Baffert, Bejarano grab two Southwest trophies, what did we learn from race?// Algorithms 'unbelievable' in work// more

In just under forty minutes trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Rafael Bejarano etched their names into two Southwest Stakes (G3) trophies at Oaklawn Park Monday.  The first by maiden winner Castaway was the more visually impressive performance when he pulled away from the pack down the stretch to claim victory by 3 3/4 lengths.  Jake Mo and Reckless Jerry completed a dollar trifecta that paid $1,065.  Castaway, who failed to break his maiden in his first five tries, is finally living up to his $435,000 price tag for Coolmore.

Stablemate and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint winner Secret Circle had to work a little harder in the second version of the Southwest.  After sitting just off pacesetter Scatman for most of the mile contest, the two engaged in a spirited duel down the stretch before Secret Circle eventually crossed the wire a half-length in front.  It was another five lengths back to third place finisher Adirondack King.

Aside from Bob Baffert flexing even more muscle along the Kentucky Derby Trail, it’s difficult to get a read on all of the Southwest performers.  Perhaps it’s safe to assume the Arkansas-based contingent is a step below the Southern California, Florida, and New York circuits.  That not only leads us to question the quality behind the victors, but the performances of the winners themselves.  Secret Circle was game, however drifting noticeably in the stretch.  It’s very difficult to imagine him excelling at 10 furlongs. Maybe Castaway is an emerging star putting all the pieces together at the right time, but his final clocking was a second slower than Secret Circle and he had a perfect trip with modest fractions.

El Padrino received a lot of ink Monday ahead of the Risen Star (G2) at the Fair Grounds.  He deserves headlines at this point, but still surprising hardly anyone reported on Lecomte (G3) winner Mr. Bowling and his 5-furlong bullet work ahead of the Risen Star// Pletcher sent several Kentucky Derby contenders to the track for official moves Monday, including Algorithms and Discreet Dancer who are heading to Sunday’s Fountain of Youth.  According to the clocker, Algorithms looked “unbelievable”// Mike Harrington apparently backed off statements last week that Creative Cause will head to the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn.  He will still try to separate him from Empire Way who is set for the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita// A non-intentionally funny article from Yahoo! on the “25 likely Kentucky Derby entries”.  Pretty bold statement to make on Feb 20^th// Another entry from Hansen’s owner in the Courier-Journal blog.  I’m beginning to think alcohol plays a role in these posts…

Results

Southwest Stakes (G3)- Division 1

Winner: Castaway

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

Chart: Equibase chart

Replay: Bloodhorse Replay

Wrap-up articles: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

Southwest Stakes (G3)- Division 2

Winner: Secret Circle

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

Chart: Equibase chart

Replay: Bloodhorse Replay

Wrap-up articles: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

Upcoming:

Saturday- Risen Star Stakes (G2)- entries

Other Articles

Pletcher pair work for Fountain of Youth (Bloodhorse)

Algorithms, Discreet Dancer prep nicely for Fountain of Youth (DRF)

El Padrino faces Jones duo, eight others in Saturday’s Grade II Risen Star (Sports Nola)

Pletcher has ‘El’ of a shot to capture Run For Roses (NY Post)

Drill will focus on one-turn stakes, not Kentucky Derby (DRF)

Tiz Point will get shot, perhaps in San Felipe or SA Derby (DRF)

Under the radar: Holy Bull shows My Adonis headed in right direction (DRF)

Early Kentucky Derby prospects emerging in prep races (Yahoo!)

Leparoux lands Derby favorite, and a bride to be (The Wall Street Journal)

Hansen to the next level (Hansen Blog via the Courier Journal)

Twinspires.com announces new $1 Million Triple Crown showdown (Brisnet)

Video

After the wire 2/20 (Bloodhorse)

Works

Out of Bounds- HOL- 5F- 59:80 H- 2/25

Hierro- SA- 5F- 1.00:80- H- 10/33

How Do I Win- BEL- 4F- 48:64- B- 3/28

Shared Property- FG- 5F- 1.01:60- B- 20/63

Mr. Bowling- FG- 5F- 59:80- B- 1/63

Z Dager- FG- 4F- 50:60- B- 39/68

Class President- FG- 5F- 1.02:00- B- 24/63

Brown Eyed Jozi- OP- 5F- 1.01:00- B- 2/7

Discreet Dancer- PMM- 5F- 1.00:24- B- 1/9

Algorithms- PMM- 4F- 49:09- B- 7/21

Ender Knievel- PMM- 4F- 48:89- B- 5/21

Liberty Bound- PMM- 4F- 48:89- B- 5/21

Creative Cause to face 5 in San Vicente// Official Graded Earnings list released// No dye for Hansen// Optimizer the best in Southwest?

One of the big questions along the Kentucky Derby Trail seems to always be how promising juveniles will fare in their sophomore year.  Recent conventional wisdom suggests they don’t hold up well.  Just last year we saw the descent of early favorites Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve, although both bounced back somewhat after the Derby.  There seems to be something about the slow period of mid-November to February that either causes a horse to grow, mature, and progress or become a shadow of his own self through regression, injury, or ailment.

Sunday should give somewhat of an answer to that question for Creative Cause, currently #2 in the CTD Top 5, who makes his 3-year-old debut in the San Vicente Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita.  However, we may not get a definitive answer on where he stands off a three-and-a-half month layoff for a host of reasons.  Creative Cause is only facing five other sophomores and only one is a stakes winner.  That would be Drill, who has run off the board in his last four starts and seems to be past his prime.  The San Vicente is also only one-turn, which means it could benefit other horses that may not be Derby material but are more suited to sprinting.  Nonetheless, it will be telling to witness Creative Cause’s demeanor, motion, and effort.  For details on his competition there are links to several preview articles below. Also, PPs, race videos, and picks are available on the race page here.  

Churchill Downs released the first Official Graded Earnings list today.  The top 20 after April 28^th are eligible to enter the Kentucky Derby.  As it stands now- and the list will change drastically over the coming months- there is a three-way tie for spots #18 through #20.  Those horses currently have $120,000 in earnings, which is the exact same amount Derby Kitten had in 2011 to fill the final spot in the Derby gate.  The average amount for spot #20 in the past five years has been $132,650.  I’ve been keeping an unofficial Graded Earnings list for the 2012 Kentucky Derby for several weeks and there are some inconsistencies and question marks between it and the official version. Two horses are absent from the rankings- She Digs Me and Seven Lively Sins.  One would then assume they are off the trail although it has not been reported to the public.  Furthermore, Todd Pletcher’s Overdriven made the list despite recent quotes from the trainer indicating it’s nearly impossible the colt can make it May 5^th.

Trainer Kenny Smith thinks Reckless Jerry is sitting on a big effort in Monday’s Southwest as long as he gets a better trip than he did in the Smarty Jones Stakes.  D. Wayne Lukas believes Optimizer is the best horse in the probable Southwest field, but says the colt needs more distance.  Even if the race were 10 furlongs I have a feeling bettors would disagree with his statement, seeing as Optimizer has been off the board in his last three races// According to both trainer and jockey of Lady of Fifty, the filly does not necessarily need the early lead to win the El Camino Real// Nice feature on My Adonis, who will meet Hansen again, this time in New York in the Gotham Stakes (G3).  Steve Haskin thinks My Adonis is a serious threat to pass Hansen in the stretch at Aqueduct.

Speaking of Hansen and the Gotham, the Aqueduct stewards ruled against the dyeing of his mane and tail.  In my opinion the whole idea and buzz surrounding it amount to nothing.  I’m all for promoting the sport in unique ways and don’t consider myself too much of a traditionalist, but the idea to color the horse would not bring new permanent fans to the sport or attract positive attention.  Frankly, would anyone aside from a four-year-old that likes carousels really care to vote on a color?  Hopefully the story will now go away…

Upcoming Graded Races:

El Camino Real Derby (G3)- PPs, race videos, picks and more here

San Vicente (G2)- PPs, race videos, picks and more here

Articles

San Vicente Previews: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

Shippers offer stern test for Hollendorfer pair in El Camino (DRF)

Lady of Fifty runs with males in El Camino Derby (San Francisco Chronicle)

A Derby candidate in Pegram’s stable? (Princeton Daily Clarion)

Oaklawn Barn Notes 2/16 [news on Reckless Jerry, Optimizer, and Atigun] (Oaklawn Park)

