Speed figures from Southwest, Rebel already looks crowded// Union Rags vs. Algorithms looms// New Kentucky Derby futures, rankings

As the dust settles from a recent string of Kentucky Derby prep races - four in just three days - writers, handicappers, and fans are observing the trips of the also-rans, looking for a silver lining and clues as to which horses could improve next time out.  Adirondack King, 3^rd place in the second division of the Southwest (G3), fits the bill of a sneaky good performer or possible future “wise guy” horse.  Jockey Stewart Elliott claimed he had nowhere to run in the far turn and was forced to sit and wait in second-to-last place.  Once Adirondack King got through the turn he was able to make a fast closing move for 3^rd, although still 6 lengths behind the winner Secret Circle due to the short stretch.  Trainer John Servis will point the son of Lawyer Ron to the Rebel (G2).  Also pointing for the Rebel will be 2^nd place Scatman, who set the pace in the Southwest and gave Secret Circle all he could handle in the stretch.  Bob Baffert said he’ll also send a horse or two to the Rebel, but which one from his long list of Derby contenders will not be revealed anytime soon// Beyer Speed figures came back for the Southwest.  Secret Circle bested his stablemate Castaway by a 10 point margin (102 to 92)// Wynn Las Vegas published updated future odds just after the Southwest.  Castaway dropped to 35-1 and Secret Circle to 22-1// Trainer Larry Jones commented that both of his charges in the Risen Star (G2), Mr. Bowling and Mark Valeski, will hopefully sit just off the pacesetters Saturday at the Fairgrounds// Buzz is building for Sunday’s Fountain of Youth (G2), which will feature arguably the top two Derby contenders in Union Rags and Algorithms.  Some nice humble quotes from Algorithms owner Jack Wolf who admits his horse benefitted from Hansen’s bad break and Consortium not taking to the track in the Holy Bull (G3).  Michael Matz is very pleased with Union Rags’s physical and mental growth, but reveals the screws will not be fully tightened Sunday because the colt already has enough Graded Earnings for the Derby// Some updates on Steve Asmussen contenders Z Dager, Sabercat, and Daddy Nose Best from the Bloodhorse// Steve Haskin has a new Derby Dozen, yet still has recent San Vicente (G2) 3^rd place finisher Creative Cause at #1.  Reading the description, I’m not sure Steve even agrees with himself// more…

Articles

Baffert will return for Rebel (DRF)

Adirondack King likely to stay for Rebel (DRF)

Scatman probable for Rebel (DRF)

Jones’s trio of 3-year-olds gear up for stakes (DRF)

Algorithms: Formula for success (Courier Journal)

Algorithms vs. Union Rags in 3YO showdown (Bloodhorse)

Union Rags earned luxury of easing into 2012 season (TTimes)

High energy Drill stood out as a yearling (Bloodhorse)

Three of a kind [Steve Asmussen contenders] (Blooodhorse Blog)

Looking back at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (DRF Blog)

An early look at the Kentucky Derby picture (Sports Nola)

23 races and we’ll make a big fuss (TwinSpires)

Tailgate-Illinois Derby and Hawthorne thinking blue (Hansen Blog via Courier Journal)

Futures

Wynn Las Vegas (2/20)

Rankings

Haskin’s Derby Dozen 2/21 [with video] (Bloodhorse)

TTimes Triple Crown poll (TTimes)

Works

Ever So Lucky- GP-5F- 1.00:65- H- 7/11

Big Screen GP- 5F- 59:60- H- 2/11

Optimizer- OP- 3F- 36:20- B- 1/2

Rousing Sermon- HOL- 5F- 1.01:80- H- 5/8

Stoney Fleece- HOL- 5F- 1.02:80- H- 7/8

Weekly Speed Figures 2/13-2/19*
Top 3yo winning BRIS figs last week: Drill-104; Daddy Nose Best-101; Sir Bond-100; Bling King-99; Scatter Joy-97; Points Offthebench-96

3yo winning Beyers last week: Drill-94; Daddy Nose Best-92; Sir Bond-91; Bling King-85; Scatter Joy-85; Points Offthebench-87

*Source: DerbyContenders via Twitter

Fed Biz could be the real deal// Classics unlikely for Thunder Moccasin// Rough trip for Stat's comeback

In general, only stakes race results generate a quick turnaround in the thoroughbred news media world.  Facts, videos, charts, and analysis trickle in hours and sometimes days after the race.  However, when a nearly one million dollar 3-year-old trained by Bob Baffert dominates an optional claiming race at Santa Anita three months before the Kentucky Derby, news tends to spread just as quick, if not quicker. Fed Biz, the lone CTD Contender to have only a maiden win on his resume, handled his step-up to allowance company with ease in the 3^rd race at Santa Anita.  His winning margin was 5 3/4 lengths, and he covered the mile in 1.34:74.  The Baffert charge, who jockey Rafael Bejarano already claimed as his “Derby horse”, will undoubtedly point to a graded stakes next time out. Consulado was behind him for the place and well clear of 3^rd place finisher Blueskiesnrainbows by 6 1/2 lengths//

Todd Pletcher admitted he’s putting Thunder Moccasin in a tough spot for his second race, the 7-furlong Hutcheson Stakes (G2).  However, based on recent training and the fact the 2-3-4 finishers from his maiden score came back to win (2^nd place Panthro has won twice), he feels he has a shot.  Pletcher also revealed he feels Thunder Moccasin would not excel at added distance//

In addition to Fed Biz’s race, another important allowance contest took place Thursday.  Race 8 at Gulfstream marked the return of Pletcher-trained Stat, who was 2^nd to Union Rags last time out in the Saratoga Special (G2) in August.  After a hop at the break and racing wide most of the way Thursday, the best Stat could finish was 4^th, but only a length-and-a-half behind the winner Maan//

