Chasing The Derby: Empire Way

Even if Lucky Chappy wins/runs well in Dubai, he still might not be pointed for KDerby b/c of concerns about the effects of long trip- Randy Moss via Twitter

Harrington pits prospects against each other// Blingo, Rousing Sermon ready for San Felipe// Fly Lexis Fly to skip Derby// Updated Future Odds

Has the cost of transporting horses increased? Did Creative Cause perhaps not ship well to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November? Mike Harrington finally made a decision on what to do with his top two Kentucky Derby prospects: Creative Cause and Empire Way will run against each other Saturday in the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita. Harrington’s excuse of timing is a bit odd, as it will only be three weeks since Creative Cause’s last race. The Rebel (G2) the following week seemed like an ideal choice in terms of both timing and keeping the horses separated. As Harrington readily admits, if Creative Cause defeats Empire Way Saturday he very well could deny the latter of much needed graded stakes earnings required to make the Kentucky Derby// Creative Cause had the bullet work going 4-furlongs Tuesday at Hollywood Park. Harrington said it was quicker than he preferred// Blingo, a gelding and son of Artie Schiller, has matured since his last effort in the CashCall Futurity (G1) in December according to John Shirreffs. The Kentucky Derby winning trainer says the San Felipe is a major test to see how Blingo takes to dirt// Jerry Hollendorfer still believes in Rousing Sermon and hopes the colt doesn’t start too far behind in the San Felipe// Delta Jackpot (G3) winner Sabercat is confirmed for the Rebel Stakes. He was originally pointed to the San Felipe but trainer Steve Asmussen said the son of Bluegrass Cat needed another week of training// Several posts ago I mentioned the absence of any official workouts from Peruvian import Fly Lexis Fly. Tuesday it was revealed he will most likely miss the Derby and target the Belmont Stakes instead. According to trainer Arturo Morales the quarantine process has taken too long// Updated Kentucky Derby future odds were released by Wynn Las Vegas. Gotham (G3) winner Hansen is down to 12-1, still better than Churchill Downs’ Future Wager Pool #2 that ended Sunday. My Adonis, 2^nd in the Gotham (G3) dropped to 40-1// Speaking of Hansen, recaps and opinion keep popping up seemingly by the minute. An interesting backhanded compliment by Ed DeRosa on the TwinSpires blog about Hansen being ideal for the second tier Summer and Fall Derbys. I doubt Hansen’s connections have the Oklahoma Derby on their radar at this point…

Articles

Harrington 3YOs both expected for San Felipe (Bloodhorse)

Blingo adding focus to his ability, returns in San Felipe (DRF)

Rousing Sermon will need big showing in San Felipe (DRF)

Sabercat to go in Rebel (DRF)

Fly Lexis Fly likely to skip Kentucky Derby for Belmont Stakes (TTimes)

Hansen and Union Rags: A Derby debate develops (Louisville.com)

Hansen brings hope to retired racehorses (Forbes Online)

Triple Crown Insider: Gotham recap (TwinSpires Blog)

Let’s be Frank: Will the real Hansen please stand up? (Sports Network)

Vini, vidi, vici (Hansen Blog via Courier Journal)

The horse without the blue tail, Derby 138 Top Twenty (WHAS-11 TV)

Guess who’s back? (Horseracing Insider)

Derby favorites come from the heart (ESPN)

Point/Counterpoint: Empire Way vs. Mark Valeski (Zipse at the Track/Derby Wars Blog)

Five under the radar Derby hopefuls (Bloodhorse Blog)

As Kentucky Derby rolls nearer everyone has story to share (Gaming Today)

Works

Optimizer- OP- 4F- 47:40 B- 2/17

Hierro- SA- 5F- 1.00:00- H- 5/14

Creative Cause- HOL- 4F- 46:40- H- 1/34

Kentucky Derby Future Odds

Wynn Las Vegas 3/5

Rankings

AP Top 10 (AP)

Paulick Index 3/6 (Paulick Report)

Weekly Top Speed Figures*

3yo winning Beyers last week: Hansen-95; Flashy Dresser-89; Mile High Magic-94; State of Play-83; Steve's Adventures-87.

