Chasing The Derby: My Adonis

"John Sadler says if Keeneland gives strong assurances Blue Grass won't overfill, Holy Candy likely will scratch from SA Derby to run there"- Jennie Rees via Twitter

Spiral and Sunland news and picks// Bodemeister blitzes 4 panels// Features on Prospective and Stealcase

Articles

Even $800,000 can’t always buy best (DRF)

Heavy Breathing the favorite for Saturday’s Vinery Spiral Stakes (Courier Journal)

Full field for Vinery Spiral (Louisville.com)

Spiral Stakes up for grabs on Saturday (Miami Herald)

Don’t underrate Sunland and Turfway stakes as quality Derby preps (Las Vegas Review-Journal)

Bodemeister’s quick breeze far from normal (Bloodhorse)

Louisiana Derby could attract a baker’s dozen (DRF)

My Adonis, based in Monmouth, to run in Wood Memorial (New Jersey Star-Ledger)

Plans for Kentucky Derby prospects set in ‘Motion’ (Gulfstream Park)

Derby sleeper: Prospective (Bloodhorse)

Stealcase gets one more chance at Derby (Bloodhorse)

Triple Crown Insider weekend preview (TwinSpires Blog)

A look at weekend horse racing (UPI)

Countdown to the Crown week 12 (DRF)

Works

Longview Drive- HOL- 7F- 1.27:80- H- 1/4

My Adonis- BEL- 5F- 1.00:75- B- 2/20

Bodemeister- SA- 4F- 46:80- H- 1/29

Pretension- BOW- 1M- 1.41:40- H- 1/2

State of Play- FH- 5F- 1.02:00- B- 1/7

Picks

Spiral: Dick’s Picks (Downey Profile)

Rankings

Odds Shark

Harrington pits prospects against each other// Blingo, Rousing Sermon ready for San Felipe// Fly Lexis Fly to skip Derby// Updated Future Odds

Has the cost of transporting horses increased? Did Creative Cause perhaps not ship well to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November? Mike Harrington finally made a decision on what to do with his top two Kentucky Derby prospects: Creative Cause and Empire Way will run against each other Saturday in the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita. Harrington’s excuse of timing is a bit odd, as it will only be three weeks since Creative Cause’s last race. The Rebel (G2) the following week seemed like an ideal choice in terms of both timing and keeping the horses separated. As Harrington readily admits, if Creative Cause defeats Empire Way Saturday he very well could deny the latter of much needed graded stakes earnings required to make the Kentucky Derby// Creative Cause had the bullet work going 4-furlongs Tuesday at Hollywood Park. Harrington said it was quicker than he preferred// Blingo, a gelding and son of Artie Schiller, has matured since his last effort in the CashCall Futurity (G1) in December according to John Shirreffs. The Kentucky Derby winning trainer says the San Felipe is a major test to see how Blingo takes to dirt// Jerry Hollendorfer still believes in Rousing Sermon and hopes the colt doesn’t start too far behind in the San Felipe// Delta Jackpot (G3) winner Sabercat is confirmed for the Rebel Stakes. He was originally pointed to the San Felipe but trainer Steve Asmussen said the son of Bluegrass Cat needed another week of training// Several posts ago I mentioned the absence of any official workouts from Peruvian import Fly Lexis Fly. Tuesday it was revealed he will most likely miss the Derby and target the Belmont Stakes instead. According to trainer Arturo Morales the quarantine process has taken too long// Updated Kentucky Derby future odds were released by Wynn Las Vegas. Gotham (G3) winner Hansen is down to 12-1, still better than Churchill Downs’ Future Wager Pool #2 that ended Sunday. My Adonis, 2^nd in the Gotham (G3) dropped to 40-1// Speaking of Hansen, recaps and opinion keep popping up seemingly by the minute. An interesting backhanded compliment by Ed DeRosa on the TwinSpires blog about Hansen being ideal for the second tier Summer and Fall Derbys. I doubt Hansen’s connections have the Oklahoma Derby on their radar at this point…

