Mark Valeski fires bullet ahead of Louisiana Derby// Prospective back to work// Discreet Dancer pulled from Derby Trail// Updated graded earnings, rankings and contender lists

Jockey Rosie Napravnik used every complement she could think of when describing Mark Valeski’s final work ahead of Saturday’s Louisiana Derby (G2).  She seems very confident with her mount and thinks he’s ready for the 1 1/8 miles test// Prospective worked a slow five furlongs in 1:03 flat Tuesday at Churchill Downs.  He’s pointing for either the Wood Memorial (G1) or Blue Grass (G1)// Graham Motion checked in on his UAE Derby (G2) entry Lucky Chappy Tuesday. He said the colt seems to be in great shape. Reports earlier in the week indicated Motion and Team Valor may decide to skip the Kentucky Derby with Lucky Chappy, even if he puts in a good effort Saturday// Churchill Downs released an updated Graded Earnings list which includes late Triple Crown nominees// Todd Pletcher confirmed what many suspected after entries were drawn for the Louisiana Derby- Discreet Dancer is off the Derby Trail.  No clear reason was given other than the fact Pletcher didn’t feel right rushing the colt.  Discreet Dancer will be given some time off before returning to racing later in the year// I finally updated the CTD Contender page here.  The latest list has more deletions than additions due the fact the cut line is more clear- we’re only 39 days out until Derby…

Graded Earnings List

Updated 3/27 (Churchill Downs)

CTD Contenders

Updated 3/27

Articles

Mark Valeski out to prove he’s the real deal (Bloodhorse)

Mark Valeski has brisk work for Louisiana Derby (DRF)

Run for the Rosie begins in La. Derby (Bloodhorse Blog)

Union Rags proves to be a bargain at any price (Gulfstream Park)

Fort Loudon gets another shot at top competition (DRF)

Tuesday’s UAE Derby notes (The Downey Profile)

Motion pleased with Lucky Chappy (DRF)

Derby trail’s most exciting stretch just around the corner (The Saratogian)

Discreet Dancer off Kentucky Derby trail, getting a break (DRF)

Tampa Bay Derby winner Prospective breezes (Bloodhorse)

Asmussen talks about Daddy Nose Best and potential Kentucky Derby (KTSM-TV)

Time running out to make Derby (The Daily Times)

TCI weekend review: Spiral and Sunland [with video] (TwinSpires Blog)

Kentucky Derby Future Wager to close after Louisiana Derby (DRF)

Rankings

Steve Haskin’s Derby Dozen [with video] (Bloodhorse)

Down and Derby Sweet 16 [#5] (Zipse at the Track)

Paulick Derby Index 3/27 (Paulick Report)

Works

Prospective CD- 5F- 1.03:00- B- 3/4

Mark Valeski FG- 5F- 1.00:60- B- 1/14

Z Dager FG- 5F- 50:20- B- 10/19

Liaison HOL- 6F- 1.11:20- H- 2/6

Weekly Top Speed Figures*

Top 3yo winning BRIS figs last week  Daddy Nose Best - 104; Went The Day Well - 103; Bourbon Courage - 101; Hogy - 99; Johannesbourbon – 96

Top 3yo winning Beyers last week: Daddy Nose Best - 100; Went The Day Well - 92; Bourbon Courage - 101; Hogy - 89; Johannesbourbon - 88.

Source: DerbyContenders via Twitter

Gemologist stays perfect in comeback// Discreet Dancer to go in Louisiana Derby// Senor Rain upsets at Santa Anita

Gemologist finish and gallop out 3/16/12 Gulfstream Park Race 3. Video: CTD

2012 has proven to be a good year for once promising juveniles to make their 3-year-old debuts. It’s a welcome trend that has not been the case in recent years.  Friday, it was the debut for Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) winner Gemologist and Hopeful (G1) winner Currency Swap.  While both finished 1-2, it was Gemologist who received all the rightful buzz with his 7-length dusting.  Trainer Todd Pletcher would not commit to a particular next race, but said it would be April 7^th or 14^th.  Gemologist currently sits at #25 on the graded earnings list// Another noteworthy allowance took place at Santa Anita Friday.  Senor Rain upset the field, which included graded stakes placed Brigand and overhyped Hierro and Consulado// Todd Pletcher announced Discreet Dancer will take another stab at the Kentucky Derby with a start in the Louisiana Derby (G2)// All info on Saturday’s Rebel (G2) can be found on the race page here// more…

