Creative Cause, Mark Valeski go quick in final moves// 3 others breeze// Monday notes, sights, and sounds from the backside

Kentucky Derby contender Mark Valeski with trainer Larry Jones- Photo: CTD

Happy Derby week! With 5 days to go until the Run For The Roses the buzz and drama along the backstretch is amping up. A majority of the likely Derby field has now settled into the stable areas.  On Monday, five contenders put in their final works ahead of Saturday’s race, with the most drama occurring around the barn of Larry Jones.  The trainer is still undecided on whether to enter Mark Valeski and will not make the final decision until Wednesday morning when he gets the opportunity to take the colt for a spin around Churchill. Mark Valeski had the bullet move Monday going 5-furlongs, but apparently his gallop out was virtually non-existent.  According to Jones that’s par for the course// Creative Cause flew through a quick 4-furlongs. He was visibly sweating, but seemed eager to go on// Bob Baffert was extremely pleased with Liaison’s first breeze on the Churchill Downs surface and said it was his best work since just before the CashCall Futurity (G1) win in December. DRF’s Mike Welsch wasn’t over the moon with the work from his 6^th floor view, and said it was merely average// Steve Asmussen’s pair Sabercat and Daddy Nose Best breezed earlier in the day, with the latter getting special mention from Welsch.  For videos and reports from today’s works see below// Daddy Long Legs apparently drilled Sunday at Ballydoyle in Ireland.  Trainer Aidan O’Brien called it “routine” which doesn’t give us much compared to the daily analysis we get on the Churchill workers// Jockey Willie Martinez joked that speed ball Trinniberg will sit last in the early stages of the Derby before making his big move.  In all seriousness, he did mention they don’t have to be on the lead due to the horse’s tactical speed// Doug O’Neill seemed excited to be back for the Derby. It doesn’t hurt that he trains Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner I’ll Have Another, who made a great appearance on the track. O’Neill had to answer quite a few questions about the shockwave therapy the colt recently underwent.  The trainer actually brought a chiropractor along for the trip to Kentucky, and he was getting as much attention from the press as the trainer// An always intriguing read is Kerry Thomas’ assessment of contenders emotional conformation profiles.  The emotional profile basically tells you how a horse responds among a herd. Last year he pegged Derby winner Animal Kingdom and favorite Dialed In as having nearly perfect profiles.  This year he claims there are 8 that fit the profile in 2012, with Union Rags, I’ll Have Another, and Went the Day Well on top// I can’t pinpoint it exactly, but it’s always amusing to see Mine That Bird’s trainer Chip Wooley hanging around on the backside on Derby week.  The trainer seems to not have a care in the world and clearly enjoys the attention. He sides with Take Charge Indy this year, but thinks Bodemeister is the one to beat// more…

Kentucky Derby Contender Page

Includes pedigree chart, dosage, TrueNicks, PPs, Best Beyer/BRIS, and race replays

Works

Creative Cause- CD- 4F- 47:80- B- 3/58

Liaison- CD- 5F- 1.00:80- B- 7/28

Mark Valeski- CD- 5F- 1.00:20- B- 1/28

Sabercat- CD- 4F- 48:40- B- 10/58

Daddy Nose Best CD- 4F- 49:40- B- 29/58

Workout Reports

Kentucky Derby Workouts [with Mike Welsch video] (DRF)

Kentucky Derby update with Jill Byrne [video] (Churchill Downs)

Quintet turns in final Kentucky Derby breezes (TTimes)

Mark Valeski: Courier Journal

Sabercat and Daddy Nose Best: Bloodhorse / DRF / TTimes

Liaison: Bloodhorse / TTimes

Creative Cause: Bloodhorse

Daddy Long Legs in final drill, will ship Tuesday (Bloodhorse)

Backstretch videos:

Kentucky Derby News and Opinion

Kentucky Derby barn notes 4/30 (Churchill Downs)

Kentucky Derby news minute 4/30 [video] (Bloodhorse)

Jones undecided on starting Mark Valeski (TTimes)

Speedster might not be good Kentucky Derby fit (DRF)

Interview with Trinniberg jockey Willie Martinez [video] (Courier Journal)

