Chasing The Derby: Najjaar

"John Sadler says if Keeneland gives strong assurances Blue Grass won't overfill, Holy Candy likely will scratch from SA Derby to run there"- Jennie Rees via Twitter

Rebel draws 13, led by Secret Circle and Sabercat// Motor City off trail// Byrne confident with Take Charge Indy

A not-so-quite full field will line up for Saturday’s Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Saturday. Southwest (G3) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint winner Secret Circle and Delta Jackpot (G3) winner Sabercat undoubtedly lead the field. Aside from those two, there are challengers that must be respected including; Scatman who gave Secret Circle everything he could handle in the Southwest; Adirondack King who ran longer than most in his his 3^rd place finish in the Southwest; Jake Mo who bounced back to form with a 2^nd place finish in the other division of the Southwest; and allowance winners Atigun and Najjaar who both have won at the Rebel distance and probably prefer going even farther. Preview articles and link to PPs can be found below// Motor City is officially off the Derby Trail. Trainer Ian Wilkes says the Iroquois (G3) winner is too far behind in preparation. Wilkes’s other charge Neck n’ Neck is possible for the Florida Derby (G1)// Speaking of the Florida Derby, trainer Patrick Byrne is still high on his prospect Take Charge Indy. He has no regrets with scratching from the Tampa Derby (G2) and thinks the added distance will help// Maiden winner and Zayat Stables owned Paynter will point for the Illinois Derby (G2) as a hopeful stepping stone to the Kentucky Derby// A nice video interview below with Mark Taylor of Taylor Made Farm on Creative Cause…

Rebel (G2)

Preview Articles: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet / TTimes / Oaklawn Barn Notes 3/15

PPs: Click here (look for 3/17 Secret Circle)

Picks: That Handicapping Show (Bloodhorse) / Late mover could win runnin’ Rebel (The Downey Profile)

Articles

Oaklawn trainer Lauer dreams big with Rebel contender Scatman (DRF)

Kentucky Derby hopefuls showing separation (Sports Network)

Motor City off Derby Trail; Neck n’ Neck could stay (The Downey Profile)

Byrne ‘looking forward’ to Florida Derby with Take Charge Indy (Brisnet)

Raconteur, Hakama land in softer spot for Private Terms Stakes (DRF)

Paynter to make next stop in Illinois Derby (Bloodhorse)

Creative Cause interview with Mark Taylor of Talor Made Farm [video] (YouTube)

Works

Majestic Stride OP- 5F- 1.04:60- B- 23/23

Bourbon Courage FG- 4F- 48:20- B- 6/52

Right to Vote PMM- 5F- 1.01:65 B- 1/4

Creative Cause & Empire Way to stay separated// Longview Drive ready for Southwest// No rushing Sir Bond

Trainer Mike Harrington discusses some possible chess moves with his two top Kentucky Derby Contenders. After Sunday’s San Vicente (G2), Creative Cause is likely to ship to Arkansas for the Rebel (G2) in order to stay away from Empire Way and his quest to accumulate Graded Earnings in the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita. First things first however, Harrington is hoping Creative Cause shows some progression from his juvenile campaign in the San Vicente. He reiterated that the horse does not necessarily have to win, especially considering he has enough in Graded Earnings for the Derby// With possibly 21 interests in the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn, it’s not surprising that workouts have occurred all throughout the week, even on the Friday before Monday’s race. Longview Drive, 3^rd in both the Sham (G3) and Delta Jackpot (G3), lit up the track with a 4-furlong move in 48:20. Najjaar also worked at Oaklawn in what appears on paper to be a good move, but trainer Danny Peitz decided he’ll skip the Southwest and look for a longer race seeing as the son of Jazil likes to drop far back in the early going. Apprehender, a quick maiden winner at Oaklawn who earned a 98 Beyer speed figure, could be on the outside looking in if the Southwest does not split into two divisions. He sits towards the bottom of contender earnings and will have to await the draw Saturday. If he does race, it will be without blinkers, which he wore in his debut// Further south and east, Sam F. Davis (G3) winner Battle Hardened worked a modest 4-panels at Palm Meadows. He is still likely for the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) on March 10// Some good fact-finding by Dick Downey reveals Irish trainer Aiden O’Brien is unlikely to point Wrote, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) and #4 on the Graded Earnings list, to the Kentucky Derby// Yet another impressive maiden winner made himself known Thursday. Sir Bond dominated in his fourth career start at the Fair Grounds, where he covered the 1 1/16 miles in 1.45:12 to earn a 91 Beyer figure. Trainer Neil Howard said he would like to move ahead slowly with the colt and look for an allowance for his next race.

For complete coverage on Saturday’s El Camino Real Derby and Sunday’s San Vicente check out the race page here

Articles

CA Derby and Oaks Champs vie in El Camino Real Derby (Iron Maidens Thoroughbred Blog)

Kentucky Derby hopefuls get Bay Area showcase (The Sacramento Bee)

San Vicente merely a starting point for Creative Cause (DRF)

West Coast’s Creative Cause begins march towards Kentucky Derby on Sunday (LA Daily News)

Creative Cause set for launch in San Vicente (TTimes)

Carava says American Act is improving (The Downey Profile)

Longview Drive sharpens for crowded Southwest (DRF)

Najjaar declared out of Southwest (The Downey Profile)

Southwest could be split into two divisions (Bloodhorse)

Sir Bond impresses with maiden win (DRF)

Baffert back in the mix (Bloodhorse Blog)

Gotham shaping up strong (DRF)

Battle Hardened breezes at Palm Meadows (Bloodhorse)

Write him off [Wrote] (The Downey Profile)

Castellano made the right call (ESPN)