Rebel (G2)

Race page with PPs, preview articles and picks here

Gemologist- Gulfstream Park Race 3

Chart

Replay

Articles

Gemologist win: DRF / Bloodhorse / Brisnet

News on Gemologist, Discreet Dancer, and Battle Hardened (DRF)

Longshot Senor Rain wins at Santa Anita (Mercury News)

Hansen has it, but can he carry it? (Bloodhorse)

Alpha ’60-40’ for Wood (DRF)

Big field likely for Vinery Racing Spiral (DRF)

Sunland Derby field shows plenty of strength (KTSM-TV)

Countdown to the Crown Week 11 (DRF)

A closer look at the Rebel Stakes (isportsweb)

Horses need graded stakes money to make it to Kentucky Derby (U-T San Diego)

Works

Castaway- SA- 6F- 1.12:40- H- 1/10

Longview Drive- HOL- 6F- 1.13:20- H- 7/14

Fountain of Youth draws 8, will Algorithms stay the favorite?// El Padrino moves well 1st time at FG// Motor City works// more..

It’s a bit surprising to see eight horses entered in Sunday’s Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream.  Given the fact the top three choices are considered by most to be among the upper echelon of Kentucky Derby prospects, you would think the connections of the others would look elsewhere. However, we’ve seen our fair share of overrated 3-year-olds meet their match against supposed inferior competition seemingly every year.  Algorithms was installed as the favorite at 8-5, but it will be interesting to see if that holds.  Union Rags is the Las Vegas favorite to win the Kentucky Derby and while he’s coming off a layoff, his experience and credentials trump the Fountain of Youth favorite.  Discreet Dancer will also get some action at the betting windows, but there should be long prices on the rest// El Padrino, favored in the Risen Star (G2) at the Fair Grounds stepped on that track for the first time Thursday. Todd Pletcher assistant Whit Beckman said he moved well.  Another Risen Star entry, Afford, appeared washy during training Thursday, but trainer Greg Geier said that’s normal.  D. Wayne Lukas thinks Optimizer is in a good spot given he’s a closer and there should be an honest pace to run off of Saturday.  For full stories, handicapper picks, links to free PPs and race videos for the Risen Star and Fountain of Youth go here.

Motor City, winner of the Iroquois S. (G3) at Churchill Downs in October, continues to train for his comeback race.  The son of Derby winner Street Sense worked a quick 5 furlongs at Palm Meadows in 1:01 and 4// Another blog post by Dr. Hansen Thursday.  He seems fed up with hearing the excuse of Union Rags having to run wide in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. A valid point, but if he wanted to really end the conversation he could have left his horse in Florida to face Union Rags again on Sunday// more…

Upcoming:

Fountain of Youth (G2)- race page with PPs, race videos, articles, and picks

Risen Star (G2)- race page with PPs, race videos, articles, and picks

Articles

Fountain of Youth Preview articles: Gulfstream Park / TTimes / Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

Let’s be frank, don’t overlook Discreet Dancer (Sports Network)

El Padrino invades for Risen Star (DRF)

Motor City moves 5 furlongs at Palm Meadows (Bloodhorse)

Pletcher pleased with new FOY distance (The Downey Profile)

All eyes on the 3-year-olds (ESPN)

Pee H Dee and Ring It Up: Lowered expectations? (The Downey Profile)

78 Feet!...ESPN and Trackus, give me a break (Hansen Blog via Courier Journal)

Hansen’s mom: No one’s Mother of the Year (Hansen Blog via Courier Journal)

Kentucky Derby 2012 Point/Counterpoint- Pletcher vs. Baffert (Horse Racing Nation)

Analysis: El Camino Real Derby (Bleacher Report)

History Challenge Answer: Gulfstream Park’s Fountain of Youth full of legends (DRF)

Rankings

Jerry Bossert’s Kentucky Derby Rankings (NY Daily News)

Derby Dozen Volume 2 (Wireplayers Blog)

Picks:

Risen Star: Commish’s Picks (Downey Profile)

Fountain of Youth: That Handicapping Show [Video] (Bloodhorse)

Works

Motor City PMM- 5F- 1.01:88- B- 4/13

Right to Vote PMM- 5F- 1.01:10- B- 2/13

I'll Have Another HOL- 4F- 48:60- H- 5/20

Notes and bits from web and Twitter:

“Have to consider Creative Cause on the right path after watching his authoritative gallop just now. Can't fake that kind of body language”- ClockerDH via Twitter

Baffert, Bejarano grab two Southwest trophies, what did we learn from race?// Algorithms 'unbelievable' in work// more

In just under forty minutes trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Rafael Bejarano etched their names into two Southwest Stakes (G3) trophies at Oaklawn Park Monday.  The first by maiden winner Castaway was the more visually impressive performance when he pulled away from the pack down the stretch to claim victory by 3 3/4 lengths.  Jake Mo and Reckless Jerry completed a dollar trifecta that paid $1,065.  Castaway, who failed to break his maiden in his first five tries, is finally living up to his $435,000 price tag for Coolmore.

Stablemate and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint winner Secret Circle had to work a little harder in the second version of the Southwest.  After sitting just off pacesetter Scatman for most of the mile contest, the two engaged in a spirited duel down the stretch before Secret Circle eventually crossed the wire a half-length in front.  It was another five lengths back to third place finisher Adirondack King.

Aside from Bob Baffert flexing even more muscle along the Kentucky Derby Trail, it’s difficult to get a read on all of the Southwest performers.  Perhaps it’s safe to assume the Arkansas-based contingent is a step below the Southern California, Florida, and New York circuits.  That not only leads us to question the quality behind the victors, but the performances of the winners themselves.  Secret Circle was game, however drifting noticeably in the stretch.  It’s very difficult to imagine him excelling at 10 furlongs. Maybe Castaway is an emerging star putting all the pieces together at the right time, but his final clocking was a second slower than Secret Circle and he had a perfect trip with modest fractions.

El Padrino received a lot of ink Monday ahead of the Risen Star (G2) at the Fair Grounds.  He deserves headlines at this point, but still surprising hardly anyone reported on Lecomte (G3) winner Mr. Bowling and his 5-furlong bullet work ahead of the Risen Star// Pletcher sent several Kentucky Derby contenders to the track for official moves Monday, including Algorithms and Discreet Dancer who are heading to Sunday’s Fountain of Youth.  According to the clocker, Algorithms looked “unbelievable”// Mike Harrington apparently backed off statements last week that Creative Cause will head to the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn.  He will still try to separate him from Empire Way who is set for the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita// A non-intentionally funny article from Yahoo! on the “25 likely Kentucky Derby entries”.  Pretty bold statement to make on Feb 20^th// Another entry from Hansen’s owner in the Courier-Journal blog.  I’m beginning to think alcohol plays a role in these posts…

Results

Southwest Stakes (G3)- Division 1

Winner: Castaway

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

Chart: Equibase chart

Replay: Bloodhorse Replay

Wrap-up articles: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

Southwest Stakes (G3)- Division 2

Winner: Secret Circle

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

Chart: Equibase chart

Replay: Bloodhorse Replay

Wrap-up articles: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet

Upcoming:

Saturday- Risen Star Stakes (G2)- entries

Other Articles

Pletcher pair work for Fountain of Youth (Bloodhorse)

Algorithms, Discreet Dancer prep nicely for Fountain of Youth (DRF)

El Padrino faces Jones duo, eight others in Saturday’s Grade II Risen Star (Sports Nola)

Pletcher has ‘El’ of a shot to capture Run For Roses (NY Post)

Drill will focus on one-turn stakes, not Kentucky Derby (DRF)

Tiz Point will get shot, perhaps in San Felipe or SA Derby (DRF)

Under the radar: Holy Bull shows My Adonis headed in right direction (DRF)

Early Kentucky Derby prospects emerging in prep races (Yahoo!)

