Den’s Legacy, Super Ninety Nine out of Derby picture// Updated standings// Churchill activity from Frac, Java, Normandy// Derby Trial probables// more…

Summary:

Surprisingly, Bob Baffert did not allow the drama to build and wait until the last minute to announce his decision on Super Ninety Nine and Den’s Legacy. Tuesday, he told Churchill officials that both colts will not point to the Derby. All Baffert mysteries are not solved however, as we will have to wait a little while longer for his decision on Code West and Power Broker. That news should come later in the week when he’s on the Churchill grounds and looks over both horses, however even after that there will be lingering questions on the health of Govenor Charlie. The colt finally jogged around the Churchill track Tuesday- as opposed to just jogging (I erroneously reported yesterday he hadn’t yet made an appearance)- but Mike Welsch labeled his gallop just “average”// Welsch said Normandy Invasion was the “star of the show” before alluding to rumors the colt has lost weight since the Wood Memorial. Trainer Chad Brown didn’t seemed concerned and says, “I’m right where I want to be with him”// Frac Daddy continues to make a very good impression around the Churchill oval as does stablemate Java’s War// Vyjack was “sharp” but if you take note of trainer Rudy Rodriguez’s comments and the unconventional equipment they have to use, the colt is still a bit of a head case// Full reports and videos can be found below// As for upcoming official breeze announcements: Goldencents is scheduled for a 6-furlong breeze Thursday; Itsmyluckyday may or may not work Thursday; Java’s War and Frac Daddy will work Saturday; Palace Malice will work with blinkers and Mike Smith aboard Sunday// There are 8 or 9 probables for Saturday’s Derby Trial (G3), a race in which the winner receives 20 points towards the Kentucky Derby. Titletown Five is a definite starter, and his connections D. Wayne Lukas and Football Hall of Famer Paul Hornung have every intention of going to the Derby if they get the requisite points. Other probables include Demonic, Officer Alex, Forty Tales, Ruble, Treasury Bill, and Zee Bros// Speaking of D. Wayne Lukas, there is a nice feature on him from the Courier Journal linked below// more…

Updated Kentucky Derby Point Standings 4/23

Articles:

Super Ninety Nine, Den’s Legacy declared from Kentucky Derby (Churchill Downs)

Kentucky Derby update 4/23 (Churchill Downs)

Kentucky Derby workouts: Normandy Invasion has strong gallop [with Mike Welsch Clocker Report video] (DRF)

Frac Daddy gallop 4/23 [video] (Churchill Downs)

Java’s War gallop 4/23 [video] (Churchill Downs)

Trainer Rodriguez guides Vyjack at Churchill (Bloodhorse)

Derby backside buzz with Jill Byrne [video] (Churhcill Downs)

Kentucky Derby horses exercise Tuesday [video] (Courier Journal)

Todd Pletcher discusses his 5 Derby horses (Courier Journal)

Titletown Five among Derby Trial candidates (DRF)

D. Wayne Lukas still looking forward, not back (Courier Journal)

Mane character: Oxbow [with video] (Courier Journal)

Time is money when it comes to Kentucky Derby works (Insider Louisville)

Insider Louisville goes in search of the 2013 Kentucky Derby winner (Insider Louisville)

Shug McGaughey’s Derby Diary (ABR Live)

Bullet Train presents Derby Dreams: Frac Daddy (The Paulick Report)

Making the grade: Normandy Invasion (ABR Live)

Lightly raced 3-year-olds on Derby streak (The Saratogian)

Gary Stevens back at the Kentucky Derby (Idaho Statesmen)

Kentucky Derby jockey hopes to make history [with Krigger video interview] (KTTV)

Crucian Jockeys to tout V.I. at Kentucky Derby (St. Thomas Source)

Rankings:

Derby Top 10 (Left at the Gate)

Top 15 (NY Daily News)

Weekend Review: Thoughts on Fountain of Youth, Risen Star// News on Gotham, Demonic, Violence, Dewey Square

Weekend Derby Points Races

Risen Star (G2)

Winner (pts): Ive Struck A Nerve (50)

2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts):  Code West (20), Palace Malice (10), Oxbow (5)

Chart: Equibase

Beyer/BRIS: 95/99

Replay: YouTube

Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

CTD Analysis: Many critics are anxious to knock the Risen Star seeing as a 135-1 shot crossed the wire first. There was also nothing visually impressive with the top six finishers all ending up within 4 lengths of each other. Add the fact the race was held at the Fair Grounds, and many have already drawn a line through it.

