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Showing posts with label Sunbean. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sunbean. Show all posts

Vyjack gets new rider for Gotham// Stall hoping Sunbean makes Louisiana Derby field// Oxbow might have tight schedule// Opinions on Pletcher// Updated Wynn odds// more

Owner David Wilkenfeld seems to be enjoying the ride along the Derby trail so far with Vyjack. He was instrumental in the decision to switch riders from Cornelio Velasquez to Joel Rosario for the upcoming Gotham (G3) on Saturday. Wilkenfeld believes Rosario is better with handling aggressive horses like Vyjack// Sunbean could be on the outside looking in again if the Louisiana Derby (G2) overfills. The son of Brahms still hasn’t raced in open company, which goes against him when entering any of 3-year-old graded stakes at the Fair Grounds// Oxbow would likely make the Louisiana Derby (G2) field, and trainer D. Wayne Lukas revealed he could be forced to also run in the Arkansas Derby (G1) two weeks later if the colt needs more points for the Kentucky Derby. That’s an aggressive game plan asking for three races totaling 3 1/2 miles in a five-week span// There’s a pretty damning article from the Examiner on Todd Pletcher “running many talented Derby prospects into the ground”. Not only is the piece disjointed and hard to follow, but it is extremely light on proof// A post on the TwinSpires Blog is both properly validated and more positive on Todd Pletcher and the Kentucky Derby. Ed DeRosa argues there’s another side of the 1-for-31 story and backs it up with probability percentages and general common sense// Updated future odds from Wynn Las Vegas were released with Flashback a solid favorite at 8-1 followed by Verrazano 11-1 and Revolutionary 12-1. Links to the full list and PPs can be found below// Uncaptured continued his workout regimen with a five-furlong breeze in preparation for his sophomore debut in the Spiral (G3) at Turfway Park March 23// more…


Articles:
Where they’re going next (The Downey Profile)


Wynn Las Vegas Future Odds: List / PPs


Rankings:
AP Top 10 (AP)
Sweet 16 (Horseracing Nation)


Workouts:
Will Take Charge- OP- 4F- 48:80- B- 3/7
Titletown Five- OP- 4F- 48:00- B- 1/7
Stormy Holiday- OP- 5F- 1.02:20- B- 2/4
Carving- SA- 3F- 36:40- H- 4/12
Belvin- SA- 4F- 48:40- H- 5/26
War Academy- SA- 4F- 48:20- H- 2/26
Uncaptured- OTC- 5F- 59:80- B- 1/4


Quotes and Tweets:
"Looks like Uncaptured right on target for return in Spiral on March 23. Worked 5f in 59.80 at Ocala this morning"- Jay Privman via Twitter

Scratches inevitable in Risen Star, Fountain of Youth// Uncaptured thriving// Rebel gets early probables// more…


Summary:
There is a good possibility neither of Al Stall’s runners will enter the gate for the Risen Star (G2) on Saturday. Sunbean will most likely go in the undercard Gentilly Stakes on the grass, while Stall mentioned there needs to be quite a few scratches to bring Departing closer to the rail from his outside post// The Fountain of Youth (G2) is also guaranteed a scratch with news that Sky Captain will instead go in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway or Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct March 2. Trainer Mark Casse didn’t like the 7 post due to the speed bias and short run to the first turn at Gulfstream// Casse also mentioned that Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) winner Uncaptured is doing very well and will start next in the Spiral (G3) at Turfway. Uncaptured breezed four furlongs at Ocala Training Center yesterday and Casse said he galloped out another furlong all in 1:00// Next race plans are already set for some Southwest (G3) runners who had to deal with the mud flying behind dominating winner Super Ninety Nine Monday. Always in a Tiz, who was found to have a lung infection following his fifth in the race, will point for the Rebel as will 9th place finisher Texas Bling// The Rebel will also get undefeated Park City, whose honest owner said “Derby Fever” played a part in the aggressive placement for the recent allowance winner// more…

Upcoming Points Races:

Fountain of Youth (G2)
Gulfstream Park
1 1/16 Miles


Risen Star (G2)
Fair Grounds
1 1/16 Miles
Previews: Brisnet / DRF DRF2 / Bloodhorse


Articles:
3-year-olds to watch 2/20 (In The Money Blog)
Kentucky Derby Daily: Feb 20 (In The Money Blog)
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile follow-up (Thoghts On Racing, Life, & More Blog)


