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Showing posts with label Ive Struck A Nerve. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ive Struck A Nerve. Show all posts

Weekend Review: Verrazano gets the grade, points// Hear the Ghost opportunistic in San Felipe// Ive Struck A Nerve off trail, Mr Palmer joins it// Key workouts// New Rankings



Tampa Bay Derby (G2)
Winner (pts): Verrazano (50)
2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Java’s War (20), Falling Sky (10), Dynamic Sky (5)
Chart: Equibase
Beyer/BRIS: 101/100
Replay: YouTube
Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet
CTD Analysis:
It’s hard to find anything wrong with Verrazano’s victory in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), his stakes debut and first time going two-turns. He faced some adversity when stumbling out of the gate and sustaining a cut that appears to be more superficial than threatening, and also took dirt in the face from Falling Sky. The final time for the 1 1/16 mile run was 1:43.96, just over a second off the track record, and he earned a high 101 Beyer speed figure. Even more impressive was the fact he needed little urging from John Velazquez. The winning margin over Java’s War was three lengths, and it was another four lengths back to Falling Sky.
There was also something about Verrazano’s easy win in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) that was strange. Although he didn’t necessarily have to be in front, it didn’t look as if he was very comfortable in the early going. Verrazano was not giving Velazquez much trouble, but also didn’t seem as if he wanted to be around horses in general when opting to stay in the center of the track along the backstretch. Perhaps equine psychologist Kerry Thomas will offer more info, but I have to wonder how Verrazano will react in a field of 20, especially if he breaks behind a wall of horses or in tight quarters.  Still, Verrazano is my top pick to win the Kentucky Derby as I feel his talent and speed is unmatched by anyone in his class.
Longshot Java’s War put in a good late run to get the place honors. Considering the pace was not blistering and he had to overcome some traffic issues, it was an admirable performance. Falling Sky also proved to be a good horse, but really had no excuse and probably should be considered a cut below top-shelf competition.



San Felipe (G2)
Winner (pts): Hear the Ghost (50)
2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Flashback (20), Tiz a Minister (10), Goldencents (5)
Chart: Equibase
Beyer/BRIS: 93/99
Replay: Bloodhorse
Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet
CTD Analysis:
The main story coming out of the San Felipe (G2) was the lightning quick speed duel between star attractions Flashback and Goldencents in the middle stages of the race. That development allowed Hear the Ghost to a making a winning sustained run on the outside. Some may believe Flashback and Goldencents are still better than the winner, but you can’t fault him for running a winning race. The pace in the Kentucky Derby is usually brisk and Hear the Ghost may be able to use the tactic again. It was just his third career race and first going two turns so we could be seeing a new superstar emerge from the West.
You obviously can’t discount Flashback from being a serious Derby contender, who still hung on to finish second. It’s important to remember it was only his third career race as well and he not only had to deal with pressure from Goldencents but also Salutos Amigos. Goldencents’ jockey Kevin Krigger was critical of Julien Leparoux’s ride aboard Flashback, complaining Leparoux pressed the pace unnecessarily, but it was Krigger who fired the first shot when splitting the two in the early going. Leparoux did flank Goldencents for the remainder of the backstretch and into the turn, but to me it was not an unprofessional tactic. It will be difficult to change both colts’ running styles, but something will have to give if they meet again.
Third place finisher Tiz a Minister tends to get lost in the shuffle of the San Felipe discussion, but he closed well alongside Hear the Ghost to end up only a length off the lead. Added distance is a concern for the son of Minister’s Wild Cat.


Non-Derby points stakes races:

Private Terms Stakes
Laurel Park
Winner: Mr Palmer
Chart: Equibase
Recaps: Bloodhorse


Fred “Cappy” Capossela Stakes
Aqueduct
Winner: Maleeh
Chart: Equibase


Articles:


Rankings
CTD Top 5 (CTD)
Star-Ledger Top 10 (Star-Ledger)


Workouts:
Saturday
Itsmyluckyday- CRC- 1M- 1.46:00- B- 1/3
Big Lute- OP- 5F- 59:60- B- 1/52
Texas Bling- OP- 5F- 1.01:00- B- 2/52
Sunbean- FG- 4F- 53:20- B- 66/68
My Name Is Michael- PAY- 4F- 49:00- B- 3/18
Always in a Tiz- OP- 4F- 48:60- B- 5/81
Speak Logistics- CRC- 4F- 49.40- B- 19/75
Nina's Dragon- GG- 7F- 1:26.40-         H- 1/2
Manando- SA- 4F- 46:40- H- 1/11