Bubble horse Optimizer must wait for Jones to decide whether to run Mark Valeski (DRF)

Derby hopeful Trinniberg full of surprises (Bloodhorse)

Lack of preparation could compromise Trinniberg’s future (Daily Racing News)

Wet weather alters schedule for Take Charge Indy, Pletcher horses (DRF)

Union Rags playful on Monday visit to Churchill Downs track (DRF)

Haskin’s Derby trail: Early observations (Bloodhorse)

Long time partners finally get a Derby horse in Creative Cause (DRF)

Keeping up with the Joneses [with video] (Courier Journal)

Steve Crist answers your Kentucky Derby handicapping questions (DRF)

Profile: I’ll Have Another (Courier Journal)

Thomas on horses (Kentucky Confidential)

Bob Baffert is alive and kicking, just like his horses (The News Tribune)

Will the real Kentucky Derby favorite please stand up? (Sporting News)

Post position will determine preliminary favorite (SB Nation)

The jockey factor (Kentucky Confidential)

Interview with owner Barry Irwin [video] (Bloodhorse)

Went the Day Well brings international flavor to the Kentucky Derby (Forbes Online)

Starting at the beginning to examine the top contenders (NY Times)

The best betting race of the year (SB Nation)

Romans sentimental favorite with Dullahan (USA Today)

Wooley rooting for Take Charge Indy, but picking Bodemeister (DRF)

Bodemeister feels at home at track (Courier Journal)

8 hours of Derby coverage on NBC networks (Bloodhorse)

Helzberg Diamonds signs jockey on Derby favorite (The Sacramento Bee)

Thundering home (Kentucky Confidential)

A Derby won, a Derby lost (ESPN)

Buzz builds after Daddy Nose Best workout// 5 other contenders breeze//Dominguez chooses Hansen over Alpha

The process trainers and jockeys go through in figuring out riding assignments for Kentucky Derby contenders is always intriguing.  Even when explanations are given, oftentimes experts and fans have their own opinions on what really went down. On Monday it was announced Ramon Dominguez chose Hansen over Alpha. The reason given by Dominguez’s agent was that Hansen is proven at Churchill Downs based on his victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), a race in which Alpha finished 7^th.  Seems logical enough, however earlier Monday it was reported Alpha took a somewhat surprising day off from the track.  His “strong gallop” from Sunday is now called a “work day” by assistant trainer Art Magnusun meaning Alpha will probably not breeze for the rest of the week and only have one official move before the Derby.  Ever since it was reported Alpha took a few days off to recover from an infection following the Wood Memorial you get the growing feeling he might not make it to Kentucky at all. Even if he does enter the Derby gate, you can’t blame Dominguez for doubting the colt’s fitness.  Alpha’s trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said they tried to secure Rafael Bejarano for the mount Monday but Bejarano already committed to ride El Padrino for Todd Pletcher//

There are always a few standout workers at Churchill Downs just before the Derby that turn a one-time sleeper into a backside darling.  This year it could be Daddy Nose Best, who went an extended 6 furlongs under Garret Gomez beneath the Twin Spires.  According to DRF’s Mike Welsch, Daddy Nose Best was asked for a stiff move and appears to be  “peaking at the right time”// Steve Asmussen sent two other contenders for official works, including recently acquired Isn’t He Clever who worked a slow 4 furlongs.  Isn’t He Clever, along with another Monday worker Optimizer, current sit at #21 and #22 on the graded earnings list and need a few more defections to make the Derby.  Asmussen mentioned the Preakness or Woody Stephens is more likely for Isn’t He Clever, but no final decision has been made.   Asmussen’s other contender Sabercat was not asked for a lot Monday morning as the trainer thinks the recent Arkansas Derby (G1) did a lot for the colt’s fitness// Mark Valeski breezed a quick 5 furlongs with Rosie Napravnik aboard. Welsch said it appeared Mark Valeski liked the track, but his gallop out was a little discouraging.  While most of Monday’s key workouts occurred at Churchill Downs, Trinniberg did go 6 furlongs at Calder in 1.15:40. Official times, videos and workout reports for Monday can be viewed below//