Several articles on both the joy and perils of wagering on the Kentucky Derby futures// more…

Articles

Fed Biz impresses on eve of Future Wager (Brisnet)

Fed Biz dominates Santa Anita allowance field (Bloodhorse)

Fed Biz cruises to victory (DRF)

Feb Biz jumps on Triple Crown Trail with allowance win (TTimes)

Bob Baffert has another Kentucky Derby hopeful in Fed Biz (LA Times Blog)

Fed Biz impresses (Zipse At The Track Blog)

Thunder Moccasin move ‘ambitious’: Todd Pletcher (The Downey Profile)

Kinglet swoops late for UAE 2,000 Guineas win (Racing Post)

Empire Way headed to San Felipe (DRF)

Najjaar needs good week to make Southwest run (The Downey Profile)

Algorithms commences classic calculation (Bloodhorse)

Rising Stars: Alpha impresses in New York (The Saratogian)

Ever So Lucky starts outside in Hutheson Stakes (DRF)

Ever So Lucky expected to kick-off sophomore campaign in Hutcheson (TTimes)

Taking a look at potential Kentucky Derby horse Z Dager (Bleacher Report)

For those wise enough to be foolish [Future book wagering] (ESPN)

Kentucky Derby Future Wagers: Bet early, bet often (Forbes Online)

I always believed in futures (Twinspires Blog)

WinStar StableMates Fantasy Derby to open (Bloodhorse)

Video:

Robert Lewis Recap (TwinSpires)

Works

Hammers Terror- FG- 4F- 50:40- B- 20/29

Majestic Stride- OP- 7F- 1.28:00- B- 1/1

Consortium- PMM- 4F- 50:90- B- 36/43

Souper Speedy- PMM- 4F- 51:49- B- 40/43

Mr. Style- PMM- 4F- 49:88 B- 21/43

Night Tide- SA- 5F- 59:00- H- 2/29

Hutcheson Handicapper Picks

Dick’s Picks (The Downey Profile)

Notes and bits from web and Twitter:

Todd Pletcher on Discreet Dancer: bloodwork returned normal, he's doing better; will work Monday and still on track for Fountain of Youth- J.J. Hysell Trifecta Box via Twitter

Mr. Bowling guts it out in LeComte/ Motion exacta in Kitten’s Joy/ Impressive maiden breaker for Pletcher

The Grade 3 LeComte Stakes provided a thrilling finish with Mr. Bowling holding on by a neck over Z Dager, but it’s questionable whether a serious Kentucky Derby contender will come from the race.  The large field was strung-out wide and most appeared to be laboring down the stretch.  Although it wasn’t necessarily visually impressive, the winner did defeat 12 mostly promising sophomores.

Mr. Bowling failed as the favorite in his last race in the Iroquois (G2) at Churchill Downs in November.  His third-place showing was admirable however, especially considering it was not the best of trips darting from the outside, in, and outside again. 

Training steadily since then and posting strong workout times, he was the second favorite in the LeComte.  Jockey Robby Albarado kept the son of Istan in a good spot early just behind the pacesetters and triggered a bold move into the final turn.  A sustained run down the stretch, with a little swerving, was just enough to hold off the charging Z Dager and Shared Property.  The latter had to stay wide almost the entire race and could be heard from down the road. 

Mr. Bowling’s trainer Larry Jones, who is no stranger to the Derby trail, said the Risen Star (G2) would be the next logical target.  Those with high expectations that disappointed included the little Oklahoma-bred Ted’s Folly, graded winner Exfactor who was stretching out for the first time, and Seven Lively Sins who was piloted by leading Fair Grounds jockey Rosie Napravik.

Another 3-year-old stakes (ungraded) was held on turf at Gulfstream Park.  The Kitten’s Joy Stakes was won by Howe Great. Graham Motion trained both the winner who has already won on dirt, and runner-up Lucky Chappy// Tarpy’s Goal, the inaugural CTD Notable performer, got back on track in a 7 furlong optional claimer at Gulfstream.  The son of High Cotton was coming off 5 straight defeats, including a turf try just last weekend// Thursby, a half-brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom, finished 7^th in his latest maiden race at Gulfstream.  The colt has now finished 12^th, 10^th, and 7^th// Todd Pletcher had an impressive debut winner in the 9^th race at Gulfstream named Liberty Bound.  The Mr. Greely-sired colt beat his stablemate Z Vilna by a winning margin of 4 and a quarter lengths// Steve Haskin offers his first Derby trail column, which focuses on the top 12 contenders based on pedigree// Nick Zito’s Casual Trick had a strong workout at Palm Meadows.  The trainer had said he will skip next weekend’s Holy Bull, but you never know…

Graded Stakes Results:

LeComte S. (G3)- Fair Grounds

Winner: Mr. Bowling

Chart: Equibase chart

Video: Bloodhorse replay

Wrap-up articles: Bloodhorse / Brisnet / DRF / TTimes / The Times-Picayune

Other Results:

Kitten’s Joy Stakes- Winner: Howe Great- chart / video

Gulfstream Race 9 MSW- Winner: Liberty Bound- chart / video

Articles

Team Valor pair one-two in Kitten’s Joy (DRF)

Haskin’s Derby Trail: It’s all in the blood (Bloodhorse Blog)

Howe great caps big weekend for Motion, Team Valor (Courier Journal)

Works:

Consortium PMM- 5F- 1.01:22- B- 6/28

Battle Hardened- PMM- 5F- 1.01:77 B-11/28

Casual Trick- PMM- 4F- 47:33- B- 3/72

Souper Speedy- PMM- 3F- 39:88- B- 7/7

State of Play- TAM- 6F- 1.14:40- B- 2/3