Chasing The Derby: Thunder Moccasin

While the major racetracks have had difficulty attracting healthy fields for their noteworthy Kentucky Derby preps- five entered for the Hutcheson, six in the Withers and Holy Bull, and only four or five expected in Saturday’s San Vicente at Santa Anita- that is not a problem for Oaklawn Park and Monday’s Southwest (G3). In fact, with possibly 21 horses pointing for the race, there is a distinct possibility the Southwest could be split into two races, both carrying a $250,000 purse and Grade 3 status. Smarty Jones Stakes winner Junebugred, who will get some betting action in either race, worked a bullet 48 and 1 Tuesday morning. According to trainer Steve Hobby, Junebugred has progressed from his last victory and should be a threat// The Southwest did lose one contender when trainer Larry Jones decided to keep Mark Valeski at the Fair Grounds. He’ll have to face stablemate and Lecomte (G3) winner Mr. Bowling, and as Jones stated he’ll soon know which one is better// Ten entries are expected for the El Camino Real Derby (G3) at Golden Gate Fields. In addition to likely favorite Russian Greek there will be a filly, Lady of Fifty, who recently won the California Oaks. Information on the other eight possible contenders can be viewed in the linked DRF article below// As expected, Bob Baffert will send impressive maiden winner Bodemeiseter to a stakes race next time out in March. Which particular race is unknown, but that’s often the case with Baffert who keeps decisions close to the vest until days before the race// Jason Shandler discusses Javier Castellano and his agent’s decision to ride Algorithms over Union Rags and says it simply came down to trainers. Given that Todd Pletcher is loaded with at least five serious Derby prospects, a majority ridden by Castellano, they wanted to stay on as many as possible this early in the season. It still seems something is missing in this theory. If Castellano chose Union Rags, would he have been pulled from Gemologist, El Padrino, and Spring Hill Farm? None of those horses have a scheduled race that conflict with Union Rags, so there is no reason he would lose those mounts, unless Pletcher hinted he would look elsewhere// more…

Articles

Southwest may wind up split (DRF)

California invaders arrive safely, including Breeders’ Cup winner Secret Circle (Oaklawn Park)

Afford targets Risen Star (DRF)

Jones pointing both Mark Valeski and and Mr. Bowling to Risen Star (DRF)

Bodemeister headed to stakes after maiden romp (DRF)

Carava regroups in new territory [American Act] (DRF)

El Camino Real a proven springboard (DRF)

Thunder Moccasin: Pretty and pretty talented (Bloodhorse)

Haskin’s Derby Trail: El Al jets ready to take off (Bloodhorse Blog)

From ‘Rags’ to Pletcher riches (Bloodhorse Blog)

Up to code [Algorithms’ mare] (Bloodhorse Blog)

Gomez hoping to return for San Felipe (Bloodhorse)

3-year-olds to watch (In The Money Blog)

A bright future (ESPN)

Registration open for ‘Road to the Roses’ Kentucky Derby Fantasy Challenge (Churchill Downs)

Future Odds

Wynn Las Vegas 2/13

Rankings
Paulick Derby Index 2/14 (Paulick Report)

Down and Derby Sweet 16 (Zipse at the Track Blog)

Works

Souper Speedy- PMM- 5F- 1.03:22- B- 3/6

Junebugred- OP- 4F- 48:20- B- 1/8

Worthington- SUN- 5F- 1.02:40- B- 14/32

Russian Greek- GG- 4F- 49:00- H- 2/10

Weekly Speed Figures*

Top winning 3yo BRIS figs last week: Golden Ticket-103; Bodemeister-101; Fed Biz, Good Morning Diva, Thunder Moccasin, Hardened Wildcat & Panthro-97

Top winning 3yo Beyers last week: Bodemeister-99; Fed Biz-97; Thunder Moccasin-93; Panthro-90; Good Morning Diva-87; Golden Ticket & Hardened Wildcat-83;

*DerbyContenders via Twitter

Thunder Moccasin wins Hutcheson easily, stretch-out unlikely// Hansen dodges competition// Baffert has another contender in Bodemeister

Sent off at odds of 1-5, Thunder Moccasin easily dispatched pacesetter Il Villano in the far turn to cruise to a 6 3/4 length victory in the Grade 2 Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Todd Pletcher threw a wet blanket over any hopes of Thunder Moccasin pointing for the Kentucky Derby when he reiterated his feelings the son of A.P. Warrior is best suited to one-turn races. Despite his pedigree suggesting he could go further, Pletcher thinks his temperament and running style shout sprinter. Many were anticipating the return of Ever So Lucky, but he was scratched by trainer Jonathan Sheppard due to wet track conditions and the trainer still feeling uneasy about his recent preparation. He’ll probably wait for the Swale (G2), which really puts him behind schedule for making it to the Kentucky Derby//

Bodemeister, Bob Baffert, and Rafael Bejarano

Results

Hutcheson (G2)

Winner: Thunder Moccasin

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Johnny Velazquez

Chart: Equibase chart

Replay Video: YouTube

Wrap-up articles: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

Sweet Envoy S.