Articles

Harrington 3YOs both expected for San Felipe (Bloodhorse)

Blingo adding focus to his ability, returns in San Felipe (DRF)

Rousing Sermon will need big showing in San Felipe (DRF)

Sabercat to go in Rebel (DRF)

Fly Lexis Fly likely to skip Kentucky Derby for Belmont Stakes (TTimes)

Hansen and Union Rags: A Derby debate develops (Louisville.com)

Hansen brings hope to retired racehorses (Forbes Online)

Triple Crown Insider: Gotham recap (TwinSpires Blog)

Let’s be Frank: Will the real Hansen please stand up? (Sports Network)

Vini, vidi, vici (Hansen Blog via Courier Journal)

The horse without the blue tail, Derby 138 Top Twenty (WHAS-11 TV)

Guess who’s back? (Horseracing Insider)

Derby favorites come from the heart (ESPN)

Point/Counterpoint: Empire Way vs. Mark Valeski (Zipse at the Track/Derby Wars Blog)

Five under the radar Derby hopefuls (Bloodhorse Blog)

As Kentucky Derby rolls nearer everyone has story to share (Gaming Today)

Works

Optimizer- OP- 4F- 47:40 B- 2/17

Hierro- SA- 5F- 1.00:00- H- 5/14

Creative Cause- HOL- 4F- 46:40- H- 1/34

Kentucky Derby Future Odds

Wynn Las Vegas 3/5

Rankings

AP Top 10 (AP)

Paulick Index 3/6 (Paulick Report)

Weekly Top Speed Figures*

3yo winning Beyers last week: Hansen-95; Flashy Dresser-89; Mile High Magic-94; State of Play-83; Steve's Adventures-87.

Top 3yo winning BRIS figs last week: Hansen-108; Flashy Dresser-102; Mile High Magic-100; State of Play-96; Steve's Adventures-96

*Source: DerbyContenders via Twitter

Notes and bits from web and Twitter:

“23.20, 46.40 out 59.60 for Creative Cause. As good as he has looked in the morning this year. Hopefully he cools out the right way ...”- ClockerDH via Twitter

Thoughts on Hansen's Gotham win// Key workouts for the Rebel, Tampa Bay Derby, San Felipe// State of Play bounces back

According to his owner, 2-year-old Champion Hansen was not happy after his first defeat nearly five weeks ago in the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream. A flight to New York and an authoritative win in the Gotham Stakes (G3) Saturday at Aqueduct hopefully will make Hansen easier to deal with around the barn. Plagued with the misfortune of post 12 in a 13-horse field, many handicappers (including myself) felt the colt was vulnerable as the short-priced favorite, especially considering his apparent need to set the pace. When the gates flung open and Hansen was forced to both race wide and sit off a couple early leaders, it was immediately apparent he was going to be tested. Trainer Michael Maker had made adjustments to Hansen’s bit and also decided to shed blinkers completely. Whether it was those tweaks or the mere fact the colt is maturing, the fifth race of the Champ’s career proved to be a revelation. Jockey Ramon Dominguez was able to hold Hansen back and get him to relax along the backstretch just off pacesetter King and Crusader. The winning move came on the far turn when Dominguez loosened the reigns, passed the leader on the outside, and navigated an easy stretch run along the rail. The final margin was 3-lengths over My Adonis who was another 6-lenghts clear of Finnegan’s Wake, and the final time for 1 1/16 miles was 1:43.84.

It is of no fault to Hansen who ended up behind him, but the Gotham field was questionable. Only two horses were open Stakes winners (both ungraded) while 9 challengers only graduated from either maiden or allowance company. This scenario was intentional for Hansen’s connections, who fled from the tough Florida circuit for an easier spot to boost his confidence.