Coolmore’s Daddy Long Legs was confirmed for the Kentucky Derby Monday as expected. He will ship into Louisville early next week.  Colm O’Donoghue retains the mount on the son of Scat Daddy. Anyone looking for an angle to back Daddy Long Legs in the Derby, aside from his recent UAE Derby (G2) victory in Dubai, can point to the fact O’Donoghue did not ride the colt in his dismal 12^th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Churchill// more…

Works

Daddy Nose Best- CD- 6F- 1.14:00- B- 1/2

Isn't He Clever- CD- 4F- 51:60- B- 36/45

Optimizer- CD- 4F- 48:60- B- 6/45

Mark Valeski- CD- 5F- 59:60- B- 2/31

Sabercat- CD- 5F- 1.02:80- B- 19/31

Trinniberg- CRC- 6F- 1.15:40- B- 1/1

Workout Videos

Optimizer video (Churchill Downs)

Mark Valeski video (Churchill Downs)

Sabercat video (Churchill Downs)

Workout Reports

Daddy Nose Best peaking at right time & Derby Clocker 4/23 [video] (DRF)

Mark Valeski works sharp 5 furlongs for Derby [also Optimizer, Trinniberg, Isn’t He Clever (Bloodhorse)

Asmussen pair work for Kentucky Derby (Bloodhorse)

Asmussen trio among five Derby contenders to breeze Monday at Churchill (TTimes)

Morning Training with 12 days to go (Courier Journal)

Kentucky Derby News and Opinion

Kentucky Derby barn notes 4/23 (Churchill Downs)

Dominguez to ride Hansen (DRF)

Dominguez on Hansen, Bejarano on El Padrino (Brisnet)

Daddy Long Legs confirmed for Derby (Bloodhorse)

It’s 12 days until Run for the Roses. Where is your Derby horse? (In The Money Blog)

Trinniberg to play rabbit in full Kentucky Derby field (NY Post)

Hansen says namesake will dazzle in Kentucky Derby (NY Post)

Dr. Hansen pledges funds for Thorofan (Bloodhorse)

Bodemeiser hails from home of Sir Barton (Bloodhorse)

Best of juvenile boosts field (Courier Journal)

Coverage of every horse and interview (Behind the Scenes)

2012 Kentucky Derby field coming into focus (DRF)

Kentucky Derby 2012: Picking the winner (Bleacher Report)

Kentucky Derby contenders at a glance (Churchill Downs)

An early look at the Kentucky Derby field (UPI)

Kentucky Derby: U.K/U.S. odds comparisons (And Down The Stretch They Come)
Lexington winner could be sold (Miami Herald)

Unique 2012 Kentucky Derby hashtag trends (Yahoo!)

Classic Equine offering Triple Crown contest (Bloodhorse)

Unlimited 2012 Kentucky Derby tickets? (Yahoo!)

Mary J. Blige to sing National Anthem at Kentucky Derby (Churchill Downs)

Rankings

Haskin’s Derby Dozen 4/23 (Bloodhorse)

Triple Crown poll 4/23 (TTimes)

News and Quotes from Twitter

After a strong gallop Sun a.m. at Belmont, Alpha just walks shed Monday. "We're treating yesterday like a work day," said asst Art Magnuson.- David Grening DRF

As of today, 3 of top 20 Derby horses need a rider: Alpha or Hansen (depending on Dominguez pick), El Padrino, Rousing Sermon- Jay Privman DRF

Agent Steve Rushing confirms that Ramon Dominguez will ride Hansen in Kentucky Derby. David Grening DRF

Rafael Bejarano will ride El Padrino in the Kentucky Derby, according to trainer Todd Pletcher.- Jay Privman

Names on bottom of I'll Have Another's pedigree: Pleasant Colony, Nijinsky, Stage Door Johnny, Sea-Bird. That's 1 1/4 mile firepower.- Marcus Hersch DRF

Weekend Recap: Thoughts on Ark. Derby & Blue Grass// Roundup of Derby news, workouts, jockey assignments

The final pieces are coming together for the 138^th Kentucky Derby.  With one prep remaining that could affect one or two contenders on the bubble of the graded earnings list, we have a very good idea of who will be in the starting gate May 5^th.  For the most part there is a lot of parity among the accomplished cast in terms of pedigree, class, and speed figures.  As many as 7 horses could be in the sub 10-1 range on the tote board come post time.