Top 3yo winning BRIS figs last week: Hansen-108; Flashy Dresser-102; Mile High Magic-100; State of Play-96; Steve's Adventures-96

*Source: DerbyContenders via Twitter

Notes and bits from web and Twitter:

“23.20, 46.40 out 59.60 for Creative Cause. As good as he has looked in the morning this year. Hopefully he cools out the right way ...”- ClockerDH via Twitter

Thoughts on Hansen's Gotham win// Key workouts for the Rebel, Tampa Bay Derby, San Felipe// State of Play bounces back

According to his owner, 2-year-old Champion Hansen was not happy after his first defeat nearly five weeks ago in the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream. A flight to New York and an authoritative win in the Gotham Stakes (G3) Saturday at Aqueduct hopefully will make Hansen easier to deal with around the barn. Plagued with the misfortune of post 12 in a 13-horse field, many handicappers (including myself) felt the colt was vulnerable as the short-priced favorite, especially considering his apparent need to set the pace. When the gates flung open and Hansen was forced to both race wide and sit off a couple early leaders, it was immediately apparent he was going to be tested. Trainer Michael Maker had made adjustments to Hansen’s bit and also decided to shed blinkers completely. Whether it was those tweaks or the mere fact the colt is maturing, the fifth race of the Champ’s career proved to be a revelation. Jockey Ramon Dominguez was able to hold Hansen back and get him to relax along the backstretch just off pacesetter King and Crusader. The winning move came on the far turn when Dominguez loosened the reigns, passed the leader on the outside, and navigated an easy stretch run along the rail. The final margin was 3-lengths over My Adonis who was another 6-lenghts clear of Finnegan’s Wake, and the final time for 1 1/16 miles was 1:43.84.

It is of no fault to Hansen who ended up behind him, but the Gotham field was questionable. Only two horses were open Stakes winners (both ungraded) while 9 challengers only graduated from either maiden or allowance company. This scenario was intentional for Hansen’s connections, who fled from the tough Florida circuit for an easier spot to boost his confidence.

Nonetheless, Hansen showed toughness, poise, and professionalism in his Gotham win. His ability to now rate off the lead will cause many previous doubters to rethink their opinion on his chances in the Kentucky Derby. His next and final race before the Derby will most likely be the Wood Memorial (G1) at the same track, which could set an intriguing matchup with Alpha//

State of Play was back to winning ways Saturday with a photo finish victory in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway. The Spiral (G3) will most likely be his next race, which would be fitting for connections Team Valor and Graham Motion, who used the same race to launch Animal Kingdom into the Derby last year// After trainer Mike Harrington was quoted multiple times saying he was trying to separate his two Derby contenders Creative Cause and Empire Way, it seems there is now a good possibility they will face each other in the San Felipe (G2)// The Kentucky Derby is still a possible target for the filly On Fire Baby// Ever So Lucky, who had some foot bruising recently, fired a bullet workout move at Gulfstream. He’s still likely for the Swale (G2) next Saturday// I’ll Have Another had his public workout Saturday at Santa Anita, and according to DRF it was good one. Many other key workouts occurred Saturday for contenders Dullahan, Currency Swap, Alpha, Battle Hardened, and Gemologist. All times are below// The Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #2 is still open and as of Saturday night ‘All Others’ were still the favorite at 5-2 followed by Union Rags at 4-1. Hansen dropped from 12-1 to 8-1 following his Gotham victory…

Gotham Stakes (G3)

Winner: Hansen

Trainer: Michael Maker

Jockey: Ramon Dominguez

Chart: Equibase Chart

Video: YouTube

Wrap-up articles: NYRA / AP / Bloodhorse / Brisnet / DRF

Beyer: 95 (Preliminary)

John Battaglia Memorial Stakes

Winner: State of Play

Trainer: H. Graham Motion

Jockey: Victor Lebron

Chart: Equibase Chart

Wrap-up articles: DRF / Bloodhorse / Brisnet

Beyer: 83 (Preliminary)

Articles

‘All Others’, Union Rags hold steady in Derby futures (Churchill Downs)