Leparoux lands Derby favorite, and a bride to be (The Wall Street Journal)

Hansen to the next level (Hansen Blog via the Courier Journal)

Twinspires.com announces new $1 Million Triple Crown showdown (Brisnet)

Video

After the wire 2/20 (Bloodhorse)

Works

Out of Bounds- HOL- 5F- 59:80 H- 2/25

Hierro- SA- 5F- 1.00:80- H- 10/33

How Do I Win- BEL- 4F- 48:64- B- 3/28

Shared Property- FG- 5F- 1.01:60- B- 20/63

Mr. Bowling- FG- 5F- 59:80- B- 1/63

Z Dager- FG- 4F- 50:60- B- 39/68

Class President- FG- 5F- 1.02:00- B- 24/63

Brown Eyed Jozi- OP- 5F- 1.01:00- B- 2/7

Discreet Dancer- PMM- 5F- 1.00:24- B- 1/9

Algorithms- PMM- 4F- 49:09- B- 7/21

Ender Knievel- PMM- 4F- 48:89- B- 5/21

Liberty Bound- PMM- 4F- 48:89- B- 5/21

Busy Monday work tab for Kentucky Derby contenders// Secret Circle confirmed for Southwest// New rankings// more

Monday was a busy day on the work tab for Kentucky Derby contenders. Julien Leparoux was aboard early Kentucky Derby favorite Union Rags for the first time, and the duo breezed a steady 5 furlongs much to the delight of trainer Michael Matz.  Discreet Dancer and Algorithms, two other leading contenders for the Fountain of Youth (G2), also breezed at Palm Meadows and trainer Todd Pletcher seemed pleased with both.  It was an especially important move for Discreet Dancer who was absent from the worktab last week due to a fever.  All signs are a go for the Fountain of Youth, which is expected to draw a small field of six or seven// Commentary continues to trickle in on the riding change for Union Rags.  Mark Simon at Thoroughbred Times thinks it’s a blessing, and that Castellano rode Union Rags poorly in just about every race// The El Camino Real Derby (G3) Saturday looks to have a robust field and also some imported jockeys.  Leparoux and Alan Garcia are expected to ship in for the Northern California Derby prep// Bob Baffert announced via his Twitter feed that Secret Circle will indeed ship to Oaklawn for the Southwest Stakes (G3).  There were mixed signals on whether the colt would go back to one-turn racing in Santa Anita’s San Vicente or try two-turns again.  With a decision on the latter, Creative Cause will have a little bit of an easier comeback at Santa Anita.  Baffert will also ship recent maiden winner Castaway for the Southwest// Speaking of Baffert, his recent impressive maiden winner Bodemeister earned a high 99 Beyer speed figure for Saturday’s effort at Santa Anita.  He is Dan Illman’s “under the radar” prospect of the week. Of all Derby winner “requirements” that have proven to be untrue recently, it’s only a matter of time before the "never raced as a 2-year-old" factoid falls too. That rule hasn't been broken since the 1882 Kentucky Derby victory by Apollo, but some feel Bodemeister has a legitimate shot to make yet another Derby “requirement” insignificant.

Articles

Fountain of Youth’s top 3 contenders work at Palm Meadows (DRF)

Matz gets new rider for Union Rags (TTimes)

Leparoux, Garcia to ride in El Camino Real (Bloodhorse)

Time is everything on Derby trail (The Daily Times)

Pletcher, Baffert are sure-fire talent agents (Fort Worth Star-Telegram)

Under the radar: Bodemeister (DRF)

The Kentucky Derby winner will not come from the mutuel field (Sports Network)

Pool 1 wager thoughts (DRF Blog)

Rankings
Steve Haskin Derby Dozen 2/13 [with video] (Bloodhorse Blog)

NTRA Top 10 [click on 3-year-old tab] (NTRA)

AP Top 10 Contenders (AP)

Works

Z Dager- FG- 5F- 1.01:60 B- 8/38

Mr. Bowling- FG- 5F- 1.01:20- B- 5/38

Shared Property- FG- 5F- 1.00:80- B- 3/38

Class President- FG- 5F- 1.04:40- B- 36/38

Algorithms- PMM- 4F 49:20- B- 29/68

El Padrino- PMM- 4F- 48:28- B- 8/68

Gemologist- PMM- 4F- 49:77- B- 39/68

Union Rags- PMM- 5F- 1.03:08- B- 9/12

Discreet Dancer- PMM- 5F- 1.00:90- B- 4/12

Liberty Bound- PMM- 5F- 1.00:33- B- 2/12

Hierro- SA- 5F- 1.02:60- H- 28/35

Brother Francis- SA- 4F- 51:00- H- 19/23

Daddy Nose Best- SA- 4F- 50:60- H- 18/23

Unbridled's Note- SA- 4F- 49:00- H- 9/23

Team Six- FH- 5F- 1.01:60- B- 1/1

Out of Bounds- HOL- 6F- 1.13:40- H- 3/11

Secret Circle- SA- 6F- 1.11:60- H- 1/9

Big Screen GP- 4F- 50:00- B- 46/81

Notes and bits from web and Twitter:

“Union Rags breezes 5f in 1:03. Clocker says it was the best he's looked all winter. Came home in :11 3/5, gallop out another 1/8 in :12 3/5”- Steve Haskin via Twitter

Fed Biz gets 97 Beyer, Wood might be next// Southwest looks crowded// ‘All Others’ remain favorite in KDFW

Fed Biz earned a 97 Beyer speed figure for his much buzzed-about allowance at Santa Anita Thursday.  That number puts him among the top 10 in his class for speed.  Trainer Bob Baffert mentioned the Wood Memorial (G1) could be a target, which would basically give him one shot to get enough earnings for the Kentucky Derby// Todd Pletcher hopes to work Discreet Dancer on Monday and have him ready for the Fountain of Youth (G2)// The potential field for the Southwest could swell to 13//  “All others” remain the favorite in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool #1 after day one.  Union Rags was the individual favorite at 8-1 while Algorithms slid to 17-1. All this as of 9pm Friday// Princess Arabella, one of 6 fillies nominated to the Triple Crown, is entered in an allowance Sunday at Santa Anita// more…

Upcoming

Hutcheson Stakes (G2)- race page with PPs, race replays, articles, and picks here

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #1

Live Odds

Articles

KDFW has field as 3-5 favorite (DRF)

KDFW Pool: When nothing means something (A Leg Up Blog)

Taking a shot with two value plays in pool 1 (DRF)

Crystal Ball [Derby future wagering from Ed DeRosa] (TwinSpires Blog)

Summer Sun has nothing on Derby scramble (St. George Daily Spectrum)

Pletcher reveals plans for classic prospects (Brisnet)

Atigun to shoot for Southwest (DRF)

Hollendorfer trio tops El Camino nominees (Bloodhorse)

Princess Arabella looks like short price against four foes (DRF)

Countdown to the Crown Feb 10 (DRF)

Toby Keith on ‘Reckless’ path to Derby (Bloodhorse)

Video:

Derby Watch 2/10 (DRF)

Works

Done Talking- LRL- 6F- 1.13:00- H- 1/1

Shkspeare Shaliyah- BEL- 3F- 36:62- B- 5/14

Stoney Fleece- HOL- 4F- 50:80- H- 28/29

Casual Trick- PMM- 4F- 48:02- B- 1/36

Picks

The Morning Line: Hutcheson Stakes (The Derby Post)

Notes and bits from web and Twitter:

On Fire Baby will be pointed toward the $125,000 Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes @OaklawnRacing on March 10- Brian Zipse via Twitter

Carla Gaines says Midnight Transfer is "doing great". Could be headed for showdown with Fed Biz in San Felipe- TVGResearch via Twitter

Union Rags fires bullet// Algorithms makes Fountain of Youth even tougher// Ever So Lucky ready for Hutcheson// Next race plan set for many…

Union Rags continues to progress well in morning works according to trainer Michael Matz. He worked a bullet 4-furlongs Monday at Palm Meadows Monday, with an added 2-minute lick on the front-end for stretching purposes// Ever So Lucky put in his final work ahead of Saturday’s Hutcheson Stakes (G2).  Who he’ll face, other than impressive maiden breaker Thunder Moccasin and Spring Hill Farm, remains to be seen// Todd Pletcher revealed Holy Bull winner Algorithms will be seen next in the Fountain of Youth (G2) February 26th, which adds even more intrigue to the prospective field that includes Union Rags and Hansen.  Another possible entrant is Discreet Dancer, who spiked a fever and missed his scheduled breeze Monday.  His status for the Fountain of Youth is now in question, although Pletcher thinks they can still make it if he recovers quickly.  He also mentioned El Padrino could ship to the Fairgrounds for the Risen Star (G3) and recent maiden winner Ender Knievel will go to New Mexico for the Sunland Park Derby (G3)// Take Charge Indy, 2^nd to El Padrino in the impressive allowance at Gulfstream, will head for an easier spot in Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and then the Illinois Derby (G2) at Hawthorne// Delta Jackpot (G3) winner Sabercat, who already has plenty of graded earnings for the Kentucky Derby, had his first recorded work of the year.  He’ll turn up next in the San Felipe (G2) March 10 at Santa Anita// As you can see, lots of next race plans announced Monday.  You can keep up with everything on the contender page here// More speed figures from Saturday’s Kentucky Derby preps trickled in.  In addition to Alpha getting a 90 in the Withers and I’ll Have Another earning a 96 in the Bob Lewis, Sam Davis winner Battle Hardened was awarded a somewhat low 81 and WEBN dominant winner Mr. Prankster was given an 88.  BRIS speed figures are also listed below…

