Kentucky Derby attention turns to early odds and big upcoming preps

The Factor arrives at Oaklawn (Photo: Oaklawn Park)

Summary:

I made a decision today to discontinue posting links to analysis and opinion on Uncle Mo’s performance in the Wood (aside from Steve Haskin’s weekly blog).  With an apparent clean bill of health and all signs pointing to him running next in the Kentucky Derby, it’s time to move on to other trail doings for the time being.  Not only are we coming up to the final weekend of major prep races, but Churchill Downs also decided to release odds this afternoon for the Kentucky Derby if it was held today.  The purpose apparently was to merely start a conversation, and within an hour it was clear mission was accomplished.  Opinions were as varied as they were for last Saturday’s prep results. Among them were that no horse in the wide-open crop should be lower than 5-1, Uncle Mo’s odds at 4-1 were way off line, and oddsmaker Mike Battaglia had generally lost his mind. I’ve pasted his odds below.

The Factor, a possible favorite in the Kentucky Derby, returned to the Oaklawn grounds today.  Two of his competitors for the Arkansas Derby, J W Blue and Archarcharch put in their final works// With the torrential downpour occurring in and around Kentucky, Blue Grass Stakes probable Swift Warrior had his scheduled work delayed until Wednesday// Dialed In, another potential favorite for the Derby, had his first work since winning the Florida Derby.  Nick Zito seemed pleased and stated the colt will only have one more serious work for the Derby, which is unorthodox, but a formula that has proven to be effective// It sounds like Astrology may be pointed to the Preakness instead of the Derby due to falling behind in training and racing// more…


Kentucky Derby odds (if held today)
The Factor (7-2); Dialed In (4-1); Uncle Mo (4-1); Soldat (10-1); Toby’s Corner (10-1); Midnight Interlude (12-1); Mucho Macho Man (12-1); Animal Kingdom (15-1); Pants On Fire (15-1); Santiva (20-1); Shackleford (20-1); Comma to the Top (30-1); Jaycito (30-1); Stay Thirsty (30-1); Astrology (50-1); Decisive Moment (50-1); J P’s Gusto (50-1); Master of Hounds (50-1); Twice the Appeal (50-1);and Watch Me Go (50-1)- Mike Battaglia

Uncle Mo faces flight delay, possible wet track in Wood// Astrology crawls in work// Dosage index explained and debated

Summary:

More notable than Uncle Mo’s travel hiccup Tuesday is that storms are forecast again for Saturday, which would force the early Kentucky Derby favorite to run on his first wet track.  It may prove telling as the Derby seems to always have a 50/50 chance of mud// You may or may not know much about the dosage index, but it’s perceived importance in measuring Derby potential in a horse seems to diminish more each year.  Nonetheless, Scott Jagow, a student at the University of Louisville Equine program, does a fine job explaining how the number is derived// Astrology, who cracked the CTD Top 5, worked a slow 4 furlongs in 51:80.  Silver Medallion, an anticipated starter in Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby worked more than 3 seconds faster in the same breezing fashion. While that race will be his first on dirt, he apparently has been responding well to it in the morning//more…

3 big preps, 0 to get excited about: Pants On Fire and Animal Kingdom guaranteed for Derby gate and long odds// Sweet Ducky disappoints

Summary:

While the finish of the Louisiana Derby was exciting, the race as a whole was not impressive.  Pants On Fire tracked average fractions and fought on to win. Mucho Macho Man, who apparently lost a shoe, was in a perfect spot to pounce.  Elite Alex, who most everyone thinks ran the best race by closing like a freight train, probably won’t have the earnings to make the Derby gate unless his connections decide to squeeze him into a late prep. The most noteworthy accomplishment came from the winning jockey, Rosie Napravnik, who was the first woman jockey to win the Louisiana Derby in 98 years and could be the first to win the big one.  Second place Nehro is headed for the Arkansas Derby// In the interesting undercard allowance, much-hyped Bind couldn’t hold off Prime Cut.  The final time was less than a quarter second off the track record// As far as chasing the Derby goes, the lone contender in the UAE Derby, Sweet Ducky finished second-to-last.  No word from his trainer, but it looks like a trip back to the States will be ruled out// Animal Kingdom took the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes.  The son of Leroidesanimaux is probably another not to get too excited about for May 7^th.  He seems best suited for turf/poly over true dirt.  Favorite Positive Response had no response by finishing 8^th// Swift Warrior wins the undercard Rushaway Stakes at Turfway. He’s now headed for the Bluegrass Stakes. All this poly, all this mediocrity… the Florida Derby can’t come soon enough.