Nonetheless, Hansen showed toughness, poise, and professionalism in his Gotham win. His ability to now rate off the lead will cause many previous doubters to rethink their opinion on his chances in the Kentucky Derby. His next and final race before the Derby will most likely be the Wood Memorial (G1) at the same track, which could set an intriguing matchup with Alpha//

State of Play was back to winning ways Saturday with a photo finish victory in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway. The Spiral (G3) will most likely be his next race, which would be fitting for connections Team Valor and Graham Motion, who used the same race to launch Animal Kingdom into the Derby last year// After trainer Mike Harrington was quoted multiple times saying he was trying to separate his two Derby contenders Creative Cause and Empire Way, it seems there is now a good possibility they will face each other in the San Felipe (G2)// The Kentucky Derby is still a possible target for the filly On Fire Baby// Ever So Lucky, who had some foot bruising recently, fired a bullet workout move at Gulfstream. He’s still likely for the Swale (G2) next Saturday// I’ll Have Another had his public workout Saturday at Santa Anita, and according to DRF it was good one. Many other key workouts occurred Saturday for contenders Dullahan, Currency Swap, Alpha, Battle Hardened, and Gemologist. All times are below// The Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #2 is still open and as of Saturday night ‘All Others’ were still the favorite at 5-2 followed by Union Rags at 4-1. Hansen dropped from 12-1 to 8-1 following his Gotham victory…

Gotham Stakes (G3)

Winner: Hansen

Trainer: Michael Maker

Jockey: Ramon Dominguez

Chart: Equibase Chart

Video: YouTube

Wrap-up articles: NYRA / AP / Bloodhorse / Brisnet / DRF

Beyer: 95 (Preliminary)

John Battaglia Memorial Stakes

Winner: State of Play

Trainer: H. Graham Motion

Jockey: Victor Lebron

Chart: Equibase Chart

Wrap-up articles: DRF / Bloodhorse / Brisnet

Beyer: 83 (Preliminary)

Articles

‘All Others’, Union Rags hold steady in Derby futures (Churchill Downs)

Triple Crown possibles work at Oaklawn Park (Bloodhorse)

I’ll Have Another blitzes six furlongs in 1:10 (Brisnet)

Creative Cause may join stablemate Empire Way in San Felipe (DRF)

Battle Hardened in fighting shape for Tampa Bay Derby (DRF)

Ever So Lucky works toward possible Swale start (The Downey Profile)

Soutwest victor Castaway back to work (Bloodhorse)

Works

Empire Way HOL- 5F- 1.01:00- H- 24/54

Consulado HOL- 4F- 46:00- H- 1/48

Hakama FH- 5F- 1.01:60- B- 2/7

Hogy HAW- 5F- 1.04:60- B- 9/11

Scatman OP- 5F- 1.01:60- B- 10/42

Atigun OP- 5F- 1.01:00- B- 6/42

Hammers Terror FG- 5F- 1.00:40- B- 7/53

Dullahan GP- 5F- 1.00:60- H- 2/19

Ever So Lucky GP- 5F- 58:80- H- 1/19

Currency Swap GP- 5F- 1.03:80- B- 17/19

Alpha PMM- 4F- 49:83- B- 31/48

Battle Hardened PMM- 5F- 1.02:04- B- 3/9

Thunder Moccasin PMM- 4F- 49:70- B- 25/48

Gemologist PMM- 5F- 1.00:22- B- 1/9

I'll Have Another SA- 6F- 1.10:00- H- 1/4

Gotham draws 13, Hansen gets bad post// Consortium, Junebugred latest off Trail// Future Wager Pool #2 odds released