Triple Crown possibles work at Oaklawn Park (Bloodhorse)

I’ll Have Another blitzes six furlongs in 1:10 (Brisnet)

Creative Cause may join stablemate Empire Way in San Felipe (DRF)

Battle Hardened in fighting shape for Tampa Bay Derby (DRF)

Ever So Lucky works toward possible Swale start (The Downey Profile)

Soutwest victor Castaway back to work (Bloodhorse)

Works

Empire Way HOL- 5F- 1.01:00- H- 24/54

Consulado HOL- 4F- 46:00- H- 1/48

Hakama FH- 5F- 1.01:60- B- 2/7

Hogy HAW- 5F- 1.04:60- B- 9/11

Scatman OP- 5F- 1.01:60- B- 10/42

Atigun OP- 5F- 1.01:00- B- 6/42

Hammers Terror FG- 5F- 1.00:40- B- 7/53

Dullahan GP- 5F- 1.00:60- H- 2/19

Ever So Lucky GP- 5F- 58:80- H- 1/19

Currency Swap GP- 5F- 1.03:80- B- 17/19

Alpha PMM- 4F- 49:83- B- 31/48

Battle Hardened PMM- 5F- 1.02:04- B- 3/9

Thunder Moccasin PMM- 4F- 49:70- B- 25/48

Gemologist PMM- 5F- 1.00:22- B- 1/9

I'll Have Another SA- 6F- 1.10:00- H- 1/4

Algorithms off Trail// Florida Derby possible for Alpha, El Padrino// Creative Cause works// Ever So Lucky injured

As is often the case, the rigors of the Kentucky Derby Trail rear their ugly head early and often. Algorithms is officially off the Trail and will have surgery to remove a fractured splint. A heartbreaking loss for all connections considering he was a serious contender for the Derby// Ever So Lucky has a bruised foot, however the plan is to still make the Swale Stakes (G2) March 10^th// Looks like Southwest (G3) winner Secret Circle will return to Oaklawn to try the Rebel (G2). Even more revealing was owner Mike Pegram stating he’s not giving up Derby hopes for Drill, winner of the 7-furlong San Vicente but dissapointing in recent two-turn attempts. Derby Fever already creeping up in February?// Interesting article from DRF on Mark Valeski. Trainer Larry Jones thought the colt looked “fat” before the Risen Star and hopes the tough stretch duel will help tighten him up. He also said he won’t train the colt too hard leading into the Louisiana Derby (G2) based on his history of sore shins// Creative Cause had a perfect 6-furlong work at Hollywood Park in preparation for the San Felipe (G2) according to trainer Mike Harrington. He could face his stablemate Empire Way, but the latter may ship to Oaklawn for the Rebel (G2) instead// Theoretically the Florida Derby (G1) could offer an enticing Derby preview featuring not only Kentucky Derby favorite Union Rags, but possibly other top contenders Alpha and El Padrino. Alpha’s trainer Kiaran McLaughlin likes the idea of a small field and ensuring Ramon Dominguez rides the colt, while Dominguez could have a conflict in the Wood Memorial in New York where he would probably opt to ride Hansen instead. As for El Padrino, it still doesn’t seem the Florida Derby is first choice for his owners or Todd Pletcher, but they’re keeping the option open// A good article on all of Dale Romans’s Derby prospects. Romans doesn’t seem too confident in Finnegan’s Wake switching to dirt in Saturday’s Gotham (G3), but he’ll try nonetheless.

Gotham Probables: Chief Energy, Consortium, Cop A Tude, Dan and Sheila, Done Talking, Hansen, King and Crusader, Maan, My Adonis, Pretension, Raconteur, Tiger Walk (Source: The Downey Profile)

Articles

Algorithms to undergo surgery, off Triple Crown Trail (TTimes)

Ever So Lucky has foot bruise (DRF)

Creative Cause drill quick three-quarters (Bloodhorse)

Florida Derby under consideration for El Padrino (Bloodhorse)

Secret Circle still in running for Derby (Princeton Daily Clarion)

Florida Derby possible for Alpha (DRF)

Hansen is ready for Aqueduct’s Gotham Stakes (Graded Stakes Blog)

Mark Valeski not at his peak (DRF)

Can Union Rags stretch out (TrueNicks)

Don’t sleep on Romans (Bloodhorse Blog)

On the move: Rafael Bejarano (Bloodhorse Blog)

Rankings

CTD Top 5

AP Top 10 (Associated Press)

Works

Coalition- BEL- 5F- 1.02:88- B- 11/20

Creative Cause- HOL- 6F- 1.11:80- H-1/1

Longview Drive- HOL- 4F- 48:20- H- 4/24

Hierro- SA- 6F- 1.13:20- H- 1/2

Speightscity- BEL- 5F- 1.02:55- B- 6/15

Speed Figures*

Top 3yo winning BRIS figs last week: Secret Circle & The Lumber Guy-103 Union Rags-102; El Padrino-101; Castaway & Politicallycorrect-97

3yo winning Beyers last week: Secret Circle-102; The Lumber Guy-86 Union Rags-95; El Padrino-98; Castaway-92; Politicallycorrect-83.

*Source: DerbyContenders via Twitter

Notes and bits from web and Twitter:

Baffert says his two San Felipe runners 3-10 at SA will be Fed Biz and Liaison. Bejarano will ride one, other rider TBD- Jay Privman via Twitter

Sabercat could go to 3-17 Rebel for 2012 debut, rather than 3-10 San Felipe, Asmussen says. Nakatani will have mount - Jay Privman via Twitter

Creative Cause & Empire Way to stay separated// Longview Drive ready for Southwest// No rushing Sir Bond

Trainer Mike Harrington discusses some possible chess moves with his two top Kentucky Derby Contenders. After Sunday’s San Vicente (G2), Creative Cause is likely to ship to Arkansas for the Rebel (G2) in order to stay away from Empire Way and his quest to accumulate Graded Earnings in the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita. First things first however, Harrington is hoping Creative Cause shows some progression from his juvenile campaign in the San Vicente. He reiterated that the horse does not necessarily have to win, especially considering he has enough in Graded Earnings for the Derby// With possibly 21 interests in the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn, it’s not surprising that workouts have occurred all throughout the week, even on the Friday before Monday’s race. Longview Drive, 3^rd in both the Sham (G3) and Delta Jackpot (G3), lit up the track with a 4-furlong move in 48:20. Najjaar also worked at Oaklawn in what appears on paper to be a good move, but trainer Danny Peitz decided he’ll skip the Southwest and look for a longer race seeing as the son of Jazil likes to drop far back in the early going. Apprehender, a quick maiden winner at Oaklawn who earned a 98 Beyer speed figure, could be on the outside looking in if the Southwest does not split into two divisions. He sits towards the bottom of contender earnings and will have to await the draw Saturday. If he does race, it will be without blinkers, which he wore in his debut// Further south and east, Sam F. Davis (G3) winner Battle Hardened worked a modest 4-panels at Palm Meadows. He is still likely for the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) on March 10// Some good fact-finding by Dick Downey reveals Irish trainer Aiden O’Brien is unlikely to point Wrote, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) and #4 on the Graded Earnings list, to the Kentucky Derby// Yet another impressive maiden winner made himself known Thursday. Sir Bond dominated in his fourth career start at the Fair Grounds, where he covered the 1 1/16 miles in 1.45:12 to earn a 91 Beyer figure. Trainer Neil Howard said he would like to move ahead slowly with the colt and look for an allowance for his next race.

