Thoughts on Hansen's Gotham win// Key workouts for the Rebel, Tampa Bay Derby, San Felipe// State of Play bounces back

According to his owner, 2-year-old Champion Hansen was not happy after his first defeat nearly five weeks ago in the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream.  A flight to New York and an authoritative win in the Gotham Stakes (G3) Saturday at Aqueduct hopefully will make Hansen easier to deal with around the barn.  Plagued with the misfortune of post 12 in a 13-horse field, many handicappers (including myself) felt the colt was vulnerable as the short-priced favorite, especially considering his apparent need to set the pace.  When the gates flung open and Hansen was forced to both race wide and sit off a couple early leaders, it was immediately apparent he was going to be tested.  Trainer Michael Maker had made adjustments to Hansen’s bit and also decided to shed blinkers completely. Whether it was those tweaks or the mere fact the colt is maturing, the fifth race of the Champ’s career proved to be a revelation.  Jockey Ramon Dominguez was able to hold Hansen back and get him to relax along the backstretch just off pacesetter King and Crusader.  The winning move came on the far turn when Dominguez loosened the reigns, passed the leader on the outside, and navigated an easy stretch run along the rail.  The final margin was 3-lengths over My Adonis who was another 6-lenghts clear of Finnegan’s Wake, and the final time for 1 1/16 miles was 1:43.84.

It is of no fault to Hansen who ended up behind him, but the Gotham field was questionable.  Only two horses were open Stakes winners (both ungraded) while 9 challengers only graduated from either maiden or allowance company. This scenario was intentional for Hansen’s connections, who fled from the tough Florida circuit for an easier spot to boost his confidence.

Nonetheless, Hansen showed toughness, poise, and professionalism in his Gotham win.  His ability to now rate off the lead will cause many previous doubters to rethink their opinion on his chances in the Kentucky Derby.  His next and final race before the Derby will most likely be the Wood Memorial (G1) at the same track, which could set an intriguing matchup with Alpha//       

State of Play was back to winning ways Saturday with a photo finish victory in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway.  The Spiral (G3) will most likely be his next race, which would be fitting for connections Team Valor and Graham Motion, who used the same race to launch Animal Kingdom into the Derby last year// After trainer Mike Harrington was quoted multiple times saying he was trying to separate his two Derby contenders Creative Cause and Empire Way, it seems there is now a good possibility they will face each other in the San Felipe (G2)// The Kentucky Derby is still a possible target for the filly On Fire Baby// Ever So Lucky, who had some foot bruising recently, fired a bullet workout move at Gulfstream.  He’s still likely for the Swale (G2) next Saturday// I’ll Have Another had his public workout Saturday at Santa Anita, and according to DRF it was good one. Many other key workouts occurred Saturday for contenders Dullahan, Currency Swap, Alpha, Battle Hardened, and Gemologist.  All times are below// The Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #2 is still open and as of Saturday night ‘All Others’ were still the favorite at 5-2 followed by Union Rags at 4-1.   Hansen dropped from 12-1 to 8-1 following his Gotham victory…

 

Gotham Stakes (G3)

Winner: Hansen

Trainer: Michael Maker

Jockey: Ramon Dominguez

Chart: Equibase Chart

Video: YouTube

Wrap-up articles: NYRA / AP / Bloodhorse / Brisnet / DRF

Beyer: 95 (Preliminary)

John Battaglia Memorial Stakes

Winner: State of Play

Trainer: H. Graham Motion

Jockey: Victor Lebron

Chart: Equibase Chart

Wrap-up articles: DRF / Bloodhorse / Brisnet

Beyer: 83 (Preliminary)

Articles

‘All Others’, Union Rags hold steady in Derby futures (Churchill Downs)

Triple Crown possibles work at Oaklawn Park (Bloodhorse)

I’ll Have Another blitzes six furlongs in 1:10 (Brisnet)

Creative Cause may join stablemate Empire Way in San Felipe (DRF)

Battle Hardened in fighting shape for Tampa Bay Derby (DRF)

Ever So Lucky works toward possible Swale start (The Downey Profile)

Soutwest victor Castaway back to work (Bloodhorse)