The Gotham Stakes (G3) drew a big field of 13, highlighted by the entry of 2-year-old Champion Hansen. He was assignd the unfortunate post #12, which is not optimal on the Aqueduct inner track. Nonetheless, Hansen is the overwhelming favorite at 6-5. Second choice is My Adonis at 5-1, who trailed Hansen by just a half-length at the wire in the Holy Bull (G3). There are several other contenders who could be maturing at the right time and on the verge of a breakout performance. Raconteur, Side Road, and Stealcase are ones we’ll keep an eye on. Entries and preview articles for the Gotham below// More defections from the Trail Wednesday. Consortium was withheld from the Gotham due to an ankle chip and will not point for the Derby. That same injury was attributed to Junebugred, winner of the Smarty Jones Stakes and a disappointing 6^th in the Southwest (G3). Also, catching up to a bit of old news, Bob Baffert’s Sky Kingdom will be out 60 days which knocks him off the Trail as well// The morning line odds for the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #2 were released. Once again ‘All Others’ are favored at 3-1, however Union Rags is close behind at 4-1. A little surprised to see allowance winner Fed Biz is the third choice at 12-1. It will be interesting to see if the public keeps him that low. Six new individual horses were added: Bodemeister, Castaway, Mark Valeski, News Pending, Scatman, and Secret Circle// Speaking of Scatman, trainer Michael Lauer says his phone has been ringing steadily with calls from reporters ever since Scatman challenged Secret Circle all the way to the wire in the Southwest. The colt will try the Rebel (G2) next, which could setup a rematch if Secret Circle ships back// Bob Baffert’s Fed Biz and Liaison had extended 6-furlongs works and are still on track for the San Felipe// Currency Swap, winner of the Hopeful (G1) last year, is training slowly for a return to racing. Trainer Teresa Pompay says the colt will ideally race in an allowance at Gulfstream followed by a Derby prep// more…

Gotham Stakes (G3)

Entries here

Preview articles: NYRA / Bloodhorse / Brisnet / DRF

Articles

Consortium on shelf with ankle chip (Bloodhorse)

Bone chip takes Junebugred off TC Trail (Bloodhorse)

Champion Hansen in New York state of mind (TTimes)

On the farm: the weaning of Hansen (Hansen Blog via Courier Journal)

Motion takes a pass on Gotham with two candidates (DRF)

Triple Crown victory one of few eluding Dominguez (DRF)

Baffert pair work for San Felipe (Bloodhorse)

Scatman targets Rebel, Junebugred off trail (Oaklawn Barn Notes)

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #2: ‘All Others’ favored (Churchill Downs)

Romans mulls News Pending’s next start (The Downey Profile)

Calhoun has two shots to produce a Kentucky Derby prospect (DRF)

Currency Swap getting late start (The Downey Profile)

Union Rags’ pedigree suggest he can hit Kentucky Derby’s distance (The Saratogian)

Union Rags the latest Kentucky Derby contender to have Pennsylvania ties (DRF)

3-year-olds to watch 2/28 (In The Money Blog)

Who’s hot, who’s not 2/29 (DRF)

Who is the real News Pending? (Bloodhorse Blog)

Kentucky Derby Report March 1 (Brisnet)

Rankings

Super Six Derby Pix (They Are Off Blog)

Works

Motor City- PMM- 4F- 52:22- B- 20/20

Animal Spirits- FG- 3F- 37:80- B- 11/14

Night Tide- SA- 7F- 1.25:60- H- 1/2

Liaison- SA- 6F- 1.13:80- H- 4/12

Fed Biz- SA- 6F- 1.13:40- H- 3/12

Brother Francis- SA- 6F- 1.12:00- H- 1/12

Baffert, Bejarano grab two Southwest trophies, what did we learn from race?// Algorithms 'unbelievable' in work// more

In just under forty minutes trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Rafael Bejarano etched their names into two Southwest Stakes (G3) trophies at Oaklawn Park Monday. The first by maiden winner Castaway was the more visually impressive performance when he pulled away from the pack down the stretch to claim victory by 3 3/4 lengths. Jake Mo and Reckless Jerry completed a dollar trifecta that paid $1,065. Castaway, who failed to break his maiden in his first five tries, is finally living up to his $435,000 price tag for Coolmore.