Winner: Pretension

Trainer: Christopher Grove

Jockey: Javier Santiago

Chart: Equibase chart

Video Replay: Bloodhorse Replay

Wrap-up articles: DRF

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #1

Live Odds

Articles

Hansen to Gotham; Alpha will train in Florida for Wood (Brisnet)

Sheppard scratches Ever So Lucky from Hutcheson (DRF)

Bodemeister sizzles, Street Life flies late (Zipse At The Track Blog)

Apprender, No Spin work toward Southwest (Brisnet)

I’ll Have Another doing well (The Downey Profile)

State horses prep for Derby (Tulsa World)

Works

Friscan- FH- 4F- 49:80- B- 1/8

Ted's Folly FG- 5F- 1.03:60- B- 36/45

Apprender- OP- 4F- 51:00- B- 41/56

No Spin- OP- 5F- 1.01:80- B- 2/29

Hansen’s connections announced the colt will ship to New York for the Gotham (G3) instead of staying in Florida for the Fountain of Youth (G2). The decision not only denies a rematch between Hansen and Union Rags, but also avoids facing Algorithms in the near future. The pace scenario changes for the Fountain of Youth making it a little easier for Discreet Dancer// Apprehender and No Spin worked for the Southwest (G3). John Servis of Smarty Jones fame is bringing a Southwest contender from Florida named Adirondack King//

As of 10pm Saturday, Union Rags is the individual favorite at 7-1 in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #1, with “all others” still favored at 6-5. Wagering ends at 6pm EST Sunday//

The Hutcheson was not the only race Kentucky Derby followers were watching Saturday. Race 3 at Gulfstream was a competitive optional claimer that featured several horses with connections hoping to advance on the Derby Trail. Not surprisingly, it was won by Todd Pletcher-trained Spring Hill Farm. The victory gave Pletcher his 3,000 career win and the feat somewhat overshadowed Spring Hill Farm’s big win. No news yet on what’s next for him// Bob Baffert looks to have yet another Derby hopeful in Bodemeister who dominated his second maiden try at Santa Anita Saturday. The son of Empire Maker covered the mile distance in just a second off the track record with a wining margin of 9 1/4 lengths. See the video below for reaction from Bob Baffert and Rafael Bejarano:

Fed Biz could be the real deal// Classics unlikely for Thunder Moccasin// Rough trip for Stat's comeback

In general, only stakes race results generate a quick turnaround in the thoroughbred news media world. Facts, videos, charts, and analysis trickle in hours and sometimes days after the race. However, when a nearly one million dollar 3-year-old trained by Bob Baffert dominates an optional claiming race at Santa Anita three months before the Kentucky Derby, news tends to spread just as quick, if not quicker. Fed Biz, the lone CTD Contender to have only a maiden win on his resume, handled his step-up to allowance company with ease in the 3^rd race at Santa Anita. His winning margin was 5 3/4 lengths, and he covered the mile in 1.34:74. The Baffert charge, who jockey Rafael Bejarano already claimed as his “Derby horse”, will undoubtedly point to a graded stakes next time out. Consulado was behind him for the place and well clear of 3^rd place finisher Blueskiesnrainbows by 6 1/2 lengths//

Todd Pletcher admitted he’s putting Thunder Moccasin in a tough spot for his second race, the 7-furlong Hutcheson Stakes (G2). However, based on recent training and the fact the 2-3-4 finishers from his maiden score came back to win (2^nd place Panthro has won twice), he feels he has a shot. Pletcher also revealed he feels Thunder Moccasin would not excel at added distance//

In addition to Fed Biz’s race, another important allowance contest took place Thursday. Race 8 at Gulfstream marked the return of Pletcher-trained Stat, who was 2^nd to Union Rags last time out in the Saratoga Special (G2) in August. After a hop at the break and racing wide most of the way Thursday, the best Stat could finish was 4^th, but only a length-and-a-half behind the winner Maan//

Several articles on both the joy and perils of wagering on the Kentucky Derby futures// more…

Articles

Fed Biz impresses on eve of Future Wager (Brisnet)

Fed Biz dominates Santa Anita allowance field (Bloodhorse)

Fed Biz cruises to victory (DRF)

Feb Biz jumps on Triple Crown Trail with allowance win (TTimes)

Bob Baffert has another Kentucky Derby hopeful in Fed Biz (LA Times Blog)

Fed Biz impresses (Zipse At The Track Blog)

Thunder Moccasin move ‘ambitious’: Todd Pletcher (The Downey Profile)

Kinglet swoops late for UAE 2,000 Guineas win (Racing Post)