Works

Empire Way HOL- 5F- 1.01:00- H- 24/54

Consulado HOL- 4F- 46:00- H- 1/48

Hakama FH- 5F- 1.01:60- B- 2/7

Hogy HAW- 5F- 1.04:60- B- 9/11

Scatman OP- 5F- 1.01:60- B- 10/42

Atigun OP- 5F- 1.01:00- B- 6/42

Hammers Terror FG- 5F- 1.00:40- B- 7/53

Dullahan GP- 5F- 1.00:60- H- 2/19

Ever So Lucky GP- 5F- 58:80- H- 1/19

Currency Swap GP- 5F- 1.03:80- B- 17/19

Alpha PMM- 4F- 49:83- B- 31/48

Battle Hardened PMM- 5F- 1.02:04- B- 3/9

Thunder Moccasin PMM- 4F- 49:70- B- 25/48

Gemologist PMM- 5F- 1.00:22- B- 1/9

I'll Have Another SA- 6F- 1.10:00- H- 1/4

Creative Cause & Empire Way to stay separated// Longview Drive ready for Southwest// No rushing Sir Bond

Trainer Mike Harrington discusses some possible chess moves with his two top Kentucky Derby Contenders.  After Sunday’s San Vicente (G2), Creative Cause is likely to ship to Arkansas for the Rebel (G2) in order to stay away from Empire Way and his quest to accumulate Graded Earnings in the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita.  First things first however, Harrington is hoping Creative Cause shows some progression from his juvenile campaign in the San Vicente.  He reiterated that the horse does not necessarily have to win, especially considering he has enough in Graded Earnings for the Derby// With possibly 21 interests in the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn, it’s not surprising that workouts have occurred all throughout the week, even on the Friday before Monday’s race.  Longview Drive, 3^rd in both the Sham (G3) and Delta Jackpot (G3), lit up the track with a 4-furlong move in 48:20.  Najjaar also worked at Oaklawn in what appears on paper to be a good move, but trainer Danny Peitz decided he’ll skip the Southwest and look for a longer race seeing as the son of Jazil likes to drop far back in the early going.  Apprehender, a quick maiden winner at Oaklawn who earned a 98 Beyer speed figure, could be on the outside looking in if the Southwest does not split into two divisions.  He sits towards the bottom of contender earnings and will have to await the draw Saturday. If he does race, it will be without blinkers, which he wore in his debut// Further south and east, Sam F. Davis (G3) winner Battle Hardened worked a modest 4-panels at Palm Meadows.  He is still likely for the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) on March 10// Some good fact-finding by Dick Downey reveals Irish trainer Aiden O’Brien is unlikely to point Wrote, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) and #4 on the Graded Earnings list, to the Kentucky Derby// Yet another impressive maiden winner made himself known Thursday.  Sir Bond dominated in his fourth career start at the Fair Grounds, where he covered the 1 1/16 miles in 1.45:12  to earn a 91 Beyer figure. Trainer Neil Howard said he would like to move ahead slowly with the colt and look for an allowance for his next race.

For complete coverage on Saturday’s El Camino Real Derby and Sunday’s San Vicente check out the race page here

Articles

CA Derby and Oaks Champs vie in El Camino Real Derby (Iron Maidens Thoroughbred Blog)

Kentucky Derby hopefuls get Bay Area showcase (The Sacramento Bee)

San Vicente merely a starting point for Creative Cause (DRF)

West Coast’s Creative Cause begins march towards Kentucky Derby on Sunday (LA Daily News)

Creative Cause set for launch in San Vicente (TTimes)

Carava says American Act is improving (The Downey Profile)

Longview Drive sharpens for crowded Southwest (DRF)

Najjaar declared out of Southwest (The Downey Profile)

Southwest could be split into two divisions (Bloodhorse)

Sir Bond impresses with maiden win (DRF)

Baffert back in the mix (Bloodhorse Blog)

Gotham shaping up strong (DRF)

Battle Hardened breezes at Palm Meadows (Bloodhorse)

Write him off [Wrote] (The Downey Profile)

Castellano made the right call (ESPN)

Kentucky Derby bubble at $120,000 (The Brock Talk Blog)

