Surprisingly, Bob Baffert did
not allow the drama to build and wait until the last minute to announce his
decision on Super Ninety Nine and Den’s Legacy. Tuesday, he told Churchill
officials that both colts will not point to the Derby. All Baffert mysteries
are not solved however, as we will have to wait a little while longer for his
decision on Code West and Power Broker. That news should come later in the week
when he’s on the Churchill grounds and looks over both horses, however even
after that there will be lingering questions on the health of Govenor Charlie. The
colt finally jogged around the Churchill track Tuesday- as opposed to just
jogging (I erroneously reported yesterday he hadn’t yet made an appearance)-
but Mike Welsch labeled his gallop just “average”// Welsch said Normandy
Invasion was the “star of the show” before alluding to rumors the colt has lost
weight since the Wood Memorial. Trainer Chad Brown didn’t seemed concerned and
says, “I’m right where I want to be with him”// Frac Daddy continues to make a
very good impression around the Churchill oval as does stablemate Java’s War//
Vyjack was “sharp” but if you take note of trainer Rudy Rodriguez’s comments
and the unconventional equipment they have to use, the colt is still a bit of a
head case// Full reports and videos can be found below// As for upcoming
official breeze announcements: Goldencents is scheduled for a 6-furlong breeze
Thursday; Itsmyluckyday may or may not work Thursday; Java’s War and Frac Daddy
will work Saturday; Palace Malice will work with blinkers and Mike Smith aboard
Sunday// There are 8 or 9 probables for Saturday’s Derby Trial (G3), a race in
which the winner receives 20 points towards the Kentucky Derby. Titletown Five
is a definite starter, and his connections D. Wayne Lukas and Football Hall of
Famer Paul Hornung have every intention of going to the Derby if they get the
requisite points. Other probables include Demonic, Officer Alex, Forty Tales,
Ruble, Treasury Bill, and Zee Bros// Speaking of D. Wayne Lukas, there is a
nice feature on him from the Courier Journal linked below// more…
Oxbow with Gary Stevens
aboard went 5-furlongs in 1.01 flat Monday morning at Churchill Downs. Mike
Welsch said he was headstrong in the beginning, but “galloped out really well”.
Watching his workout video (linked below) I really don’t like his action along
the backstretch. He is clearly bothered, climbing, and has no fluidity in his
stride. Nonetheless, trainer D. Wayne Lukas was very pleased and hopes Stevens
learned from the Arkansas Derby that he needs to “finesse” Oxbow as opposed to
grabbing him early// Code West “finished nicely” in his five panel breeze,
however stablemate Power Broker was completely swallowed up by workmate
Midnight Lucky down the stretch. Both Baffert trainees are on the outside
looking in on the standings// Vyjack was briefly spotted Monday during an early
morning jog around the track, and trainer Rudy Rodriguez is unsure of when he
will post a serious breeze// Welsch commented Frac Daddy made a great appearance,
despite not having an official timed move// Interesting to note that Govenor
Charlie has not been seen on the track for two days at Churchill. His absence
is especially troubling considering the recent news of foot issues// more...
Sunday was a day of important
workouts at Churchill Downs with Verrazano, Revolutionary, Mylute, Normandy
Invasion, and Will Take Charge all getting serious time on the strip. Likely
morning line favorite Verrazano was the headliner with Gary Stevens the
surprising rider. Apparently Verrazano was slow in the early going and needed
some urging to catch up to his stablemate. Once he did, the two were
essentially neck and neck down most of the stretch. Mike Welsch from the Daily Racing Form labeled the work
simply “Good, not a wow”. Trainer Todd Pletcher on the other hand said it was
“excellent” and Verrazano “got over the track nicely”// Revolutionary finished
his 4-furlong work the best of the bunch according to Welsch. Three-time Derby
winner Calvin Borel guided the son of War Pass along the rail most of the way
as expected. Pletcher said, “we might as well let him get used to it”// Rosie
Napravnik was aboard Mylute who Welsch said went well, although he shut down
just after the wire. His final time of 47:80 was the second fastest of 81
horses going the same 4-fulrong distance// Normandy Invasion was “a little
rank” in the early going of his 4-panel breeze, but eventually settled down.
Welsch explains trainer Chad Brown has been trying to get Normandy Invasion
more forwardly placed in the early stages of his races// D. Wayne Lukas’ Will
Take Charge made a strong closing move during his extended one mile breeze,
although jockey Jon Court had to urge him along in the final strides// Over at
Payson Park in Florida, Orb had an official 5-furlong work before traveling to
Kentucky. Trainer Shug McGaughey said it was “perfect” seeing as Orb saved his
best strides for the end// Full workout times, reports, and videos from Sunday can
be found below// The point standings continue to be a topic of debate and
confusion mainly due to Bob Baffert, who seems to force the spotlight on
himself this time of year. Just last week he was quoted as saying, “and then
there was one,” alluding to Govenor Charlie representing his lone Kentucky
Derby starter. Now, Baffert is not ruling out four of his trainees- Super
Ninety Nine (#18), Den’s Legacy (#20), Code West (#23), and Power Broker (#27).