There is another side to the coin. The speed figures were not slow- 95 Beyer and 99 BRIS- and you could make the argument the overall Risen Star field was actually stronger than the Fountain of Youth when looking at prior speed and accomplishments. The trip Ive Struck A Nerve endured starting last of the pack, pinballing from the outside to the rail and back to the outside, was especially remarkable considering the crowded field and slow fractions.  Whether or not he can duplicate that effort in the Louisiana Derby (G2) remains to be seen, but it was the kind of tough and diligent performance you must keep in mind when combing through this year’s Derby past performances.

Runner-up Code West missed out on the top prize by a nose and displayed determination when finding a second wind along the rail. He did appear to have the most ideal trip by starting quickly on the inside and being among the mild pace on the frontend. Palace Malice, who rounded out the trifecta, took a lot of dirt behind horses yet didn’t back down when an opportunity to split horses presented itself. He was a little erratic in the stretch, which may have cost him the race. Oxbow was in a prime spot into the stretch, but simply ran out of gas.  He did race wide for most of the 1 1/16 miles, but you have to wonder if he really wants the added distance.

The favorite Normandy Invasion had a terrible trip most of the way, starting with a slow break and bobbled start. It was nice to see him settle in along the backstretch and get to work late, but his lack of interest in the beginning stages of almost all of his races does not bode well for the future.   

Fountain Of Youth (G2)

Winner(pts): Orb (50)

2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Violence (20), Speak Logistics (10), Majestic Hussar (5)

Chart: Equibase

Beyer/BRIS: 97/102

Replay: YouTube

Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

Violence injured, off Derby Trail: Bloodhorse

CTD Analysis: For now it seems the legacy of the 2013 edition of the Fountain Of Youth will unfortunately be the derailment of the once undefeated colt Violence. The Todd Pletcher trainee was very game off a two month layoff finishing 2nd after sitting close to a wicked pace. The following day it was revealed Violence suffered a fractured sesamoid and is officially off the Derby trail. HRTV reported he is retired from racing, however no other outlets have corroborated that development.

What to make of the winner Orb? Some were quick to point out he took advantage of the blistering pace and won’t see that kind of setup in the future, but you can’t fault him for running a winning race. Considering it was his stakes debut against a strong cast, the Beyer speed figure came back a very respectable 97, and the opening fractions of the Kentucky Derby are often torrid, I find no reason to ignore his performance. Trainer Shug McGaughey has not decided where to go next. If he chooses the logical Florida Derby (G1) we’ll get a good read on Orb against perhaps the strongest field prior to the Kentucky Derby. 

It was more than seven lengths back to third place finisher Speak Logistics, and that’s probably as close as he or any of the also-rans will be if they face more top Derby contenders along the trail. Majestic Hussar could learn to harness some of his early energy, but that’s easier said than actually training him to do so. He most likely doesn’t want to go farther in distance either.    

Updated Points Standings

Weekend Non-Derby Point Races:

Saturday

Mine That Bird Stakes- Sunland Park

Winner: Dry Summer

Chart: Equibase

BRIS: 87

Recap: Bloodhorse

Gentilly Stakes- Fair Grounds

Winner: Sunbean

Chart: Equibase

Beyer: 88

Recap: DRF

Gulfstream Park Race 7- Allowance Optional Claiming (Turf)

Winner: Black Onyx

Chart: Equibase

Sunday

Gulfstream Park Race 3- Allowance Optional Claiming

Winner: City of Weston

Chart: Equibase

Recap: Bloodhorse

Articles:

Orb’s next start undecided, McGaughey says (Bloodhorse)

Louisiana Derby next for Ive Struck A Nerve (Bloodhorse)

Ive Struck A Nerve puts lessons to good use in Risen Star (DRF)

Overanalyze heads Gotham probables (Brisnet)

Demonic will miss San Felipe with bruised foot (DRF)

Dewey Square, Babazonki drill for Palm Beach (Bloodhorse)

Itsmyluckyday gets back to work (Bloodhorse)

Capo Bastone gives Pletcher depth (Union Tribune)

Workouts:

Saturday

Get Happy Mister- OP- 4F- 50:60- B- 27/73

Dynamic Sky- PMM- 5F- 1.00:49- B- 1/16

Honorable Dillon- PMM- 5F- 1.00:56- B- 2/16

Itsmyluckyday- CRC- 4F- 48:80- B- 3/55

Sunday

Texas Bling- OP- 4F- 47:60- B- 1/84

Departing- FG- 4F- 48:20- B- 7/120

Falling Sky- PMM- 6F- 1.14:06- B- 1/1

Java’s War- GP- 5F- 59:30- 2/33

Dewey Square- GP- 5F- 1.00:80- B- 3/4 (Turf)