Kentucky Derby bubble at $120,000 (The Brock Talk Blog)

The long and winding road (Courier Journal Hansen Blog)

Hovdey: Colorless ruling lacks common sense (DRF)

Road to the Derby- El Camino and San Vicente (Courier Journal)

Countdown to the Crown 2/17 (DRF)

Videos

Interview with Michael Matz on Union Rags (Gulfstream Park)

Derby Watch 2/17 (DRF)

Picks

The Commish’s picks- San Vicente (The Downey Profile)

Works

Battle Hardened- PMM- 4F- 49:80- B- 11/14

Howe Great- PMM- 5F- 1.06:05- B- 10/11

Longview Drive- OP- 4F- 48:20- B- 2/57

Najjaar- OP- 5F- 1.01:60- B- 2/58

Exfactor FG- 4F- 50:00- B- 33/64

Notes and bits from web and Twitter:

“Dullahan is back on the track at GP after fighting a cough that effected many on the backside ~ caught the eye jogging this AM - he grew up!”- Grade1Racing via Twitter

“John Shirreffs told me last night that he is serious considering the San Felipe for Blingo...John seems to have a lot of confidence in him”- Larry Zapeye via Twitter

“Ken McPeek told us that Atigun will likely scratch from the Southwest; has a foot issue. 90% out this AM, but we'll see how it develops”- TVGResearch via Twitter

Fed Biz could be the real deal// Classics unlikely for Thunder Moccasin// Rough trip for Stat's comeback

In general, only stakes race results generate a quick turnaround in the thoroughbred news media world. Facts, videos, charts, and analysis trickle in hours and sometimes days after the race. However, when a nearly one million dollar 3-year-old trained by Bob Baffert dominates an optional claiming race at Santa Anita three months before the Kentucky Derby, news tends to spread just as quick, if not quicker. Fed Biz, the lone CTD Contender to have only a maiden win on his resume, handled his step-up to allowance company with ease in the 3^rd race at Santa Anita. His winning margin was 5 3/4 lengths, and he covered the mile in 1.34:74. The Baffert charge, who jockey Rafael Bejarano already claimed as his “Derby horse”, will undoubtedly point to a graded stakes next time out. Consulado was behind him for the place and well clear of 3^rd place finisher Blueskiesnrainbows by 6 1/2 lengths//

Todd Pletcher admitted he’s putting Thunder Moccasin in a tough spot for his second race, the 7-furlong Hutcheson Stakes (G2). However, based on recent training and the fact the 2-3-4 finishers from his maiden score came back to win (2^nd place Panthro has won twice), he feels he has a shot. Pletcher also revealed he feels Thunder Moccasin would not excel at added distance//

In addition to Fed Biz’s race, another important allowance contest took place Thursday. Race 8 at Gulfstream marked the return of Pletcher-trained Stat, who was 2^nd to Union Rags last time out in the Saratoga Special (G2) in August. After a hop at the break and racing wide most of the way Thursday, the best Stat could finish was 4^th, but only a length-and-a-half behind the winner Maan//

Several articles on both the joy and perils of wagering on the Kentucky Derby futures// more…

Articles

Fed Biz impresses on eve of Future Wager (Brisnet)

Fed Biz dominates Santa Anita allowance field (Bloodhorse)

Fed Biz cruises to victory (DRF)

Feb Biz jumps on Triple Crown Trail with allowance win (TTimes)

Bob Baffert has another Kentucky Derby hopeful in Fed Biz (LA Times Blog)

Fed Biz impresses (Zipse At The Track Blog)

Thunder Moccasin move ‘ambitious’: Todd Pletcher (The Downey Profile)

Kinglet swoops late for UAE 2,000 Guineas win (Racing Post)

Empire Way headed to San Felipe (DRF)

Najjaar needs good week to make Southwest run (The Downey Profile)

Algorithms commences classic calculation (Bloodhorse)

Rising Stars: Alpha impresses in New York (The Saratogian)

Ever So Lucky starts outside in Hutheson Stakes (DRF)

Ever So Lucky expected to kick-off sophomore campaign in Hutcheson (TTimes)

Taking a look at potential Kentucky Derby horse Z Dager (Bleacher Report)

For those wise enough to be foolish [Future book wagering] (ESPN)

Kentucky Derby Future Wagers: Bet early, bet often (Forbes Online)

I always believed in futures (Twinspires Blog)

WinStar StableMates Fantasy Derby to open (Bloodhorse)

Video:

Robert Lewis Recap (TwinSpires)

Works

Hammers Terror- FG- 4F- 50:40- B- 20/29

Majestic Stride- OP- 7F- 1.28:00- B- 1/1

Consortium- PMM- 4F- 50:90- B- 36/43

Souper Speedy- PMM- 4F- 51:49- B- 40/43

Mr. Style- PMM- 4F- 49:88 B- 21/43

Night Tide- SA- 5F- 59:00- H- 2/29

Hutcheson Handicapper Picks

Dick’s Picks (The Downey Profile)

Notes and bits from web and Twitter:

Todd Pletcher on Discreet Dancer: bloodwork returned normal, he's doing better; will work Monday and still on track for Fountain of Youth- J.J. Hysell Trifecta Box via Twitter

Sections

McLaughlin worried about Alpha’s post in Wood// Connections for Street Life, My Adonis confident// Lukas trying to get back to Derby// Scatman, Najjaar work

Rebel draws 13, led by Secret Circle and Sabercat// Motor City off trail// Byrne confident with Take Charge Indy

Creative Cause & Empire Way to stay separated// Longview Drive ready for Southwest// No rushing Sir Bond

Fed Biz could be the real deal// Classics unlikely for Thunder Moccasin// Rough trip for Stat's comeback

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