Sunday
War Academy- SA- 5F- 1.00:80- H- 12/52
Super Ninety Nine- SA- 5F- 59:80- H- 2/52
Den's Legacy- SA- 5F- 59:80- H- 2/52
Dice Flavor- HOL- 5F- 1.01:80- H- 24/34
Mylute- FG- 7F- 1.27:40- B- 1/1
Normandy Invasion- PMM- 4F- 48:01- B- 2/39
Positively- PMM- 4F- 48:39- B- 6/39
Palace Malice- PMM- 4F- 49:40- B- 13/39
Delhomme- PMM- 5F- 1.00:88- B- 3/26
Capo Bastone- PMM- 5F- 1.01:48- B- 6/26
Revolutionary- PMM- 5F- 1.01:48- B- 6/26
Shanghai Bobby- PMM- 5F- 1.02:90- B- 18/26

Verrazano, Flashback, Goldencents headline upcoming Derby points races// Proud Strike still on trail// Majestic Hussar, Bradester get time off// Updated future odds// more

Summary:
Entries were drawn for the two upcoming Kentucky Derby points races- the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita and Tampa Derby (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs. No surprises with Flashback and Goldencents squaring off in Southern California as expected and Verrazano set for his stakes and two-turn debut in Florida. All post positions, previews, and PPs can be found below// Aqueduct will host an intriguing sprint, although both headliners, Clawback and Whiskey Romeo, will probably stick to one-turn races for the foreseeable future// Eddie Kenneally is backing off training for both Bradester and Majestic Hussar. The trainer insists nothing is wrong with either, but easing up on Bradester particularly seems puzzling seeing as the colt has only raced once this year// A minority stake in recent Risen Star (G2) winner Ive Struck a Nerve was sold to Boston investment manager Paul Braverman// Proud Strike, who finished 8th in the Risen Star will get another shot to make the Derby in either the Rebel (G2) or Louisiana Derby (G2). Trainer Steve Asmussen thinks he’s better than his last effort// Edgar Prado will ride Palace Malice in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He replaces Rosie Napravnik who has decided to go to Gulfstream Park in order to ride Shanghai Bobby// Speaking of the 2-year-old Champion, trainer Todd Pletcher said Shanghai Bobby is on target for the Florida Derby// Updated Wynn Las Vegas Future odds were released with Flashback the favorite at 9-1 followed by Verrazano at 11-1. While I normally don’t like anything less than 50-1 this far out from the Derby, Itsmyluckyday at 18-1 could be a value play if he continues his good form in the Florida Derby. As Pletcher alluded to Wednesday, the impressive 1-2 runners from the Holy Bull have lost some buzz with the passage of time// more…

Upcoming Derby points races:

Tampa Bay Derby (G3)
Tampa Bay Downs
1 1/16 Miles
Time: 5:15 PM ET
TV: TVG
Previews: Brisnet / Bloodhorse

San Felipe (G2)
Santa Anita
1 1/16 Miles
Time: 6:35 PM ET
TV: TVG


Upcoming non-Derby points stakes races:

Fred “Cappy” Capossela Stakes
Aqueduct
6 Furlongs
Time: 4:52 PM ET
TV: TVG
Previews: NYRA / DRF /


Articles:
Q&A with Vyjack owner (Courier Journal Blog)


Futures
Wynn Las Vegas 3/4 (View From Vegas)
William Hill 3/4 (View From Vegas)


Rankings:
ESPN Top 10 (ESPN)


Workouts:
Uncaptured- OTC- 5F- 1.00:00- B- 1/7 (3/5/13)
Integrity- PMM- 4F- 48:29- B- 1/13
Golden Soul- FG- 4F- 47:80- B- 4/46
He's Had Enough- SA- 3F- 36:20- H- 2/8


Quotes and Tweets:
"Noble Tune set to make first start since @BreedersCup Juvenile Turf in one mile turf allowance Sat. at Tampa Bay. Pataky Kid also entered" - J.J. Hysell via Twitter

Dynamic Sky gets new rider// Uncaptured in good shape for Spiral// Crowded Rebel won’t split// New rankings// more