Purple Egg- TP- 5F- 1.00:00- B- 1/25

Quotes and Tweets:

"Work for Verrazano postponed until tomorrow. Too much moisture in the track for [Todd Pletcher] liking."- LGS Racing via Twitter

Pletcher, Baffert plan invasions of Southwest, El Camino, Risen Star, Tampa Derby// List of prep probables// Key workouts// more…

Summary:

A strong hint yesterday has turned into fact with the announcement Bob Baffert will send recent Santa Anita allowance winner Super Ninety Nine to Oaklawn for the Southwest (G3) Monday. The son of the Pulpit will most likely be favored, even though he will face Smarty Jones Stakes winner Will Take Charge and runner-up Texas Bling. Always in a Tiz and Brown Almighty are other Smarty Jones runners returning to the Southwest, while sprint stakes winner Tour Guide was officially ruled out due to shin issues// Bob Baffert not only plans to send an invader to Oaklawn, but could send one or two to Golden Gate Fields for the El Camino Real Derby (G3). Manando and Carving are being considered, with the latter the possible favorite if he joins the cast. Others considered probable for the El Camino are California Derby winner Zeewat; runner-up Wildcat Moon; locals Nina’s Dragon and North Pacific; and Southern California shippers Counting Days and Dice Flavor// My current top choice to win the Kentucky Derby, Verrazano, will make his stakes and two-turn debut in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) March 9. Todd Pletcher chose the race over others due to spacing, avoiding stablemates, and keeping the colt in Florida// Pletcher will also give Palace Malice his first stakes try in the Risen Star (G2) at the Fair Grounds Feb 23. The Fountain of Youth was also under consideration, but the connections say the fact Rosie Napravnik is available to ride at the Fair Grounds tipped the balance. I’m expecting a big effort from Palace Malice in the Risen Star seeing as his recent 2^nd in an allowance at Gulfstream was his first race in over five months and a stunted six furlongs. Others probable for the Risen Star include Oxbow, Normandy Invasion, Code West, Proud Strike, and Golden Soul. It was announced Tuesday that Gary Stevens picked up the mount on Proud Strike. While many were excited over the news, I’m sure Brian Hernandez Jr. has a different take on being pushed out// Delhomme, unraced since a 3rd in the Remsen in November, will return most likely in the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn March 16// A busy worktab Tuesday with Flashback, Super Ninety Nine, Orb, Den’s Lagacy and others hitting the track. Full details below// more…

Articles:

Pletcher pointing Verrazano to Tampa Bay Derby [and news on Delhomme] (DRF)

Baffert sending in Super Ninety Nine for Southwest Stakes (DRF)

Palace Malice confirmed for Risen Star (Brisnet)

El Camino Real Derby highlights holiday weekend (DRF)

Demonic unlikely for San Vicente (DRF)

Park City on the upswing (Courier Journal)

Fortify will try to stop the ‘Rain’ at Meydan (Bloodhorse)
Kentucky Derby Daily- Feb 12 (In The Money Blog)

Kentucky Derby pedigrees (The Saratogian)

‘Road to the Kentucky Derby’ TV schedule announced (Bloodhorse)

Workouts:

Orb- PAY- 4F- 49:20- B- 8/17

Flashback- SA- 4F- 47:80- H- 4/34

Den's Legacy- SA- 4F- 48:00- H- 6/34

Code West- SA- 4F- 48:00- H- 6/34

Belvin- SA- 4F- 47:40- H- 2/34

War Academy- SA- 4F- 47:80- H- 4/34

Super Ninety Nine- SA- 4F- 47:60- H- 3/34

Zeewat- GG- 4F- 49:40- H- 2/9

Quotes and Tweets:

"Flashback just breezed 1/2 in 47.4 cruising"- Bob Baffert via Twitter

"Gary Stevens has picked up the mount on Steve Asmussen's impressive MDN winner Proud Strike in the G2 Risen Star 2/23"- Steve Byk via Twitter

Code West, second to Super 99 in SA alw, heading to FG for Risen Star 2-23, Bob Baffert says. He worked 4f in 48 at SA today- Jay Privman via Twitter