Articles

Union Rags Workout articles: Bloodhorse / DRF / TTimes

Santa Anita Derby will be I’ll Have Another’s next target (DRF)

Discreet Dancer misses workout due to fever [& info on Algorithms, El Padrino] (DRF)

Take Charge Indy eyes Tampa Bay Derby [& info on Battle Hardened, Ever So Lucky] (DRF)

Upcoming schedule for Saturday’s winners in flux (Miami Herald)

Breeders’ Cup jinx hits right out of gate (NY Post)

Top six from Trial entered in U.A.E 2000 Guineas (The Downey Profile)

Under the radar: El Padrino (DRF)

I’ll Have Another- the overlay of the century (Sports Network)

Keeneland sale grads prominent on Experimental Free Handicap (Keeneland)

Experimental Free Handicap gives glimmer of a horse’s potential (Ocala.com)

Kentucky Derby preps: the winners (Forbes)

Rankings

Haskin’s Derby Dozen [video only] (Bloodhorse)

Works

Union Rags- PMM- 4F- 48:67- B- 1/27

Liberty Bound- PMM- 4F- 48:70- B- 2/27

Motor City- PMM- 4F- 49:88- B- 17/27

Ever So Lucky- GP- 5F- 1.01:75- B- 4/8

Z Dager- FG- 5F- 1.01:80- B- 15/48

Shared Property- FG- 5F- 1.00:60- B- 2/48

Sir Bond- FG- 5F- 1.01:20- B- 8/48

Class President- FG- 4F- 53:20- B- 42/43

On Fire Baby- OP- 5F- 59:80- B- 1/23

Twelve Hundred- HAW- 5F- 1.01:00- B- 1/24

Hierro- SA- 4F- 49:60- H- 36/43

Sabercat- SA- 4F- 48:60- H- 25/43

Daddy Nose Best- SA- 6F- 1.12:20- H- 1/5

Unbridled's Note- SA- 6F- 1.12:20- H- 1/5

Secret Circle- SA- 7F- 1.24:40- H- 2/3

Out of Bounds- HOL- 5F- 1.03:00- B- 17/20

Speed Figures

Weekend Beyer Speed Figures: Alpha, 90 (Withers), I'll Have Another, 96 (Lewis), Battle Hardened, 81 (Davis), Mr. Prankster, 88 (WEBN)- DRFDerby via Twitter

BRIS Speed Ratings: Mr. Prankster (93), I'll Have Another (101), Battle Hardened (90), Alpha (103)- EJXD2 via Twitter

Notes and bits from web and Twitter:

“Delta Jackpot winner Sabercat had first work of year today. Asmussen says March 10 San Felipe is scheduled first start of year”- DRFInsidePost via Twitter

“Note to Steve Haskin: Sabercat went in 48 flat today at Santa Anita-all was positve vibes going easy with nice flesh”- Morning Works via Twitter

“Blingo, who is 2nd on my #KYDerby 6 Pack is doing real well according to his trainer John Shirreffs-John thought his last work was excellent”- Larry Zapeye via Twitter

“Summer Front, who i had #1 two weeks ago & moved to 6th last week on my #KYDerby 6 Pack-is still missing in action-will drop out of nxt list”- Larry Zapeye via Twitter

Top runners from Sunday fine on Monday// List of probables for Withers, Sam Davis, and Robert Lewis// Alpha, Out of Bounds, Discreet Dancer lead work tab// Updated future odds