Mark Casse wasn’t happy with Luis Contreras’ ride on Dynamic Sky in the Sam Davis (G3) several weeks ago, so has named Joel Rosario the new jockey for the upcoming Tampa Derby (G3). The trainer admitted that even a rider change might not be enough to catch the likely short-priced favorite Verrazano. On a conference call Tuesday, Casse also discussed Uncaptured, who remains on target for the Spiral Stakes (G3) at Turfway Park March 23. The Grade 2 winner worked in the morning at Ocala and Casse believes he’s matured physically and mentally from his 2-year-old season// Gary Contessa confirmed that the plan of attack for recent Palm Beach Stakes (G3) winner Rydilluc is the Spiral// As I mentioned yesterday, the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn is shaping up to be a popular race. For now, Oaklawn officials don’t foresee splitting the race into two divisions, although a full field is very likely. Bob Baffert all but confirmed Super Ninety Nine will return for the race with Rafael Bejarano aboard, and D. Wayne Lukas will call on Mike Smith to ride Oxbow. Both trainers will bring other likely entrants, as Baffert will ship Den’s Legacy, while Lukas will send Smarty Jones Stakes winner Will Take Charge. Other probables include Todd Pletchers’ Capo Bastone, Park City, and Delhomme; Ron Ellis trainee Treasury Bill; recent stakes winner Departing; and locals Texas Bling, Always In A Tiz, Carve, Big Lute, So Raise Yourglass and Heaven’s Runway// Lukas also mentioned that recent allowance winner Channel Isle will go in the Louisiana Derby (G2), Red Wings could go to the Spiral, and Titletown Five may go to the Sunland Derby (G3) or Louisiana Derby// Omega Star will be stepping into the deep end Saturday in the San Felipe, which will be his graded stakes debut. Flashback and Goldencents headline the race, but trainer John Sheriffs thinks the added distance will suit him. Dennis O’Neill said in a conference call Tuesday that Goldencents could train up to the Kentucky Derby if he earns enough points from the San Felipe. While many trainers have taken the “less is more” theory heading into the Derby of late, that would make Goldencents very light in seasoning heading into a much longer and tougher race// You can read below for the story behind Verrazano’s name, but I’ll warn you it’s not all that interesting// more…


Articles:
Where they’re going next (The Downey Profile)
Watch list for March (Horseracing Nation)


Rankings:
Jerry Bossert’s Top 15 (NJ Daily News)


Workouts:
Will Take Charge- OP- 6F- 1.13:60- B- 1/2
Oxbow- OP- 6F- 1.13:80- B- 2/2
Code West- SA- 4F- 48:60- H- 15/31
Hear the Ghost- HOL- 4F- 48:60- H- 3/21


Quotes and Tweets:
"Rydilluc came back bouncing out of the Palm Beach so barring any steps backward we are on track for the Spiral on March 23rd"- Gary Contessa via Twitter

"Super 99 now definite for Rebel. Bejarano retains mount. That means Shakin It Up to Sunland Derby 3-24 for Baffert"- Jay Privman via Twitter

"Mark Casse says we've only seen about 75-80% of Dynamic Sky's ability, but cautions that even at 100% he may not be able to beat Verrazano"- ABR Live via Twitter

"Java's War will be entered in Tampa Bay Derby tomorrow and is doing "super" according to Kenny McPeek"- Sid Fernando via Twitter

"Casse: Gunderman could go in Sunland Derby, to Oaklawn or (sounds more likely) Illinois Derby"- Jennie Rees via Twitter

"Dennis O'Neill says that if he has enough points @TheGoldencents will skip the @santaanitapark Derby and train up to the #KYDerby"- ABR Live via Twitter

"Winning 3yo Beyers last week: Departing-97; Clearly Now-96; Vyjack-93; Coolusive-91; Fordubai & Rydilluc-89; Gunderman-87"- DerbyContenders via Twitter

Normandy Invasion returning to Aqueduct with new rider// Pletcher, Baffert contenders hit work tab// Rosie’s tough choice// New Top 5// more…