The first two are set to work at Santa Anita Wednesday, after which Baffert
will decide whether to point for the Derby or not. The latter two colts are
already at Churchill, but Baffert will make a decision on their status later in
the week when he can observe them in person// Todd Pletcher was mum on next
race plans for Saturday’s Coolmore Lexington Stakes (G3) winner Winning Cause.
He said a decision will be made as late as next weekend// As expected, Falling
Sky will officially go to the Kentucky Derby, “as long as he breezes like we
want him to” according to trainer John Terranova// Trainer Paul Aguirre said
Sunday that Tiz a Minister (currently #24) will go to the Derby if he’s
eligible. The colt is set to race Saturday at Hollywood Park, but Aguirre has
no reservations about wheeling him back in just a week if need be// more…
Rosie Napravnik, who fell
short in the “contest” to ride Revolutionary by WinStar and Todd Pletcher,
picked up a Derby mount nonetheless on Mylute. The Tom Amoss trainee will be a
big price May 4th, but Napravnik is definitely pleased to be going to the big
dance for the second consecutive year// Pletcher mentioned on Steve Byk’s radio
show Tuesday that Edgar Prado is the likely rider for Charming Kitten, another
probable Derby starter who will go off at long odds// Gary Stevens will retain
the mount on Oxbow, despite a poor ride in the Arkansas Derby (G1). Trainer D.
Wayne Lukas thinks Stevens learned a lot from the experience and will keep
Oxbow more forwardly placed in the Derby// Trainer Rudy Rodriguez appeared in
Lexington Tuesday for his hearing in front of the Kentucky Horse Racing
Commission. He was approved for a training license despite recent medication
violations, but his Derby contender Vyjack will be under video surveillance
24/7 while stabled at Churchill Downs// Word came Tuesday that the connections
of Tiz A Minister, currently right on the cusp of qualifying for the Derby, are
strongly considering pointing for the race. Tiz a Minister was 4th last time
out in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) with no apparent excuse// Speaking of the
Kentucky Derby leaderboard, there is some confusion over the last few spots.
Several sources, including the latest official standings submitted by Churchill
Downs, still have Super Ninety Nine and Code West at spots #18 and #21 respectively.
However, Santa Anita has Bob Baffert quoted as stating “and then there was
one”, which suggests Govenor Charlie is his lone entrant and Super Ninety Nine
is out. Also, the official Kentucky Derby website has both Code West and Super
Ninety Nine removed from the list. So, while most signs point to their absence,
no official statements have been issued// According to Trakus data, Java’s
War’s wide trip in the Blue Grass (G1) resulted in the colt traveling 52
additional feet compared to runner-up Palace Malice. That margin equates to a
six-length victory if both would have traveled the same distance// For
Saturday’s Lexington Stakes at Keeneland (G3) we’re hearing more about horses
NOT pointing for the Kentucky Derby instead of trainers making last ditch
efforts to get in. The filly Pure Fun is going against males just to get in a
race before her main target of the Kentucky Oaks (G1). Examen’s trainer Tom
Proctor essentially said he could care less about the Derby and instead will
focus on the Swaps (G1) as a long-term goal. Todd Pletcher’s lone Lexington
Stakes entrant Winning Cause will also likely skip the ‘Run for the Roses’ even
with a good result Saturday. Other probables for the Lexington Stakes include
Cerro, Hip Four Sixtynine, Johnny Handsome, Pick of the Litter, Title
Contender, and Where’s Dominic// more…
"Todd Pletcher tells
ATR listeners that Edgar Prado the leading candidate to ride Charming Kitten
for the Ramseys in Kentucky Derby"- Steve Byk via Twitter
“Paul Aguirre, the trainer
of Tiz a Minister, said owner Stephen Young is still contemplating a Derby
start” - Jay Privman via DRF
CTD Analysis: Normandy Invasion’s strong runner-up
finish in last week’s Wood Memorial (G1) went a long way to quiet all the
Remsen (G2) bashers, but Overanalyze’s 4 1/4 length victory in the Arkansas
Derby (G1) should all but silence them. The Remsen, a 1 1/8 mile race for
two-year-olds in late November has failed to be a key race in recent Kentucky
Derbies, and it looked as if the trend would continue with the continuous
off-the-board performances of it’s top three finishers in the early part of the
year. Now the Remsen looks to be responsible for two Derby starters, which is
more than such storied juvenile races as the Champagne (G1), CashCall Futurity
(G1), and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).