Arkansas Derby

Some felt Bodemeister was an undeserved morning line favorite in the Arkansas Derby (G1) having no stakes wins on his resume, especially compared to the other Bob Baffert entry Secret Circle who won the prior two graded Derby prep races at Oaklawn.  Nonetheless, he was still the betting favorite when the gates opened and he did not disappoint his backers. With a perfect pacesetting trip by Mike Smith, Bodemeister dealt with little pressure the entire way.  The final time was 1:48.71, over a second faster than the previous race the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap for older horses.  Bodemeister’s Beyer speed figure came back 105, which is highest among likely Derby starters.

All sounds good so far, but of course there are doubters and with good reason.  With the Kentucky Derby only three weeks away the obvious question is whether there is anything left in the tank for Bodemeister?  Oftentimes dominating efforts like this are followed up with a “bounce”, especially in the 10-furlong Derby.  I was immediately reminded of Sinister Minister in 2006, who dominated the Blue Grass Stakes by 12 ¾ lengths only to finish 16^th in the Derby three weeks later.  It is unfair to automatically assume that will happen in 2012 (and to compare him to an inferior horse), but the prevalence of bounces combined with the uniqueness of a 20 horse field running 1 1/4 miles make it a distinct possibility.

Of even more concern for Bodemeister in the Derby could be trip and pace.  In the Arkansas Derby he started from the far outside post and had an easy uncontested path to the front and eventually on the rail.  In the San Felipe (G2) in March, a race he was beaten by Creative Cause, Bodemeister did sit just off the pacesetter but was still in the clear most of the way. What will he do in a crowd or even possibly behind horses?  There was no early pressure up front Saturday, but you can imagine Hansen and several others will change that at Churchill Downs.  

At the top of the stretch of the Arkansas Derby it appeared Secret Circle could pass the winner, but Bodemeister had another gear.  Secret Circle is still Derby bound and will ship to Churchill Downs Monday with Bodemeister.  3^rd place finisher Sabercat impressed his trainer Steve Asmussen and will also move onto Kentucky via the same flight.

Blue Grass Stakes

Trainer Dale Romans struggled to wipe the smile off of his face Saturday following Dullahan’s victory over Hansen in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland.  The Louisville native has made no bones about his desire to win the signature hometown race, and Dullahan is sure to enter the Derby gate at the lowest odds of any previous Romans starter.  It doesn’t hurt that the colt is a closer, comfortable among a crowd and splitting horses.  Kent Desormeaux earned his share of the winner’s check for his initial patience, needlework through traffic, and spurring the furious late charge down the stretch.  It will take that kind of a ride and a little luck in three weeks, but Desormeaux has been there before.  It’s also encouraging that Dullahan put in a valiant effort on the Churchill strip last November in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), where he finished 4^th after a troubled start.

Hansen fell short of a Blue Grass victory and Derby favoritism by just 1 3/4 lengths.  Unlike the Gotham Stakes (G3), where he showed the ability to rate behind a pacesetter, he was up to his old tricks Saturday by bolting to the front.  The early fractions were on the quick side for a 1 1/8 mile race and proved to take just enough out of Hansen to relinquish the lead in the final strides.  It will be interesting to see how many bettors jump off the Hansen bandwagon.  The 2-year-old champion has always been in the money, proven to be a fighter, and shown an affinity for Churchill Downs, where he beat many of the same foes he will face Derby Day.  There were a lot of shenanigans regarding the spray painting of Hansen’s tail, all pretty much meant to divert attention away from the race and towards an owner. If interested to hear more you can find links to stories below.

Lots of notable Derby news Sunday. Aidan O’Brien will only ship Daddy Long Legs to Churchill Downs for the Derby, leaving behind Wrote who is 6^th on the graded earnings list.  Trinniberg is also not likely for the Derby.  These two defections would open up slots for Rousing Sermon and Mark Valeski, if they can retain their ranking on the list following Saturday’s Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland// Prospective, winner of the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and 6^th in Saturday’s Blue Grass is “on the fence” for the Derby, which is a surprise// El Padrino had his first workout since a 4^th place finish in the Florida Derby (G1). Todd Pletcher will train the colt as if he’s going to the Derby, but will need probably one or two more defections// In not-so-surprising news, Mike Smith was confirmed to ride Bodemeister, which means he de-committed from riding Daddy Nose Best.  Garrett Gomez was named as the new jockey for Daddy Nose Best and his agent thinks they have a live longshot// more…

Arkansas Derby (G1)

Winner: Bodemeister

Jockey: Mike Smith

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Chart: Equibase chart

Replay: YouTube

Beyer: 105 (preliminary)

Wrap-up Articles: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet / TTimes / AP

Blue Grass Stakes (G1)

Winner: Dullahan

Jockey: Kent Desormeaux

Trainer: Dale Romans

Chart: Equibase chart

Replay: YouTube

Beyer: 98 (preliminary)

Wrap-up Articles: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet / TTimes / USA Today / Courier Journal / Post-race news conference

Graded Earnings

Official List Updated 4/14 (Churchill Downs)

Kentucky Derby News and Opinion

Sunday

O’Brien to ship Daddy Long Legs, but not Wrote (Brisnet)

Trinniberg likely to pass Kentucky Derby (Bloodhorse)

Smith stays on Bodemeister, Gomez on Daddy (Bloodhorse)

El Padrino preparing as if he will make Derby field (DRF)

Kentucky Derby prospect Union Rags arrives from Florida (DRF)

Romans gives Dullahan his nod as favorite for Kentucky Derby (DRF)

D’oh-ahan (TwinSpires Blog)

Dullahan’s win deepens Derby mystery (Lexington Herald Leader)

Top 3 Blue Grass horses return to Louisville (Bloodhorse)

Top finishers in Arkansas Derby heading to KY (Bloodhorse)

Initial thoughts on the Ark. Derby, Blue Grass (DRF Blog)

Kentucky Derby 2012 field definitely is deep (Courier Journal)

We have 3 weeks to sort out Kentucky Derby possibilities (The Bellingham Herald)

Take Charge Indy: Chicago’s Derby hope (ChicagoNow Blog)

Hansen disappointed horse’s tail not blue (Bloodhorse)

Blue tails and lasix: Good intentions, poor execution (Hansen Blog via Courier Journal)

Saturday

Dullahan and Hansen- Tale of the Trakus tape (And Down They Stretch They Come)

A tale of two tail colors for Hansen (Bloodhorse)

Went the Day Well works at Keeneland (Bloodhorse)

Went the Day Well to follow Animal Kingdom’s path (Miami Herald)

Lexington makeup could hinge on other outcomes (The Downey Profile)

For Baffert, Derby victory would be best medicine (NY Times)

Works

Sunday

Rousing Sermon HOL- 5F- 1.00:00- H- 6/60

Castaway SA- 5F- 1.01:20- H- 28/63

El Padrino PMM- 4F- 49:10- B- 4/12

Saturday

Went the Day Well- KEE- 5F- 1.02:00- B- 32/43

Reveron- CRC- 1M- 1.43:60- B- 1/2

Bourbon Courage- CD- 6F- 1.16:00- B- 2/3

Notes and bits from web and Twitter:

#KyDerby runners I'd consider "possible": Wrote, Secret Circle & Liaison. Unlikely but not ruled out yet: Trinniberg & Drill.- DerbyMedia via Twitter

“Ramon Dominguez says he hasn't decided on Derby horse (Alpha or Hansen). Will sit with agent soon.”- Barry Abrams via Twitter

“Hansen lost the Blue Grass and very likely his jockey as well. I'll be shocked if Ramon Dominguez doesn't opt for Alpha in the KDerby.”- Randy Moss via Twitter

Not scared of Union Rags? Florida Derby gets 9// Dullahan back on schedule// Creative Cause works// Sabercat will try again

Proximity and convenience must have trumped competition for the connections of most contenders in Saturday’s Florida Derby (G1).  The field was expected to number seven, but swelled to nine when entries closed Wednesday.  That’s one more than last Sunday’s Sunland Derby (G3), which featured only two Grade 3 winners. The Florida Derby on the other hand features Grade 1 winner and early Kentucky Derby favorite Union Rags as well as Grade 2 winner El Padrino, who is considered a top 5 prospect in most rankings.  Those two will undoubtedly take the lion’s share of wagering seeing as the other seven possess no graded victories and inferior résumés. Full entries, PPs, and preview articles can be found below// Speaking of Union Rags, he’s favored in the final Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool at 3-1 followed by ‘all others’ and Hansen at 6-1.  There are six new wagering interests including recent Derby trail winners and filly On Fire Baby//  On Fire Baby’s next race remains undecided, but trainer Gary Hartlage could enter her in both the Fantasy Stakes (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1) before deciding which is the better fit.  It still seems as if the First Saturday in May is the long-term goal// There were rumors earlier in the week that something was amiss with Dullahan.  Wednesday the Daily Racing Form reported the colt did pop a splint, but is recovered and still on target for the Blue Grass (G1)// Tom Amoss will put blinkers on Shared Property for the Louisiana Derby (G1) due to the speed bias at the Fair Grounds// Lucky Chappy was chippy during training in Dubai for the UAE Derby (G2) when he threw his exercise rider.  Both parties seem to be ok// Creative Cause worked 6-furlongs at Hollywood Park in preparation for the Santa Anita Derby (G1)// more…

Florida Derby

Entries

PPs (look for Saturday 3/31 El Padrino)

Preview Articles: Gulfstream Park / Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet / TTimes

Articles

Matz feels Union Rags has point to prove (Bloodhorse)

Union Rags sitting on big one in Florida Derby (DRF)

Matz tried to buy El Padrino (The Downey Profile)

Reveron camp wants him close to home- for now (The Downey Profile)

Union Rags favored in final Kentucky Derby Futures Pool (Brisnet)

Wednesday’s UAE Derby notes (The Downey Profile)

Lucky Chappy drops rider during UAE Derby training session (TTimes)

Dullahan recuperates in time to make Blue Grass (DRF)

Comisky’s Humor goes from $1200 purchase to $1 Million Louisiana Derby (Sports Nola)

Finnegan’s Wake starts to focus for Louisiana Derby (DRF)

Sabercat working toward Arkansas Derby (Bloodhorse)

Baffert kept in loop as stable moves ahead (DRF)

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile ‘Big 3’ make 2012 classics trail exciting (TTimes)

Options abound for On Fire Baby (Bloodhorse)

3-year-olds to watch 3/28 (In The Money Blog)

Who’s hot, who’s not 3/28 (DRF)

Kentucky Derby Report 3/29 (Brisnet)

Point/Counterpoint: Alpha vs. Bodemeister (Horseracing Nation)

Went the Day Well joins Derby chase (Fox Sports)

Taking a look at the top 10 on the Derby earnings list (Bleacher Report)

Rankings

Top 20 (DRF)

Works

Brother Francis SA- 5F- 59:00- H- 3/50

Creative Cause HOL- 6F- 1.12:80- H- 2/6

Notes and bits from web and Twitter:

“Arm Force out of La. Derby. Trainer Harty looking for better spot. That leaves 13 & removes a potential pace player”- DRFHersch via Twitter

“Teeth Of The Dog likely headed to Illinois Derby next. Wood & KEE preps alternatives”- DerbyContenders via Twitter

“Alpha will work Friday at Palm Meadows, ship to NY that afternoon, runs in Wood. Dominguez rides -- unless Hansen shows up”- Jav Privman via Twitter

Rebel draws 13, led by Secret Circle and Sabercat// Motor City off trail// Byrne confident with Take Charge Indy