While the top four finishers of Saturday’s Risen Star will most likely continue on to the Louisiana Derby (G2), fifth place Normandy Invasion will go next in the Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct where trainer Chad Brown says he has raced his best. Jennie Rees reported the colt will get a new rider in the Wood, although a name has yet to be announced. Owner Rick Porter is convinced Normandy Invasion was “so much the best horse” in the Risen Star. You can excuse an owner’s blind faith in his horse, but we also know breaking well from the gate and tractability play just as much of a role in winning a race than a good closing run. The latter trait especially is difficult to train, and it was apparent Normandy Invasion was a handful for a good portion of the race// Rosie Napravnik may have to make a tough decision on where to race March 30. Palace Malice will most likely return to the Fair Grounds for the Louisiana Derby (G2) along with other stakes horses Napravnik rode this past Saturday, however that’s the same day Shanghai Bobby is scheduled to run in the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream// Todd Pletcher had to postpone scheduled workouts for his Florida string Sunday due to the track having too much moisture. Conditions were better Monday and several of his charges zipped through their breezes. Verrazano was the quickest of 38 going five furlongs in 59:21. For complete times on Shanghai Bobby, Revolutionary, Park City, Delhomme, and Overanalyze see below// Apparently trainer Shug McGaughey didn’t know the 50 points earned in Saturday’s Risen Star were likely enough to make the Kentucky Derby until Jennie Rees told him so. I know the point system is new and McGuaghey prides himself on being old school, but I would think any trainer with a prominent 3-year-old would do a little homework immediately following a victory in a key Derby prep. In any case, McGaughey is still leaning towards running in the Florida Derby next as opposed to shipping to New York for the Wood// In case you missed the list of probable runners for this Saturday’s Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct they are Grade 2 winners Overanalyze, Vyjack, and Honorable Dillon along with Escapefromreality, Siete de Oros, Ore Pass, Elnaawi, Sky Captain, West Hills Giant, Alcolite, and Champion Boy// On the West Coast trainer Bob Baffert sent out a trio of Kentucky Derby prospects for morning works at Santa Anita. Flashback led the charge as usual, with a bullet move going six furlongs in 1.11. Stablemate Den’s Legacy was just behind that while Power Broker continued his steady workout routine going four furlongs in a fast 47:80// A new CTD Top 5 with Super Ninety Nine making the cut// more…


Articles:
Pedigree Profile: Orb (Horseracing Nation)


Rankings:
CTD Top 5 (CTD)
Haskin’s Derby Dozen (Bloodhorse Blog)


Workouts:
Little Distorted- CRC- 4F- 49:20- B- 6/19
Malibu High- LAD- 4F- 49:00- B- 2/2
Delhomme- PMM- 5F- 1.00:09- B- 4/38
Verrazano- PMM- 5F- 59:21- B- 1/38
Shanghai Bobby- PMM- 4F- 49:61- B- 32/60
Overanalyze- PMM- 4F- 48:75- B- 17/60
Revolutionary- PMM- 4F- 48:43- B- 13/60
Park City- PMM- 4F- 48:43- B- 13/60
Flashback- SA- 6F- 1.11:00- H- 1/14
Den's Legacy- SA- 6F- 1.11:40- H- 2/14
Manando- SA- 5F- 1.00:00- H- 10/62
Clawback- AQU- 3F- 35:55- B- 1/1
Power Broker- SA- 4F- 47:80- H- 4/27


Quotes and Tweets:

"Will Take Charge galloped a mile and a half under wraps second set after the break Monday at #Oaklawn; pointing for Rebel, said Lukas"- Mary Rampellini via Twitter

"Frak Daddy back to track today. Throat looks much better and we have some forward motion. We have plenty of time to get him ready for Derby"- Kenny McPeek via Twitter

Weekend Review: Thoughts on Fountain of Youth, Risen Star// News on Gotham, Demonic, Violence, Dewey Square


Weekend Derby Points Races


Risen Star (G2)
Winner (pts): Ive Struck A Nerve (50)
2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts):  Code West (20), Palace Malice (10), Oxbow (5)
Chart: Equibase
Beyer/BRIS: 95/99
Replay: YouTube
Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet
CTD Analysis: Many critics are anxious to knock the Risen Star seeing as a 135-1 shot crossed the wire first. There was also nothing visually impressive with the top six finishers all ending up within 4 lengths of each other. Add the fact the race was held at the Fair Grounds, and many have already drawn a line through it.
There is another side to the coin. The speed figures were not slow- 95 Beyer and 99 BRIS- and you could make the argument the overall Risen Star field was actually stronger than the Fountain of Youth when looking at prior speed and accomplishments. The trip Ive Struck A Nerve endured starting last of the pack, pinballing from the outside to the rail and back to the outside, was especially remarkable considering the crowded field and slow fractions.  Whether or not he can duplicate that effort in the Louisiana Derby (G2) remains to be seen, but it was the kind of tough and diligent performance you must keep in mind when combing through this year’s Derby past performances.
Runner-up Code West missed out on the top prize by a nose and displayed determination when finding a second wind along the rail. He did appear to have the most ideal trip by starting quickly on the inside and being among the mild pace on the frontend. Palace Malice, who rounded out the trifecta, took a lot of dirt behind horses yet didn’t back down when an opportunity to split horses presented itself. He was a little erratic in the stretch, which may have cost him the race. Oxbow was in a prime spot into the stretch, but simply ran out of gas.  He did race wide for most of the 1 1/16 miles, but you have to wonder if he really wants the added distance.
The favorite Normandy Invasion had a terrible trip most of the way, starting with a slow break and bobbled start. It was nice to see him settle in along the backstretch and get to work late, but his lack of interest in the beginning stages of almost all of his races does not bode well for the future.   