For complete coverage on Saturday’s El Camino Real Derby and Sunday’s San Vicente check out the race page here

Articles

CA Derby and Oaks Champs vie in El Camino Real Derby (Iron Maidens Thoroughbred Blog)

Kentucky Derby hopefuls get Bay Area showcase (The Sacramento Bee)

San Vicente merely a starting point for Creative Cause (DRF)

West Coast’s Creative Cause begins march towards Kentucky Derby on Sunday (LA Daily News)

Creative Cause set for launch in San Vicente (TTimes)

Carava says American Act is improving (The Downey Profile)

Longview Drive sharpens for crowded Southwest (DRF)

Najjaar declared out of Southwest (The Downey Profile)

Southwest could be split into two divisions (Bloodhorse)

Sir Bond impresses with maiden win (DRF)

Baffert back in the mix (Bloodhorse Blog)

Gotham shaping up strong (DRF)

Battle Hardened breezes at Palm Meadows (Bloodhorse)

Write him off [Wrote] (The Downey Profile)

Castellano made the right call (ESPN)

Kentucky Derby bubble at $120,000 (The Brock Talk Blog)

The long and winding road (Courier Journal Hansen Blog)

Hovdey: Colorless ruling lacks common sense (DRF)

Road to the Derby- El Camino and San Vicente (Courier Journal)

Countdown to the Crown 2/17 (DRF)

Videos

Interview with Michael Matz on Union Rags (Gulfstream Park)

Derby Watch 2/17 (DRF)

Picks

The Commish’s picks- San Vicente (The Downey Profile)

Works

Battle Hardened- PMM- 4F- 49:80- B- 11/14

Howe Great- PMM- 5F- 1.06:05- B- 10/11

Longview Drive- OP- 4F- 48:20- B- 2/57

Najjaar- OP- 5F- 1.01:60- B- 2/58

Exfactor FG- 4F- 50:00- B- 33/64

Notes and bits from web and Twitter:

“Dullahan is back on the track at GP after fighting a cough that effected many on the backside ~ caught the eye jogging this AM - he grew up!”- Grade1Racing via Twitter

“John Shirreffs told me last night that he is serious considering the San Felipe for Blingo...John seems to have a lot of confidence in him”- Larry Zapeye via Twitter

“Ken McPeek told us that Atigun will likely scratch from the Southwest; has a foot issue. 90% out this AM, but we'll see how it develops”- TVGResearch via Twitter

Week In Review and Notable Perfomers 11/14-11/20

Like it or not, the quirky Delta Downs Jackpot (G3) plays a part in determining the following year’s Kentucky Derby field. Sabercat, the winner of Saturday’s million dollar contest, is guaranteed a spot in the gate. Second-place runner Basmati has a very good shot as well seeing as he cashed in $200K in graded earnings// Three graded races this week in Hollywood, New York, and Louisville. Links to pps, past race videos, and articles can be found on the upcoming page here. Interesting that Hollywood Prevue (G3) entrant Empire Way is down to 60-1 odds in the latest Kentucky Derby Wynn Las Vegas Future Book. Seeing as he only has a decent maiden win to his credit, being a full brother to Breeders’ Cup winner Royal Delta is a major factor in the backing// Majestic City will rest a little before returning to synthetic in the Cashcall Futurity (G1). Lucky Chappy, another colt who tried the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last time out, will also try the Futurity// Three-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer Nick Zito is getting the fever early again with promising maiden winner Casual Trick. Although the winning Beyer speed figure was low, plenty of colts have won first time out with a low 60 Beyer and steadily improved towards May…

Graded Stakes Review:

Delta Downs Jackpot (G3)

Winner: Sabercat NP

Jockey: Gerard Melancon

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Chart: Equibase

Video: YouTube

Beyer/BRIS: NA/86

Wrap-up articles: Bloodhorse / DRF1 DRF2 / Thoroughbred Times

Sabercat Notes:

-The manner the race unfolded, the final time, and the low speed figures are not really worthy of a “Notable Performer” tag. Nonetheless, winning a million dollar graded race and being assured a spot in the Kentucky Derby gate by November are reason enough to put on the list.

-Will ship to Santa Anita for a likely west-coast campaign

-$120,000 Sept Keeneland yearling purchase. His catalog page can be viewed here

-Half brother to a stakes winner out of a dam who was a half sister to a graded stakes winner

Other Delta Jackpot Notes:

-Hard to tell exactly what Drill’s issue is—blinkers, running style, dirt—but whatever it is he’s a mess right now

-2^nd Place finisher Basmati holds his own in every contest, but has a difficult time winning

Notable Performer:

How Do I Win

11/18/11 Aqueduct Starter Allowance

Jockey: John Velazquez

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Chart: Equibase

Beyer/BRIS: 78/91

Notes:

-An eye-popping 19-length winner last time out, How Do I Win proved that effort was not a fluke due to a sealed track

-Repole/Pletcher connections

-$190,000 Keeneland September Yearling purchase. Catalog page can be viewed here

-Sire Corinthian won up to 8.5 furlongs, but excelled at 8 furlongs.

-Dam is half sister to multiple graded stakes winner Powerful Punch (up to 9 furlongs)

Non-Graded Stakes:

11/18/11 Oklahoma Stallion S.- RP- Winner: Ted’s Folly- chart

11/19/11 Ohio Freshman S.- BEU- Winner: Baker’s Haulover- chart

11/19/11 Louisiana Legacy S.- DED- Winner: Cajun Charlie- chart

Works:

11/17/11 Majestic City HOL- 4F- 49:00- H- 12/19

11/17/11 Secret Circle SA- 5F- 1.01:20- H- 24/38

11/18/11 Friscan FH- 5F- 49:00- B- 1/14

11/18/11 Canigotoo RP- 5F- 1.00:28- B- 2/36

11/18/11 Sweet Swap SA- 6F- 1.12:80- H- 1/9

11/19/11 Twelve Hundred HAW- 5F- 1.02:40- B- 1/24

11/19/11 Hierro CD- 4F- 51:80- B- 84/91

11/19/11 Exfactor CD- 4F- 48:80- B- 14/91

11/19/11 Optimizer CD- 5F- 1.00:80- B- 4/50

11/20/11 Brown Eyed Jozi CD- 5F- 1.00:40- B- 2/32 (Good)

11/20/11 Seeker CD- 5F- 1.02:00- B- 18/32 (Good)

Articles:

Late-year juvenile races worth your attention (Saratogian)

Top 2 in Juvenile stakes preparing for Gulfstream (Miami Herald)

Looking back at Hansen’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Courier Journal Blog)

Kentucky Derby musings with my friend Captain Obvious (The Brock Talk)

Pena eyes Kentucky Derby for classic winner Fly Lexis Fly (Thoroughbred Times)

Zito harbors Derby hopes for Casual Trick (Brisnet)

Before Breeders’ Cup, Kentucky Jockey Club was major target for juveniles (DRF)

Majestic City will await CashCall Futurity (DRF)

Delta Jackpot winner Sabercat part of memorable weekend for Asmussen (DRF)

2-year-olds to watch (In The Money Blog)

Futures:

Wynn Las Vegas 11/21/11

Lucky’s 11/20/11

Speed Figures:

Top 2yo winning BRIS figs last week: Lucky Culprit - 96; Costas Fiftieth - 94; Ted's Folly - 93; He Can Run - 91; How Do I Win - 91

2yo winning Beyers last week: Lucky Culprit - 87; Costas Fiftieth - 81; Ted's Folly - 74; He Can Run - 75; How Do I Win – 78

*Source: DerbyContenders Twitter

Notes and bits from Twitter:

Graham Motion on ATR: Team Valor's LUCKY CHAPPY-IRE, 4th in BC Juvy Turf, will contest $750k G1 CashCall Futurity (HOL; 12/17)- Steve Byk

Sections

Weekend Review: Motion hoping for déjà vu with Went the Day Well// Daddy Nose Best earns spot in Kentucky Derby// Union Rags and El Padrino ready for Florida Derby// Hansen, Alpha work// more…

Harrington pits prospects against each other// Blingo, Rousing Sermon ready for San Felipe// Fly Lexis Fly to skip Derby// Updated Future Odds

Thoughts on Hansen's Gotham win// Key workouts for the Rebel, Tampa Bay Derby, San Felipe// State of Play bounces back

Algorithms off Trail// Florida Derby possible for Alpha, El Padrino// Creative Cause works// Ever So Lucky injured

Creative Cause & Empire Way to stay separated// Longview Drive ready for Southwest// No rushing Sir Bond

Week In Review and Notable Perfomers 11/14-11/20

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