakama FH- 5F- 1.01:60- B- 2/7

Hogy HAW- 5F- 1.04:60- B- 9/11

Scatman OP- 5F- 1.01:60- B- 10/42

Atigun OP- 5F- 1.01:00- B- 6/42

Hammers Terror FG- 5F- 1.00:40- B- 7/53

Dullahan GP- 5F- 1.00:60- H- 2/19

Ever So Lucky GP- 5F- 58:80- H- 1/19

Currency Swap GP- 5F- 1.03:80- B- 17/19

Alpha PMM- 4F- 49:83- B- 31/48

Battle Hardened PMM- 5F- 1.02:04- B- 3/9

Thunder Moccasin PMM- 4F- 49:70- B- 25/48

Gemologist PMM- 5F- 1.00:22- B- 1/9

I'll Have Another SA- 6F- 1.10:00- H- 1/4

Algorithms off Trail// Florida Derby possible for Alpha, El Padrino// Creative Cause works// Ever So Lucky injured

As is often the case, the rigors of the Kentucky Derby Trail rear their ugly head early and often. Algorithms is officially off the Trail and will have surgery to remove a fractured splint. A heartbreaking loss for all connections considering he was a serious contender for the Derby// Ever So Lucky has a bruised foot, however the plan is to still make the Swale Stakes (G2) March 10^th// Looks like Southwest (G3) winner Secret Circle will return to Oaklawn to try the Rebel (G2). Even more revealing was owner Mike Pegram stating he’s not giving up Derby hopes for Drill, winner of the 7-furlong San Vicente but dissapointing in recent two-turn attempts. Derby Fever already creeping up in February?// Interesting article from DRF on Mark Valeski. Trainer Larry Jones thought the colt looked “fat” before the Risen Star and hopes the tough stretch duel will help tighten him up. He also said he won’t train the colt too hard leading into the Louisiana Derby (G2) based on his history of sore shins// Creative Cause had a perfect 6-furlong work at Hollywood Park in preparation for the San Felipe (G2) according to trainer Mike Harrington. He could face his stablemate Empire Way, but the latter may ship to Oaklawn for the Rebel (G2) instead// Theoretically the Florida Derby (G1) could offer an enticing Derby preview featuring not only Kentucky Derby favorite Union Rags, but possibly other top contenders Alpha and El Padrino. Alpha’s trainer Kiaran McLaughlin likes the idea of a small field and ensuring Ramon Dominguez rides the colt, while Dominguez could have a conflict in the Wood Memorial in New York where he would probably opt to ride Hansen instead. As for El Padrino, it still doesn’t seem the Florida Derby is first choice for his owners or Todd Pletcher, but they’re keeping the option open// A good article on all of Dale Romans’s Derby prospects. Romans doesn’t seem too confident in Finnegan’s Wake switching to dirt in Saturday’s Gotham (G3), but he’ll try nonetheless.

Gotham Probables: Chief Energy, Consortium, Cop A Tude, Dan and Sheila, Done Talking, Hansen, King and Crusader, Maan, My Adonis, Pretension, Raconteur, Tiger Walk (Source: The Downey Profile)

Articles

Algorithms to undergo surgery, off Triple Crown Trail (TTimes)

Ever So Lucky has foot bruise (DRF)

Creative Cause drill quick three-quarters (Bloodhorse)

Florida Derby under consideration for El Padrino (Bloodhorse)

Secret Circle still in running for Derby (Princeton Daily Clarion)

Florida Derby possible for Alpha (DRF)

Hansen is ready for Aqueduct’s Gotham Stakes (Graded Stakes Blog)

Mark Valeski not at his peak (DRF)

Can Union Rags stretch out (TrueNicks)

Don’t sleep on Romans (Bloodhorse Blog)

On the move: Rafael Bejarano (Bloodhorse Blog)