You will
probably still get a good price on Overanalyze in the Kentucky Derby. The Beyer
speed figure from the Arkansas Derby didn’t crack 90 (88), which puts the colt
on the very low end of recent prep winners. If you don’t subscribe to Beyer,
perhaps the BRIS figure of 96 gives you a little more comfort, not to mention
the relative ease Overanalyze put away nine rivals after racing wide most of
the way. The Oaklawn circuit has taken its share of lumps this Derby prep
season and you have to be skeptical of what the future holds for most the
Arkansas Derby (G1) entrants, but visually you can’t ask anything more from
Overanalyze.
Runner-up
Frac Daddy earned enough points to move onto Churchill Downs, but I wouldn’t
label his performance promising seeing as he had the perfect inside stalking
trip yet was still beaten in a slow race by over four lengths. It was not the
most dissapointing display however, as that award goes to Oxbow who attempted a
new off-the-pace running style that turned out to be a disaster. The colt
clearly did not like watching horses in front of him- or the dirt in his face
for that matter- and never got into the race. Nevertheless trainer D. Wayne
Lukas will still point for the Kentucky Derby (G1) and likely plan for a more
forward position in the early going.
CTD Analysis: Almost getting left in the gate was
no bother to jockey Julien Leparoux and Java’s War in the Blue Gras Stakes (G1)
at Keeneland. Luckily, Java’s War is the closing type that likes to bide his
time in the back before making a big burst down the stretch. He did just that
Saturday after the 3/4 pole by picking off all foes in front of him one-by-one.
What did we
learn from Java’s War’s performance and the Blue Grass in general? Like recent
years, probably not much. Keeneland’s Polytrack surface is kind to closers and
can take its toll on the frontrunners by the time they get into the stretch.
That fact was painfully evident as favored Rydilluc relinquished the lead to
three horses, including the winner, in the late going. Moreover, a good or poor
performance doesn’t necessarily translate to the same happening at Churchill
Downs three weeks later. Mark Casse was rightfully disappointed with Uncaptured
10th place finish and is most likely skipping the Derby despite having the
points. Many would argue the Blue Grass is proof Uncaptured has digressed from
two to three, but there’s plenty of instances where horses run night and day
differences between Keeneland and Churchill Downs. Plus, we know Uncaptured
likes the Churchill surface based on his two graded stakes victories last Fall.
Back to the
winner, Java’s War’s best race is still probably the runner-up finish to likely
Kentucky Derby favorite Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in March. That race
was on dirt and also generated a career-best Beyer speed figure of 96. Still,
even that performance is not enough to put him in the top five of Derby
choices, however a deep closer can always surprise if the race falls apart from
a hot pace.
2nd place
Palace Malice will move onto the Derby, but how serious can we take a horse that
finished 7th (albeit a troubled trip) and 3rd in his last dirt outings against
questionable company?
Charming
Kitten, who made a nice wide late move, got the show and currently sits as the
last one in the Derby. How much the son of Kitten’s Joy will enjoy the
Churchill dirt and step up in company will be a point of contention for many.
The
Churchill Downs backside is filling up with Kentucky Derby starters earlier
than usual. Verrazano, Overanalyze, and Normandy Invasion were the latest
arrivals Sunday// Vyjack has been hanging out in a hyperbaric chamber recently
after suffering a lung infection and mucus buildup after the Wood Memorial
(G1). Trainer Rudy Rodriguez was hoping Vyjack could fly into Louisville with
the Sunday arrivals from New York, but first has to appear before the Kentucky
Horse Racing Commission in order to get a license. The in-person requirement is
due to Rodriguez having two recent medication violations in New York. Plans are
still to have the Vyjack ready for the Derby// With a number of quick defection
announcements Saturday and Sunday, several horses that were outside the top 20
in points are now gearing up for the longest and toughest race of their life.
Charming Kitten makes the cut, which gives Todd Pletcher five starters. No word
from Bob Baffert (surprise, surprise) on whether Super Ninety Nine, currently
#18 in the standings, will make the trip. It is very likely Baffert will only
saddle one horse, Sunland Derby (G3) winner Govenor Charlie, in the Kentucky Derby//
Falling Sky is another within the top 20 whose connections may opt out of the
Run for the Roses// Although there are still two Kentucky Derby point races to
run, now is the time for workouts to play just as an important role in the news
cycle. There were four key works over the weekend from Orb, Mylute, Black Onyx,
and Will Take Charge. Reports and details below// On one hand, you have to give
credit to WinStar Farms for trying to mix things up by starting a public poll
on who should ride Revolutionary in the Kentucky Derby. On the other hand, you
have to wonder what the jockeys and trainer Todd Pletcher think of possibly
being the bad guy (or gal) who went against the people’s choice. I imagine they’ll
get over it// The Coolmore Lexington (G3) Saturday represents a “Wild Card”
race along the Kentucky Derby point schedule, and could have some serious
implications. The winner gets 20 points, which is currently the exact cutoff
number to make the Derby gate, although a tiebreaker based on non-restricted
stakes earnings would have to take effect seeing as several horses have 20
points. Code West wouldn’t have to worry about a tiebreaker if he were to hit
the board, having accrued 20 points already// more…
CTD Analysis: Many critics are anxious to knock the Risen Star seeing as a 135-1
shot crossed the wire first. There was also nothing visually impressive with
the top six finishers all ending up within 4 lengths of each other. Add the
fact the race was held at the Fair Grounds, and many have already drawn a line
through it.