Stablemate and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint winner Secret Circle had to work a little harder in the second version of the Southwest. After sitting just off pacesetter Scatman for most of the mile contest, the two engaged in a spirited duel down the stretch before Secret Circle eventually crossed the wire a half-length in front. It was another five lengths back to third place finisher Adirondack King.

Aside from Bob Baffert flexing even more muscle along the Kentucky Derby Trail, it’s difficult to get a read on all of the Southwest performers. Perhaps it’s safe to assume the Arkansas-based contingent is a step below the Southern California, Florida, and New York circuits. That not only leads us to question the quality behind the victors, but the performances of the winners themselves. Secret Circle was game, however drifting noticeably in the stretch. It’s very difficult to imagine him excelling at 10 furlongs. Maybe Castaway is an emerging star putting all the pieces together at the right time, but his final clocking was a second slower than Secret Circle and he had a perfect trip with modest fractions.

El Padrino received a lot of ink Monday ahead of the Risen Star (G2) at the Fair Grounds. He deserves headlines at this point, but still surprising hardly anyone reported on Lecomte (G3) winner Mr. Bowling and his 5-furlong bullet work ahead of the Risen Star// Pletcher sent several Kentucky Derby contenders to the track for official moves Monday, including Algorithms and Discreet Dancer who are heading to Sunday’s Fountain of Youth. According to the clocker, Algorithms looked “unbelievable”// Mike Harrington apparently backed off statements last week that Creative Cause will head to the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn. He will still try to separate him from Empire Way who is set for the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita// A non-intentionally funny article from Yahoo! on the “25 likely Kentucky Derby entries”. Pretty bold statement to make on Feb 20^th// Another entry from Hansen’s owner in the Courier-Journal blog. I’m beginning to think alcohol plays a role in these posts…

Results

Southwest Stakes (G3)- Division 1

Winner: Castaway

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

Chart: Equibase chart

Replay: Bloodhorse Replay

Wrap-up articles: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

Southwest Stakes (G3)- Division 2

Winner: Secret Circle

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

Chart: Equibase chart

Replay: Bloodhorse Replay

Wrap-up articles: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

Upcoming:

Saturday- Risen Star Stakes (G2)- entries

Other Articles

Pletcher pair work for Fountain of Youth (Bloodhorse)

Algorithms, Discreet Dancer prep nicely for Fountain of Youth (DRF)

El Padrino faces Jones duo, eight others in Saturday’s Grade II Risen Star (Sports Nola)

Pletcher has ‘El’ of a shot to capture Run For Roses (NY Post)

Drill will focus on one-turn stakes, not Kentucky Derby (DRF)

Tiz Point will get shot, perhaps in San Felipe or SA Derby (DRF)

Under the radar: Holy Bull shows My Adonis headed in right direction (DRF)

Early Kentucky Derby prospects emerging in prep races (Yahoo!)

Leparoux lands Derby favorite, and a bride to be (The Wall Street Journal)

Hansen to the next level (Hansen Blog via the Courier Journal)

Twinspires.com announces new $1 Million Triple Crown showdown (Brisnet)

Video

After the wire 2/20 (Bloodhorse)

Works

Out of Bounds- HOL- 5F- 59:80 H- 2/25

Hierro- SA- 5F- 1.00:80- H- 10/33

How Do I Win- BEL- 4F- 48:64- B- 3/28

Shared Property- FG- 5F- 1.01:60- B- 20/63

Mr. Bowling- FG- 5F- 59:80- B- 1/63

Z Dager- FG- 4F- 50:60- B- 39/68

Class President- FG- 5F- 1.02:00- B- 24/63

Brown Eyed Jozi- OP- 5F- 1.01:00- B- 2/7

Discreet Dancer- PMM- 5F- 1.00:24- B- 1/9

Algorithms- PMM- 4F- 49:09- B- 7/21

Ender Knievel- PMM- 4F- 48:89- B- 5/21

Liberty Bound- PMM- 4F- 48:89- B- 5/21

Creative Cause to face 5 in San Vicente// Official Graded Earnings list released// No dye for Hansen// Optimizer the best in Southwest?