The long and winding road (Courier Journal Hansen Blog)

Hovdey: Colorless ruling lacks common sense (DRF)

Road to the Derby- El Camino and San Vicente (Courier Journal)

Countdown to the Crown 2/17 (DRF)

Videos

Interview with Michael Matz on Union Rags (Gulfstream Park)

Derby Watch 2/17 (DRF)

Picks

The Commish’s picks- San Vicente (The Downey Profile)

Works

Battle Hardened- PMM- 4F- 49:80- B- 11/14

Howe Great- PMM- 5F- 1.06:05- B- 10/11

Longview Drive- OP- 4F- 48:20- B- 2/57

Najjaar- OP- 5F- 1.01:60- B- 2/58

Exfactor FG- 4F- 50:00- B- 33/64

Notes and bits from web and Twitter:

“Dullahan is back on the track at GP after fighting a cough that effected many on the backside ~ caught the eye jogging this AM - he grew up!”- Grade1Racing via Twitter

“John Shirreffs told me last night that he is serious considering the San Felipe for Blingo...John seems to have a lot of confidence in him”- Larry Zapeye via Twitter

“Ken McPeek told us that Atigun will likely scratch from the Southwest; has a foot issue. 90% out this AM, but we'll see how it develops”- TVGResearch via Twitter

Small field of 6 for Hutcheson, Sheppard not confident with Ever So Lucky// Castellano’s choices// Casse hopeful// 'All Others' favored in KDFW #1

Six were drawn for Saturday’s 7-furlong Hutcheson S. (G2) at Gulfstream Park, with Ever So Lucky the main attraction. Trainer Jonathan Sheppard was not happy with his slow workout Monday, however is unlikely to scratch the colt from the race.   The trainer indicated that if that were to happen, Ever So Lucky will wait a month for the Swale (G2).  Other entries for the Hutcheson include graded stakes-placed Tarpy’s Goal; stakes placed Florida shipper Wildcat Creek; impressive maiden winner and Todd Pletcher-trained Thunder Moccasin; maiden winner Quick Wit; and Il Villano, 3^rd last time out in the Count Fleet Stakes, which was won by Alpha// There are several non-stakes races at Gulfstream Saturday that could get more Derby attention than the Hutcheson when it’s all said and done.  Todd Pletcher and other top trainers have entered promising sophomores in race 3, a competitive optional claimer that includes Big Blue Nation, Spring Hill Farm, and Unbridled Minister// 


Aqueduct has a minor stakes race Saturday on the inner track.  The Sweet Envoy Stakes features Swag Daddy, a multiple stakes winner// Prospective, a tough 2^nd in last Saturday’s Sam F. Davis (G3), is likely to try blinkers in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) seeing as Mark Casse thinks the colt may not be giving 100% in races. Casse also has more under-the-radar hopefuls in Stealcase, pointed to the Fountain of Youth (G2); Dynamical, a maiden that will be shipped to Turfway for the John Battaglia Stakes; and Bluedacious, third in the Grey Stakes (G3) whose next race remains undetermined// 


A very intriguing scenario is developing with Javier Castellano and his Derby contender mounts.  The jockey has the fortune of being the main pilot for Union Rags, Algorithms, Discreet Dancer, Gemologist, and El Padrino- arguably the five top Derby prospects at this time.  The first three could all face each other in the Fountain of Youth (G2), which leaves Castellano with a gut-wrenching choice.  The decision comes down to Union Rags or Algorithms, with Discreet Dancer most likely going to John Velazquez- an early announcement that surprises me given Velazquez would probably prefer Algorithms if Castellano decides to go on Union Rags// 


Plans were confirmed for some top contenders- Gemologist will indeed ship to Arkansas for the Rebel (G2) March 17th and Alpha will skip the Gotham (G3) and head straight to the Wood Memorial (G1) in April// Two nice articles below on I’ll Have Another, the surprise winner of Saturday’s Robert Lewis (G2)// The filly On Fire Baby is questionable for the Southwest.  Last time out she finished third in the Smarty Jones Stakes, her first try against boys.  She has apparently been training very well, and it seems her connections are keen on keeping her on the Derby Trail// The “Official” Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool opens Friday and odds are set.  “All others” are the favorite followed by Algorithms at 8-1.  You can actually get 10-1 on Algorithms through Wynn Las Vegas, an example of how in most cases the Vegas sports books offer better future odds…