Rankings:
Top 20 (DRF)


Workouts:
Uncaptured- OTC- 4F- 47:80- B- 1/4 (Tuesday)
Little Distorted- CRC- 4F- 49:00- B- 3/15
Titletown Five- OP- 6F- 1.14:80- B- 1/1
Clawback- AQU- 1 Mile- 1.46:75- B- 1/1

9 set for El Camino// Capo Bastone returns Saturday// Uncaptured gearing up// Stall confirms 2 for Risen Star// San Felipe probables// more…


Summary:
Entries closed for the El Camino Real Derby (G3), which will be held Saturday at Golden Gate Fields. Nine sophomores will load the gate, with California Derby winner Zeewat and Bob Baffert colts Carving and Manando highlighting the field. Previews and PPs can be found below// Slowly but surely we are checking off key 3-year-old debuts. Uncaptured, last seen barely winning the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill in November, registered his first official workout at Ocala Training Center. He’s on target for the Rushaway Stakes or tougher Spiral Stakes (G3) both at Turfway Park March 23// Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) 3rd place finisher Capo Bastone will return this Saturday at Gulfstream in an allowance. He’s now under the care of Todd Pletcher after being transferred from the barn of John Sadler// As I alluded to last week, trainer Al Stall has now confirmed both Sunbean and Departing will start next in the Risen Star (G2) at the Fair Grounds Feb 23// Jockey Kevin Krigger apparently hot walked Goldencents after his 6-furlong bullet workout at Santa Anita Wednesday. You don’t see that often from a jockey, but you can’t blame Krigger for trying to get as much face time as he can with the colt and trainer Doug O’Neill seeing as top jockeys and their agents have probably pitched O’Neill to dump the lesser-known rider. Goldencents is still on track for a start in the San Felipe March 9th, where he’ll face the much-hyped Flashback// Sunday’s San Vicente (G2) is expected to draw Mudflats, Belvin, Shakin’ It Up, War Academy, Cabello del Cielo, and Treasury Bill// Eddie Kenneally said he will move recent maiden winner Gombey Dancer up to stakes company in the Swale (G2) March 2nd, and will also stretch out Hutcheson (G2) winner Honorable Dillon in either the Gotham (G3) or Tampa Bay Derby (G3)// Gulfstream Park released a video interview with Todd Pletcher in which he discusses the strategy for Violence in the Fountain of Youth (G2), Verrazano’s post-Tampa Derby plans, the delay of training on Delhomme, and the status of Revolutionary and Overanalyze// It looks as if He’s Had Enough has had enough of Flashback and will most likely ship out of California for his next start in either the Gotham or Tampa Derby//

I’m always interested in Kerry Thomas’ behavioral profiling of Kentucky Derby starters. He studies emotional conformation and other behavior of the contenders to determine which horses will react best in a crowded 20 horse field going 10 furlongs. It’s an unorthodox handicapping angle that I fully believe has just as much merit as speed figures and pedigree analysis. However, let’s set the record straight on the recent proclamation that he has picked the winner of the Derby the last two years. Last year, he listed eight(!) horses that possessed the potential winning formula– that’s 40% of the field. While he did say in an online interview that I’ll Have Another was towards the top, he also mentioned 7th and 4th place finishers Union Rags and Went the Day Well right alongside him. In 2011 he liked Animal Kingdom, but put him on even terms with Dialed In who finished 8th. It is impressive he has mentioned the winners, but there have never been clear choices in his analysis. I will still wait anxiously for his 2013 Derby run-down…// more…


Upcoming
2/16/13
El Camino Real Derby (G3)
Golden Gate Fields
1 1/8 Miles
Previews: Brisnet /


Articles:
Kentucky Derby Daily Feb 13 (In the Money Blog)


Workouts:
Oxbow- OP- 5F- 1.02:60 B- 2/6 (Good)
Goldencents- SA- 6F- 1.13:40- H- 1/20
Clawback- AQU- 4F- 48:90- B- 2/14
Uncaptured- OTC- 3F- 35:60- B- 1/7


Rankings:


Quotes and Tweets:
"He's Had Enough likely to travel for next start, to Gotham or TB Derby, according to Dennis O'Neill. San Felipe slight option, too"- Jay Privman via Twitter

“Graham Motion on Cerro: "Most likely we’ll be going to the Palm Beach, but we’ll take a look at the Fountain of Youth as well’ ”- J.J. Hysell via Twitter

Risen Star and Southwest fields come into focus// Will Take Charge breezes at Oaklawn// Pool #1 for Kentucky Derby Future Wager open, analysis rolls in// more


Will Take Charge after breezing at Oaklawn. Photo: Oaklawn Park


Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #1:


Articles:
Pedigree Profile: Verrazano (Horseracing Nation)


Rankings:


Workouts:
Mylute- FG- 4F- 51:00- B- 41/49
Will Take Charge- OP- 5F- 1.00:80- B- 2/23


Quotes and Tweets:
Doug O'Neill reports Know More will return to training soon after time off. "There was nothing specifically wrong with him, just off form.”- J.J. Hysell via Twitter

O'Neill reports Mudflats will go in San Vicente; Goldencents on track for San Felipe. “He’s doing great."- J.J. Hysell via Twitter

Weekend Review: Verrazano steals Saturday spotlight// Revolutionary gets up late in Withers, Flashback has it easy in Robert Lewis// Fallen Sky holds on in Sam Davis

Saturday Derby Points Races:

Withers (G3)
Winner (pts): Revolutionary (10)
2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Escapefromreality (4), Siete de Oros (2), Amerigo Vespucci (1)
Chart: Equibase
Beyer/BRIS: 86/96
Replay: YouTube
Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet
CTD Analysis: The one thing you can count on in the Kentucky Derby every year is that a good number of horses will have rough trips. It is somewhere in the laws of physics and logic that when twenty 3-year-old thoroughbreds spring from a gate and then have to negotiate two turns of a track together, some will get bumped, blocked, and alter course. Most of those contestants falter, slow down, or completely check out of the race.

On Saturday, Revolutionary experienced these obstacles in an eight-horse field in the Withers, but overcame the adversity to win by a neck. I won’t go through his whole trip, because it’s virtually impossible to keep track of the entire series of events. All you need to know is that the Equibase footnotes of his ride include the terms “angled” “climbing” “spun” “forced to idle” “eased” “shuffled”, and some of those more than once. Revolutionary will undoubtedly be a better horse from the experience, and could draw on it come May, but against a better group of horses he might not be able to bail himself out again. Of course, with more forward placement in the early stages and a good trip, he could show his true potential. It’s worth noting, some think he’s incapable of exiting the gate quickly and also shows tendencies of stubbornness that could hinder any advancement. 

It looked as if Escapefromreality was primed to win the Withers until Revolutionary somehow found room for his late charge. Jockey Jose Ortiz appeared to slow his urging of Escapefromreality and clearly did not see the winner breathing down his neck. It was still a good showing for the gelding, who only had restricted maiden and allowances sprint wins on his résumé. Siete de Oros finished in the money (3rd) for the second consecutive time in graded company, and stamped himself a useful stakes player, albeit second tier.     


Sam F. Davis (G3)
Winner (pts): Falling Sky (10)
2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Dynamic Sky (4), My Name Is Michael (2), Speak Logistics (1)
Chart: Equibase
Beyer/BRIS: 92/92
Replay: YouTube
Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet
CTD Analysis: Although jockey Jose Espinoza said the trip was not perfect, Falling Sky had it pretty easy in the Sam Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. After an excellent break from the 8 post, Falling Sky dictated moderate fractions that allowed him to conserve enough energy in the stretch to hold off a charging Dynamic Sky. It’s usually tough to get excited about the winner of the Sam Davis, and this year is no exception. The speed figures from both BRIS and Beyer came back 92. Not terrible, but combined with a visually unimpressive race, doesn’t offer enough incentive to run to Wynn Las Vegas and place a future wager on any of the runners. I have a feeling if the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) on March 9 attracts a decent shipper, that horse could easily upset the current apple cart at Tampa.


Robert Lewis S. (G2)
Winner (pts): Flashback (10)
2nd, 3rd, 4th (pts): Den’s Legacy (4), He’s Had Enough (2), Little Jerry (1)
Chart: Equibase
Beyer/BRIS: 92/95
Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF / Brisnet
CTD Analysis: The Robert Lewis unfolded as boring as expected. With no one challenging the favorite Flashback in the early stages, the son of Tapit was allowed to set slow fractions and leave more than enough in the tank to finish out front easily. The 6 1/4 winning margin was impressive and the competition was not laughable considering a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up and graded stakes winner made-up half the field, but you can’t take much away from any four horse contest where the winner appears to be merely working out. However, we do know Flashback is not one dimensional, seeing as his debut win was a result of stalking just off the pace.  He just needs a signature victory before being considering one the Derby favorites, and the Robert Lewis was not that.

Many are claiming Flashback is now the undisputed leader of the Western division, but until he faces Goldencents in either the San Felipe March 9 or Santa Ania Derby (G1) in April, I’ll reserve judgment on either colt. Both earned low-90 Beyer speed figures in their latest stakes wins, which puts them below the stars of the Florida circuit.

If Flashback is really the freak some believe, you can’t take much away from his stablemate and 2nd place finisher Den’s Legacy. With a quicker pace he could have ran a better race and I’m expecting more from him further down the trail.




Saturday Non-Derby point races:

Hutcheson (G2)
Winner: Honorable Dillon 
Chart: Equibase
Beyer/BRIS: NA/97
Recaps: Gulfstream Park / DRF

Gulfstream Park Race 5: Allowance Optional Claiming
Winner Verrazano
Chart: Equibase
Beyer/BRIS: 105/104
Replay: YouTube
Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF

96 Rocks Stakes
Winner: Mac the Man
Charts: Equibase
Beyer/BRIS: 87/98
Recaps: Bloodhorse / DRF /


Weekend News Summary:
If the prospect of three Derby point races, the always-intriguing Grade 2 Hutcheson, and a prep for the Spiral Stakes (G3) at Turfway failed to spike Derby fever for you, perhaps the somewhat unexpected 16 1/4 length by Todd Pletcher’s Verrazano at Gulfstream Park Saturday made you wish you took that flu shot after all. Granted, Verrazano was expected to win in his second start, but not many thought it would be in such dominating fashion against promising allowance company. Todd Pletcher was obviously pleased and said he needed to time to figure out next race plans. The Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream February 23 doesn’t allow enough spacing, and the Florida Derby (G1) in April is too far away and also reserved for stablemate Shanghai Bobby, so Verrazano’s next race could very well be away from the track he loves// Eddie Kenneally said a stretch-out could be next for Hutcheson (G2) winner Honorable Dillon, although the 7-furlong Swale (G3) remains a possibility as well// Mac the Man is getting some attention for his wire-to-wire win in the 96 Rocks Stakes at Turfway Saturday. He could be the favorite heading into the Spiral (G3) March 23 as long as a big-name contender like Uncaptured doesn’t ship in// Trainer Al Stall had two allowance winners Friday night at the Fair Grounds. Sunbean and Departing both won going two turns for the first time, and Stall will most likely enter both in the Risen Star (G2) on the same track February 23// Gary Stevens, fresh off retirement, rode maiden Tiz the Truth, for Bob Baffert Saturday at Santa Anita. The Hall of Famer guided the colt to an eye-opening 7 3/4 length win in his two-turn debut. The Beyer speed figure came back 94, which already puts him above most Derby prospects- if you’re a believer of those kinds of numbers// Big Lute was another maiden breaker I’ll be keeping tabs on. He won his debut at Oaklawn by 4 3/4 lengths Friday// Early Triple Crown nominations were announced Saturday. A full list with links to PPs can be found below// Purple Egg finally registered an official workout Saturday since being on the sidelines with flu symptoms, while Todd Pletcher ordered breezes for a slew of sophomores Sunday, including Violence and Overanalyze// more…


Articles:
Tiz the Truth breaks maiden under Gary Stevens (Triple Crown Countdown Blog)
Titletown Five returns to work tab (Triple Crown Countdown Blog)
Triple Crown Nominees- List / PPs (Brisnet)


Workouts:
Saturday:
Purple Egg- TB- 4F- 51:40- B- 21/23
Integrity- PMM- 5F- 1.01:30- B- 4/25
Carried Interest- PMM- 4F- 48:90- B- 19/73
Texas Bling- OP- 5F- 1.00:80- B- 2/75
Clawback- AQU- 4F- 50:67- B- 11/14
Majestic Hussar- 5F- 1.00:13- B- 1/28

Sunday:
Violence- PMM- 5F- 1.02:29- B- 15/24
Normandy Invasion- PMM- 5F- 1.01:23- B- 5/24
Capo Bastone- PMM- 5F- 1.02:90- B- 21/24
Overanalyze- PMM- 5F- 1.02:29- B- 15/24
Palace Malice- PMM- 4F- 48:19- B- 6/28
Delhomme- PMM- 4F- 49:09- B- 17/28