On the morning after a fantastic Sunday of racing at Gulfstream Park for Todd Pletcher, he was still non-committal on where Holy Bull winner Algortithms and equally buzzed-about El Padrino would go next. Both apparently came out of their victories in good order.  Next race plans for Discreet Dancer, another Pletcher Derby prospect, seem to be the most concrete with the Fountain Of Youth (G2) penciled in.  It’s also worth noting Pletcher’s ultra impressive 3-year-old filly Broadway’s Alibi who won the other graded stakes Sunday at Gulfstream could face males next time out.  The trainer indicated the Swale (G2) at Gulfstream is on the radar, however the article does state she will not be pointed to the Kentucky Derby// Holy Bull runner-up Hansen is reported to be fine the day after his first defeat and will point for the Fountain of Youth (G2).  That race is shaping to up to be very tough with not only Discreet Dancer, but also the expected return of Union Rags among other strong entries// Alpha put in his one and only work between races Monday at Belmont.  His time for 5 furlongs in 1.01:02 was the quickest of 14. Alpha is expected to be the favorite in Saturday’s Withers (G3).  Other probable starters listed below// State Of Play, who has the same connections as last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom, will make his dirt debut in Saturday’s Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs.  The Grade 2 winner finished 12^th last time out in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1), but has been working well on dirt. Other probables are listed below// All reports are glowing from Ever So Lucky’s workout on Monday.  He’s pointed to the 7-furlong Hutcheson and trainer Jonathan Sheppard expressed no hurry or strong desire to get the colt ready for the Kentucky Derby.  Not sure I’m buying the patient and blasé attitude from a trainer who sent the colt through a 6.5 furlong maiden race, 5 furlong workout, and 8.5 furlong graded stakes in a matter of 16 days last November// Interesting comment below on Saturday’s work from top contender Creative Cause. Despite the fast final time, the clocker said it was “visually unappealing”// Updated future odds were released from Wynn Las Vegas.  Algorithms is the new favorite at 8-1 followed by Union Rags at 10-1.  You can also find a few horses whose connections most likely recently dumped a bunch of money down: Battle Force (60-1), third in the Generous Stakes on turf in November, Big Blue Nation (75-1), who could also be getting wagers from rabid University of Kentucky fans, and Hierro (50-1) are all a little too low at this stage…

Upcoming Graded Stakes Probable Entries:

Robert Lewis (G2)- Liaison, Sky Kingdom, Empire Way, Rousing Sermon, Groovin’ Solo, I’ll Have Another

Withers (G3)- Alpha, How Do I Win, Swag Daddy, King Kid, Speightscity, Tiger Walk, Hakama and Phil Dancer.

Sam F. Davis (G3)- Ecabroni, State of Play, Holy Highway, Prospective, Neck ‘N Neck, Ravelo’s Boy, Burning Time, Battle Hardened, Fox Rises, Reveron

Articles

Pletcher well stocked for Kentucky Derby assault, but tempers enthusiasm (DRF)

Baffert boasts cast of Kentucky Derby hopefuls (TTimes)

Hansen fine after Holy Bull stumble (DRF)

Ever So Lucky will make 3-year-old debut in Hutcheson (DRF)

Alpha looks solid for Withers (DRF)

Sam F. Davis heads day of stakes (DRF)

Algorithms finds winning formula for Holy Bull Stakes (Miami Herald)

Crazy future betting (The Downey Profile)

After the wire 1/30/12 [Video] (Bloodhorse)

The weekend’s winners and losers (ESPN)

Rankings:

CTD Top 5

Mike Watchmaker 1/30/12 (DRF)

Graded Earnings List

CTD- updated 1/29/12

Works

Alpha- BEL- 5F- 1.01:02- B- 1/14

Ever So Lucky- GP- 5F- 59:20- H- 1/4

Z Dager- FG- 4F- 52:60- B- 43/44

Shared Property- FG- 4F- 51:60- B- 41/44

Discreet Dancer- PMM- 5F- 1.02:55- B- 6/16

Hierro SA- 3F- 38:80- H- 9/12

Daddy Nose Best- SA- 5F- 1.00:60- H- 11/39

Out of Bounds HOL- 5F- 1.00:60- H- 6/19

Notes and bits from web and Twitter:

“Algorithms seems to have come out of his race in good shape and was feeling very happy with himself this morning”- Starlight Racing via Twitter

“Breezed ‘ever so lucky’ this morning. He went very good”- Julien Leparoux via Twitter

“Creative Cause disappointed Saturday. Failed to catch target Swiss Tart despite heavy pressure. Visually unappealing despite getting bullet”- Donald Harris via Twitter

“Out of Bounds floating over the cushion. Broke two behind target. Best by half at wire. Out six 112.80. Did not take a breath”- Donald Harris via Twitter