Oxbow jogged about a mile then galloped the same distance after break @ #Oaklawn, preparing for Grade 2 Risen Star @ #FairGrounds on 2/23.- Mary Rampellini via Twitter

Odds set for Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1// Always in a Tiz returning to Oaklawn// Demonic trying to make the grade// more…

Summary:

The big Derby related news for Wednesday was the release of the first pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. ‘All Others’ were installed as the favorite at 9-5 with Shanghai Bobby and Violence the co-favorites of the individual selections at 12-1. Scanning the entire selection list, it’s hard to get excited about any of them. Not only are most of the odds equal or worse than what they will be for the same horses Derby Day (if they make it), the entire concept of taking a horse sub 50-1 in February presents too much of a risk in my opinion. Jennie Rees pointed out Pletcher and Baffert have 10 of the 23 individual betting interests in the pool. For a full list of selections, odds, and a link to PPs, see below// With the news that Always in a Tiz will return to Oaklawn for the Southwest Feb 18, the top three finishers of the Smarty Jones Stakes are ensured of a rematch. Less than a length separated all three, while Always in a Tiz appeared to be just finding his stride while crossing the wire. His connections feel the added distance in the Southwest will only help// Demonic, a maiden winner by a head in early January at Santa Anita, is pointed for either the 7-furlong San Vicente (G2) Feb 17 or the 1 1/16 mile San Felipe (G2) both at Santa Anita// Belvin, a Bob Baffert maiden winner from December, worked five furlongs in 59:20, fastest of 52// more…

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #1

1. Capo Bastone - 30-1   

2. Code West - 50-1

3. Delhomme - 30-1

4. Den’s Legacy - 30-1

5. Dynamic Sky - 30-1

6. Falling Sky - 30-1

7. Flashback -15-1

8. Frac Daddy - 50-1

9. Goldencents - 20-1

10. He’s Had Enough - 50-1

11. Itsmyluckyday - 15-1

12. Mylute - 30-1

13. Normandy Invasion - 20-1

14. Overanalyze - 15-1

15. Oxbow - 20-1

16. Revolutionary - 20-1

17. Shanghai Bobby  - 12-1

18. Super Ninety Nine - 20-1

19. Uncaptured - 20-1

20. Verrazano - 15-1

21. Violence - 12-1   

22. Vyjack (g) - 20-1

23. Will Take Charge - 30-1

24. All Others - 9-5

Click here for PPs

Articles:

‘All Others’ strong choice over Shanghai Bobby, Violence in Derby future pool 1 (Kentucky Derby)

Trainers Pletcher, Baffert have big hands in the first Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Courier Journal)

Finding value in pool 1 of Kentucky Derby future wager (TwinSpires Blog)

Always in a Tiz returning for Southwest (DRF)

Demonic sets sights on graded stakes (DRF)

Oaklawn Notes 2/6 [Oxbow, Titletown Five, Big Lute, For Greater Glory] (Oaklawn Park)

O’Neill hoping to join elite list of repeaters (DRF)

Pedigree Profile: Flashback (Horseracing Nation)

Who’s hot, who’s not for Feb 6 (DRF)

3-year-olds to watch 1/30 - 2/5 (In The Money Blog)

Kentucky Derby report 2/7/13 (Brisnet)

HRTV’s ‘Pursuit of the Crown’ debuts Feb 7 (Bloodhorse)

Rankings:

Kentucky Derby Top 20 (DRF)

CJ Kentucky Derby Media Poll 2/6 (Courier Journal)

Denk’s Derby Index (Bloodhorse Blog)

New York’s Top 10 Derby contenders (Horseracing Nation)

Wireplayers Derby Dozen- Vol 1 (Wireplayers Blog)

Workouts:

Golden Soul- FG- 5F- 1.00:60- B- 2/21

Belvin- SA- 5F- 59:20- H- 1/52

Zeewat- GG- 6F- 1.16:00- H- 1/2

Orb- PAY- 3F- 37:20- B- 5/12

Quotes and Tweets:

“Todd Pletcher and Starlight Racing's Park City, 125-1 in Wynn's #KyDerby Future Wager, returns off layoff Saturday @Gulfstreampark”- J.J. Hysell via Twitter

”Not much going on with the 3yo's this weekend, but a few to watch are Elnaawi (4th Aqu), Little Distorted & Declans Warrior (5th GP) and Dynamic Strike in the Miracle Wood at Laurel and an interesting 1 1/8 mile maiden race at Gulfstream (6th race)"- Steve Haskin via Twitter