Fountain Of Youth (G2)
Winner(pts): Orb (50)
2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Violence (20), Speak Logistics (10), Majestic Hussar (5)
Chart: Equibase
Beyer/BRIS: 97/102
Replay: YouTube
Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet
Violence injured, off Derby Trail: Bloodhorse
CTD Analysis: For now it seems the legacy of the 2013 edition of the Fountain Of Youth will unfortunately be the derailment of the once undefeated colt Violence. The Todd Pletcher trainee was very game off a two month layoff finishing 2nd after sitting close to a wicked pace. The following day it was revealed Violence suffered a fractured sesamoid and is officially off the Derby trail. HRTV reported he is retired from racing, however no other outlets have corroborated that development.
What to make of the winner Orb? Some were quick to point out he took advantage of the blistering pace and won’t see that kind of setup in the future, but you can’t fault him for running a winning race. Considering it was his stakes debut against a strong cast, the Beyer speed figure came back a very respectable 97, and the opening fractions of the Kentucky Derby are often torrid, I find no reason to ignore his performance. Trainer Shug McGaughey has not decided where to go next. If he chooses the logical Florida Derby (G1) we’ll get a good read on Orb against perhaps the strongest field prior to the Kentucky Derby. 
It was more than seven lengths back to third place finisher Speak Logistics, and that’s probably as close as he or any of the also-rans will be if they face more top Derby contenders along the trail. Majestic Hussar could learn to harness some of his early energy, but that’s easier said than actually training him to do so. He most likely doesn’t want to go farther in distance either.    



Weekend Non-Derby Point Races:

Saturday

Mine That Bird Stakes- Sunland Park
Winner: Dry Summer
Chart: Equibase
BRIS: 87
Recap: Bloodhorse


Gentilly Stakes- Fair Grounds
Winner: Sunbean
Chart: Equibase
Beyer: 88
Recap: DRF


Gulfstream Park Race 7- Allowance Optional Claiming (Turf)
Winner: Black Onyx
Chart: Equibase


Sunday
Gulfstream Park Race 3- Allowance Optional Claiming
Winner: City of Weston
Chart: Equibase
Recap: Bloodhorse


Articles:


Workouts:
Saturday
Get Happy Mister- OP- 4F- 50:60- B- 27/73
Dynamic Sky- PMM- 5F- 1.00:49- B- 1/16
Honorable Dillon- PMM- 5F- 1.00:56- B- 2/16
Itsmyluckyday- CRC- 4F- 48:80- B- 3/55

Sunday
Texas Bling- OP- 4F- 47:60- B- 1/84
Departing- FG- 4F- 48:20- B- 7/120
Falling Sky- PMM- 6F- 1.14:06- B- 1/1
Java’s War- GP- 5F- 59:30- 2/33
Dewey Square- GP- 5F- 1.00:80- B- 3/4 (Turf)
Purple Egg- TP- 5F- 1.00:00- B- 1/25


Quotes and Tweets:

"Work for Verrazano postponed until tomorrow. Too much moisture in the track for [Todd Pletcher] liking."- LGS Racing via Twitter

Orb times it right in Fountain of Youth, Ive Struck A Nerve shocks Risen Star




Fountain Of Youth (G2)
Winner(pts): Orb (50)
2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Violence (20), Speak Logistics (10), Majestic Hussar (5)
Chart: Equibase
Beyer/BRIS: 97/102
Replay: YouTube
Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

Risen Star (G2)
Winner (pts): Ive Struck A Nerve (50)
2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts):  Code West (20), Palace Malice (10), Oxbow (5)
Chart: Equibase
Beyer/BRIS: 95/99
Replay: YouTube
Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet