Final day of key Kentucky Derby workouts, media spotlight intensifies

Summary:

Derby week can be hectic and nerve-racking for thoroughbred enthusiasts and handicappers, mostly due to an overabundance of information and opinion.  The Churchill Downs backside is crammed with reporters, horseman, bettors, and fans all looking for angles and stones unturned, which often leads to widely varying conclusions.  Case-in-point is Monday’s workout of Santa Anita Derby winner Midnight Interlude, who ran a bullet over a sloppy track.  Highly regarded analysts such as Steve Haskin and Mike Welsch viewed the move as a major improvement from his last work, but the buzz faded quickly afterwards based on trainer Bob Baffert’s demeanor and honest comments on the colt’s greenness.  I’ll take the quotes at face value and move on: the work was good, the horse is just still growing up and needs something to run at// Brilliant Speed turned in what seemed to be the consensus best work.  Many knock this horse for his awful dirt performance (including me), but all indications are to take him seriously if the track ends up sloppy// Welsch thought Nehro’s workout was not as impressive as his previous based on how he switched leads several times and galloped out poorly. Trainer Steve Asmussen said they weren’t asking for much// Santiva, perhaps the least visually pleasing mover of the past week, turned in a better performance during Monday's official work// Watch Me Go had what Welsch called an “unusual” work but also the best gallop out of all timed workers// Among Monday’s gallopers and joggers, many view Soldat and Archarcharch as horses coming into the Derby better than any// Something to keep in mind with all of these training reports over the last two days is that all impressions are questionable if the track is dry Derby day// I realize the list of daily articles is longer each day, but be sure to check out Joe Drape’s New York Times piece on picking a winner, Gary West’s first morning at Churchill in 2011, and Kentucky Confidential's piece on emotional conformation profiles for Derby contenders.  There are also some good handicapping angles in the Pony Bologna and Zipse at the Derby blogs// more…

Watch Me Go to the Derby// Jaycito absent from Lexington// J P's drama

Summary:

When entries were drawn for the Coolmore Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, the anticipated main attraction was missing from the small field of six.  Jaycito, who has recently assumed the role of this year’s “wise-guy” horse—more for what he hasn’t done than what he’s actually accomplished—was deemed unfit by trainer Bob Baffert.  Amazingly, he’s still pointed for the Kentucky Derby where he will run off of an eight-week layoff and questionable bruised foot.  The Lexington field does include Silver Medallion who needs a 1^st or 2^nd place finish to qualify for the Derby// Another graded three-year-old stakes, the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct, drew a competitive field of former CTD Trackers.  While there are no Derby implications, it will be an important tune-up for Astrology whose connections hope to move on to the Preakness// Apparently The Bloodhorse has a vested interest in Blue Grass Stakes winner Brilliant Speed. They published two articles today touting his pedigree and making excuses for his poor dirt tries// Derby mount-less jockeys are in the news again and we can expect to hear much more on that as draw day nears.  Derby winners Calvin Borel, Mike Smith, and Edgar Prado, plus top money earners Ramon Dominguez, Garrett Gomez, and Martin Garcia are all in limbo// Watch Me Go, currently #21 on the Derby list, worked at Tampa Bay today and was declared headed to Churchill. His team will be rooting against Silver Medallion Saturday plus will need another defection.  Midnight Interlude, guaranteed a spot in the Derby field, put in his final California move (a bullet) before boarding a plane to Louisville// The connections of J P’s Gusto have provided the best soap opera along the Derby trail this year.  The colt has been plagued by knee-jerk decisions from his owners and trainers (emphasis on the plural) and nothing has changed close to two weeks from Derby.  Current trainer Joe Petalino had no idea of the whereabouts or Derby intentions for his horse and surmises he may no longer train him// more…

Kentucky Derby: Eennie meenie miney Mo

Summary:

The national press is picking up on the parity in this year’s Derby.  An ESPN article goes so far as comparing it to a local dog race and betting your favorite numbers.  We get it, it's wide open// More maybes and probably nots today.  Comma To The Top and Watch Me Go, once thought to be out of the Derby picture, are now back in the mix.  The Factor was labeled as “probable” by trainer Bob Baffert and J P’s Gusto is still a possibility according to his owners.  Meanwhile, Jaycito is still not recovering well from his foot injury and doesn’t look likely for Saturday’s Lexington Stakes or the Derby.  With all of the uncertainty and possible defections, Anthony’s Cross, currently #25 will train in hopes of making the field.  While a bland 5^th place finish in his last race might not seem enticing, he has proven himself on the Churchill strip and evenly stacks up with most of the prospective field// Jason Shandler in his Bloodhorse Blog suggests not overlooking the turf and poly horses. I’m still going to do so seeing as they have proven to be inferior on dirt, even in maiden company// Todd Pletcher was in Louisville to monitor Uncle Mo’s morning gallop, in which we never really heard much about how he looked on the track and how he was actually doing.  Instead Pletcher gave more vague quotes about appetite issues (not necessarily with Uncle Mo) and the wait-and-see approach we’ll be hearing a lot about in the coming weeks// Winning Beyer speed figures from two Derby preps were increased today.  Brilliant Speed in the Blue Grass changed to 93 (from 89) and Midnight Interlude in the Santa Anita Derby is now 97 (from 95)// more…

Hits keep coming: Jaycito out of Santa Anita Derby, To Honor And Serve off trail// Mo show rambles on// Caleb’s Posse works towards last-ditch effort

Summary:

The rigors of the Kentucky Derby trail are starting to materialize.  After Thursday’s dissapointing news on Premier Pegasus, the Santa Anita Derby gets another scratch from the next inline favorite Jaycito.  He’s out with a foot abscess and will try to make the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland instead.  Silver Medallion takes the role of favorite// To Honor And Serve, the impressive 2 year-old and questionable 3 year-old is officially off the trail with a suspensory injury// The press loves Uncle Mo and the articles show it// Caleb’s Posse worked 5 furlongs in standard time ahead of the Arkansas Derby// more…

Santa Anita Derby complexion changes// Uncle Mo set for Saturday workout?// More blinkers for Arkansas Derby

Summary:

The Derby trail lost a big one today in Premier Pegasus, who suffered a hairline fracture during a Thursday gallop.  Not only was his last race in the San Felipe spectacular, but his connections offered an intriguing story for the always layered Kentucky Derby picture. As far as hype, he was pegged as a top 3 candidate in most polls and considered a legitimate challenger to Uncle Mo. Now as the Daily Racing Form explains, the Santa Anita Derby is a “whole new race”// Mike Watchmaker points out that Uncle Mo’s low Beyer speed figure from his last race is still faster than any Beyer earned by his upcoming competition in the Wood Memorial.  Sounds like he just has to show up// Add Sway Away as yet another possible entry in the Arkansas Derby who will try blinkers.  He joins Elite Alex and J P’s Gusto as horses that will try the hood in hopes to change their luck// Shackleford and Stay Thirsty were the latest Derby hopefuls to settle in at Churchill Downs// more…

Uncle Mo leads cast for three big preps// Elite Alex altering running style for Arkansas Derby

Summary:

A big day of entries for three Kentucky Derby prep races today.  Healthy field sizes for all, but each race will have its own short-priced favorite// The Uncle Mo show opened in New York today, as the colt’s every move both in-flight and de-boarding were monitored like OJ’s white Bronco.  His opposition looks less than imposing but the race did draw a sizable 10 total entries.  It would be nice to see a hot pace, dirt flying, and maybe some minor traffic issues in order to get a read on how Mo will fair in the Derby// Brian Zipse discusses how important earnings from the Santa Anita Derby will be for all of the entries.  Even notable Kentucky Derby contenders Premier Pegasus (the favorite at 8-5), Jaycito, Anthony’s Cross, and Silver Medallion need an extra boost to secure a place in the gate// The Illinois Derby, Saturday’s opening act, drew a full field of 12 lead by Tampa Bay Derby winner Watch Me Go.  It looks as though any other winner besides him would still fall short on cash needed for May 7 at Churchill Downs// Reports on Elite Alex’s work in blinkers today were all glowing.  Trainer Tim Ritchey admitted they are trying to alter his running style from a closer to showing more speed for the Arkansas Derby.  To me, that sounds a bit risky heading into his final attempt to make the Derby, especially considering The Factor will set a quick pace.  J P’s Gusto will also sport blinkers in the Arkansas Derby, while Caleb’s Posse could potentially forgo the race and head to Keeneland for a last-ditch effort in the Lexington Stakes// Be sure to check out Matt Gardner’s piece on comparing different speed ratings among Derby contenders// more…

Dialed In earns 93 Beyer// Blue Grass field looking crowded// The Factor quick in 6 panel workout

Summary:

Dialed In received a 93 Beyer speed figure from his win in Sunday’s Florida Derby.  While that puts him below other contenders’ winning numbers, the Daily Racing Form points out 3 of last 6 Kentucky Derby winners fired sub 100 Beyers in their final preps.  Zito is in no hurry to ship the colt to Kentucky, while second place Shackleford and fourth Soldat could head to Louisville soon.  Stay Thirsty, Uncle Mo’s stablemate who finished an unimpressive 7th, is also pointing for the Derby and will ship to Churchill on Wednesday// Many new rankings today.  Uncle Mo, Premier Pegasus, and Dialed In assume the top three spots in most (including mine), in no particular order.  I’ve noticed Jaycito sits at #4 in several, which is something I’m having a hard time understanding given his bland last performance and horrendous Breeders Cup. The usually glass-half-full Steve Haskin has surprisingly nothing good to say about To Honor and Serve’s Florida Derby, which I tend to agree// 10 to 11 colts are probable for the Blue Grass Stakes.  A majority of those have turf or synthetic backgrounds, which means none would be taken too seriously in the Kentucky Derby, aside from Santiva// Watch Me Go, winner of the Tampa Bay Derby, is definite for the Illinois Derby on Saturday// The latest graded earnings list was released.  It appears the magic number for making the Derby will be around $250,000, but that’s always a moving target.  The connections of Shackleford are keeping fingers crossed for no long shot wins over the next two weekends and that Master Of Hounds and Comma To The Top stay home// more…

Churchill releases slew of Derby updates// Connections undecided on Flashpoint// Mystery solved on Gourmet Dinner

Summary:

Churchill Downs released three important Derby elements today- #1: the updated graded earnings list, which always differs slightly from other unofficial versions floating around.  #2: list of the 13 horses who filled in a late Triple Crown nomination, among them Tampa Bay Derby winner Watch Me Go and Rushaway Stakes winner Swift Warrior.  #3: preliminary odds for Future Pool #3.  Uncle Mo is still the favorite at 3-1 while there were 8 new additions including Premier Pegasus at 8-1 and other surprise Derby prep winners// Mystery solved on Gourmet Dinner, who ran an impressive second place in the Fountain Of Youth.  Brian Zipse spoke with trainer Steve Standridge and learned he’s definitely off the trail with a sore shin// Elite Alex is confirmed for the Arkansas Derby// You gotta love it when trainers and owners say they’re not eyeing the Kentucky Derby.  The connections of Data Link, Flashpoint, and Comma To The Top all claim racing at Churchill on May 7^th is not a priority. Most of the reasons are actually logical (distance, surface), but we’ll see if they hold that line after a good performance in an upcoming prep// more…

Watch Me Go 'all in'// Sweet Ducky Dubai bound//Mark Cuban talks Derby// Next race plans set for many// Reprized Halo wins OBS// Busy work tab highlighted by bullet from To Honor and Serve

Summary:

Watch Me Go winning Tampa Bay Derby      horsephotos.com

Loads of new Kentucky Derby contender rankings today.  For a guy that sold his company to Yahoo for over 5 billion it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Mark Cuban has Soldat at the top of his list.  However it’s surprising anyone has Mo as low as 4// The Florida Derby lost a serious contender in Sweet Ducky due to being sold to an unknown buyer. He’s headed to Dubai. Tampa Bay Derby winner Watch Me Go, who was nominated to the Triple Crown Sunday for $6,000, may fill the void// I touched on some Beyer numbers yesterday and today we have the BRIS speed ratings: 95 and 100 for Uncle Mo and Premier Pegasus respectively// Pletcher says he’s still leaning towards the Wood for Uncle Mo’s next start, but left the door open for the Florida Derby// The Santa Anita Derby will probably get the top 3 finishers from the San Felipe, although there is a slight possibility Premier Pegasus could go elsewhere// Brethren will go in the Arkansas Derby// Silver Medallion is most likely going to the Louisiana Derby//  Another busy workout day.  To Honor and Serve fires a bullet on the deep Payson surface, while 2 work for the Rebel// Reprized Halo wins the always odd OBS Championship. Noticed he finished last in his last allowance with Dialed In. No indications of heading to the real trail…yet.

Uncle Mo gets 89 Beyer from Saturday's work in company// Premier Pegasus wakes up the West// Tampa Bay stunner and bad ride// Future Pool closes with Uncle Mo favored over the field

Uncle Mo winning The Timely Writer 3/12/11                                                                                                     Horsephotos.com

Summary:

Sorry for the missed feed yesterday. We’ll make this a double// Uncle Mo gets a low 89 Beyer from his workout in The Timely Writer Stakes.  Probably not too concerning see as he was never asked.  Looks like The Wood is still the next target, despite some rumblings of a switch to the Florida Derby// Premier Pegasus put in the performance of the day yesterday.  He earned a 96 Beyer.  Some will analyze the also-rans and make improvement cases for Jaycito and Bench Points, but they were nowhere close and benefitted from the same pace scenario// For the Tampa Bay Derby, I keep thinking of Brethren’s bad ride more than anything else.  Dominguez admits it (kind of)// Mystery surrounds Gourmet Dinner moving his barn to Ocala// Tons of works the past 2 days, all outlined below. The most interesting has to be The Factor going further than he’s ever gone// Future Wager Pool #2 closed with Mo favored over the field.   “The Field” does include Premier Pegasus// You’ll notice photographs will pop up on the site from time to time. Those are made possible by horsephotos.com so please check their site out for race photos and memorabilia. Links will always be on the right column.