A not-so-quite full field will line up for Saturday’s Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Saturday.  Southwest (G3) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint winner Secret Circle and Delta Jackpot (G3) winner Sabercat undoubtedly lead the field. Aside from those two, there are challengers that must be respected including; Scatman who gave Secret Circle everything he could handle in the Southwest; Adirondack King who ran longer than most in his his 3^rd place finish in the Southwest; Jake Mo who bounced back to form with a 2^nd place finish in the other division of the Southwest; and allowance winners Atigun and Najjaar who both have won at the Rebel distance and probably prefer going even farther.  Preview articles and link to PPs can be found below// Motor City is officially off the Derby Trail.  Trainer Ian Wilkes says the Iroquois (G3) winner is too far behind in preparation. Wilkes’s other charge Neck n’ Neck is possible for the Florida Derby (G1)// Speaking of the Florida Derby, trainer Patrick Byrne is still high on his prospect Take Charge Indy.  He has no regrets with scratching from the Tampa Derby (G2) and thinks the added distance will help// Maiden winner and Zayat Stables owned Paynter will point for the Illinois Derby (G2) as a hopeful stepping stone to the Kentucky Derby// A nice video interview below with Mark Taylor of Taylor Made Farm on Creative Cause…

Rebel (G2)

Preview Articles: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet / TTimes / Oaklawn Barn Notes 3/15

PPs: Click here (look for 3/17 Secret Circle)

Picks: That Handicapping Show (Bloodhorse) / Late mover could win runnin’ Rebel (The Downey Profile)

Articles

Oaklawn trainer Lauer dreams big with Rebel contender Scatman (DRF)

Kentucky Derby hopefuls showing separation (Sports Network)

Motor City off Derby Trail; Neck n’ Neck could stay (The Downey Profile)

Byrne ‘looking forward’ to Florida Derby with Take Charge Indy (Brisnet)

Raconteur, Hakama land in softer spot for Private Terms Stakes (DRF)

Paynter to make next stop in Illinois Derby (Bloodhorse)

Creative Cause interview with Mark Taylor of Talor Made Farm [video] (YouTube)

Works

Majestic Stride OP- 5F- 1.04:60- B- 23/23

Bourbon Courage FG- 4F- 48:20- B- 6/52

Right to Vote PMM- 5F- 1.01:65 B- 1/4

Sabercat Kentucky Derby bound regardless// Lucky Chappy confirmed for UAE Derby// Spring Hill Farm off Trail

Injury reports seem to come in bunches along this year’s road to the roses.  Tuesday it was revealed Spring Hill Farm will have surgery for a knee fracture.  The Todd Pletcher trained colt was the favorite in last Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby (G2), but finished a troubled fourth after hitting the gate at the start- a misstep that actually caused the injury.  He would have had an uphill battle getting earnings for the Kentucky Derby, but more concerning is the possibility his racing career is over// Sabercat’s owner Ron Winchell said even if his horse disappoints in the next two preps the Kentucky Derby is still in the cards.  It’s hard to blame him given the prestige, two million dollar purse, recent upsets, and fact the race is a completely different animal all together// A nice story on Union Rags’ various journeys through sale rings and his similarities with 2008 Derby winner Big Brown in terms of pinhooker and ownership groups// It was confirmed that grass and synthetic stakes-placed runner Lucky Chappy will fly to Dubai for the U.A.E Derby (G2). That path to Kentucky has had little success in the past but he is in the same capable hands as last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom…

Articles

Spring Hill Farm out with knee fracture (Bloodhorse)

Sabercat ready to start campaign for Winchells, Asmussen (DRF)

Team Valor’s Lucky Chappy to make Dubai trip (TTimes)

Stakes could be next for Cigar Street (DRF)

Union Rags, Big Brown two of a kind (Bloodhorse)

Rankings

Paulick Derby Index 3/13 (Paulick Report)

Down and Derby- Sweet 16 (Zipse at the Track)

Works

Optimizer- OP- 3F- 36:20- B- 1/3

Top Weekly Speed Figures*

Top winning 3yo Beyers last week: Creative Cause-102; Trinniberg-99; Hardened Wildcat-98; Quiet Eyes-86; Cigar Street-99.

Top winning 3yo BRIS figs last week: Creative Cause-104; Trinniberg-103; Hardened Wildcat-102; Quiet Eyes-100; Cigar Street-99.