Entries

Hutcheson S. (G2)- Gulfstream Park- entries here

Sweet Envoy S.- Aqueduct- entries here

Articles

Hutcheson Preview articles: Bloodhorse / Brisnet / Miami Herald

“All Others” strong favorite, but Algorithms is favored individual in first 2012 Kentucky Derby Futures Pool (Churchill Downs)

Castellano facing tough choices early on trail (DRF)

Alpha likely going straight to Wood (DRF)

Oaklawn Barn Notes 2/8 [Reckless Jerry, Cyber Secret, On Fire Baby, Big Wednesday (Oaklawn Park)

Reckless Jerry on target for Southwest (Bloodhorse)

Can Casse capture the Classics? (Woodbine)

3-year-olds to watch 2/8 (In The Money Blog)

O’Neill hopes he has “another” Derby horse (TTimes)

I’ll Have Another: From bargain to contender (Bloodhorse)

Battle Hardened enters the Derby Trail (The Derby Post)

Who’s hot, who’s not for Feb 8 (DRF)

Kentucky Derby report 2/9 (Brisnet)

Rankings

DRF Top 20 (DRF)

TTimes Triple Crown Poll (TTimes)

Works

Optimizer- OP- 5F- 1.00:40- B- 1/15

Ancient Rome- PMM- 4FF- 48:55- B- 2/11

Longview Drive- SA- 5F- 1.00:00 H- 4/17

Canigotoo- EVT- 4F- 50:00- B- 6/38

Russian Greek- GG- 6F- 1.16:60- H- 1/3

Alpha takes Withers easily, Battle Hardened and I'll Have Another surprise

Every year there is debate between which Derby prep circuit is the toughest and producing the most legitimate contenders for the Kentucky Derby.  The debate is never fully settled until after the first Saturday in May, however the arguments and build-up beforehand are half the fun.  In recent years, the major markets of New York and Los Angeles have been on a bit of a dry spell when it comes to Derby winners.  Saturday offered a chance for each circuit to put their best foot forward, yet the results still garnered mixed feelings and trepidation. 

The Robert Lewis Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita was billed as a rematch between the 1-2 finishers of December’s CashCall Futurity (G1), but instead it was a 43-1 shot who had not raced in over 5 months that stole the show.  I’ll Have Another stalked Isn’t He Clever in the early stages of the race, bided his time along the backstretch, and blitzed to the lead at the top of the stretch to win the Bob Lewis by 2 3/4 lengths.

Well-bred Empire Way made a modest inside move in the stretch to finish 2^nd, followed by Groovin’ Solo who was eventually disqualified when he caused favorite Liaison to clip heels and dump jockey Rafael Bejarano.  Luckily horse and rider were fine afterwards, but it’s worth mentioning it appeared Liaison had thrown in the towel and was not likely to be a factor regardless of the circumstances.   Rousing Sermon was upgraded to 3^rd from 4^th, and was running in his typical late closing fashion.  Many will still back Rousing Sermon feeling he can make a better timed move in the future, but this is the second straight race in which he’s fallen short and sometimes horses just don’t have the knack to close properly.

Sky Kingdom, a horse many believed was sitting on a breakout performance, offered nothing as did the shipper Isn’t He Clever who succumbed to better competition.

Perhaps the West Coast contingent is a step below the others, and the CashCall group in particular was overhyped.  However, maybe they were well beaten by a rising Derby prospect.  I’ll Have Another was highly regarded by trainer Doug O’Neill and supposedly training well since his injury last September in the Hopeful (G1) at Saratoga.  Visually, his performance was impressive and it was not aided by particularly slow or fast fractions.  He earned a very respectable 96 Beyer speed figure and with another classy showing could stamp himself a serious threat for the Derby. 