There is another side to
the coin. The speed figures were not slow- 95 Beyer and 99 BRIS- and you could
make the argument the overall Risen Star field was actually stronger than the
Fountain of Youth when looking at prior speed and accomplishments. The trip Ive
Struck A Nerve endured starting last of the pack, pinballing from the outside
to the rail and back to the outside, was especially remarkable considering the
crowded field and slow fractions. Whether
or not he can duplicate that effort in the Louisiana Derby (G2) remains to be
seen, but it was the kind of tough and diligent performance you must keep in
mind when combing through this year’s Derby past performances.
Runner-up Code West missed
out on the top prize by a nose and displayed determination when finding a
second wind along the rail. He did appear to have the most ideal trip by
starting quickly on the inside and being among the mild pace on the frontend.
Palace Malice, who rounded out the trifecta, took a lot of dirt behind horses
yet didn’t back down when an opportunity to split horses presented itself. He
was a little erratic in the stretch, which may have cost him the race. Oxbow
was in a prime spot into the stretch, but simply ran out of gas. He did race wide for most of the 1 1/16
miles, but you have to wonder if he really wants the added distance.
The favorite Normandy
Invasion had a terrible trip most of the way, starting with a slow break and
bobbled start. It was nice to see him settle in along the backstretch and get
to work late, but his lack of interest in the beginning stages of
almost all of his races does not bode well for the future.
CTD Analysis: For now it seems the legacy of the 2013 edition of the Fountain Of
Youth will unfortunately be the derailment of the once undefeated colt
Violence. The Todd Pletcher trainee was very game off a two month layoff finishing
2nd after sitting close to a wicked pace. The following day it was revealed
Violence suffered a fractured sesamoid and is officially off the Derby trail.
HRTV reported he is retired from racing, however no other outlets have
corroborated that development.
What to make of the winner Orb?
Some were quick to point out he took advantage of the blistering pace and won’t
see that kind of setup in the future, but you can’t fault him for running a
winning race. Considering it was his stakes debut against a strong cast, the
Beyer speed figure came back a very respectable 97, and the opening fractions
of the Kentucky Derby are often torrid, I find no reason to ignore his performance.
Trainer Shug McGaughey has not decided where to go next. If he chooses the
logical Florida Derby (G1) we’ll get a good read on Orb against perhaps the
strongest field prior to the Kentucky Derby.
It was more than seven
lengths back to third place finisher Speak Logistics, and that’s probably as
close as he or any of the also-rans will be if they face more top Derby
contenders along the trail. Majestic Hussar could learn to harness some of his
early energy, but that’s easier said than actually training him to do so. He
most likely doesn’t want to go farther in distance either.
Top shelf Derby
prospect Uncaptured is still on the mend from several injuries. His trainer
Mark Casse is hoping for a return to racing by the second or third week of
March, but the timeframe gets tighter by the day. Uncaptured will hopefully
have his first breeze next week// Super Ninety Nine’s impressive allowance
score at Santa Anita Thursday registered a 100 Beyer speed figure. Trainer Bob
Baffert said Super Ninety Nine and 2nd place Code West would move up to stakes
company next. The latter will probably ship to the Fair Grounds, while Super
Ninety Nine could stay at Santa Anita// Rick Violette says Clawback will most
likely get his first chance to stretch out in the Gotham (G3) March 2 at
Aqueduct// Tour Guide is another sprinter whose connections are looking to
stretch out on the Derby trail. He’ll either go to the Southwest (G3) at
Oaklawn or Risen Star (G2) at the Fair Grounds// Not only was Friday a mere eve
to a big Derby preview day, but it held its fair share of possible key races as
well. One was an impressive debut win at Oaklawn by Big Lute, who won by over 4
lengths. Over at the Fair Grounds, Departing followed up his debut win with an
impressive allowance score. It won’t be surprising to see both colts in stakes
company next// More previews and handicapper picks for the busy Saturday//
more…
"Tim Ice says
Brown Almighty, who worked this morning, is over his lung infection and is
being pointed to the Southwest."- The Downey Profile via Twitter