New York stewards deny color request [for Hansen] (Courier Journal Blog)

More on Hansen’s color rejection (TTimes)

I’ll Have Another earns his first [pedigree profile] (Bloodhorse)

Haskin’s Derby Trail: My Adonis to take on Hansen again in Gotham Stakes (Bloodhorse Blog)

More added to Union Rags’ readiness (The Downey Profile)

Stepping in the gate (ESPN)

Updated Ragozin numbers for Derby preps (TTimes)

Hutcheson Stakes review [video] (TwinSpires)

Kentucky Derby fantasy picks (Forbes Online)

The Kentucky Derby’s confusing gambling options (Yahoo!)

Graded Earnings

Official list (Churchill Downs)

Handicapper Picks:

The Commish’s picks- El Camino (The Downey Profile)

Works

Reckless Jerry- OP- 4F- 49:80- B- 10/38 (Good)

Majestic Stride- OP- 3F- 36:00 B- 1/12 (Good)

Right to Vote- PMM- 4F- 48:40- B- 2/27

Mr. Style- PMM- 4F- 49:23- B- 9/27

Fort Loudon- CRC- 6F- 1.14:40- B- 1/3 (reported late, occurred 2/15)

Stoney Fleece- HOL- 4F- 50:20- H- 16/18

Fed Biz gets 97 Beyer, Wood might be next// Southwest looks crowded// ‘All Others’ remain favorite in KDFW

Fed Biz earned a 97 Beyer speed figure for his much buzzed-about allowance at Santa Anita Thursday.  That number puts him among the top 10 in his class for speed.  Trainer Bob Baffert mentioned the Wood Memorial (G1) could be a target, which would basically give him one shot to get enough earnings for the Kentucky Derby// Todd Pletcher hopes to work Discreet Dancer on Monday and have him ready for the Fountain of Youth (G2)// The potential field for the Southwest could swell to 13//  “All others” remain the favorite in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool #1 after day one.  Union Rags was the individual favorite at 8-1 while Algorithms slid to 17-1. All this as of 9pm Friday// Princess Arabella, one of 6 fillies nominated to the Triple Crown, is entered in an allowance Sunday at Santa Anita// more…

Upcoming

Hutcheson Stakes (G2)- race page with PPs, race replays, articles, and picks here

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #1

Live Odds

Articles

KDFW has field as 3-5 favorite (DRF)

KDFW Pool: When nothing means something (A Leg Up Blog)

Taking a shot with two value plays in pool 1 (DRF)

Crystal Ball [Derby future wagering from Ed DeRosa] (TwinSpires Blog)

Summer Sun has nothing on Derby scramble (St. George Daily Spectrum)

Pletcher reveals plans for classic prospects (Brisnet)

Atigun to shoot for Southwest (DRF)

Hollendorfer trio tops El Camino nominees (Bloodhorse)

Princess Arabella looks like short price against four foes (DRF)

Countdown to the Crown Feb 10 (DRF)

Toby Keith on ‘Reckless’ path to Derby (Bloodhorse)

Video:

Derby Watch 2/10 (DRF)

Works

Done Talking- LRL- 6F- 1.13:00- H- 1/1

Shkspeare Shaliyah- BEL- 3F- 36:62- B- 5/14

Stoney Fleece- HOL- 4F- 50:80- H- 28/29

Casual Trick- PMM- 4F- 48:02- B- 1/36

Picks

The Morning Line: Hutcheson Stakes (The Derby Post)

Notes and bits from web and Twitter:

On Fire Baby will be pointed toward the $125,000 Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes @OaklawnRacing on March 10- Brian Zipse via Twitter

Carla Gaines says Midnight Transfer is "doing great". Could be headed for showdown with Fed Biz in San Felipe- TVGResearch via Twitter

Small field of 6 for Hutcheson, Sheppard not confident with Ever So Lucky// Castellano’s choices// Casse hopeful// 'All Others' favored in KDFW #1