Empire Way headed to San Felipe (DRF)

Najjaar needs good week to make Southwest run (The Downey Profile)

Algorithms commences classic calculation (Bloodhorse)

Rising Stars: Alpha impresses in New York (The Saratogian)

Ever So Lucky starts outside in Hutheson Stakes (DRF)

Ever So Lucky expected to kick-off sophomore campaign in Hutcheson (TTimes)

Taking a look at potential Kentucky Derby horse Z Dager (Bleacher Report)

For those wise enough to be foolish [Future book wagering] (ESPN)

Kentucky Derby Future Wagers: Bet early, bet often (Forbes Online)

I always believed in futures (Twinspires Blog)

WinStar StableMates Fantasy Derby to open (Bloodhorse)

Video:

Robert Lewis Recap (TwinSpires)

Works

Hammers Terror- FG- 4F- 50:40- B- 20/29

Majestic Stride- OP- 7F- 1.28:00- B- 1/1

Consortium- PMM- 4F- 50:90- B- 36/43

Souper Speedy- PMM- 4F- 51:49- B- 40/43

Mr. Style- PMM- 4F- 49:88 B- 21/43

Night Tide- SA- 5F- 59:00- H- 2/29

Hutcheson Handicapper Picks

Dick’s Picks (The Downey Profile)

Notes and bits from web and Twitter:

Todd Pletcher on Discreet Dancer: bloodwork returned normal, he's doing better; will work Monday and still on track for Fountain of Youth- J.J. Hysell Trifecta Box via Twitter

Week In Review and Notable Performer 12/21 - 12/27

A relatively quiet Holiday week gave little juvenile action on the track, but plenty of analysis, reviews, and prognostications for 2012 as the new year approaches// Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Champion and possible 2-year-old champion Hansen returned to the work tab at Gulfstream// Peter Miller was ecstatic after Got Even won the California Breeders' Champion Stakes on opening day at Santa Anita. One would guess he’ll remain on the Santa Anita circuit for a Winter campaign// A little drama over the result of the Maryland Juvenile Stakes. Three trainers filed a protest over the fact Rick Dutrow’s winning horse received a shot of Salix too soon before post time// Harvard n Yale finished second in his stakes try at Wolverhampton and it remains to be seen whether his connections will go through with shipping him over the pond// Info on who’s starting where on the 2012 Derby trail below…

Articles:

Got Even leads all the way in California Breeders’ Champion Stakes (DRF)

Zito pointing Casual Trick to Gulfstream Park Derby (Gulfstream Park News)

Hansen tours easy half-mile (Brisnet)

Baffert, Asmussen heavy on 3-year-old talent (DRF)

Harrington has three Classic hopefuls (DRF)

Liaison wins overrated CashCall Futurity (Triple Crown Champ Blog)

2-year-olds to watch: 2011 Awards (In The Money Blog)

Trainers protest Dutrow’s victory in Maryland Juvenile (TTimes)

Gulfstream Derby key early test for Gold Megillah (DRF)

Always tricky watching young ones grow up (DRF)

Unknown 3-year-olds stir interest (Fort Smith Times Record)

Summer Front as a Kentucky Derby prospect (Zipse at the Track Blog)

Inaugural 2012 Kentucky Derby contenders update (Graded Stakes)

The Derby trail goes through Gulfstream Park (Horse Racing Nation)

Futures

Wynn Las Vegas 12/27/11

Graded Earnings List

Unofficial CTD List current as of 12/18/11

Notable Performer

Thunder Moccasin

12/24/11 Gulfstream Park Maiden Special Weight

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Chart: Equibase chart

Video: Bloodhorse replay

Beyer/BRIS: 97/100

Notes and Thoughts:

-Quick debut winner led at every call and finished just over a second off track record

-Posted a 97 Beyer figure, 6th highest of the year for juveniles.

-Sire A.P. Warrior won the San Felipe and finished 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby before finishing 18th in the 2006 Kentucky Derby

-Dam is a daughter of a stakes winner at a mile on turf

-Sold for $95,000 the July selected yearling Fasig Tipton sale. Catalog page here

Non-Graded Stakes Results

12/26 California Breeders Champion S.- SA- Winner: Got Even chart

12/26 Lost In The Fog Juvenile S.- TUP- Winner: Taylors Deal chart

Works:

12/20/11 Prospective PMM- 4F- 48:24- B- 2/23

12/20/11 Coalition BEL- 4F- 50:00- B- 27/47

12/20/11 Fort Loudon CRC- 4F- 51:40- B- 8/8

12/20/11 Worthington SUN- 5F- 1.03:00- B- 15/20

12/21/11 Daddy Nose Best SA- 5F- 1.01:80- H- 8/13

12/21/11 Longview Drive GG- 4F- 50:00- H- 4/6

12/21/11 Sweet Swap SA- 6F- 1.14:80- H- 11/14

12/22/11 Secret Circle SA- 6F- 1.11:60- H- 1/12

12/23/11 Cyber Secret CD- 5F- 1.02:00- B- 1/4 (Muddy)