On the East Coast, most fans were anticipating a dominating performance from Alpha in the Withers (G3), and the Godolphin owned colt did not disappoint. Beginning in his customary fashion just behind pacesetters in the early going, Alpha then responded when asked to make his move in the final turn.  With steady urging he finished over 3 lengths in front of 44-1 shot Speightscity.

Of the three Derby preps Saturday, the Withers field was undoubtedly the weakest.  Only one of Alpha’s five challengers had ever raced in graded stakes company and none had shown much in any open stakes.  Some felt Alpha could prove himself Saturday, but unfortunately a good race against classy competition is still needed.  It’s not his fault however and you can’t take away his last two dominating performances.  The colt seems to be on the right track to Louisville.

Cross-entered in both a maiden at Gulfstream Park and a more ambitious spot in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, Battle Hardened’s connections fortunately chose the latter.  With professional guidance by jockey Julien Leparoux, Battle Hardened ran just off the pace before making a well-timed four-wide surge down the lane. Behind him was Prospective, Reveron, and Ravelo’s Boy who were only separated by a nose. Any of those three could offer a stiff challenge next out in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), especially Prospective, seeing as he came six wide and surged for place.

The Sam F. Davis also showcased disappointments.  Grade 2 winner State of Play set a not-so quick pace and failed to finish well.  He most likely is best suited for turf.  Todd Pletcher’s Ecabroni, the post time favorite, got off to an awkward start, and was never a factor eventually finishing last.

Trainer Eddie Kenneally said The Tampa Bay Derby (G3) is the next logical spot for Battle Hardened.  Barring any new additions to the Tampa circuit, it’s also logical to assume he will be the favorite to win that race and secure a spot in the Kentucky Derby.  However, the field he has faced (and most likely will face next), is suspect and will not catapult him to be among the top group of Derby prospects everyone talks about heading into May. Then again, neither was Animal Kingdom following his victory in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway last year…

Mr. Prankster romped in the WEBN Stakes at Turfway Saturday.  The John Battaglia Memorial Stakes on the same track is the next target// Creative Cause worked Saturday in workmanlike fashion, and is still pointed for the San Vicente (G2)// Triple Crown nominations were released, with the overall theme being the final number of 397 represents a 9% increase from last year.  The full list and pps below// Apparently Hansen’s tail and mane will be colored for his next race, and owner Dr. Hansen would like fans to vote on the color for the Kentucky Derby…

Withers S. (G3)

Winner: Alpha

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

Jockey: Ramon Dominguez

Chart: Equibase Chart

Video: YouTube

Wrap-up articles: DRF / Bloodhorse / Brisnet / TTimes

Sam F. Davis S. (G3)

Winner: Battle Hardened

Trainer: Eddie Kenneally

Jockey: Julien Leparoux

Chart: Equibase Chart

Video: Bloodhorse Replay

Wrap-up articles: DRF / Bloodhorse / Brisnet / TTimes

Robert B. Lewis S. (G2)

Winner: I’ll Have Another

Trainer: Doug O’Neill

Jockey: Mario Gutierrez

Chart: Equibase Chart

Video: Bloodhorse Replay

Wrap-up articles: DRF / Bloodhorse / Brisnet / TTimes

WEBN Stakes

Winner: Mr. Prankster

Trainer: Michael Maker

Jockey: John McKee

Chart: Equibase Chart

Wrap-up articles: Bloodhorse / TTimes

Articles

Creative Cause preps for San Vicente (Bloodhorse)

Hansen, Union Rags, Algorithms top Triple Crown nominations (Brisnet)

Triple Crown Nomination PPs (Brisnet)

Hanen: A horse of a different color (Courier-Journal Hansen Blog)

Works

Creative Cause HOL- 6F- 1.13:80- H- 6/17

Fed Biz SA- 5F- 1.00:60- H- 35/82

Vexor Goldmark- 3F- 36:80- B- 1/1

Ted's Folly FG- 4F- 49:20- B- 27/100

Currency Swap GP- 4F- 51:00- B- 39/41

Atigun OP- 5F- 1.03:20- B- 2/9

Notes and bits from web and Twitter:

“Creative Cause logged blue collar drill - 37.0, 101.20, 113.80 - working hard to shoving pressure. No target today. Went solo. Fitness based”- ClockerDH via Twitter