Six were drawn for Saturday’s 7-furlong Hutcheson S. (G2) at Gulfstream Park, with Ever So Lucky the main attraction. Trainer Jonathan Sheppard was not happy with his slow workout Monday, however is unlikely to scratch the colt from the race.   The trainer indicated that if that were to happen, Ever So Lucky will wait a month for the Swale (G2).  Other entries for the Hutcheson include graded stakes-placed Tarpy’s Goal; stakes placed Florida shipper Wildcat Creek; impressive maiden winner and Todd Pletcher-trained Thunder Moccasin; maiden winner Quick Wit; and Il Villano, 3^rd last time out in the Count Fleet Stakes, which was won by Alpha// There are several non-stakes races at Gulfstream Saturday that could get more Derby attention than the Hutcheson when it’s all said and done.  Todd Pletcher and other top trainers have entered promising sophomores in race 3, a competitive optional claimer that includes Big Blue Nation, Spring Hill Farm, and Unbridled Minister// 


Aqueduct has a minor stakes race Saturday on the inner track.  The Sweet Envoy Stakes features Swag Daddy, a multiple stakes winner// Prospective, a tough 2^nd in last Saturday’s Sam F. Davis (G3), is likely to try blinkers in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) seeing as Mark Casse thinks the colt may not be giving 100% in races. Casse also has more under-the-radar hopefuls in Stealcase, pointed to the Fountain of Youth (G2); Dynamical, a maiden that will be shipped to Turfway for the John Battaglia Stakes; and Bluedacious, third in the Grey Stakes (G3) whose next race remains undetermined// 


A very intriguing scenario is developing with Javier Castellano and his Derby contender mounts.  The jockey has the fortune of being the main pilot for Union Rags, Algorithms, Discreet Dancer, Gemologist, and El Padrino- arguably the five top Derby prospects at this time.  The first three could all face each other in the Fountain of Youth (G2), which leaves Castellano with a gut-wrenching choice.  The decision comes down to Union Rags or Algorithms, with Discreet Dancer most likely going to John Velazquez- an early announcement that surprises me given Velazquez would probably prefer Algorithms if Castellano decides to go on Union Rags// 


Plans were confirmed for some top contenders- Gemologist will indeed ship to Arkansas for the Rebel (G2) March 17th and Alpha will skip the Gotham (G3) and head straight to the Wood Memorial (G1) in April// Two nice articles below on I’ll Have Another, the surprise winner of Saturday’s Robert Lewis (G2)// The filly On Fire Baby is questionable for the Southwest.  Last time out she finished third in the Smarty Jones Stakes, her first try against boys.  She has apparently been training very well, and it seems her connections are keen on keeping her on the Derby Trail// The “Official” Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool opens Friday and odds are set.  “All others” are the favorite followed by Algorithms at 8-1.  You can actually get 10-1 on Algorithms through Wynn Las Vegas, an example of how in most cases the Vegas sports books offer better future odds…

Entries

Hutcheson S. (G2)- Gulfstream Park- entries here

Sweet Envoy S.- Aqueduct- entries here

Articles

Hutcheson Preview articles: Bloodhorse / Brisnet / Miami Herald

“All Others” strong favorite, but Algorithms is favored individual in first 2012 Kentucky Derby Futures Pool (Churchill Downs)

Castellano facing tough choices early on trail (DRF)

Alpha likely going straight to Wood (DRF)

Oaklawn Barn Notes 2/8 [Reckless Jerry, Cyber Secret, On Fire Baby, Big Wednesday (Oaklawn Park)

Reckless Jerry on target for Southwest (Bloodhorse)

Can Casse capture the Classics? (Woodbine)

3-year-olds to watch 2/8 (In The Money Blog)

O’Neill hopes he has “another” Derby horse (TTimes)

I’ll Have Another: From bargain to contender (Bloodhorse)

Battle Hardened enters the Derby Trail (The Derby Post)

Who’s hot, who’s not for Feb 8 (DRF)

Kentucky Derby report 2/9 (Brisnet)

Rankings

DRF Top 20 (DRF)

TTimes Triple Crown Poll (TTimes)

Works

Optimizer- OP- 5F- 1.00:40- B- 1/15

Ancient Rome- PMM- 4FF- 48:55- B- 2/11

Longview Drive- SA- 5F- 1.00:00 H- 4/17

Canigotoo- EVT- 4F- 50:00- B- 6/38

Russian Greek- GG- 6F- 1.16:60- H- 1/3