12/23/11 Night Tide SA- 4F- 49:20- H- 16/33

12/23/11 Battle Hardened PMM- 5F- 1.00:05- B- 1/12

12/23/11 Reveron CRC- 4F- 51:00- B- 21/28

12/23/11 Shared Property FG- 4F- 50:40- B- 25/40

12/23/11 Mr. Bowling FG- 5F- 1.01:40- B- 13/46

12/23/11 Sir Bond FG- 4F- 48:60- B- 6/40

12/23/11 Friscan FH- 5F- 1.02:00- B- 1/8

12/24/11 Jake Mo OP- 5F- 1.01:60- B- 1/21

12/24/11 Il Villano PRX- 6F- 1.17:10- B- 1/1

12/24/11 Stephanoatsee FH- 5F- 1.01:60- B- 1/9

12/24/11 Hansen GP- 4F- 53:00- B- 91/93

12/24/11 Hello Prince CRC- 4F- 50:20- B- 59/120

12/24/11Twelve Hundred HAW- 5F- 1.02:40- B- 4/13

12/24/11Canigotoo EVT- 4F- 50:45- B- 7/81

12/24/11Shkspeare Shaliyah BEL- 4F- 50:39- B- 100/134

12/24/11Rousing Sermon SA- 4F- 48:00 H- 23/83

12/24/11 Casual Trick PMM- 5F- 59:69- B- 1/56

12/24/11 Alpha PMM- 5F- 1.01:03- B- 10/56

12/24/11 Discreet Dancer PMM- 4F- 48:88- B- 24/123

12/24/11 El Padrino PMM- 4F- 48:93- B- 27/123

12/24/11 Mr. Besilu PMM- 3F- 38:94- B- 30/37

12/24/11 Seven Lively Sins FG- 5F- 1.02:00- B- 21/70

12/24/11 Tarpy's Goal GP -5F- 1.01:50- B- 30/69

12/24/11 Indian Ambush GP- 3F- 37:80- B- 13/23

12/24/11 Seeker FG- 4F- 53:40- B- 96/103

12/25/11 Hierro SA- 6F- 1.12:20- H- ¼

12/26/11 Gold Megillah PMM- 5F- 1.02:78- B- 4/11

12/26/11 Optimizer OP- 5F- 1.01:40- B- 1/10

12/26/11 Ancient Rome PMM- 4F- 48:24- B- 1/2

12/26/11 Coalition BEL- 4F- 49:56- B- 9/16

12/27/11 Prospective PMM- 4F- 49:85- B- 6/10

12/27/11 King Kid GP- 5F- 1.00:60- B-3/16

12/27/11 How Do I Win BEL- 4F- 49:34- B- 10/35

12/27/11 Thursby PMM- 4F- 52:90- B- 4/7

12/27/11 Longview Drive SA- 6F- 1.13:80- H- 5/10

12/27/11 Empire Way HOL- 4F- 47:60- H- 3/11

12/27/11 Sweet Swap SA- 5F- 58:40- H- 1/40

Speed Figures

Top winning 2yo BRIS figs last week: Thunder Moccasin-100; Fear the Heat-91; Devoted Wildcat-88; Report Card-88; Copus-87; News Pending-87.

Winning 2yo Beyers last week: Thunder Moccasin-97; Fear the Heat-84; Devoted Wildcat-69; Report Card-75; Copus-68; News Pending-75.

*Source: DerbyContenders Twitter

Notes and bits from Twitter:

-Ian Wilkes on his top prospects: “Motor City got a break after the Iroquois and he’s just come back into training,” said Wilkes. “I haven’t planned on anything for him yet, but he should be ready sometime around the end of February. Timely Tally, on the other hand, will be done for a while. He has a tendon issue. It’s not career-threatening, but I’m trying to work out now how much time I’ll have to give him.” (DRF)

-Liaison and Rousing Sermon, one-two finishers in CashCall, likely for Robert Lewis on Feb. 4. Secret Circle likely for Sham Jan. 7. (DRF)

*Info from J.J. Hysell Trifectabox on Twitter

Sections

Buzz builds for big weekend of Kentucky Derby preps// Gotham looks crowded// more…

Southwest may split in two, shippers arrive// Bodemeister aiming for stakes// Ten to vie in El Camino// Updated future odds

Thunder Moccasin wins Hutcheson easily, stretch-out unlikely// Hansen dodges competition// Baffert has another contender in Bodemeister

Fed Biz could be the real deal// Classics unlikely for Thunder Moccasin// Rough trip for Stat's comeback

Week In Review and Notable Performer 12/21 - 12/27

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