*Source: DerbyContenders via Twitter

Notes and bits from web and Twitter

“LUCKY CHAPPY is a 'go' for the U.A.E. Derby on March 31. Alan Garcia will retain the mount” Team Valor via Twitter

Harrington pits prospects against each other// Blingo, Rousing Sermon ready for San Felipe// Fly Lexis Fly to skip Derby// Updated Future Odds

Has the cost of transporting horses increased? Did Creative Cause perhaps not ship well to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November? Mike Harrington finally made a decision on what to do with his top two Kentucky Derby prospects: Creative Cause and Empire Way will run against each other Saturday in the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita. Harrington’s excuse of timing is a bit odd, as it will only be three weeks since Creative Cause’s last race.  The Rebel (G2) the following week seemed like an ideal choice in terms of both timing and keeping the horses separated.  As Harrington readily admits, if Creative Cause defeats Empire Way Saturday he very well could deny the latter of much needed graded stakes earnings required to make the Kentucky Derby// Creative Cause had the bullet work going 4-furlongs Tuesday at Hollywood Park.  Harrington said it was quicker than he preferred// Blingo, a gelding and son of Artie Schiller, has matured since his last effort in the CashCall Futurity (G1) in December according to John Shirreffs. The Kentucky Derby winning trainer says the San Felipe is a major test to see how Blingo takes to dirt// Jerry Hollendorfer still believes in Rousing Sermon and hopes the colt doesn’t start too far behind in the San Felipe// Delta Jackpot (G3) winner Sabercat is confirmed for the Rebel Stakes.  He was originally pointed to the San Felipe but trainer Steve Asmussen said the son of Bluegrass Cat needed another week of training// Several posts ago I mentioned the absence of any official workouts from Peruvian import Fly Lexis Fly. Tuesday it was revealed he will most likely miss the Derby and target the Belmont Stakes instead.  According to trainer Arturo Morales the quarantine process has taken too long// Updated Kentucky Derby future odds were released by Wynn Las Vegas. Gotham (G3) winner Hansen is down to 12-1, still better than Churchill Downs’ Future Wager Pool #2 that ended Sunday.  My Adonis, 2^nd in the Gotham (G3) dropped to 40-1// Speaking of Hansen, recaps and opinion keep popping up seemingly by the minute.  An interesting backhanded compliment by Ed DeRosa on the TwinSpires blog about Hansen being ideal for the second tier Summer and Fall Derbys.  I doubt Hansen’s connections have the Oklahoma Derby on their radar at this point…     

Articles

Harrington 3YOs both expected for San Felipe (Bloodhorse)

Blingo adding focus to his ability, returns in San Felipe (DRF)

Rousing Sermon will need big showing in San Felipe (DRF)

Sabercat to go in Rebel (DRF)

Fly Lexis Fly likely to skip Kentucky Derby for Belmont Stakes (TTimes)

Hansen and Union Rags: A Derby debate develops (Louisville.com)

Hansen brings hope to retired racehorses (Forbes Online)

Triple Crown Insider: Gotham recap (TwinSpires Blog)

Let’s be Frank: Will the real Hansen please stand up? (Sports Network)

Vini, vidi, vici (Hansen Blog via Courier Journal)

The horse without the blue tail, Derby 138 Top Twenty (WHAS-11 TV)

Guess who’s back? (Horseracing Insider)

Derby favorites come from the heart (ESPN)

Point/Counterpoint: Empire Way vs. Mark Valeski (Zipse at the Track/Derby Wars Blog)

Five under the radar Derby hopefuls (Bloodhorse Blog)

As Kentucky Derby rolls nearer everyone has story to share (Gaming Today)

Works

Optimizer- OP- 4F- 47:40 B- 2/17

Hierro- SA- 5F- 1.00:00- H- 5/14

Creative Cause- HOL- 4F- 46:40- H- 1/34

Kentucky Derby Future Odds

Wynn Las Vegas 3/5

Rankings

AP Top 10 (AP)

Paulick Index 3/6 (Paulick Report)

Weekly Top Speed Figures*

3yo winning Beyers last week: Hansen-95; Flashy Dresser-89; Mile High Magic-94; State of Play-83; Steve's Adventures-87.

Top 3yo winning BRIS figs last week: Hansen-108; Flashy Dresser-102; Mile High Magic-100; State of Play-96; Steve's Adventures-96

*Source: DerbyContenders via Twitter

Notes and bits from web and Twitter:

“23.20, 46.40 out 59.60 for Creative Cause. As good as he has looked in the morning this year. Hopefully he cools out the right way ...”- ClockerDH via Twitter