One of the big questions along the Kentucky Derby Trail seems to always be how promising juveniles will fare in their sophomore year. Recent conventional wisdom suggests they don’t hold up well. Just last year we saw the descent of early favorites Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve, although both bounced back somewhat after the Derby. There seems to be something about the slow period of mid-November to February that either causes a horse to grow, mature, and progress or become a shadow of his own self through regression, injury, or ailment.

Sunday should give somewhat of an answer to that question for Creative Cause, currently #2 in the CTD Top 5, who makes his 3-year-old debut in the San Vicente Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita. However, we may not get a definitive answer on where he stands off a three-and-a-half month layoff for a host of reasons. Creative Cause is only facing five other sophomores and only one is a stakes winner. That would be Drill, who has run off the board in his last four starts and seems to be past his prime. The San Vicente is also only one-turn, which means it could benefit other horses that may not be Derby material but are more suited to sprinting. Nonetheless, it will be telling to witness Creative Cause’s demeanor, motion, and effort. For details on his competition there are links to several preview articles below. Also, PPs, race videos, and picks are available on the race page here.

Churchill Downs released the first Official Graded Earnings list today. The top 20 after April 28^th are eligible to enter the Kentucky Derby. As it stands now- and the list will change drastically over the coming months- there is a three-way tie for spots #18 through #20. Those horses currently have $120,000 in earnings, which is the exact same amount Derby Kitten had in 2011 to fill the final spot in the Derby gate. The average amount for spot #20 in the past five years has been $132,650. I’ve been keeping an unofficial Graded Earnings list for the 2012 Kentucky Derby for several weeks and there are some inconsistencies and question marks between it and the official version. Two horses are absent from the rankings- She Digs Me and Seven Lively Sins. One would then assume they are off the trail although it has not been reported to the public. Furthermore, Todd Pletcher’s Overdriven made the list despite recent quotes from the trainer indicating it’s nearly impossible the colt can make it May 5^th.

Trainer Kenny Smith thinks Reckless Jerry is sitting on a big effort in Monday’s Southwest as long as he gets a better trip than he did in the Smarty Jones Stakes. D. Wayne Lukas believes Optimizer is the best horse in the probable Southwest field, but says the colt needs more distance. Even if the race were 10 furlongs I have a feeling bettors would disagree with his statement, seeing as Optimizer has been off the board in his last three races// According to both trainer and jockey of Lady of Fifty, the filly does not necessarily need the early lead to win the El Camino Real// Nice feature on My Adonis, who will meet Hansen again, this time in New York in the Gotham Stakes (G3). Steve Haskin thinks My Adonis is a serious threat to pass Hansen in the stretch at Aqueduct.

Speaking of Hansen and the Gotham, the Aqueduct stewards ruled against the dyeing of his mane and tail. In my opinion the whole idea and buzz surrounding it amount to nothing. I’m all for promoting the sport in unique ways and don’t consider myself too much of a traditionalist, but the idea to color the horse would not bring new permanent fans to the sport or attract positive attention. Frankly, would anyone aside from a four-year-old that likes carousels really care to vote on a color? Hopefully the story will now go away…

Upcoming Graded Races:

El Camino Real Derby (G3)- PPs, race videos, picks and more here

San Vicente (G2)- PPs, race videos, picks and more here

Articles

San Vicente Previews: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

Shippers offer stern test for Hollendorfer pair in El Camino (DRF)

Lady of Fifty runs with males in El Camino Derby (San Francisco Chronicle)

A Derby candidate in Pegram’s stable? (Princeton Daily Clarion)

Oaklawn Barn Notes 2/16 [news on Reckless Jerry, Optimizer, and Atigun] (Oaklawn Park)

New York stewards deny color request [for Hansen] (Courier Journal Blog)

More on Hansen’s color rejection (TTimes)

I’ll Have Another earns his first [pedigree profile] (Bloodhorse)